History of the FutureHistory of the Future

10: Apollo & Beyond10: Apollo & Beyond

Space Flight in LiteratureSpace Flight in Literature

Long historyLong history Early authors use metaphoricallyEarly authors use metaphorically We already saw Verne, Wells in 19We already saw Verne, Wells in 19thth

CenturyCentury Also in Stapledon & Things to ComeAlso in Stapledon & Things to Come

Rocket established by 1930sRocket established by 1930s Space flight becomes central with Space flight becomes central with

Genre SFGenre SF Hugo Gernsback, 1930Hugo Gernsback, 1930 Seizes imagination of readersSeizes imagination of readers

The “Space Opera”The “Space Opera”

Stories of interstellar or intergalactic Stories of interstellar or intergalactic adventureadventure Generally dealing with exciting warsGenerally dealing with exciting wars Popular from 1930sPopular from 1930s E.E. “Doc” Smith – the Skylak and Lensman seriesE.E. “Doc” Smith – the Skylak and Lensman series

Fades somewhat by late 40sFades somewhat by late 40s Authors seek more realistic/nuanced themesAuthors seek more realistic/nuanced themes Used lightheartedly or for childrenUsed lightheartedly or for children Revived with Star Wars, 1977Revived with Star Wars, 1977

Realistic Space FlightRealistic Space Flight

V2 Rocket – Germany, WWIIV2 Rocket – Germany, WWII More realistic stories appear in “Golden Age”More realistic stories appear in “Golden Age”

Heinlein, Clarke good at thisHeinlein, Clarke good at this Clarke “invents” geosynchronous comms satelliteClarke “invents” geosynchronous comms satellite

Heinlein, “The Man Who Sold the Moon”Heinlein, “The Man Who Sold the Moon” Moon landing by private enterpriseMoon landing by private enterprise Space as new frontierSpace as new frontier

Readers learn aboutReaders learn about Moon bases & Space StationsMoon bases & Space Stations Space SuitsSpace Suits Orbital mechanics, etc.Orbital mechanics, etc.

The RealityThe Reality Space race as Space race as

extension of cold warextension of cold war Soviets get first satellite Soviets get first satellite

(1957)(1957) First moon probe (1959)First moon probe (1959)

Gagarin becomes first Gagarin becomes first man in space (1961)man in space (1961) Unmanned moon landing Unmanned moon landing

(1966)(1966) First space station (1971)First space station (1971) First Venus lander (1975)First Venus lander (1975)

US response foundersUS response founders Rockets explodeRockets explode Political infightingPolitical infighting

Apollo ProgramApollo Program Moon drive launched by Kennedy, 1961Moon drive launched by Kennedy, 1961

Part of his aggressive challenge to SovietsPart of his aggressive challenge to Soviets Direct to moon strategy – diverges from Direct to moon strategy – diverges from

earlier ideas in search of quick resultsearlier ideas in search of quick results Apollo 11, July 1969Apollo 11, July 1969

Caps series of earlier flights & testsCaps series of earlier flights & tests Soviet rocket keeps explodingSoviet rocket keeps exploding

Interest drops off fastInterest drops off fast War, social unrest, urban riots are distractingWar, social unrest, urban riots are distracting Final 3 missions cancelledFinal 3 missions cancelled

Military Industrial ComplexMilitary Industrial Complex

Term coined by Eisenhower in farewell Term coined by Eisenhower in farewell speechspeech

Cold War gives government huge economic Cold War gives government huge economic rolerole

New high-tech defense industry grows upNew high-tech defense industry grows up Close ties between generals, firms, politiciansClose ties between generals, firms, politicians Cutting edge science and technologyCutting edge science and technology

Space program is extension of inSpace program is extension of in Technologies involvedTechnologies involved Procurement and project management strategiesProcurement and project management strategies Companies building componentsCompanies building components

Atlas MissilesAtlas Missiles

First ICMB (mentioned previously)First ICMB (mentioned previously) New concept: “Systems Engineering”New concept: “Systems Engineering”

Rapid construction of futuristic Rapid construction of futuristic technologiestechnologies

New project management techniquesNew project management techniques Organize huge teams from different Organize huge teams from different

firms on “blue sky” researchfirms on “blue sky” research Used as “booster stage” for early US Used as “booster stage” for early US

flightsflights Including John Glenn, 1962 – First US Including John Glenn, 1962 – First US

orbitorbit Over long time period – descendents Over long time period – descendents

used today!used today!

““Systems” ThinkingSystems” Thinking Surged with Cold WarSurged with Cold War

Establishment of “think tanks” like RAND Establishment of “think tanks” like RAND CorpCorp

Work includes strategy, first futurologyWork includes strategy, first futurology ElementsElements

““Game Theory”Game Theory” Operations Research (use in industry)Operations Research (use in industry) Computer models for prediction, forecastingComputer models for prediction, forecasting

Perceptions, hype exceed achievementPerceptions, hype exceed achievement

Application to Broader Application to Broader IssuesIssues

Systems Engineering as Universal ExpertiseSystems Engineering as Universal Expertise McNamara – takes from Ford to DODMcNamara – takes from Ford to DOD Tries to fight war by “watching the numbers”Tries to fight war by “watching the numbers”

Application to social problems, late 1960sApplication to social problems, late 1960s ““The techniques that are going to put man on The techniques that are going to put man on

the moon are exactly the techniques that we the moon are exactly the techniques that we are going to need to clean up our cities” – are going to need to clean up our cities” – Hubert Humphrey (VP), 1968Hubert Humphrey (VP), 1968

Aerospace contracts, think tanks offer servicesAerospace contracts, think tanks offer services Perceived crisis in urban areasPerceived crisis in urban areas Transportation, energy problemsTransportation, energy problems

Application to EnvironmentApplication to Environment ““World Systems Theory”World Systems Theory”

Computer model of entire ecosystem!Computer model of entire ecosystem! ““Limits to Growth” report, 1972Limits to Growth” report, 1972

Suggests crises of population, resources imminentSuggests crises of population, resources imminent Economic collapse within 100 yearsEconomic collapse within 100 years

One of many later charts produced in response to the 1972 report.

Manned Space Flight in Manned Space Flight in 1970s1970s

NASA Proposes the SF futureNASA Proposes the SF future Cheap, reusable “space truck”Cheap, reusable “space truck” to build space station and permanent moon baseto build space station and permanent moon base to fly to Marsto fly to Mars

Funding limited, political pressuresFunding limited, political pressures We get space shuttle (years late, hugely over We get space shuttle (years late, hugely over

budget)budget) And Sky Lab, made of Apollo leftoversAnd Sky Lab, made of Apollo leftovers

Unmanned probes do best scienceUnmanned probes do best science Viking lands on Mars in 1976Viking lands on Mars in 1976

Faced with thisFaced with this SF interest in realistic space flight SF interest in realistic space flight

diminishesdiminishes Real space programs too big, bureaucraticReal space programs too big, bureaucratic Political dimensions too obviousPolitical dimensions too obvious Little useful results, frontier feeling lackingLittle useful results, frontier feeling lacking

Some realistic treatments of MarsSome realistic treatments of Mars of which Man Plus is key exampleof which Man Plus is key example Kim Stanley Robinson “Mars” Trilogy, 1990sKim Stanley Robinson “Mars” Trilogy, 1990s

By 80s, some authors boosting SDIBy 80s, some authors boosting SDI Will talk about this laterWill talk about this later Manned space flight becomes Republican issue!Manned space flight becomes Republican issue!