• high climate change impacts in the region, and on-going un-sustainable economic development - state in 2060

*Scenario 4: downward spiral

*Presentation

• Description of axes: to unsustainable economy and low cc impacts

• Key characteristics of scenarios in WB

• Global and EU context

• Driving forces (STEEP)

• Environmental impacts

• Me - individual in this scenario

• Newspaper articles

*Axes description

*WB Picture 2060

• poverty

• negative development

• deteriorated environment

• high water scarcity

• extreme events not managed leading to further deteriorating of economy

2060. S4 scenario description- by driving

forces STEEP

Social characteristics

bipolarization of society to rich and poor, migrations, possible conflicts, poverty, poor education, pandemics, apathy.

 

Technological characteristics

further declining of industry, unsustainable technological development, and technologic decline.

 

Economic characteristics

decline of GDP, growth of inflation, barter.

 

Environmental characteristics

depletion of natural resources, high level of pollution, un-possible adaptation of the ecosystem, land use change, impact of invasive species.

Political Characteristics

(including security)

political insecurities, no perspective, anarchy, corruption, end of rule of law.

 

  Risk Threats to risk (according to STEEP categories) Goals

1.

Water deficit particularly drinking water (high)

-weak governance structures (political)- irrational resource use (social)-ecosystem changes to climate changes (environmental) - temperature rise - water deficit due to pollution

-Strengthen governance -Technology advancement

2.

Possible riots due to resource lack (medium)

-redirecting water resources between upstream and downstream (political, social)-economic impact downstream (economical)

-Strengthen regional and international corporation

3.

Increase of poverty (high)

-rising cost of commodities, energy, due to greater resource demand (environmental, technological, economical)

-Strengthen governance -Enforce economic activity 

4.

Decreasing add blocked capital flow (medium)

-slowing down of economic development (economical)

- Enforce economic activity

Migration from rural to urban areas

-poor infrastructure-decrease economic activity

 -Infrastructure and technology enforcement 

Monopoly (PPP) (high)

-weak government structure (political)

 -Strengthen governance -Strengthen regional and international corporation 

Risk of extreme events (high)

-droughts and floods (environmental)

-Infrastructure and technology enforcement

*Global and EU context

Restriction of development by high env. standards

*Global and EU context

Nature protection first – development later

Impossible possibility

10

*Environmental Kuznets Curves

  

Impact on environment

GDP

Turningg point

A

B

*Global and EU context

Privatisation of natural resources, including water

Viktor Simončč, Sisak 12

*We are living in world wich change!

13

Do we know enough about CC and comon future?

14

Maybe we do not know too much, but for sure we know that we need to change approach!

SOCIETY

CAPACITIES

UNSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Let us contribute a little bit to sustainable approach!

15Viktor Simončič, Sisak

S4 scenario is:

NEWSPAPER HEADLINES –if business as usual on WB!?

Endless horror!

A horrible end or horror without end?

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