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Historic trends in N and S deposition in the UK1800 to present
Dragosits, U1, Tomlinson, S.J.1, Carnell, E.J.1, Dore, A.J.1, Misselbrook, T.H.2 & Tipping, E.3
1 NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB2 Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB 3 NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP
Introduction – Drivers of change in N & S
Natural terrestrialecosystems
Agriculturalecosystems
Erosion &Leaching
Rivers Lakes Groundwater
Atmospheric N Deposition
Key tasks• Historic emissions – quantify sources, source
data & model spatial distribution• Model time series of emissions & deposition• UK focus & European background• Analyse & interpret data• Publish results & collaborate on further work• Publish data
Present Day
• First population census data• Industrial Revolution
• Domestic coal use peak• Board of Agriculture established
• Large scale Haber-Bosch processing commences
• Increase in motor vehicles
Peak in sulphur emissions
• Peak NOx & NH3 emissions• Sulphur reducing
1950
1970
1990
20101900
1800
NERC Long-term large-scale (LTLS)
200+ years of history – emission sources
View of Leeds. Overlooking Kirkstall Road (Cohen & Ruston (1912).
Gas PhaseCO2, CO, NOx,
SO2, HCN, NH3…
Aerosol PhaseOrg, NO3
-, NH4+,
SO42-, Cl-
Fuels
Wood
Peat
Coal
low-temperature domestic combustion, traditional burning practices/fuels
Output: emission per kg fuel
Great Smog of 1952
Pig density
London horse buses
Town gas
19th century livestock weigh bridges
DUKES historical power station data
Seabird guano industry
Pig density (county level)
Agricultural ammonia emissions
2010
Agricultural NH3 Emissions
kg NH3N ha-1 yr-1
≤ 10
> 10 - 100
> 100 - 500
> 500 - 1,000
> 1,000
Historic emission trends 1800-2010
SOx emissions (kt SO2)combustion of fossil fuels (industry, power generation)
NOy emissions (kt NO2) combustion of fossil fuels (mainly industry, transport)
SO2 important for atmospheric chemistry/deposition processes
NHx emissions (kt NH3)agriculture (livestock manures, fertiliser application)waste processing (composting, anaerobic digestion, sewage, etc.)
2016
2016
2016
European background & deposition modelling
Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model
Creating boundary conditions for a 5km FRAME-UK simulation
µg m-3
SO4
18001800 1900
1950 1970
1990 2010
Total nitrogen deposition 1800-2030
Grid square average deposition
Oxidised N deposition 1800-2030Industrial RevolutionIncrease in human population, domestic burning, mining, etc.
Further (smaller) increases + transport; wars
Further increase in transport & industry, peak NOx
Large power stations, road transport
International & national legislation
Main sources:• Combustion• Motorised
transport• Industry
Grid square average deposition
Reduced N deposition 1800-2030
Industrial RevolutionIncrease in human population, livestock, domestic burning, etc.
Further (smaller) increases + transport; wars
Further agricultural intensification, transport & industry, peak NH3
fertiliser input increasing & associated agricultural production
Small decrease in NH3 (mainly fewer animals, less fertiliser applied, some mitigation, e.g. IED)
Main source:Agriculture (livestock & fertilisers)
Grid square average deposition
Habitat-specific N deposition 1800-2030
Grid square average deposition
You’ll have to wait until this afternoon …
Components of N Deposition (1970)
Grid square average deposition estimates
(i.e. taking account of land cover)
NOyWet Deposition
NOyDry Deposition
NHxWet Deposition
NHxDry Deposition
Total N Deposition
N Deposition
kg N ha-1 yr-1
≤ 2.5
> 2.5 - 5
> 5 - 10
> 10 - 15
> 15 - 25
> 25
Oxidised nitrogen Reduced nitrogen
Temporal trends in N deposition 1800-2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
ktN
ye
ar-1 Total N
Reduced N
Oxidised N
Analysis of N deposition components
0
100
200
300
400
500
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
kt N
ye
ar-1
NHx total NOy total N total
Oxidised/reduced N deposition 1800-2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
kt N
ye
ar-1
N total N wet N dry
Wet/Dry N deposition 1800-2030
0
50
100
150
1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
kt N
yea
r-1
NHx dry NOy dry NHx wet NOy wet
Components of N deposition (wet NOx, dry NOx, wet NHx, dry NHx)
Sulphur deposition maps 1800-2030
Grid square average deposition
You’ll have to wait until this afternoon …
Comparison with measurement-based data
CBED model, R. Smith et al.,
CEH Edinburgh
Conclusions
• N & S deposition increased hugely during 19/20th
centuries
• S deposition – emission reductions a big policy success!
• Recent considerable decreases (since ~1990) in total N
deposition mainly due to NOx emission reductions
following international legislation (e.g. combustion plants,
catalytic converters). Partial success story, in progress.
• Reduced N (ammonia) now largest source of N
deposition, largely unchanged & predicted to remain stable
• Changing spatial patterns and composition of N deposition
Further work
Deposition & concentration data will enable a wealth of
assessments of cumulative atmospheric N and S inputs and
their impacts, on habitats and species as well as on human
health.
Next steps:
• Continue analysis and interpretation
• Initial peer-review publications (in prep)
• Further collaborations on request
• Publication of datasets (2-yr grace period to Dec-2017)
Acknowledgements
Online datasets:
Vision of Britain, Edina Agricultural Census, Defra UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Contributions:
David Simpson (Norwegian Meteorological Institute & Chalmers University of Technology)
Maciej Kryza (University of Wroclaw)