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Appraisal Institute | Marketability Studies: Advanced Considerations and Applications Slide 1Slide 1
Quick HitsMarket/Marketability Analysis Applications For Support of :
*Highest and Best use*Valuation
*Review Reasonableness TestPresented by : Stephen Fanning, MAI, AI-GRS, AICPBen Sellers, MAI
Step #1
Step #2-5
Step #6Step #7
Step #8Three Part ConclusionSource: Fanning , Market Analysis for Real Estate (Appraisal Institute 2015) page 515
Slide 3
Three Part ConclusionHighest and Best Use Conclusions
“Traditionally, appraisers have emphasized the physical use in the conclusion of highest and best use, but all three considerations are necessary to identify the highest and best use fully.” TAR 14th Edition pg. 356
1. Use2. Time (probable use date or occupancy
forecast)3. Market participants–User of space–Most probable buyer
“A crucial element in highest and best use analysis is the timing for a specific use”.TAR 14th pg. 341
Slide 4
Quick Hit #1
Retail Market /Marketability Analysis
Test of Reasonableness
Appraisal Institute | Marketability Studies: Advanced Considerations and Applications Slide 5Slide 5
Quick Hit #1 -Community Retail • Review of an Appraisal on a 40 acre vacant land
zoned commercial and on major thoroughfare
• All physical features of size, utilities , curb cuts etc. good for commercial
• Located in the outer Edge in direction of growth of Fast Growing Major Metro Area
• Appraisal Under Review - Highest and Best Use-Development of a Big Box Multi Tenant Retail Center
• Since this is a review, the major question is whether the HBU is reasonable? Thus, alternative uses normally evaluated in Step #1 are omitted at this time for reasonableness test.
Example of Proposed Retail Center TypeCExampShopping Center
Appraisal Institute | Marketability Studies: Advanced Considerations and Applications Slide 7Slide 7
Slide 8
Major HBU/Valuation Question -Timing• Construction start ,• Absorption time,• Long term outlook for occupancy
“The level of analysis may vary with assignments, but economic demand for the subject property is a prerequisite to the financial testing of alternatives”.(TAR, 14th pg. 341)
Step #2- Trade Area Analysis by Ring Studies
Marketability Study (Foundation)
A
Type of RetailDistance People are willing to drive
• Neighborhood convenience store
1 to 1.5 Miles
• Community (Shopper and Convenience Goods)
3 to 5 Miles
• Regional (Shopper Goods)
5 to 15 Miles
Identify Demand Sources and Competition
Quick Hit 1A-Inferred Demand by Ring Analysis
Slide 10
Step 3-5 Calculated Demand by Per Capita Model
Per Capital ModelActual Sales per Capita X Population = Demand
Actual sales from Vendor Retail Gap Study is the data needed for per capita model
Detail Description of Method in Market Analysis for Real Estate Book of AI page 311-325
Retail MarketPlace Profile Example2016 Population 54,424
2016 Households 17,288
2016 Median Income $71,895
2016 Per Capita Income $38,367 Retail Sales in 3 MilesIndustry Group
NAICS
(1) Demand(Retail
Potential)
(2) Supply
(Retail Sales)
(3)Retail Gap
Auto Parts, 4413 $15,385,126 $11,237,088 $4,148,038
Electronics & Appliance Stores 443 $57,010,306 $7,857,009 $49,153,297
Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers 4441 $53,343,899 $25,377,370 $27,966,529
Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores 4442 $3,657,415 $2,922,353 $735,062
Grocery Stores 4451 $160,980,682 $76,919,343 $84,061,339
Calculating Sales Per Capita2016 Population 54,424
2016 Households 17,288
2016 Median Income $71,895 2016 Per Capita Income $38,367 Retail Sales in 3 MilesIndustry Group
NAICS
(1) Demand(Retail
Potential)
(2) Supply
(Retail Sales)
(3)Retail Gap
3 Mile Per
Capita Sales
MSA Per
Capita Sales
Auto Parts, 4413 $15,385,126 $11,237,088 $4,148,038 $206 $241
Electronics & Appliance Stores 443 $57,010,306 $7,857,009 $49,153,297 $144 $827
Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers 4441 $53,343,899 $25,377,370 $27,966,529 $466 $685
Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores 4442 $3,657,415 $2,922,353 $735,062 $54 $47
Grocery Stores 4451 $160,980,682 $76,919,343 $84,061,339 $1,413 $2,109
CapitaTypical Neighborhood – Community Retail Sales Categories
Industry Group NAICS3 Mile Radius of
Subject Sales Per Capita
Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores 4413 $206 Electronics & Appliance Stores 443 $144 Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers 4441 $466 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores 4442 $54 Grocery Stores 4451 $1,413 Specialty Food Stores 4452 $75 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 4453 $97 Health & Personal Care Stores 446,4461 $278 Gasoline Stations 447,4471 $398 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr
Stores4511
$79 Department Stores Excluding Leased
Depts.4521
$285 Other General Merchandise Stores 4529 $149 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores 4532 $17 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 4539 $175 Food Services & Drinking Places 722 $932
Totals $4,768
Retail Demand by Per Capita Method
Slide 15
New Acreage Demand # Year-> 2016 2021 2026 Source/Comment
13Total Supportable Demand for Retail/Service/Local Office Sq. Ft. In Primary Trade Area
867,147 1,002,786 1,138,425
14Current Square Feet Of Competitive Space In Primary Trade Area
850,000 850,000 850,000 Survey by Google Aerials
15 Planned New Space in Market Area 0 0 0 Assumed none for best case reasonableness test
16 Residual Demand in Primary Trade Area 17,147 152,786 288,425 Line 13 Minus Line 14
17 Total Market Acreage Shortage (oversupplied) 1.6 13.9 26.2
At 11,000 Sq. Ft. Bldg. Per Acre
Slide 16
New Acreage Demand Per Year# Year-> 2016 2021 2026 Source/Comment
13Total Supportable Demand for Retail/Service/Local Office Sq. Ft. In Primary Trade Area
867,147 1,002,786 1,138,425
14Current Square Feet Of Competitive Space In Primary Trade Area
850,000 850,000 850,000 Survey by Google Aerials
15 Planned New Space in Market Area 0 0 0 Assumed none for best case reasonableness test
16 Residual Demand in Primary Trade Area 17,147 152,786 288,425 Line 13 Minus Line 14
17 Total Market Acreage Shortage (oversupplied) 1.6 13.9 26.2
At 11,000 Sq. Ft. Bldg. Per Acre
18 New Acreage Demand Per Year 2.5 2.5
Avg. Per Year New Demand for Subject Primary Market Area Based on 11,000 sq. ft. bldg. size per acre
Step 6-Marketability Analysis (Capture)
Evaluated The Marketability or Capture Potential For Subject
• Applied ranking factors to specific properties within the primary trade area
Ranking Factors
Proximity to Current Retail (Cumulative Attraction)
Proximity / Linkages to Current Residential
Proximity to Higher Income Household
Proximity to New / Renovated Development (Any Type)
Ease of Access to and from Major Roads (corner location, on/off ramps, etc.)
Major Road Frontages
Size of Tract or Building
Slide 18
RANKING OF COMPETITIVE TRACTSRanking of Retail Potential Vacant Land
Tract ID # Acres Rating Score16 15 3021 13 3020 9 274 12 245 8 223 7 21
24 13 1923 15 18
Subtotal top 1/3 929 16 176 13 177 6 178 15 17
12 9 1614 11 1615 16 1513 19 14
Subtotal Middle 1/3 10517 20 1318 13 13
1-Subject 40 1110 14 1119 30 102 15 10
22 20 10
Slide 19
RANKING OF COMPETITIVE TRACTSRanking of Retail Potential Vacant Land
Tract ID # Acres Rating Score16 15 3021 13 3020 9 274 12 245 8 223 7 21
24 13 1923 15 18
Subtotal top 1/3 929 16 176 13 177 6 178 15 17
12 9 1614 11 1615 16 1513 19 14
Subtotal Middle 1/3 10517 20 1318 13 13
1-Subject 40 1110 14 1119 30 102 15 10
22 20 10
Quick Hit 1B- Rank competitive tracts by observation
Slide 20
Competition the Missing Piece “An appraiser should also consider the competition among various uses for a specific site. ….Market demand is not infinite. Even though the subject may be physically and locationally suited for a use, better-located sites may satisfy the market demand for that use completely before the subject can realize its development potential.”
The Appraisal of Real Estate, 14th Edition (Appraisal Institute, 2013) page 336
Slide 21
Quick Hit #2
Rent Analysis by Sales Potential
Slide 22
Occupancy Cost & Required Rent“Occupancy cost is directly tied to required rent necessary to support this cost” ( Raymond T. Cirz “Retail Sales Set Rent Levels” Real Estate Issues, 2012)
Occupancy Cost Ratio =
Annual Occupancy Expenses ÷ Annual Sales
Occupancy cost includes base rent, percentage rents, and expense recoveries but excluding tenant-specific cost such as utilities.
Slide 23
Test Subject Gross Market Rent Estimate
Weighted Average Gross Rent $25.00
*This could be used ,coupled with rent comps, to support rent estimate in appraisal , or in review, a reasonableness test of the appraisal under review estimate .
Appraisal Institute | Marketability Studies: Advanced Considerations and Applications Slide 24Slide 24
Occupancy Cost Ratios
Tenant ClassificationMedian Total Charges
Percentage of Sales Regional Shopping Centers
Median Total Charges
Percentage of Sales Super Community
Centers
Median Total Charges Percentage
of Sales Neighborhood
Centers
General Merchandise 3.01% 6.86% 7.57%Food 16.5% 3.48% 2.76%Food Service 15.1% 10.26% 10.59%Clothing and Accessories 13.0% 9.70% 7.43%Shoes 15.4% 9.42% 9.33%Home Furnishings 14.2% 11.62% NAHome appliances/music 9.6% 8.17% NABuilding Material /Hardware NA 6.48% NAAutomobile NA 6.39% 6.54%Hobby/special interest 11.5% 9.56% 7.50%Gifts/specialty 12.8% 14.00% 14.37%Jewelry 12.2% 6.31% 8.21%Liquor NA 6.81% NADrugs NA 3.32% 3.50%Other Retail 15.1% 10.65% 10.69%Personal Services 16.3% 15.69% 17.89%Offices (other than financial) NA 9.38% 11.81%Straight Averages 12.9% 8.7% 9.1%Weighted*Averages 5.0% 6.5% 5.7%
Source: Market Analysis for Real Estate Appraisal Institute 2015– page 303 adapted from ULI- 2008
ULI
Slide 25
Required Sales by Affordable Occupancy Cost
Weighted Average Gross Market Rent* $25.00
Divided by Occupancy Cost Ratio 6.5%
Required Sales per Square Foot $385
*For rent to be reasonable it must be used with a HBU of space user that is expected to have annual sales of about $385/sq. ft.
Slide 26
Quick Hit #3
Office –Reasonableness Test of
Absorption Forecast
Slide 27
• 12 Acres Vacant Land in CBD- Proposed Mixed Use Project –Retail, Condo and Office
• Land was Valued by Land Residual
• 1,160,000 sq. ft. was allocated for Office
• Appraisal Absorption of Office part was 2 years in DCF
• No Market/Marketability Study Just Descriptive of Region, City and CBD
Proposed Office Building
Slide 28
Test of Absorption ConclusionsFuture Office Space Demand In CBD
Line # Comment /Source
1 2030 CBD Employment Forecast 155,000 Pg. 28 of Appraisal2 2010 CBD Employment 113,421 Pg. 28 of Appraisal 3 Employment Increase CBD 20 Years 41,579 Total Employees
4 2010 Office Space in CBD 10,511,240 Pg. 205 - XYZ Co. 4th Qrt Survey 2010
5 2010 Vacant Space 1,352,830 12.9% XYZ Co. Survey6 2010 Occupied Office Space 9,158,410 Line 4 plus Line 5
7 Occupied Space per Total Employment in 2010 80.7 Sq.Ft. per employee
8 Total Sq. Ft. New Occupied Demand 2010 to 2030 3,357,381 Line 3 multiplied by
Line 79 Current Planned Office In CBD ( not
counting the subject) 7,226,000 Appraisal page 48
10 Market Conditions if All Current Planned Completed (3,868,619) Line 8 minus line 9 -
Oversupplied
Slide 29
Quick Hit #4
Rate of Urban Growth
Analysis
Slide 30
Rate of Urban Growth AnalysisSubject: 250 vacant acres fronting interstate
highway south of major city.
Purpose of Analysis: As part of support in forecasting development timing for subject vacant land appraisal.
Analysis Technique : Scale Historical Urbanized Growth Towards the Subject ( urbanized = 50% of the area developed)
Slide 32
Rate of Urban Growth Analysis, cont. Historical growth toward the subject over the last 24
years was found to average .162 miles per year .
Distance to the subject from current urbanized area is 1.63 miles.
Based on historical growth it will be approximate 10 years before the subject area is urbanized.
1.63 miles ÷ .162 miles per year = 10.062 years
Slide 33
Quick Hit #5
Economic Demand for
Industrial Building In Small
Town
Slide 34
Subject - Industrial Building in Small Town
Slide 35
• Location Quotient Inferred Demand LQ is a method to that shows the land uses most
concentrated in this market
The measure is the percentage of employment by each category locally compared to the percentage of employment categories of some large area like metro, state or nation
The math is local % ÷ region% = concentration if local percentage is larger
Math Example of Location QuotientCook County State of Texas Cook
County
EMPLOYEES EMPLOYEES Location Quotation
NAICS #
Number Percent Number Percent% of
Cnt.Emplyto State %
11Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
104 0.7% 61,749 0.6% 1.15
21 Mining 1,869 12.3% 214,298 2.1% 5.94 22 Utilities 125 0.8% 80,077 0.8% 1.06 23 Construction 946 6.2% 595,184 5.8% 1.08
31-33 Manufacturing 2,690 17.7% 821,658 8.0% 2.23 42 Wholesale Trade 547 3.6% 503,522 4.9% 0.74
Current Subject Market Land Uses Most Concentrated by Employment Analysis
Cook County State of Texas Cook County
EMPLOYEES EMPLOYEES Location Quotation
• NAICS # NumberPercent Number Perce
nt% of Cnt.Emply to State %
11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 104 0.7% 61,749 0.6% 1.15 21 Mining 1,869 12.3% 214,298 2.1% 5.94 22 Utilities 125 0.8% 80,077 0.8% 1.06 23 Construction 946 6.2% 595,184 5.8% 1.08
31-33 Manufacturing 2,690 17.7% 821,658 8.0% 2.23 42 Wholesale Trade 547 3.6% 503,522 4.9% 0.74
44-45 Retail Trade 1,791 11.8% 1,177,215 11.4% 1.04 48-49 Transportation and Warehousing 633 4.2% 426,380 4.1% 1.01
51 Information 113 0.7% 201,791 2.0% 0.38 52 Finance and Insurance 368 2.4% 451,595 4.4% 0.55 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 134 0.9% 175,090 1.7% 0.52
54Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 276 1.8% 578,725 5.6% 0.32
55Management of Companies and Enterprises 11 0.1% 80,078 0.8% 0.09
56 Administration and Waste Services 281 1.9% 656,070 6.4% 0.29 61 Educational Services 1,561 10.3% 1,155,925 11.2% 0.92 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 1,180 7.8% 1,366,868 13.2% 0.59 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 67 0.4% 125,011 1.2% 0.36 72 Accommodation and Food Services 1,242 8.2% 903,651 8.8% 0.94
Other Services (except Public
Subject Forecasted Market Land Use Most Concentrated by Employment Current Forecasted 10 Years
Cook County State of Texas Cook County Cook County State of Texas Cook
County
EMPLOYEES EMPLOYEES L.Q EMPLOYEES EMPLOYEES L.Q.
#Number % Number % Number % Number %
11
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 104 0.7% 61,749 0.6% 1.15 220 0.9% 120,200 0.8% 1.17
21Mining 1,869 12.3% 214,298 2.1% 5.94 3,710 15.2% 409,150 2.6% 5.7822Utilities 125 0.8% 80,077 0.8% 1.06 136 0.6% 60,200 0.4% 1.44
23Construction 946 6.2% 595,184 5.8% 1.08 2,710 11.1% 1,070,810 6.9% 1.61
31-33Manufacturing 2,690 17.7% 821,658 8.0% 2.23 3,490 14.3% 941,760 6.1% 2.36 42Wholesale Trade 547 3.6% 503,522 4.9% 0.74 830 3.4% 600,200 3.9% 0.88
44-45Retail Trade 1,791 11.8% 1,177,215 11.4% 1.04 2,940 12.1% 1,663,220 10.7% 1.13
48-49
Transportation & Warehousing 633 4.2% 426,380 4.1% 1.01 1,050 4.3% 602,960 3.9% 1.11
51Information 113 0.7% 201,791 2.0% 0.38 250 1.0% 284,210 1.8% 0.56
52Finance and Insurance 368 2.4% 451,595 4.4% 0.55 758 3.1% 898,900 5.8% 0.54
53
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 134 0.9% 175,090 1.7% 0.52 340 1.4% 651,440 4.2% 0.33
Slide 39
Quick Hit #6
Identify Sources of Demand
Ring Studies of Same Store Sales
Slide 40
Introduction
• Case Study
• Big Box (Lowe’s) Appraisal1. Establishing Subject Trade Area for use in
Analyzing Demand2. Establishing Viability of Comparable Sales
• NOTE: This was a review but also works for an appraisal analysis of possible comparable sales.
Slide 41
Trade Area Delineation
• Quick Hit #6:
• How to Identify Trade Area
• Ring Study of Same Store Sales
• Determine distance between stores• Use judgement
• Calculate per capita sales for subject retail type (NAICS 4441)
Slide 42
Subject Location Map
Slide 43
Same Store Location Map
Slide 44
Trade Area Delineation
12 miles
Quick Hit #6A – Ring studies of same store sales
Slide 45
Trade Area Delineation
12 miles20 miles
Slide 46
Trade Area Delineation
Quick Hit #6B – Adjust ring studies of same store sales to half way between stores
Trade Area
Slide 47
Economic Demand
• Inferred Method – (use later in sales)
• Per Capita Retail Sales for Subject Type Retail
Per Capita Retail Sales for Subject Type Retail Calculation Source
Industry Group NAICS Metro Area Subject Trade Area STDB Community Profile
Building Materials and Supplies 4441 $582,392,843 $292,804,732 Retail Marketplace Profile NAICS 4441
Population 810,792 224,713 STDB Community Profile
Per Capita Retail Sales for Subject Type Retail $718 $1,303 Calculation
Slide 48
Quick Hit #7
Economic Demand for the Subject
Slide 49
Big Box Example
• Let’s take that format and apply it to our Lowe’s Big Box Example…
Slide 50
Subject Sales
Slide 51
Home Improvement Sales
Ideal Improvement?
• Modern design• 100,000+ SF
Economic Demand?
• Stronger than national average
Home Improvement Sales/SF SF/Store Avg. Store Sales No. of Stores Total Sales (000) Total SF
Home Depot $371 104,000 $38,926,561 2,274 $88,519,000 212,500,000
Lowes $292 109,000 $33,243,669 1,777 $59,074,000 202,000,000Source: Bizminer 2016
Subject $856 135,000 $115,598,000 - - -
Source: STDB Business Locator Report
Quick Hit #7 – Compare Store Sales to National Average
Slide 52
Quick Hit #8
Case Study Combining 3 Part Conclusion and
Economic Demand
Slide 53
Comparable Sales Selection
“Market analysis and highest and best use analysis set the stage for the selection of
appropriate comparable sales.”
Appraisal Institute, The Appraisal of Real Estate, Fourteenth Edition, Page 381
Slide 54
Sales Comparison
• Physical ComparisonSubject Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale 4 Sale 5
Original UseHome
Improvement Retail
Circuit City Lowe’s Wal-Mart Lowe’s Lowe’s
Year Built 1999 1997 1992/2007 1990 1991 1998
Size (SF) 135,000 18,910 88,330 119,430 72,514 90,000
Comparison -Similar Age, Significantly
Smaller
Similar Age, Slightly Smaller
Slightly Older, Similar Size
Slightly Older, Smaller Size
Similar Age, Slightly Smaller
Slide 55
Current Use (Time of Sale)Subject Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale 4 Sale 5
Original UseHome
Improvement Retail
Circuit City Lowe’s Wal-Mart Lowe’s Lowe’s
Year Built 1999 1997 1992/2007 1990 1991 1998
Size (SF) 135,000 18,910 88,330 119,430 72,514 90,000
Current UseHome
Improvement Retail
Vacant Vacant Auto Dealership Vacant Vacant Vacant
“The performance of the property is likely to be the most reliable indicator of current
demand for ex isting properties in the market.”Appraisal Institute, The Appraisal of Real Estate, Fourteenth Edition, Page 310
Slide 56
Home Improvement SalesSubject Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale 4 Sale 5
Home Improvement Sales
$292,804,732 $98,208,800 $74,437,411 $25,824,575 $29,906,703 $23,247,722
No. of Stores(NAICS 4441) 106 45 33 17 8 6
Retail Sales Per Store $2,762,309 $2,182,418 $2,255,679 $1,519,093 $3,738,338 $3,874,620
Population 224,713 123,902 84,727 140,603 27,323 40,728
Home Improvement Retail Sales Per Capita
$1,303.02 $792.63 $878.56 $183.67 $1,094.56 $570.80
Source: STDB Retail MarketPlace Profile Report
÷
÷
=
=
Economic Demand is Inferior
Slide 57
HBU ConclusionsSubject Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale 4 Sale 5
Original UseHome
Improvement Retail
Circuit City Lowe’s Wal-Mart Lowe’s Lowe’s
Current UseHome
Improvement Retail
Vacant Vacant Auto Dealership Vacant Vacant Vacant
Year Built 1999 1997 1992/2007 1990 1991 1998
Size (SF) 135,000 18,910 88,330 119,430 72,514 90,000
Home Improvement Retail Sales Per Capita $1,303.02 $792.63 $878.56 $183.67 $1,094.56 $570.80
Proposed UseHome
Improvement Retail
Craft Store Medical Office (Multi-tenant)
Grocery Anchored
Center
Tractor Supply Anchored
Center
Heavy Machinery
Retail
Timing Now Now 2-3 years 2-3 years 2-3 years Now
User Owner Occupant
Owner Occupant Investor Investor Investor Owner
Occupant
Quick Hit #8 – Compare Retail Sales Per Capita and HBU Three Part Conclusion of Comparable Sales
Slide 58
What does all this really mean? • Conclusion: The proposed comparable sales do
not have the same highest and best use as the subject property. Therefore, they are not comparable for comparison to the subject.
• Why?...
“Market analysis and highest and best use analysis set the stage for the selection of
appropriate comparable sales.” Appraisal Institute, The Appraisal of Real Estate, Fourteenth Edition, Page 381
Slide 59
HBU ConclusionsSubject Sale 1 Sale 2 Sale 3 Sale 4 Sale 5
Original UseHome
Improvement Retail
Circuit City Lowe’s Wal-Mart Lowe’s Lowe’s
Current UseHome
Improvement Retail
Vacant Vacant Auto Dealership Vacant Vacant Vacant
Year Built 1999 1997 1992/2007 1990 1991 1998
Size (SF) 135,000 18,910 88,330 119,430 72,514 90,000
Home Improvement Retail Sales Per Capita $1,303.02 $792.63 $878.56 $183.67 $1,094.56 $570.80
Proposed UseHome
Improvement Retail
Craft Store Medical Office (Multi-tenant)
Grocery Anchored
Center
Tractor Supply Anchored
Center
Heavy Machinery
Retail
Timing Now Now 2-3 years 2-3 years 2-3 years Now
User Owner Occupant
Owner Occupant Investor Investor Investor Owner
Occupant
Comparable?(Same HBU?) - No No No No No
Slide 60
Quick Hit #9
Compare Land Sales by HBU Three Part
Conclusion
Slide 61
Market Analysis and HBU
“Since highest and best use analysis establishes what is being valued, it is the
foundation of all market value appraisals.” Appraisal Institute, General Market Analysis and Highest & Best Use Course, Part 1-4
“The conclusions of market analysis and highest and best use analysis are fundamental
to the sales comparison approach.”The Appraisal of Real Estate, Fourteenth Edition, Page 379
Slide 62
Land Sales Three Part Conclusion AnalysisSubject Sale #1
Size (Acres) 40 1.4
Location/Access Corner on Major Highway 1 in semi rural area
Major Highway on edge of central city
Sale Date 1/1/2018 2/2/2016Sale Price Per Sq. Ft. $6.00 Flood Plain none noneUtilities none All at sitePopulation in 3 Miles 3,096 11,310Forecasted New Pop Growth in 3 miles in next five years
495 1,927
Avg. HH Income in 3 Miles $80,481 $89,133
Employment in 3 Miles 2,123 4,277
Adjacent Land Use
Some industrial, service commercial and one smallsubdivision, but most of
adjacent land is vacant land on all other sides.
Strip Retail, and Two fast food north, vacant south and Subdivision adjacent
Use of Property Vacant Built Convenience StoreTiming for Use Long term future Immediate
Most Probable Buyer Investor owner /developer
Quick Hit #9 – Compare Sales by HBU 3 Part Conclusion