Understanding the Military

Impact of Technological Development on Defense Planning in East AsiaRyo Hinata-Yamaguchi, PhDThe views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or viewpoints of any governments or organizations.

New Phase in East Asian SecurityUpgrades to the next generation of military hardware Speed, range, firepower, power projection, maneuverability, precision, presence, sustainability, etc.Platforms: Aircraft/vessels/vehicles (manned/unmanned), ISR, networks, robotics, strategic weapons, etc.States must think about security in multiple dimensionsWider range of instruments/options to fight wars (small/large actors)Wider range of high-tech tools available to each combatantDiversification of capabilities/battlespace, and operationsIncreased sophistication in management of the military

Military Modernization in East AsiaMilitary modernization reflects industrial capacityR&D, access to technologyMaturing defense industriesImport, imitate, innovatePolitical-economic motivesSelf-reliancePrestige and prideExport opportunities

RiskEnablersMilitary Modernization (New Hardware) in East AsiaHow new technologies are being, or will be usedPower projectionBallistic missile defenseCommand and ControlAmphibious capabilitiesCyber/electronic capabilitiesInformation systemsOuter-space General themesIncrease effective and efficiency for operationsDeterrence, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissanceQuick, precise warfare*Particular technologies are made for particular purposes

Military Modernization (Upgrades) in East AsiaMilitary modernization also taking place in less obvious waysIncremental upgradesCommand and controlCommunication devicesNavigational instrumentsOperation instrumentsISR systemsArmamentsForce multipliers (e.g. refueling)etc.Establishment and reconfiguration of new operations and concepts

Source: JMSDFMilitary Modernization (?) in East AsiaAsymmetric capabilities innovation in the use of weaponsNorth KoreaUse of old/simple technologies, and modifications to compensate for technological inferiorityAsymmetric warfare the only option Weaker capabilities, but but effective in initial penetration/provocation

Impact on East Asia Security RisksIncrease concerns Military modernization mixed with politicized issues and transitionIncreased sophistication and lowered rules of engagement?Not so much about states arming to attack, but how they avoid conflict through coercionConflict caused by miscalculation, miscommunication, and misinterpretationGreater accesibility to weapons by non-state actorsDebatableGeopolitical issues not always the causeRecent inter-state frictions accelerate/bolster military modernizationNatural process change in warfare and the military institutionClearer conceptualization of threats, scenarios, and missionsTechnology Certain aspect of military capability, but policies/strategies matter more

The Military Institution: Capabilities and FunctionsThe military creates the conditions to achieve political ends, yet its functions have diversifiedDeterrence and combatDiplomacy/stabilizationISRR&DHA/DRGreater defense planning complexities and liabilitiesGreater reliance on technologyDiversified functionsReconfigurations required to adapt to new technologiesProblems in Defense PlanningIntegration and coordinationPolicies/strategies/operations/tacticshardware and softwareForce structureOperational preparednessSystems integration and inter-operabilityComplexity in operationsCapacityCostsResourcesBalancing investment vs. consumptionswitching costsR&DAcquisition and mastering technologyOrganizational adaptabilityEducation and trainingKnowledge, skills, practices, ethics, etc.OperationsControlling the use of weaponsVulnerability of systems

Future of Technology in Defense PlanningSovereign states have the right to pursue capabilities for national defense as long as they do not destabilize regional securityDomestic and regional measures needed to ensure regional securityNational defense Operational realignmentsBalance between investment and consumptionAlign policies/strategies/operations/tactics with capabilitiesAdapt to transitional realities and conditionsFocus on the capabilities essential to sharpening national defense capabilitiesRegion Mitigate and prevent regional tensionsDecelerate arms competition/conflict via regional/international agreementsArms controlExport controlCode of conductConfidence building measuresTransparency and information sharingMilitary cooperation (alliances and beyond)Most vital PoliticsImproving political relations between states and facilitating an environment for peace and stabilityThank You!Ryo Hinata-YamaguchiRyo.Hinata.Yamaguchi@gmail.com