HKU CONVOCATION HONG KONG 2030 FORUM

ON POPULATION:

Fertility Decline, Mobility and Diversity

by

Wong Siu-lun

Centre of Asian Studies

The University of Hong Kong

21 February 2004

HONG KONG’S DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND LABOUR NEEDS

Fertility decline — extremely low total fertility rate of 927 children per 1,000 women in 2001

Long life expectancy — projected to reach 82 for men and 88 for women in 2031

Aging — a quarter of the population expected to be aged 65 or above by 2031

Shrinking workforce — prime working age population declines

Rapid demographic transition — compressed in less than 50 years

Total Fertility Rates of Hong Kong and Selected Low Fertility Economies, 2000

Hong Kong 1,020Singapore 1,600Japan 1,340*Germany 1,360*Denmark 1,770Netherlands 1,720Finland 1,730Sweden 1,540United Kingdom 1,640Australia 1,750*

Note: * 1999 figureSource: Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong

Population Projections 2002-2031, p. 53.

Policy response in 2003 Formulated by task

force head by Chief Secretary

Not the specific responsibility of any bureau or department

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

— The One Way Permit Scheme— Training and Other Needs of New Arrivals— Education and Manpower Policy— Admission of Mainland Professionals and Talent— Investment Immigrants— Policies Impacting on Childbirth— Elderly Policy— Growing Transient Population: Foreign Domestic Helpers— Eligibility for Public Benefits— Portability of Benefits— Need for Regular Review

HONG KONG: A HUB FOR LABOUR MIGRATION

Hong Kong has long been a city of migrants Emigration of Chinese from Hong Kong began as soon as

the territory became a British colony in 1842 By 1939, over 6 million Chinese left Hong Kong to go to

every part of the world Main destinations: United States; Australia; Canada; South

America and West Indies; Peru & Cuba; Dutch Possessions; Strait Settlements; Hawaii & Mauritius; British North Borneo; South Africa (E. Sinn 1995 )

Hong Kong: key economic centre for the overseas Chinese

Intense traffic in people, remittances and information

INFLOW OF POPULATION

Illegal immigrants from the Chinese mainland — 150,089 in 1980; abolition of ‘touch base policy’; decreased to 12,170 in 1999.

Legal immigrants from the Chinese mainland — 150 a day or 55,000 per year

Skilled immigrants — about 16,700 foreign professional admitted each year from 1997 to 2001; only 268 mainland professionals admitted from 2001 to 2002.

Foreign domestic workers — 21,517 in 1982; 237,104 in 2002.

Imported workers — 1,200 admitted under supplementary labour scheme

Increased use of Hong Kong as transit port to other countries (Chin Kong 2003)

Effect of Migration on Population Projection

Dependency Ratio and Median Age of the Projected Population

(without Migration) of Hong Kong 2001-2016

Year 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Child

Dependency

Elderly

Dependency

Total

Dependency

266

141

407

234 (228)

158 (149)

392 (377)

212 (211)

167 (153)

379 (364)

194 (197)

173 (155)

366 (351)

195 (200)

216 (184)

412 (384)

Median Age 34 36.7 (37) 39.9 (39) 42.4 (40) 44.5 (41)

Note: Numbers shown in the brackets represent the values estimated by the Census and

Statistics Department based on existing immigration policy.

Source: Paul S F Yip & Joseph Lee (2000)

Mobility and Dynamism

Migration and entrepreneurship Inflow of Shanghai entrepreneurs to Hong

Kong in 1940s (Wong 1988) Small industrial entrepreneurs in 1970s and

1980s were mostly immigrants Decreased immigration and declining

entrepreneurship? SME in Japan: Regeneration and creation

of entrepreneurial society

Place of Birth of Entrepreneurs

Place Entrepreneurs

1978(%)

Population

1981(%)

Entrepreneurs

1987(%)

Hong Kong

Chinese Mainland

Other Areas

20.2

77.3

2.4

57.2

39.6

3.2

31.4

63.9

4.7

Total 100 100 100

Source: 1978 and 1987 SMI Surveys;

Hong Kong 1981 Census, Vol. 2, pp. 28-29

Diversity and Cosmopolitanism

2001 Population Census — only 5% non-ethnic Chinese This 5% comprised mainly of Filipinos, Indonesians and nat

ionals of Southeast Asian origin 95% ethnic Chinese — diverse migration experience Not quite multi-ethnic, but rather multi-cultural Linkages to overseas Chinese communities — to be streng

thened? Increased mobility — who is a Hong Konger? Citizenship — rights and obligations; tax revenue

Thank You