Highlights from the 7th

International Carbon Dioxide Conference,

September 2005

Nir Krakauer

niryk@caltech.edu

Outline

• About the conference• Some highlights

– I. Recent trends in carbon fluxes– II. New observation platforms– III. Prognoses under global warming

• Questions, comments, etc.

Conference in brief

• ~400 attendees• First ICDC held in the States• In “Boulder” The Omni Interlochen Resort

– Lots of catered food, golf courses– little nightlife

• Fancy, glitchy interactive website– Most presentations up at https://www.icdc7.com/

• NOAA makes little effort to alert the press• Lots and lots of talks to sit through!

• + Tim Whorf• Organized the original

ICDC• Posthumous

presentationsUSGRCP; UCSD

Dave Keeling (1928-2005) is remembered

Official themes

• 1) The fate of fossil fuel emissions• 2) Land use and the terrestrial carbon

cycle• 3) Carbon cycle response to

environmental change• 4) Effects of high CO2 on land and ocean

ecosystems• 5) Managing the carbon cycle

My poster

• “Carbon isotope evidence for the latitudinal distribution of air-sea gas exchange”

• Regional mean gas exchange rates can be estimated from ocean bomb carbon-14 data and checked against ocean carbon-13 and total C absorption

• See me, or watch out for my defense talk

Highlights:I. Recent trends in carbon fluxes

The ocean sink

• Estimates are converging based on– 1990s ocean carbon system measurements

(JGOFS) used to estimate the anthropogenic increase in ocean dissolved carbon concentrations (e.g. Nicholas Gruber, UCLA)

– Atmospheric oxygen measurements that differentiate between ocean and vegetation uptake (e.g. Roberta Hahn, Scripps)

• 2.0-2.4 Pg C / year for the 1990s• Future? Interannual variability?

DECADAL CHANGES IN OCEAN CARBON UPTAKEDECADAL CHANGES IN OCEAN CARBON UPTAKE

C.L. Sabine, R.A. Feely, G.C. Johnson, R. Wanninkhof, F.J. Millero, A.G. Dickson,

N. Gruber, R. Key and P. Covert

WOCE/JGOFS/OACES Global CO2 Survey

~72,000 sample locations collected in the 1990s

DIC ± 2 µmol kg-1

TA ± 4 µmol kg-1

Mapped Inventory = 106±17 Pg C

+ marginal seas = 6± 6 Pg C

+ Arctic Ocean = 6± 6 Pg C

Total Inventory = 118±19 Pg C

Sabine et al., 2004

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/oceans/glodap/Glodap_home.htm

Anthropogenic CO2 Column Inventory (mol/m2)

Is Ocean Carbon Uptake Changing with Time?If so, how do we monitor and understand these changes?

OSP

KNOT

HOTBATS ESTOC

One way is through long time-series measurements of carbon

NZTS

Another approach is CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography Goal: To quantify decadal changes in the inventory and transport of heat, fresh water,

carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbon tracers and related parameters in the oceans.

Approach: Reoccupy a subset of the WOCE/JGOFS global survey cruises approximately every decade. The US has identified 19 cruises to be run over 10 years.

Achievements: The U.S. CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography Program has completed 6 of 19 cruises and is on schedule. For further details see: http://ushydro.ucsd.edu/

A16NJune ‘03

A20Sept. ‘03

A22Oct. ‘03

P2June. ‘04

P16SJan. ‘05

A16SJan. ‘05

U.S. CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography

CO2 Accumulation Rate on Isopycnal Surfaces along 30°NBased on P2 2004 - 1994 Comparison

Vertically Integrated Accumulation: 1.1±0.1 mol m-2 yr-1

Preliminary results suggest that North Atlantic accumulation rate over the last decade may have been about half of the North Pacific accumulation rate.

This appears to be a change from the historical operation of these basins.

Water columnWater columnAccumulationAccumulation~ 1.1 mol/m~ 1.1 mol/m22/yr/yr

Water columnWater columnAccumulationAccumulation~ .6 mol/m~ .6 mol/m22/yr/yr

SurfaceSurfaceAccumulationAccumulation

1.3 1.3 µµmol/kg/yrmol/kg/yr

SurfaceSurfaceAccumulationAccumulation

0.7 0.7 µµmol/kg/yrmol/kg/yr

NAO-

NAO+

PDO+

Net carbon fluxes from vegetation

• Based on the geographical pattern of station CO2 concentrations, the TransCom 3 and other inversions suggest that in the early/mid 1990s, plants in the northern midlatitudes took up 1-2 Pg C / year

• Is this still happening?• (The interannual variability of sinks in such

inversions may be more reliable than their absolute size)

A Decline in the Northern Hemisphere CO2 Sink

from 1992 - 2003John Miller1, Pieter Tans1, Jim White2, Ken Masarie1, Tom Conway1, Bruce

Vaughn2, Jim Randerson3, Neil Suits4

1. NOAA/CMDL, Boulder2. INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder3. U. of California, Irvine4. Colorado State University, Fort Collins

Meridional CO2 Gradient

19981992

2003

Gradient increasing; big jump from 1998-2003

MBLContinentalHi-Altitude

Fits to MBL

Ocean

Land

Total

18 – 53 N

Mid-latitude non-fossil Carbon Fluxes

∆=1.5 Pg (1015g) C

• Changes in the terrestrial biosphere appear to drive the trend.•Biosphere trend is relatively insensitive to C3/C4 and other parameters.

p<0.01p<0.06

Conclusions

1. NH carbon sink shrunk from 1992 – 2003 by ~1.5 billion tons of C; probably driven by land.

2. Regardless of whether this persists, it demonstrates that surface uptake can change rapidly.

3. Analysis of climate anomalies hints at drought as a driver of variability in temperate NH.

Area carbon inventories

• An alternate way of quantifying carbon uptake of plants is to measure it at small scales– CO2 eddy covariance, etc., from towers,

and/or– Changes in the number and size of trees, etc.,

in sample plots• This is now being done for many forested

regions, esp. in N America and Europe

Seventh Carbon Dioxide Conference Seventh Carbon Dioxide Conference –– Boulder,Boulder, September 25September 25--30, 200530, 2005

The Amazon and the modern carbon cycle

Jean Ometto Jean Ometto (1)(1), Antonio Nobre, Antonio Nobre(2)(2) , , Humberto RochaHumberto Rocha(3)(3) , Paulo, Paulo ArtaxoArtaxo(4)(4), ,

Luiz MartinelliLuiz Martinelli(1)(1)

(1)(1)CENA/USP, CENA/USP, (2)(2)INPE/INPA, INPE/INPA, (3)(3)IAG/USP, IAG/USP, (4)(4)IF/USPIF/USP

Acknowledgments: The ICDC7 Scientific Committee and the ICDC7 supporting agencies.

-6-5-4-3-2-1012

Grace e

t al. (

95)

Malhi e

t al. (

98)

Philips e

t al (9

8)

Araujo et

al (0

2)

Araujo et

al (0

2)

Carswell

et al

(02)

Miller e

t al (0

2)

Salesk

a et a

l (04)

Salesk

a et a

l (04)

Baker

et al

(04)

Baker

et al

(04)

Baker

et al

(04)

NEE

(ton

C/h

a.yr

)

Estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) obtained by eddy covariance technique and by aboveground biomass estimates. Biomass inventory (Backer et al, 2004), eastern and central plots, western plots and floodplain plots, respectively

COCO22 boundary layer budget boundary layer budget

Inte

grat

eded

dyco

varia

nce

flux

(mol

m)

-2

Integrated boundary layer budget flux (mol C m )-2

SOURCE

SINK

-0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.40.3 0.2 0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

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-0.2

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-0.4

A comparison of estimates of the Amazonian forest carbon budget as obtained by CBL budgeting and the eddy covariance methods for Manaus in July 2001. Square symbols represent night time periods and circles represent daytime the daytime period. (Jon Lloyd et al)

Night fluxes are higher in budget study

The role of tropical rivers in the global Carbon budget

Richey et al (2002)

15

0

5

10

20

25

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Floo

ded

Are

a (x

104

km2 )

T (>100m)

MC

S (<100 m) MF

10152025

%

1.77 x 106 km2

Inundation

Σ: 1.2 ± 0.3 Mg C ha-1 y-1 (basin ~ 0.5 Pg/y)

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0

5

10

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30

J F M A M J J A S O N D

CO

2Ev

asio

n (T

g C

mo-

1 )

MC

Integrating field pCO2 measurements and flooded areas

13 x Fluvial TOC export = 0.036 Pg C /y

Richey et al (2002)

Methane emissions from wetlands

Final estimates suggest that the Amazon Basin wetlands may produce as much as 20% of the natural global source of methane. (Melack et al., 2004)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

annu

al m

etha

ne e

mis

sion

, Tg

C y

-1

MainstemEmissions

Interannual Variability

Lowland Amazon Basin (<500 m asl)(5.19 million km2)

Methane Emission 22 Tg C y-1

Central Amazon Basin(1.77 million km2)

Methane Emission 6.8 + 1.3 Tg C y-1

Low

Mid

High

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

77/88

*88

/8989

/9090

/9191

/9292

/9494

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/9898

/9999

/0000

/0101

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Def

ores

tatio

n (k

m2 /y

)

* decadal annual mean INPE, 2005

0

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100000

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180000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Fire Spots in Amazônia1999 - 2004 (NOAA-12)

Amazonia Deforestation1977- 2004 ( km² /y )

Deforestation and fire spots in Amazonia

Deforestation in Amazon BasinDeforestation in Amazon Basin

Source: Daniel Nepstad / IPAM

Some aspects related to land use change

• Agricultural “Frontier”: in several regions development is associated with expansion

• Socio-Economic drivers:– Pressure from large scale agricultural crops ~ soy

bean, sugar cane and others– Pastures, logging– Road construction

• Pressure from increase of population

Davidson and Artaxo, 2004

Estimates of net exchange of CO2, CH4 and N2O from the Amazon Basin to the atmosphere

In terms of GWP, the combined impacts of sources and sinks in Amazonia is close to zero

Highlights:II. New observation platforms

Measuring CO2 concentrations• Until recently, regular air measurements only made at a

few surface stations, and ocean measurements only on occasional research cruises

• However, the surface boundary layer isn’t representative of most of the atmosphere– Comparisons with transport models therefore problematic

• Similarly, little could be said about space and time variability within the ocean

• The number and extent of measurements is increasing fast

• The challenge now is to publish and understand large volumes of data, and to properly interpolate at the remaining gaps

Satellite spectrometry for CO2: current

• SCIAMACHY: retrievals so far are compromised by influence of aerosol scattering (Sander Houweling; cf. Hartmut Boesch )

• AIRS: retrievals of upper tropospheric pCO2 look promising, especially over the tropics; preliminary validation against Japanese measurements from airliners (Richard Engelen)

Satellite spectrometry for CO2: future

• Special-purpose satellites due to launch in 2008: GOSAT (Japan) and OCO (USA)

• Work on calibration and retrieval algorithms is ongoing

• Ground-based spectrometers can accurately retrieve column CO2 -validation against aircraft profiles (Rebecca Washenfelder)

TCCON Measurements and Model Predictions

Vanessa Sherlock and Brian Connor – Lauder CO2 columnsSeth Olsen – MATCH model results

385

380

375

370

365

CO

2 VM

R (p

pmv)

5/04 7/04 9/04 11/04 1/05 3/05 5/05 7/05 9/05Date

Park Falls, Wisconsin Lauder, New Zealand Darwin, Australia

LINE = Olsen and Randerson model

Highlights:III. Prognoses under global warming

Thanks!

Hazards of Temperature-increase on Food Availability in Changing

Environments:

Global Warming Could Cause Failureof Seed Yields of Major Crops

L. H. Allen, K. J. Boote, P. V. V. Prasad,A. M. Snyder, J. M. G. Thomas, and J. C.

VuUSDA-Agricultural Research Service and

Agronomy Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL USA

SCOPE--1

• Show experimental evidence for progression of seed yield failures with increasing temperature

• Plants were grown in deep soil in outdoor, sunlit controlled-environment chambers

• Controlled factors: Temperature, Humidity (Dewpoint), CO2 Concentration, Soil Water

• Plants were exposed to the same solar radiation during each individual study

SCOPE--2

• Crops Studied---rice, soybean, dry bean, peanut, grain sorghum

• Project simply the implications of global warming on decreases of food availability based on decreases of seed yields

• Modeling---underway. Beyond the scope of this presentation

THE FIRST STUDIES WERE ON THE EFFECTS

OF ELEVATED TEMPERATURE

AND [CO2] ON RICE

RICE STUDIES in FLOODED SOIL

Rice cultivar, IR-30, tropical indica type

Two CO2 levels, 330 and 660 ppm

Five studies with temperature treatments ranging from 25/18 to 40/33 oC (day/night); mean daily temperatures from 22 to 37 oC

IR-30 Rice Response to Temperature

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

20 25 30 35 40 45Mean Temperature, C

Bio

mas

s or

Yie

ld, M

g/ha

Biomass-330Biomass-660Yield-330Yield-660

General Rule of Thumb

Rice seed yield decreased about 10% for each 1°C increase above the OPTIMUM temperature for seed production.

In other words, yields dropped to zero at 10°C above the optimum temperature.

YIELD

0

150

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600

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900

20 23 26 29 32 35 38

TEMPERATURE (oC)

YIEL

D (g

m-2

)

IR72/350IR72/700M103/350 M103/700

Rice cultivarIR72 - tropical indicaM103 - temperate japonica

Soybean Response to Temperature

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5

10

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20

25

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20 25 30 35 40 45 50Mean Temperature, C

Mas

s, g

/pla

nt

BiomassSeed Yield

Importance of Temperature Effects on Reproductive

ProcessesElevated temperature affects reproductive processes more than vegetative biomass.

There is no beneficial interaction of high CO2 on the detrimental temperature effect.

Yields decreased to zero for cultivars studied at about:

32 °C for dry bean

35-36 °C for rice and grain sorghum

40 °C for soybean and peanut

Temperature sensitivity might vary for other cultivars.

Potential Impacts of Global Warming on Food Availability (Food

Production)• Example of rice, cultivar IR30

– A 5 °C rise in temperature might decrease yield to only 40% of current yield for Florida conditions.

Research and Information Needs

• Search for high temperature tolerant cultivars.

• Determine physiological and genetic mechanisms of temperature sensitivity and breed crop plants for less sensitivity.

• Ameliorate high temperature impacts with alternate crops, planting dates, etc.

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100 150 200 250 300 350 400 More

AGLB (ton/ha)

Freq

uenc

y

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Cum

ulat

ive

perc

enta

ge

Houghton et al. (2001):44 sites - 269±86 ton/ha

•Baker et al. (2003)59 sitest0 = 282±57 ton/hat7 = 294±55 ton/ha

•Overall AGB average: 283±66 ton/ha

Total biomassHoughton et al. (2001):AGB + 30% (roots and dead AGB): 370 ton/ha

Above ground biomass

World-wide Measurements of Atmospheric CO2 and Other Trace Species Using Commercial Airlines

T. Machida1, H. Matsueda2, Y. Nakagawa3, M. Tomosawa4, K. Ishikawa5, T. Inagaki5, T. Nakazawa6, T. Ogawa5 and T. Suenaga7

1NIES, 2MRI, 3JAL, 4JAMCO, 5JAXA, 6Tohoku U., 7JAL F.

Ongoing Project (MRI, JAL, JAL F)1993-now, Twice/monthCO2, CH4, CO

30N-25N

25N-20N

20N-15N

15N-10N

10N-5N

5N-EQ

EQ-5S

5S-10S10S-15S

15S-20S

20S-25S

25S-30S

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

5ppm

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

30N-25N

25N-20N

20N-15N

15N-10N

10N-5N

5N-EQ

EQ-5S

5S-10S

10S-15S

15S-20S20S-25S

25S-30S

Carbon monoxide (CO)100ppb

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

CO2

COGrowth Rate

Detail: Poster FF-177 (Matsueda et al.)

New Project from 2003

Atmospheric Measurement by Airliners for Trace Species: AMATRAS

New Functions…in-situ CO2 measurementAircraft information from ARINC

New Equipments for Commercial Airliners1. Continuous CO2 Measurement Equipment

(CME)2. Improved Automatic Air Sampling Equipment

(ASE)

New ASE

Flask: 12 TitaniumSampling: Twice/Month

Australia-JapanAnalysis: Next Day (in 2days)

old ASE new ASEControl Trigger:

Measurement:

Timer ARINCFixed PositionVertical Sampling

CO2, CH4, CO CO2, CH4, CON2O, SF6, H2CO2 isotope

FAA Official Test

Radio Frequency Emission Test

Altitude Test

Got an Approval from FAA in April 2005

High Temp TestPower Input TestRadio Frequency Emission TestStatic Load TestAltitude TestWaterproofness TestProof and Burst Pressure TestVibration TestRadio Frequency Susceptibility TestVoltage Spike TestStatic Load Test

FWD

Installation on 747-400

CME

ASEPump

air conditioning duct

Schedule

Apr. 2005: FAA Official Test

Oct. 2005: Installation for 747-400End-Oct.: Issue STC by FAA & JCAB

1st Test Flight by 747

Nov. 2005: 2nd 747Feb. 2006: 1st 777Apr. 2006: 2nd and 3rd 777

2006-2010: Budget Applied (MOE Japan)

Initial Results from theTotal Carbon Column Observing Network

R.A. Washenfelder1, V. Sherlock2, B.J. Connor2, G.C. Toon3, and P.O. Wennberg1

1 California Institute of Technology (Pasadena, CA)2 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Lauder, New Zealand)3 NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Pasadena, CA)

Comparison of FTS Column and Integrated Aircraft CO2

380

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360

FTS

Col

umn

/ Dry

Pre

ssur

e (p

pmv)

380375370365360

Aircraft Integrated Column / Dry Pressure (ppmv)

CO2 6220 cm-1 band = 1.0076 x Aircraft Column

CO2 6339-1 band = 0.995 x Aircraft Column One to one line

Comparison of FTS Column and Integrated Aircraft CO2

380

375

370

365

360

FTS

Col

umn

/ Dry

Pre

ssur

e (p

pmv)

380375370365360

Aircraft Integrated Column / Dry Pressure (ppmv)

CO2 6220 cm-1 scaled by 1.0076

CO2 6339 cm-1 scaled by 0.995