History of Project Management publication · PMP, IPMA-D, Cert.APM History of Project Management publication “Lessons From the Past that Assist the Projects of Today to Shape the

© 2017 Mark Kozak-HollandRisk Management in Projects www.lessons-from-history.com

Workshop - Risk Management in Projects - Lessons from the Race to the South Pole, Trans-Antarctic Projects

Mark Kozak-Holland PhD, PMP, IPMA-D, Cert.APM

History of Project Management

publication

“Lessons From the Past that Assist the Projects of Today to Shape the World of Tomorrow”

www.lessons-from-history.com

"Better a live donkey than a dead lion."

Shackleton

http://www.lessons-from-history.com/

© 2017 Mark Kozak-Holland2 Risk Management in Projects www.lessons-from-history.com

Table of contents

1. Short history of Arctic and Antarctic Expeditions

2. Case study Amundsen/Scott and the South pole (1909)

© 2017 Mark Kozak-Holland

Previous expeditions - achieve the goal

▪ Reach the South Pole first)

▪ Make it there and back--alive

3 Risk Management in Projects www.lessons-from-history.com

South

Pole

▪ 1400 miles round trip

▪ Elevation 9,300 feet

▪ Desert


Scott and Shackleton’s Discovery Expedition (1901 – 1902) Dec 31, 1902 they reached 463 miles (857 km) from the Pole.

▪ They proceeded with difficultly

– inexperience with environment,

– poor choices and preparation

– assumption all obstacles overcome

with personal fortitude.

▪ Dogs used but no understanding

in handling them.

▪ Early British expeditions, food in

short supply, team underfed and

starving.

▪ Shackleton developed scurvy &

Dr. Wilson snow blindness.



Amundsen’s expedition to the Northwest Passage (1903-1906). Preparation is extensive and takes a very agile approach.


© 2017 Mark Kozak-Holland6 Risk Management in Projects www.lessons-from-history.com 6/11/2019

Amundsen’s was the first to successfully navigate the Northwest passage between 1903-05

▪ His approach based on speed & agility.

The 70-foot fishing boat with shallow

draft could navigate the rocks and ice.

▪ He interacted with Native Americans and

learned important skills.

▪ Highly regarded for his organization and

planning skills & as an explorer.


Shackleton’s British Antarctic Expedition (1907–1909)"Better a live donkey than a dead lion."

▪ Scott's poor success with

dogs 1901–1904 expedition,

– Shackleton used Manchurian

ponies unsuccessfully

▪ Nearly reached goal 160km

(100 miles) of the Pole

▪ To reach it meant death – 4

men lucky to return alive.

▪ Shackleton leadership

prowess pulling back when

people would die,

– pulling them together in grim

situation



Table of contents

1. Short history of Arctic and Antarctic Expeditions

2. Case study Amundsen/Scott and the South pole (1909)


Exercise – Its 1909 & you are visiting each expedition camp prior to the expedition

▪ You are from the future and there to advise the 2 leaders on

their expeditions, without revealing the outcome!


Amundsen Scott


Planned routes to the South Pole by Scott and Amundsen

▪ 700 miles each way

▪ Retrace footsteps back from

pole

▪ Amundsen’s route slightly

shorter but has more

unknowns



Objectives

▪ To be the first party to

reach the South Pole

▪ To be the first party to reach the

South Pole (main aim) AND

▪ A large & wide ranging program

of scientific measurements,

experimentation and discovery

▪ Scott incorporates Evan’s

expedition (explore King Edward

VII Land) because it has funding


Amundsen Scott


▪ Departure party - 16 dogs, 2 motor

sledges (1st time), 10 sledges, 16 + 4

men - Dog teams to meet the polar

party (reduced men) at 82.30S

Approaches: Transportation and teams

▪ Departure party - 52 dogs, 4

sledges, 5 men


"The English have loudly and openly told the world that ski and dogs are

unusable in these regions and that fur clothes are rubbish. We will see — we will

see." Roald Amundsen

Amundsen Scott


Approaches: equipment (clothing), food

▪ Large quantities of dried

meat (pemmican)

▪ Biscuits, sugar and butter,

with hot tea or cocoa to

drink

▪ Daily Ration

– Biscuits (40 biscuits): 380 g

– Pemmican: 350 g

– Chocolate: 40 g

– Milk powder: 60 g


Amundsen Scott


Approaches: shelter, men, equipment (fuel)

▪ Tents

▪ 17 men

▪ Generalists

▪ Igloos

▪ 5 men

▪ Each a specialist


Amundsen Scott



Exercise – complete a risk assessment to present to EACH expedition leader prior to preparation period

▪ Project constraints

1. Distance and route

2. Environment, weather, temperature

3. Equipment and supplies

4. Timeframe

▪ Complete the following:

1. Evaluate & prioritize the risks

2. Identify any “project killing” risks

3. Options & best approach to tackle the

risks

▪ Hints

– Pay close attention to Internal risks

• Expedition objectives

• Approach, methods

• Experience, culture



Amundsen reaches the South Pole on December 16, 1911



Scott reaches the South Pole on January 16, 1912



In 1906 Amundsen proactively interacted with the Inuits and creates a conducive and friendly environment for an exchange

▪ The sharing of

local “tacit”

knowledge with

the expedition is

invaluable.



Effective transfer & sharing of knowledge teaches the Norwegians survival skills for the polar regions

▪ Transfer

– Uncover knowledge, interpret,

transfer, transform & adapt it

– Review and improve practices

– Develop innovative solutions

with new technologies

▪ Sharing

– Create a conducive and

friendly environment for an

exchange of knowledge

– Share “local” tacit knowledge &

convert it to useful knowledge



On completing the passage Amundsen travels 1300 kms to Eagle city, Alaska to telegraph the news to Norway



In 1910 Amundsen used the knowledge & experience (Northwest passage) in preparation and managing risks

▪ He studied Shackleton's attempt in 1907

▪ He ensured his crew possessed personalities suitable to long polar voyages.

▪ He told his men his plans in advance.

▪ He landed further along the Ross Ice Shelf and risked setting up base camp on the ice.

▪ He anticipated there were alternative routes to the Polar Plateau.

▪ He was firm but fair, crew members affectionately referred to him as "the chief."


Amundsen set up Framheim - base camp were he and his prepared for the expedition

▪ Tents erected for dogs and storage

▪ Under the ice series of rooms and

connecting passages were dug out

– Comfortable conditions for arranging,

adjusting & packing equipment

▪ Sledges & equipment boxes were honed to

cut weight without losing strength.

– Provisions repacked to save space, sausage-

shaped linen bags sewn to pack milk powder

in holes between tins.

▪ Sunglasses, footwear & ski bindings

experimented on individually chosen for

greatest comfort and efficiency.

▪ Steam bath



Amundsen was confident that skis and dogs used in the Arctic experience were suitable for the Antarctic

▪ He handpicked 4 men

– (skiing champion & two expert dog-drivers) & 50 dogs

▪ He swiftly progressed across the Polar Plateau.

▪ Use of high-quality sled dogs significant


In summary Amundsen won the South Pole race because of good risk management and that

▪ He had clear objectives

▪ He stayed with proven and tested transportation technology (skis dogs) and refined these.

▪ He took calculated risks setting up base camp on the ice based on experience and cut the journey down.

▪ He handpicked a well balanced team of individual skills to support the technology.

▪ He relied on his experience to carry the project through.

▪ He did manage risks


Scott’s failure to get to the South Pole first was down to poor risk management and ambiguous objectives

▪ The project had mixed vision and objectives

– expedition - race to the pole, or

– extensive scientific study (geological and zoological)?

▪ On 1 Nov 1911, 16 men left base camp with support parties, motor sledges, dogs & ponies

▪ Many risks not considered


With ponies, motor sledges, dogs, and men parties working hard, the transportation progressed rapidly at first

▪ Motor sledges soon abandoned due to thin ice

▪ Ponies were unsuitable

▪ Scott chose the polar team 150 miles

from the goal with an extra 5th man

– impacted rations & fuel.

▪ Failure to rendezvous with 2 dog teams

– Scott undervalued and under invested in the use of dogs.



On 17 January 1912, they arrived at the Pole 33 days after Amundsen and were dejected on not being first

▪ The expedition goes into downward spiral and ends in tragic failure

▪ Men pulled the sledges with man-harnesses

▪ Suffering from starvation, scurvy & hypothermia men awaited death confined by a swirling blizzard.

▪ They froze to death only 11 miles from “one ton” cache of food


Analysis of situation - Project turns into a crisis situation

▪ Crises are the manifestation of an unexpected risk that develops into a

decisive period of acute difficulty (Fink, 1986).

▪ Project crisis:

– A high risk, low probability manifestation of a risk that demands for swift

actions and threatens the survival of the project, by dismantling the internal

and external structures, or by affecting the legitimacy of the project.


ProjectMgmtPlan

Target

Adjusted Project Trajectory Result

TimeCrisis


Lesson - starting a project without a clear vision & strategy can be the difference between project success and failure

▪ He risked untested transportation technology in motor sledges, and ponies

▪ He failed to integrate transportation approaches.

▪ He didn’t understand or master the use of dog team.

▪ He ordered dog teams back to base camp taking the one lifeline.

▪ He allowed paying guests to be part of the expedition (looking after ponies).

▪ He chose his team too late, miscalculated planned resources with team numbers.

▪ He saw men pulling sledges as an alternative.

▪ He managed risks poorly


Final words

▪ Certainly dog driving is the most terrible work one

has to face in this sort of business.

▪ I maintain that our arrangements for returning

were quite adequate, and that no one in the world

would have expected the temperatures and

surfaces which we encountered at this time of the

year.

– Robert Falcon Scott

▪ "The English have loudly and openly told the

world that ski and dogs are unusable in these

regions and that fur clothes are rubbish. We will

see — we will see."

▪ "Adventure is just bad planning."

– Roald Amundsen



Lesson – dealing with a crisis during a project can be helped by a good risk plan

▪ Plan for a crisis situation

– Why not? Decisive period of acute difficulty

– Develop several scenarios

– Create RM plan around these

▪ Crisis lifecycle five phases:

1. Signal detection,

2. Preparation/prevention,

3. Containment/Damage

limitation,

4. Recovery and

5. Learning.

32 Risk Management in Projects www.lessons-from-history.com 6/11/2019


In some missions/expeditions like Apollo the flight teams prepared for a crisis or disaster time and time again

▪ No matter how good you are, failure

is always an option

▪ Exercises, simulations, & extensive

training all went into achieving the

goal of “tough and competent.”

▪ Essential in effective crisis

management.

▪ Prepare for different eventualities

▪ Maintain high level of readiness, so

you and your team are in the best

possible position to handle a crisis.



Thanks!

Mark Kozak-Holland

[email protected]

http://ca.linked.com/in/markkozakholland

www.lessons-from-history.com

Twitter @LessonsfromHist

You tube – ProjectLessons

Documents

History of Project Management publication · PMP, IPMA-D, Cert.APM History of Project Management publication “Lessons From the Past that Assist the Projects of Today to Shape the