Historic and current Historic and current constraints on the constraints on the development of the development of the

Scottish aquaculture Scottish aquaculture industryindustry

www.hambreyconsulting.co.uk

AKA AKA : What size could or : What size could or should the Scottish should the Scottish

Aquaculture Industry be Aquaculture Industry be – and what’s stopping it? – and what’s stopping it?

Existing ConstraintsExisting Constraints

Physical ?Physical ? Market ?Market ? Regulatory?Regulatory? Planning? Planning?

Finance?Finance? Designations?Designations?Skills?Skills? Other ? Other ?

Infrastructure?Infrastructure? Public Opinion?Public Opinion?

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000A

nn

ua

l p

rod

uc

tio

n (

t)

NorwayChileUnited KingdomCanadaAustraliaFaroe IslandsIreland

Physical ConstraintsPhysical Constraints

Does topography and geography limit:Does topography and geography limit:

A) farm sizes A) farm sizes B) Total productionB) Total production

Production Unit Size - proportional trends

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

% p

rod

uct

ion

per

un

it s

ize

>100 t100 - 500 t500 - 1000 t<1000 t

Site AvailabilitySite Availability

How many more sites are available, How many more sites are available, capable to adequately assimilating (and capable to adequately assimilating (and modelling) large biomasses?modelling) large biomasses?

Underused sites?Underused sites?

Shellfish shortages.Shellfish shortages.

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Adequate road, rail linkagesAdequate road, rail linkages

Proximity of feed plantsProximity of feed plants

Maritime InfrastructureMaritime Infrastructure

Feed deliveriesFeed deliveries

Well-boat harvestingWell-boat harvesting

Market ConstraintsMarket Constraints

Does the market dictate total production?Does the market dictate total production?

Trend in Global Atlantic Salmon Production and Unit Value

0

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

1,600,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

An

nu

al P

rod

uct

ion

(t)

2.00

4.00

6.00

Un

it V

alu

e (U

S$

/ kg

)

Total Global Production (tonnes) Average Global Price ($/Kg)0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

To

tal P

rod

uct

ion

(t)

& T

ota

l Rev

enu

e (U

S$)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Pri

ce (

US

$/K

g) Scottish

Revnue(US$)

ScottishProduction(t)

ScottishPrice($/Kg)

Regulatory ConstraintsRegulatory Constraints

Limits on farm sizeLimits on farm size

Autodepomod IIAutodepomod II

Medicinal licensingMedicinal licensing

Overall availabilityOverall availability

Contributes to limit cage Contributes to limit cage sizesize

Recent progress Recent progress (deltametherin)(deltametherin)

Planning ConstraintsPlanning Constraints

UncertaintyUncertainty

DelayDelay

Direct Cost of ApplicationsDirect Cost of Applications

Indirect cost of ApplicationsIndirect cost of Applications

FlexibilityFlexibility

Role of statutory consultationRole of statutory consultation

Role of public consultationRole of public consultation

DesignationsDesignations

Natura 2000 – SPAs & SACsNatura 2000 – SPAs & SACs

National Scenic AreasNational Scenic Areas

SSSIsSSSIs

BAP SpeciesBAP Species

DesignationsDesignations

Around 1/3 of salmon farms are in NSAsAround 1/3 of salmon farms are in NSAs

Around 58% in Highland RegionAround 58% in Highland Region

Around ¼ of farms take place adjacent to BAP species or Around ¼ of farms take place adjacent to BAP species or habitatshabitats

Less than 10% of farms are in or adjacent to Natura 2000 Less than 10% of farms are in or adjacent to Natura 2000 sitessites

Highland region also has the highest overlap (15%).Highland region also has the highest overlap (15%).

Has the concentration of designations Has the concentration of designations shaped the industry development?shaped the industry development?

Regional Proportion of Scottish Salmon Production

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

07

% o

f o

ve

rall

Pro

du

cti

on

NWOrkneyShetlandSWWI

Any other constraints?Any other constraints?

Locational guidelines?Locational guidelines? Availability of finance?Availability of finance? Skilled workforce?Skilled workforce? Public perception?Public perception? Disease (ASP in Shellfish – Disease (ASP in Shellfish –

firebreaks?)firebreaks?) Raw materials? Feed / smolt supply?Raw materials? Feed / smolt supply? Barriers to new entrantsBarriers to new entrants

Prioritisation of Prioritisation of ConstraintsConstraints

MarketMarket

PhysicalPhysical

Site availabilitySite availability

InfrastructureInfrastructure

RegulatoryRegulatory

PlanningPlanning

DesignationsDesignations