Heuristics – Rules of ThumbSession 4

Finding the Critical Path to Change:Planning and Implementing a Successful Campaign

February 7-11, 2011, Doubletree by Hilton Cambridge Garden House Hotel

Chris Rose - Campaign Strategy Limited www.campaignstrategy.co.ukwww.campaignstrategy.org

What if it’s hard to decide ?

conflicting signals

Facts, asks, arguments (campaigners opinions)

Audience thinks about it analytically – weighs pros and cons

Audience decides, changes opinion

Audience acts, changes behaviour

REFLECTIVE THINKING - conscious

REFLEXIVE THINKING - unconscious

What advocacy and conventional campaigns assume happens

Facts, asks, arguments (campaigners opinions)

Audience can’t think about it analytically – resorts to heuristics, values, framing

Audience acts (may mean no change in their actions)

Audience adopts opinion in line with behaviour

What actually happens

Facts, asks, arguments (campaigners opinions)

Audience continues behaviour and resolves dilemma by concluding you must be wrong (about facts, arguments, opinions)

Audience tests it against behaviour and opinion

And … with a mature issue they already have made up their minds about

Audience finds conflict (not comfortable)

REFLEXIVE THINKING makes up most (98% ?) decision making

Not how science works

Not how the media and philosophy say politics works

heuristics

• Liking• Similarity• Effort• Exchange

• Cooperation/groups• Authority• Representativeness

• Consistency• Commitment• Confirmation• Social proof• Scarcity (availability)• Availability (recall)• Adjustment from

anchor

Heuristics are one reason why CAMP CAT factors are important

•Context – where the message arrives•Audience – who we are communicating with•Messenger - who delivers the message•Programme – why we’re doing it

•Channel – how the message gets there •Action – what we want to happen •Trigger – what will make that happen

changed Messenger and utilised

LikingAuthorityConsistencySimilarity

Consistency Opinion driven by behaviour

Commitment

Confirmation

I love Cornflakes because ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. A CustomerName …………………………………………..Address…………………………………………………………………………………………--------------------------------------------------------Return to PO Box A13982786 secton ATo win your prize

Effort

PAY

PAC

KET

Social

Similarity

Liking

Groups and cooperation

Authority

Scarcity

Representativeness

Availability, Recall and Vividness

Adjustment From An Anchor

How much further or nearer is London to New York than 2,000 miles ?

2,000

Take your example

Think about audiencesApply triage

Already agree Might agree Probably won’t agree

Target audience

Quick campaign (re)design

Target audience (pick one audience)

What are they like ? What might work for them ?

Victim/problem Solution Way to act Benefit of success

Tip: try not to make it like what you do for those who already agreeCan also use CAMPCAT and RASPB

Do it in pictures – Use visual language - Use at least one heuristic

How to make my national dish

1st step 2nd step 3rd step 4th step (etc)

End objective – end result

1st activity

2nd activity

3rd activity

4th activity

5th activity …(etc)

I want … my

national dish

Campaign to un-ban my national dish

1st step 2nd step 3rd step 4th step (etc)

End objective – end result

1st activity

2nd activity

3rd activity

4th activity

5th activity …(etc)

I want to be able to

make my my national

dish