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DHP P244: Modern Terrorism & Counterterrorism

Dr. James J.F. Forest Visiting Professor

History & Ideologies of Modern Terrorism

AdminNotes•  Feb.27:GraemeWoodbookdiscussion(arrangedbyDean

Stavridis)onTheWayoftheStrangers:EncounterswiththeIslamicState–  GetyourfreecopyofbookinGinnLibrary–  ClasswillmeetinASEANAuditorium;comepreparedtoaskquesIons

aboutWood’sanalysis

•  WillMcCantsbookisnowop#onalreading•  Pleasealsoreadthefollowing(seeTrunkwebsite):

–  WillMcCants’arIcleontheoriginsofAbuBakral-Baghdadi–  Wood’sarIcle“WhatISISReallyWants”–  MehdiHasan’scrIIqueofWood’sanalysis–  PeVerNesseretal“JihadiTerrorisminEurope”

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LessonsfromHistory

•  Terrorismisnotarecentphenomenon.–  Whyisitimportanttounderstandamuchlongerviewofterrorism

(200+years)?–  Whatcanwelearnfromstudyingthishistory?

•  Terrorismcomesinavarietyofshapesandsizes,contexts,actorsandimpacts.–  Inyourreadingassignments,whathistoricaleventsorexamplesof

terrorismhavemadethemostimpressiononyouthusfar?Why?–  InwhichcountrieshaveweseenthemostterroristacIvity?

EarlierHistoryEvolu#onofTerrorism•  Zealots–Sicarri(1stCentury)Israel,murderRomansinpublic•  Shia“Assassins”(11th&12thCentury)Syria,Iran,murdercrusaders•  September1793:Jacobins,CommiVeeofGeneralSecurity–rootout

"enemiesoftherevoluIon”(andofenkillthemviaguilloIne);MaximilienRobespierre:"terrorisnothingotherthanjusIce,prompt,severe,inflexible.”

EarlyTerrorismintheU.S.•  SonsofLibertytarandfeatherloyalists,whofledtoCanada•  KluKluxKlan:Confederate“ghosts”inImidaIngSouthernblacks,Unionists,

teachers;overthrowReconstrucIon,resistCivilRightsActs;arson,beaIng,lynching,murder;massarrests1871;resurgence1920sthru1960s;1969FederalHateCrimeslaw

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MoreRecentU.S.History•  From1970to2004,morethan96%ofmorethan16,000terrorist

aVacksweredirectedatnon-U.S.targets.—LaFree,Ming-Yang&Crenshaw(ReadingAssignment)

•  ButtheU.S.hashaditsshareofterrorism...–  Inthe1970s,therewere50to60terroristbombingsayearinthe

UnitedStates,“avolumeofterroristacIvitythatwouldraVlethecountrytoday.”(BrianJenkins,2016)

–  Planeswerehijacked,1960s-70s–  AbombtorethroughtheSenatesideoftheU.S.Capitolbuildingin

1983.–  TerroristsaVackedtheWorldTradeCenterin1993–  168peoplewerekilledintheOklahomaCitybombing1995

•  September11,2001:Wasthisisa“new”kindofterrorism?—Jenkins,Hoffman,Crenshaw

Rapaport’sHistoricalAnalysis

Waves covering roughly 130 years of terrorism history –  Anarchist 1880s-1920s–  Anti-Colonial/Decolonization 1920s-1960s–  New Left Wave/Leftist anti-Western sentiment

1960s-1990s–  Religious Inspiration 1990s-present

Themes to consider for each wave: 1.  Doctrines of terror 2.  Technology (especially for communication/propaganda) 3.  Avenues of funding and support 4.  Organizations can transcend waves (e.g. IRA, ETA, PLO)

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Anarchists“Wave”•  TsarAlexanderII–freeserfs1861,overpromises,under-delivers•  “Propagandaofthedeed”-usespectacularactsofviolencetopolarize

socieIesandthussetthestageforrevoluIon•  Between1894and1901,fiveleaderswereassassinatedbyanarchistsin

EuropeandtheU.S.

AnI-Colonial“Wave”Majorguidingprinciples,doctrines:•  BringinternaIonalaVenIontoanI-colonialgrievances•  TarnishpresIgeofBriIsh,French“occupying”forces•  Demoralizesecurityforces,non-indigenouspopulaIon•  UndermineBriIshorFrenchresolvetoremain•  AVriIonstrategy;provocaIonstrategy;etal.

Examples:•  Israel,Irgun,Lehi/SternGang:July1946aVackonKingDavidHotel,

Jerusalem(Military&govt.offices,2ndfloor):91killed,45injured•  Algeria,FLN:massivedeploymentofFrenchtroopshasliVleeffect;some

governmenteffortscounterproducIve(torture,execuIons,repression);militaryvictories,poliIcaldefeat

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Frantz Fanon •  Wretched of the Earth (1961): Western powers have

dehumanized non-Western people by destroying their cultures and replacing them with Western values

•  The masses suffer a perpetual identity crisis, forced to deny their heritage. They can follow only one course of action: guerilla warfare revolution (achieving freedom is inherently violent)

•  Terrorism had a specific purpose: to terrorize Westerners and their followers into submission

•  Urban terror was to create mayhem, and all terrorism was to be excessively brutal to communicate fear.

Fanon’s guerrilla model thus uses terrorism as a strategy and deviates from typical guerrillas who try to build a military force

PalesInianTerrorism

•  TranscendsAnI-Colonial,Lef-WingandReligious“waves”•  Mainlysecular/naIonalist(PLO,PFLP,DFLP,PHLP-GC,etc.)unIlIslamist

extremismrises1980s-90s•  Hugerefugeecampspost-1948inLebanon,Jordan,Syria•  AVacksbeginaferfailureofArabstatestomilitarilydefeatIsrael•  Flurryofhijackings,1968thrulate1970s•  MunichOlympics,1972(vicIms,targets,perpetrators,outcomes?)•  PLOmovesHQtosouthernLebanon,Israelinvades,1982(Iranpost-1979

beginstoarm,fund,trainShiamili#asIJO,Hizballah)•  Arafat’sUNspeech,specialobserverstatus,86relaIons(72Israel)•  TerroristtrainingcampsinLibya,BekaahValley(Lebanon),etc.•  CorrupIon,perceivedweaknessamongPLO,al-FatahleadstoriseofPIJ,

Hamas,al-AqsaMartyrs,otherIslamistterroristgroups

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Break

InfluenIalRevoluIonaries

MaoTse-Tung:Inferiorforcescandefeatthemorepowerful;“People’sWar”long-term,takeadvantagewhencondiIonsareright;overcomesuperiorforces

CheGuevara:Asmalldedicatedcadreof

guerillafighterscancreatethecondiIonsforpopularrevoluIon(Vanguard);noneedtowait

CarlosMarighella:Urbanviolencewill

“systemaIcallyinflictdamageontheauthoriIes…(and)thepeoplewhoexercisepower”(ruralinsurrecIonistooeasyforgovernmenttoignore);The basis of revolution is violence; Provide practical guides for terrorism

How are these ideas reflected by al Qaida, Islamist State, et al?

By 1970, most left-wing groups and ethno-nationalist groups had adopted some combination of these ideas

Focus is on systemic, fundamental change

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Lef-WingTerrorism“Wave”

•  InfluencedbythewriIngsofrevoluIonariesinothercountries(globalizedideologicalresonance)–  DomesIc,Marxist,somestatesupport–  Armedviolenceagainstthecapitaliststate–  EmphasisonprovocaIon–  VanguardwilllaunchandinspireacommunistrevoluIonbyforce

•  Prominentroleofacademics,intellectualelites–  SenderoLuminoso:UniversityofSanCristobaldeHuamanga(Abimael

Guzman)–  RedBrigades:UniversityofTrento(RenatoCurcio,MaraCagol)–  RedArmyFacIon:FreeUniversityofBerlin(AndreasBaader,Ulrike

Meinhof)–  17November:AthensPolytechnic–  WeatherUnderground:variousU.S.colleges&universiIes

Revolutionary Groups •  Action Directe (France) •  Sendero Luminoso (Peru) •  17 November (Greece) •  Weather Underground (United States) •  Tupamaros (Uruguay) •  Japanese Red Army •  Red Army Faction (Germany) •  Red Brigades (Italy) •  Mujahedin-e-Khalq (Iran) •  Popular Revolutionary Army (Mexico) •  Nepal Insurgents (Maoists) •  United Freedom Front (United States) •  25 April Movement (Portugal) •  Revolutionary Movement of Tupac Amaru (Peru) •  Irish Nationalist Liberation Army (IRSP militants) •  Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Colombia) •  May 19 Communist Organization (United States) •  Evan Mecham Eco-Terrorist International Conspiracy (United States) •  Others . . .

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Common Themes

Common Targets •  Symbolic targets •  Policemen •  Lawyers, Judges •  University professors •  Politicians •  Union leaders, Industrialists •  Military/security facilities

Common Tactics •  Armed robberies, Bombings •  Operations against the military

(snipers, planting mines, etc.) •  Kidnapping (for attention and

coercive bargaining) •  Selective assassination •  Indiscriminate attacks in public

places

Prominentroleofacademics,intellectualelites•  SenderoLuminoso:UniversityofSanCristobaldeHuamanga(AbimaelGuzman)•  RedBrigades:UniversityofTrento(RenatoCurcio,MaraCagol)•  RedArmyFacIon:FreeUniversityofBerlin(AndreasBaader,UlrikeMeinhof)•  17November:AthensPolytechnic•  WeatherUnderground:variousU.S.colleges&universiIes

ReasonsforLWGroups’Decline

•  IntellectualeliteswhocontrolledthemovementgotolderandlosttheirabilitytoconnectwithincreasinglyyoungerstudentacIvistaudiences.

•  ImpaIentleaders,membersledtomistakes,counterproducIveviolence

•  AlienaIonoftargetaudiences(insteadofmobilizaIon)underminedpoliIcalobjecIves

•  Lef-wingmovementsbecamemorespecific,focusingnotonlyoncertainpoliIcalbehavior,butonparIcularcauses(e.g.,ELF,ALF,MonkeyWrenchGang–spikingtrees,arsona[acks,lumbermills,etc.)

•  GovernmentacIonsandimprovedpolicetacIcscertainlycontributedtothedeclineoflef-wingterrorismintheU.S.andEurope

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Religious“Wave”•  Ideologiesaresupremacist(believersassumesuperiorityovernon-

believers)&absoluIst(youarewithusoryouareanunbelieveroranenemy“aninfidel,anapostate”)

•  “Godisonourside–weareacIngonthedesiresofadiety”(audienceisthusnotnecessarilyhuman;“weareunconstrainedbyman’slaws”);rewardsintheaferlife

•  ComparisonswithLef-Wingwaveofterrorism?–  Whoisinspiringwhom,andtowardwhatgoals?–  Whoarethemostprominentideologicalinnovators?Whatare

theircredenIals/sourcesofinfluence?–  What,ifanything,doesthedeclineoflef-wingterrorismsuggest

aboutthefutureofreligiousterrorism?

•  Lotsofexamplesworldwide(Lesson5,Feb.22:IntersecIonsofReligionandPoliIcalViolence)

ChangesintechnologiesWhattechnologicalorotherinnova#onshaveweseenamongterroristsoverthelast100years?

•  CommunicaIons:telegraph,newspapers,globaltelevision,cellphones,DVDsandtheInternet(blogs,videos,TwiVer,etc.)

•  Weapons:IncreasingsophisIcaIonofIEDs,withdigitalImers,radarguns;suicideaVacks“ulImatesmartbomb”;WeaponsofMassDisrupIon/DestrucIon;cyber(?)

•  TransportaIon:Railroads,Airplanes(alsoforhijackings);globalshippingservices(FedEx,UPS)

What do these changes and evolving trends suggest for the future? What new kinds of technologies might become central to the world of terrorism in the future?

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ChangesinFinancingTerrorism

•  Bankrobberies•  ExtorIon•  Kidnappingforransom•  Statesponsorship(who,when,why?)•  ChariIes•  Diaspora•  Traffickinginweapons,drugs,counterfeitgoods•  Internetfundraising,creditcardfraud,IDthef

What do these changes and evolving trends suggest for the future of terrorist financing? What new financing opportunities might we see in 10-20 years?

Re-Cap•  MostterroristorganizaIonsfail,andfailratherquickly

(AccordingtoRapoport,90%failwithin1-2years)

•  StudyingthedynamicsandhistoriesofterroristorganizaIonscanyieldinsightsonwhysomehavemulI-generaIonaltrajectories

•  SometerroristorganizaIonshavelearnedtoadaptandsurvive

•  Eachterroristgroup’shistoricaltrajectoryisunique,buttherearelessonsthatcaninformcounterterrorismefforts

•  Thereismuchwecanlearnabouttoday’sterrorism(andthefuture)fromstudyingitshistoricalevoluIon–parIcularlythecontextsandideologicalinnovaIonsthatfueledthatevoluIon

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Discussion•  How/whyhaveweseenan“internaIonalizaIonofterrorism?”

•  Howdothe“tradiIonal”terroristmovementsofthepastcomparetomodern-dayreligiousterroristmovements?

•  WhatdoterroristgroupmanualstellusaboutinnovaIonsandevoluIonintacIcs,strategy,etc.?

–  HandbookforVolunteersoftheIrishRepublicanArmy:NotesonGuerillaWarfare(1956).

–  Ernesto“Che”Guevara,“Chapter1:GeneralPrinciplesofGuerillaWarfare,”inGuerillaWarfare(1961).

–  CarlosMarighella,Mini-ManualoftheUrbanGuerrilla(1969).–  RedArmyFacIon,TheUrbanGuerillaConcept(1971).

Discussion•  WhatimpactdidwarsinSoutheastAsia(e.g.,Korea,Vietnam)haveon

terrorism,andwhere?

•  WhatimpactdidtheformaIonofthestateofIsraelhaveonterrorism?

•  Whatdoesthisreviewofhistorynottellusaboutterrorismthatweshouldknow,inordertoimproveourcounterterrorismstrategies?

•  WhydidRAFandPLOtraintogetherduringthe1970s-80s?

•  WhydidQaddafiprovidetrainingcampsandpersonnelinLibya?

•  HowdoesthishistoricalreviewofterrorismhelpusunderstandamodernterroristaVack,likeParislastNovember?

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ResearchPaperCaseStudiesWhathavewelearnedaboutterrorismfrom:•  Ireland/N.Ireland(M.Collins/E.deValeraIRA/PIRA/CIRA/RIRA)•  Israel(M.Begin,Lehi,Irgun,SternGang)

•  PalesIne(Y.ArafatPLO/BlackSept.,G.HabashPFLP,S.YassinHamas)

•  SouthAfrica(N.Mandela,UmkhontoweSizwe)

Whathavewelearnedaboutterrorismfrom:

•  France •  Germany •  Italy •  Spain •  Russia •  U.S.

•  Colombia •  Peru •  Nigeria •  Libya •  Somalia •  Uganda

•  Afghanistan •  Indonesia •  Pakistan •  India •  China •  Sri Lanka

•  Egypt •  Algeria •  Iraq •  Syria •  Turkey •  Lebanon

ExamQuesIonIdeasExamplesofpotenIalfinalexamquesIons:

•  HistorysuggeststerroristsalmostneversucceedinachievingtheirobjecIves.Andyet,historyalsosuggeststerrorismwillbepartofourlong-termfuture.Why?

•  Explainwhatwecanlearnabouttheriseanddeclineofthelef-wingwaveofterrorismthathelpsuspredictthefutureevoluIonofthecurrentreligiouswave.

•  DescribesomeuniquechallengesfacedbyademocraIcgovernmentwhenrespondingtoreligiousterrorism.

•  WhyhaveweseensuchadramaIcevoluIonofsuicidebombingsworldwideoverthepast35years?

•  Ifcontemporaryterrorismdoescomeandgoinwaves,whatwillthenextwavebe,andwhy?

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QuesIons?