Here We

Come!

HereWe

Come!How the Boomers WillChange Your Business

(Are YOU prepared?)

Luke Vorstermans

90,000,000Baby Boomers arebearing down on everysegment of our economy.

Your business better

BE PREPARED

HEREwe

COME!

Here They Come! 1

Luke Vorstermans is a graduate of St.Mary’s University in Halifax and hasdeveloped a 25-year career in smallbusiness management, publishing andbusiness consulting.He has travelled extensively across

North America, Europe, Russia andSouthern Africa speaking, writing andconsulting on the process of changeand its impact on individuals, societyand the workplace.Recognizing the growing impact of

the small business sector in the NewEconomy, Luke focuses on TrendMarketing and delivers seminars,workshops and consulting services onhow businesses can take advantage ofthe consumer and business trends thatwill drive our economy.He is the editor of the Graphic Arts

Magazine, a Canada-wide print tradepublication and the managing editor ofBusiness Dynamics, a monthly businesstabloid published in St. John’s, NF.

Luke makes his home in the beautifulAnnapolis Valley, Nova Scotia.

phone: 902 542-0517toll free: 888 412-1067

Fax: 902 542-0442email: luke@business-dynamics.com

Author’s Note:

This booklet is a pilot project for the forthcomingbook of the same name to be released inSeptember 2005. See back cover for ordering.

Here We Come! is published by:

Business Dynamics. All rights reserved. For reprints, see back cover.

www.business-dynamics.com

40s

American Baby Boomers bearing down on everysegment of our economy. The impact of this demo-graphic shift will revolutionize every business activi-ty. Understanding its character, and positioning abusiness in the path of profitability, demands arethinking of the way we do business.

Where we’re headingDemographics are a key factor in shaping our eco-

nomic life. The growth and lifestyle of a populationdetermines how they will spend their dollars in thekey sectors and services within a community.Obviously an increasing number of people buyingsimilar products has an impact on supply anddemand, so understanding demographics is the keyto long-term forecasting.

Traditional marketing strategies target the 18-44demographic but that is about to change. Instead ofbuff bodies, perfect moms and fast food, advertisingwill show weathered skin, graying hair and gourmetmeals as a mushrooming generation of consumersarrive at retirement age.

“Age Power will rule the 21st century,” writes KenDychtwald in Age Power: How the 21st Century Willbe Ruled by the New Old, “and we are woefullyunprepared.”

How big an impact? Consider thesestatistics. Between 2002 and 2010:

The number of people between 18and 44 will decline by 1%.

The number of people aged 55 andolder will increase by 21%.

And here is the ultimate marketinglandslide… the number of people

1945 - US drops atomicbombs on Hiroshima andNagasaki. WWII ends.

1946 - First boomersborn. Tupperware hitsthe department stores.First electronic computerassembled.

1947 - Citizenship Actcame into effect. The firstmicrowave oven. Frisbeesstart to fly. First WorldSeries telecast.

1948 - Louis St Laurentsworn in as PM. BarbaraAnn Scott wins Canada'sfirst Olympic gold medalin figure skating. UnitedNations Declaration ofHuman Rights.

1949 - Newfoundlandbecomes a province. NATOcreated. People's Republicof China established.

S N A P S H O T

1 9 4 0 s

QUICK CLICK - 2003Our population - 31,714,637

Federal gov’t debt - $510 billion Consumer debt - $827 billion

(includes mortgages and credit debt)

Average household debt - $69,450Average household savings - $1,465

Total Canadian savings - $17.5 billionInflation rate - 2.2%

Here They Come! 3

Two inexorable forces are shaping the Canadian economy andthe global marketplace. The first–and the most visible–is theimpact of emerging technologies. The microchip, the Internet,wireless communications, robotics, nanotechnology and a host

of other innovations are revolutionizing the global culture. The speed atwhich information flows–any information–is having a profound effect onevery aspect of daily life. Its ubiquitous nature and accelerating speedcasts a shadow of uncertainty on long-term business planning. Obviouslynational and global economies are reacting accordingly.

The second force is more personal. Its impact ismore predictable. And unlike the uncertainty ofwhere technology will lead us, long-term planningis the key to jumping on the opportunities it drives.What is this force? Over 90 million North

Demographicsexplains

two-thirdsof everything

David Foot - Boom, Bust & Echo

P A R T 1M o m e n t s I n O u r L i v e s

2 Here They Come!

50sBut even their accumulated wealth pales compared

to the pot of gold sitting in the hands of their parents,estimated to be over $1.2 trillion in Canada alone.Their sheer number and spending power will putunforeseen demands on consumer goods and services,travel, health, education, housing and investments.

In his book The Roaring 2000's, Harry S. Dentstates, “How and where we work and live is about tochange more drastically than at any other time in ourhistory due to the convergence of the mainstreamingof the Internet and other technologies and the peakspending years of the aging Baby Boomers. Thiswill result in nothing less than the greatest boom inhistory and an unprecedented opportunity for thesavvy people who anticipate these changes.”

Dent makes sense. Back in the mid-1980s, he

1950 - Korean War starts.

1951 - National Ballet ofCanada founded.

1953 - Queen Elizabeth IIcoronation. Korean Warends.

1955 - Disneyland opens.

1956 - Elvis debuts on TV.

1957 - Ford Edsel intro-duced. USSR launchesSputnik.

1958 - Cumberland Minedisaster in Springhill, NS.

1959 - Diefenbaker can-cels Avro Arrow program.

S N A P S H O T

1 9 5 0 s

If one group controls the vast majorityof the wealth and discretionary income,then ... IT IS THE MARKET

Here They Come! 5

THE DEMOGRAPHIC BACKGROUNDThe Canadian population is aging at an increasingly rapidpace. However, our population is relatively young, not evenranking among the oldest twenty nations of the world.

Country % of population 65+ % increase in those 65+ 1990 to 2025

Sweden 17.9 33United Kingdom 15.7 45Italy 15.2 63France 15.0 65Germany 15.0 66Japan 12.8 129United States 12.6 101Canada 11.8 141

between 55 and 64 will increase by 47%!The over 60 crowd currently makes up 20% of the

population, up from 12% in 1950. They are on theway to forming almost 1/3 of our population. Thisdemographic shift carries with it the lifestyle trendsthat shape consumer spending.

A little more than half of this demographic arewomen, whose increasing power in shaping businesshas barely begun. Such a large mass of educated,older women, with a tradition of rebellion, equalityand self-determination, has never occurred before.

This demographic is reaching their peakspending years with substantial money intheir pockets. With mortgages paid off andkids through school, there's extra cash forhomes, travel, hobbies and personal indul-gences. Their spending has barely begun.

Much of the wealththat will be inherited isheld by a generation ofhard working, extremelydebt-shy men andwomen. Raised duringthe Depression, theyinherited little wealthfrom their parents. But,largely as a result of analmost unbroken climbin housing prices, and abooming stock marketin the ‘70s and ‘80s,many people now oversixty have amassedlarge estates. These sen-iors will transfer almost$1.2 trillion to theirbeneficiaries in the next20 years.

Nearly 50% of allpersonal assets are con-trolled by people over50. Economists estimatethat the real estateholdings alone ofCanadians over 65 areworth $250 billion.

g e e , t h a n k s

D A D !

Seniors control more than70% of the nation's wealth.

4 Here They Come!

and many of them traded-up to pricier realestate by age 44. From one perspective, this isplain common sense. When we consider thecumulative effect of huge numbers of peoplein a single generation all making similarchoices at about the same time, the power thatthis gives us to predict larger economic trendsis phenomenal.

According to Dent, demographics and tech-nology were also at work during the Roaring'20s, which was similar in cycle and timeframe.

“Every 80 years, you get an individualist, moreradical generation like the one that had Henry Ford,”he said. “That generation gave us the automobile,telephones, airlines, women's rights. It ushered in arevolution with the assembly line.

“Today's boomers are also leading the worldthrough a revolutionary innovation cycle. Thistime, people like Bill Gates are spearheading thechanges in computer technology and the Internetwith companies like Microsoft, Yahoo! and Intel.

“Couple this big technology boost with the buy-ing power of a huge generation of people, and youhave the ability to greatly propel markets.”

Dent is not the only author to use demographicsto predict future trends. Others who have identified

The Iron Curtain, transistorradios, lemonade stands,Howdy Doody, Studebakers,hula hoop, Barbie dolls,party lines, Elvis, VW Bug,Motown, cut outs, 45 RPMrecords, peashooters, mak-ing forts, wringer wash tubs,Easy-Bake ovens, rollerskate keys, Hippies, drive-ins, Bob Dylan, the Pill,California Dreamin', disco,Cracker Jacks, Hockey Nightin Canada, sand candles,Beach Boys, mini skirts,Jonestown, LSD, Woodstock,candy cigarettes, RollingStones, Dolly Parton, petrocks, Tiananmen Square,Twiggy, penny candy, BerlinWall, Europe on $5.00 aDay, burn the bra, MoodyBlues, Roy Rogers, pennyloafers, '57 Chevy, bobbypins, getting stoned.

w o r d s w i t h

M E M O R Y

“It's like a tsunami coming at you.You know the tidal wave is

going to hit, and it's a question

of whether you'll be ready.”Ed Schneider, Dean of the Davis School of Gerontology

Here They Come! 7

60sdiscovered the formula to accurately forecastinglong-term economic trends. Dent noticed a strongrelationship between the spending, investing andsaving habits of the massive Baby Boom generationas they aged and how they impacted our economy.By paying attention to demographics–the observationof human populations as a whole–it became clear thatthe choices made by Baby Boomers were predictableand largely age determined.

For instance, Baby Boomers typically entered thework force between the ages of 19 and 22, causingthe massive inflation of the 1970s. They typicallybought their first “starter” home by around age 33

CANADIAN GRANDPARENTSCanada recorded 5.7 million grandparents in 2001.

Each grandparent had an average of 4.7 grandchildren.

Most Canadian grandparents were at least 45 or older.Only 2% of women and1% of men were grandparents at anage younger than 45. In the 55 to 64 category, nearly two-thirds of women and one-third of men were grandparents.80% of senior women and 74% of senior men were grand-

parents.Half of all grandparents were retired.

30% were still in the labour force.

68% of grandparents were married. 18% were widowed. 10%were divorced or separated.

4% were living common law.

Approximately 56,800children were being raised by their grandparents and 65% were financiallyresponsible for their grand-children in these households.

Source: Statistics Canada

1960 - Canadian Bill ofRights. Coke sold incans. ‘Let’s do the Twist.’

1961 - NDP formed. Mr.Ed and Dick Van DykeShow premier.

1962 - Cuban MissileCrisis. The Tonight Showkeeps us up past midnite.

1963 - Kennedy assassi-nated. First pushbuttontelephones. World popu-lation tops 3.5 billion.

1964 - Northern Dancerwins Kentucky Derby.Beatles wow Canadiansat Vancouver gig. PLOformed.

1965 - New Maple Leafflag. Canada PensionPlan established. UStroops arrive in Vietnam.

1966 - Cassius Clay KO’sGeorge Chuvalo. Lennonmeets Yoko. “Star Trek”premiers.

1967 - Expo 67. World’sfirst heart transplant.

1968 - Canadian Forcesunified. Martin LutherKing & Robert Kennedyassassinated. PierreTrudeau sworn in as PM.

1969 - Armstrong walkson moon. Canada goesbilingual. Abortion islegalized in Canada.

S N A P S H O T

1 9 6 0 s

6 Here They Come!

Lifestyle trends create multiple business and sell-ing opportunities. Health care for example, islaunching a wide diversity of products and servicesas Baby Boomers feel the effects of age. They willtry to reduce those worries by swallowing billions ofdollars worth of herbs and vitamins, working out atany one of the new fitness clubs that will be open-ing, or by purchasing gym equipment for home use.Interest in health diets, TV talk shows, cosmetic sur-gery, books about maintaining sex drive or reducingcholesterol and losing body fat will abound. Healthconsultants and nurses will offer out-of-the-hospitalhealth care in the home. Retirement real estate ven-tures that focus on quality architecture and maintainrecreational facilities such as golf courses and greenspaces will prosper.

For a business startup, knowing which trends willinfluence the new business and how to position the

• Decisions were madeby going “eeny-meeny-miney-mo.”

• The worst embarrass-ment was being pickedlast for a team.

• Money issues werehandled by whoever wasthe banker in Monopoly.

• The worst thing youcaught from the oppositesex was “cooties”.

• Having a weapon inschool meant beingcaught with a slingshot.

• You got your windowswashed, oil checked andgas pumped - all for free.

• Nobody owned a purebred dog.

• There were just twotypes of sneakers and theonly time you wore themat school was for gym.

• Water balloons werethe ultimate weapon.

• Ice cream was consid-ered a basic food group.

• Abilities were discov-ered because of a “dou-ble-dare-you.”

• Race issues were aboutwho ran the fastest.

• Nearly everyone'sMom was at home whenthe kids arrived homefrom school.

R E M E M B E R

W H E N . . .

If you’re planning for thefuture, you need to understandpopulation demographics.

Here They Come! 9

70s

1970 - War Measures Act

1971 - First email sent.Microprocessor intro-duced. Starbucks opens.

1972 - Munich massacreat the Olympics. PaulHenderson scores big forCanada!

1973 - FedEx founded.Movie hits AmericanGraffiti & The Sting.

1974 - Nixon resigns.

1975 - CN Tower com-pleted. Microsoft Corpestablished.

1976 - Canada abolishescapital punishment. TheMontreal Olympics.

1977 - Blue Jays firstMLB game. Star Warssaga begins.

1979 - Joe Who? swornin as PM. Garfielddebuts in newspapers.

S N A P S H O T

1 9 7 0 s

lifestyle trends for the boomer generation includeCanadian David Foot, who wrote the best seller Boom,Bust & Echo, Ken Dychtwald, who published AgeWave and Age Power and Faith Popcorn, who identi-fied 18 trends that are shaping the lifestyles andspending habits of this generation.

In 1992, Faith Popcorn, globally-recognized trendexpert and marketing futurist, challenged businessthinking with her best-selling book, The PopcornReport, which documents her extensive research onboomer demographics, their lifestyles and their verypredictable trends. (See page 14)

Followed by Clicking, which she co-edited withLys Marigold, the authors present furtherevidence–along with a track record of accurate trendwatching–by identifying lifestyle choices thatboomers will make as they grow older. These rangefrom the trend to a healthier lifestyle and food choices,to cocooning–the desire to create our homes intosecure and cozy environments.

8 Here They Come!

in - CITE’- ful“Ich bin ein Berliner.” President John F. Kennedy speaking in Berlin.

“We are more popular than Jesus.” Beatle John Lennon in Japan.

“The phrase ‘working mother’ is redundant. “ Activist Jane Sellman.

“Vive le Québec libre.” French President Charles de Gaule in Quebec.

“Turn on. Tune in. Drop out.” Sixties philosopher Timothy Leary.

“Go ahead. Make my day.” Clint Eastwood as Detective Harry Callahan.

“Normal is in the eye of the beholder.” Whoopi Goldberg.

“What I said was, ‘Fuddle duddle.’” PM Pierre Elliot Trudeau.

90s

business for maximum exposure is criticalinformation for successful planning. Beforeyou can market, you must know your market.

For existing businesses, repositioning thebusiness for long-term staying power is essential.Established businesses are often the most vulner-able when changing markets exert pressure onthe status quo. New competition often causesknee-jerk reaction–such as competing over priceor boosting advertising–when increasing pricesand narrowcasting may be a wiser strategy.

In his book Boom, Bust & Echo, David Foot writes,“We better learn to deal with the boomers, becausethey’re not going anywhere anytime soon. Anyonelooking to take advantage of the situation right nowmust ask themselves, ‘What do people in their 50s and60s like to do?’Anyone can be a successful entrepre-neur by looking at what someone in their 50s or 60swants and needs, like financial planning, travel, safety,family and above all, quality. They want quality andthey’re willing to pay for it.”

In the same way that businesses were forced to

1990 - Iraq invadesKuwait. Dances withWolves, Pretty Woman.

1992 - First Canadianwoman in space. Char-lottetown Accord dies.

1993 - Kim Campbellbecomes first woman PM.

1994 - NAFTA goes intoeffect. Friends premierson NBC.

1995 - MP3 files flourishon the Internet.

1996 - Donovan Bailey.

1997 - UK returns HongKong to China. PrincessDiana killed in crash.

1999 - Y2K bombs.

S N A P S H O T

1 9 9 0 s

By 2030, one out of every four

Canadians will be over 65 years old.

Here They Come! 11

PROJECTED DEMOGRAPHICS (IN THOUSANDS)

Age 2006 2011 2016 20210-4 1,640.2 1,666.4 1,708.7 1,734.85-9 1,790.4 1,715.8 1,741.8 1,783.610-14 2,096.4 1,863.6 1,790.1 1,815.715-19 2,155.3 2,175.0 1,945.5 1,873.020-24 2,167.6 2,241.4 2,261.2 2,034.725-29 2,194.1 2,263.5 2,336.4 2,355.730-34 2,201.6 2,293.0 2,360.0 2,430.735-39 2,326.8 2,278.1 2,367.1 2,431.940-44 2,675.7 2,370.3 2,324.0 2,411.545-49 2,663.7 2,681.7 2,385.2 2,341.450-54 2,362.9 2,637.4 2,657.5 2,370.255-59 2,073.7 2,318.3 2,588.5 2,611.660-64 1,578.1 2,011.3 2,251.4 2,516.365-69 1,222.4 1,495.8 1,907.4 2,140.470-74 1,030.5 1,112.7 1,365.7 1,745.775-779 858.7 879.7 957.2 1,181.680-884 627.5 666.2 688.1 756.885-889 351.3 422.5 452.9 472.590 + 211.8 269.0 331.0 373.6Totals 32,228.6 33,361.7 34,419.8 35,381.7

The baby boom generation will begin retiring in large numbersstarting around 2005. Source: Statistics Canada

1980 - Canada boycottsthe Moscow SummerOlympics. Terry Fox'sMarathon of Hope ends.

1981 - Wayne Gretzkyscores 50 goals in 39games. MTV starts cableTV broadcasting.

1982 - Surround Soundintroduced for home use.Tylenol tampering kills 7.

1983 - The Internet iscreated. Final episode ofM*A*S*H.

1984 - First Canadian inspace. Wendy’s asks,“Where’s the beef?”

1985 - Coca-Cola re-sumes selling old formu-la Coke. Intel introduces386 microcomputer chip.

1986 - Expo ‘86 opens inVancouver. Space shuttleChallenger explodes.

1987 - PTL’s Jim &Tammy Bakker comeunglued.

1988 - Calgary WinterOlympics. Ben Johnsonstripped of gold medal.

1989 - Berlin Wall falls.Massacre at L'ecole Poly-technique, Montreal.Seinfeld. The Simpsons.Nintendo releases GameBoy. Tiananmen Square.

S N A P S H O T

1 9 8 0 s

10 Here They Come!

Trendsworth billions$$$

Ifeel overwhelmed!” said Leanne, a clothing storemanager for the past five years. “I'm spending moreon advertising and sales keep slipping. I don't feellike I'm on top of my business anymore.”

“You're not alone,” I replied. “I hear that same refrainfrom many business owners in spite of our boomingeconomy and low interest rates. All that good cheer does

The future is serious business and if

your customers reach the future

before you, they will leave you behind.

P A R T 2

Here They Come! 13

rethink their strategy in response to department stores,urban malls, franchising and big box stores, businesseswill need new marketing tools to compete within thisdemographic shift.

Understanding future trends and capitalizing ontheir opportunities should be a key managementactivity and positioning your business as an advocateof change, rather than fighting for tradition, willrequire intelligent planning.

Business planning is plagued with uncertainty andfrustration when traditional marketplace assumptionsare no longer valid. However, business owners whoread the trends, and market accordingly, positionthemselves for maximum profits.

Oh, and one last thing ...

By 2045, the vastmajority of the BabyBoomers will havedisappearedfrom the landscape.

C A N A D I A N

F A M I L I E S• There are 7.8 millionfamilies in Canada.

• 45% are marriedcouples with children.

• 29% are marriedcouples without children.

• 15% are single par-ents.

• 6% are common-lawcouples without children.

• 5% are common-lawcouples with children.

12 Here They Come!

“What profitable trend can I get on board with?”

“Are you looking for a trend that will make youmoney or a business that will make you happy?” Iasked. “There are lots of ways to make money butyou better do something you really like otherwiseyou'll be toast in no time.”

“Good point. So what do I like, and can I makemoney at it?” he asked hoping for an immediate fix.

• • • • Leanne, Gordon and Doug represent the growing

number of business owners trying to come to gripswith the dynamics of a changing marketplace. Whileeach situation is unique, they all feel the stress andfrustration of trying to manage a business in a mar-ket that's under constant change.

The arithmetic of life used to be simpler: onemarriage, one income per family, one house, oneneighbourhood, one crop of kids. Today, thesethings are multiplied over and over. We scramble tokeep up. We scramble to keep track. We're stressedout. We're exhausted. What we really want is to buyback time.

As mentioned earlier, emerging technologies and

Positioning your businessas an advocate of

change, ratherthan fighting for

tradition, requiresintelligent planning.

• SOS (Save Our Society):We’re discovering a socialconscience of ethics,passion and compassion.

• Vigilante Consumer:Educated, frustrated andangry consumers arechanging the market-place through pressure,protest and politics.

• Egonomics: Offsetting adepersonalized society,consumers crave recogni-tion of their individuality.

• 99 Lives: Too fast apace, too little time,causes societal schizo-phrenia and forces us toassume multiple roles.

• Being Alive: Awarenessthat good health extendslongevity and leads to anew way of life.

• Cashing Out: Workingwomen and men, ques-tioning personal/careersatisfaction and goals,opt for simpler living.

• Clanning: Belonging toa group that representscommon feelings, causesor ideals; validatingone’s own belief system.

• Small Indulgences:Stressed-out consumerswant to indulge in af-fordable luxuries andreward themselves.

T R E N D St o w a t c h

Source: The Popcorn Report.

Here They Come! 15

little to pacify a business that's struggling to makeends meet. Do you know why sales are slipping?”

“If I knew I could adjust my strategy but I can'tidentify the root cause. That's what frustrates me.”

• • • • “I've been marketing this way for years and it's

always produced results. So why has the responserate dropped?” asked Gordon, during a break fromhis print shop. “I have a great staff but if sales con-tinue to falter, I may have to let someone go. Thatdoesn't sit well with me.”

“Have you sat down with your staff and asked fortheir input?” I suggested. “They are often an excellentresource. After all, they have a stake in the outcome.”

“Hmmm … not really,” he replied. “I don't wantthem to know the business is in trouble. That wouldjust add to my problems. I'd rather talk with you;you're not involved.”

• • • • “I was hoping to start a new business with the

money from my severance package but I just can'tfind the right product or service to sell,” complainedDoug, a 20-year veteran of the corporate world.

•Cocooning: The need toprotect oneself from theunpredictable realities ofthe outside world.

• Down Aging: Nostalgicfor their carefree child-hood, boomers find com-fort in familiar productsfrom their youth.

• Anchoring: A reachingback to our spiritualroots in order to beready for the future.

• EVEolution: The waywomen think andbehave is impactingbusiness, causing a mar-keting shift away from ahierarchical modeltoward a relational one.

• Fantasy Adventure:The modern age whetsour desire for roads nottaken.

• Atmosfear: Pollutedair, contaminated waterand tainted food stir upa storm of consumerdoubt and uncertainty.

• Icon Toppling: A newsocioquake transformsthe world as the pillarsof society are questionedand rejected.

• Pleasure Revenge:Consumers are having asecret bacchanal. They’remad as hell and want tocut loose again.

T R E N D St o w a t c h

pogstattooes

reality TVhockey cards

body piercingCanadian Idol

bean bag chairslamps on a chain

beads for doorwaysirresponsible dot comsfashion merchandising

Pot Shots by Ashleigh Brilliant

internetgravanityhealth foodglobalizationhome deliverynanotechnologywireless everythingtravelling everywhereobsession with ageingWOW customer servicehome-based businessesenvironmental management

Fads...flash in the pan

Trends...big and broad

... continued next page

14 Here They Come!

predictors of how people are feeling and what prod-ucts and services they will be buying. Trends andfads are often confused but think of a trend as beingbig and broad and having staying power. The biggerand broader, the greater the influence. The Beatleswere–and still are–a trend. The Monkees were a fad.Gardening is a trend. Bell bottoms are not.

A good example of how a trend creates businessopportunities is the pizza industry. Back in the early1960s, pizza was primarily a snack food eaten in arestaurant. But by the 70s, consumers were pickingup pizza to eat at home and pizza delivery took off.As it’s popularity grew, competition increased andso did the marketing hype: “Delivered in 30 minutesor you don't pay.” “Order one, get one free.” “Nocash? No problem! Use your debit card.” Pizza isnow available in every shape, size and convenience.Every time we ate a pizza, we unwittingly partici-pated in creating and growing the trend, which isjust a small slice of the enormous fast food trend.

The pizza trend didn't appear overnight nor was itthe result of a savvy entrepreneur who envisioned

Act big

Think small

Be nimble

changing role of

W O M E NFew things illustrate the

changing roles of womenas much as the changesin fertility. While havingbabies was the thing todo in the '50s and early'60s, that all changed inthe '90s and continuesinto the new millennium.During the 1960s and

1970s, women typicallymarried and startedhaving children in theirearly 20s. However, from1979 to 1999, fertility ofCanadian women age 20to 24 decreased nearly40% while it dropped by25% for those aged 25to 29. In 1999, therewere only 1.52 childrenper woman.This new, independent

woman has a differentview of the world.

Here They Come! 17

changing demographics are exerting enormous pres-sures on the marketplace. As these forces converge,the traditional time frames to which we are accustomedcollapse. The luxury of time is forfeited in a mad rushto just keep up. Is it any wonder that the businesscommunity is under duress?

For business owners, this chaotic marketplace is ofconcern. Never mind that some of the big guys–Eatons, Texaco, Air Canada and Woolco, to name afew–have been victims; what about the small busi-ness sector, the economic backbone of our society?How will they survive?

Luckily, many of the trends that will dominate theeconomy as the boomers charge to retirement arewell suited to be served by small business. Withoutthe bureaucracy and politics of a corporate structure,small businesses are more adept to reposition them-selves in a changing environment.

Understanding trends gives a clear profile of themarketplace, both what is beginning to happen nowand what will happen in the future. They serve as

c o n t r a s t sWAS IS

Gray means “gray” Gray means greenRetirement Rejuvenation

Borrowed time Decades to goOld = Decrepit Old = Active

Marketing mantra: “18 to 44” Marketing mantra:”50 and up”“Older people don’t switch brands” “Older people make brands”

Fountain of “youth” Freedom of “age”Maturity Longevity

Running out the clock Revving up the engineLost earning power New spending power

I’m watching my pennies I have not yet begun to spendFrom: Re-imagine! by Tom Peters

t r e n d

A C R O N Y M S

16 Here They Come!

EVERYDAY Low PricesHistorically, most consumers made purchase decisions

solely on the basis of price. Whichever business offered theabsolute lowest prices won their business. Today’s consumersare somewhat more skeptical and certainly more time-starvedand therefore finding the lowest price will just be one factor inmaking a purchasing decision. More often, honest prices willactually be more sought after. Why the change in consumer mind-set about prices?

With Wal-Mart and other retailers popularizing the concept of “Everyday LowPrices”, consumers prefer being offered one low price consistently rather than aspecial price “for a limited time only”. That means consumers don’t have to clipcoupons, wait for sales or trek all over town to save money on what they want.

As a result consumers dislike a high normal price/low sales price combination.Rather than feeling like they are getting a bargain at sales time, consumers feelthey’re being taken advantage of at the higher regular price. Most consumers lookfor reasonable and fair prices within an acceptable range rather than the absolutelowest available.

Internet shopping has also created a consumer expectation that nobody has topay full sticker prices any more. Online comparison-shopping is highly effectiveand easy and will become an increasingly popular shopping tool.

Wal-Mart is already positioned as the price leader. Most consumers gauge whatthey will pay for products on the basis of the Wal-Mart price. They simply trust thebrand and feel that Wal-Mart will not add on an excessive margin.

If they come to you over price;they will leave you over price. Wal-Mart is by far the

world’s largest retailerand the world’s largestcompany. The companydoes approximately $245billion (US$) in annualsales. Wal-Mart employsmore than 1.3 millionassociates worldwide.

Wal-Mart understandsthe world of retailing.

h o w b i g i s

B I G ?

Here They Come! 19

The 80% Minority, JoanneThomas Yaccato. www.the-thomasyaccatogroup.ca

For the glass ceiling andother women's issues:www.womensmedia.com

Google results on ‘Womenas consumers’ - 1,760,000.

Just Ask a Woman by MaryLou Quinlan

EVEolution by Faith Popcornwww.brainreserve.com

Tools for women: www.tomboytools.comWomen in power: LindaCook, Annette Verschuren,Chief Roberta Jamieson,Catherine Swift, LuAnMitchell-Halter, MichelleGardner, Louise Arbourand many more. www.powerwomen.ca

Marketing to Women: Howto Understand, Reach, andIncrease Your Share of theWorld's Largest Market byMartha Barlettawww.trendsight.com

Marketing to Moms :Getting Your Share of theTrillion-Dollar Market byMaria T. Baileywww.bsmmedia.com

t h e r i s i n gp o w e r o f

W O M E N

the whole process. The trend built momentumas it went through stages of innovation,

awareness creation and market adoption.

Would you invest in the pizza trend today? Thatall depends on where you believe the trend is heading–up or down.

With hindsight, we can look at this trend andidentify some of the factors that led to its growth:convenience, growing families, working moms,increased disposable income, swarms of hungryteens, delivery anywhere, anytime, etc. If you knewthese factors in the 1970s, the pizza business wouldhave been a great investment. Knowing the factorsthat would grow the trend, you could position yourbusiness advantageously in the growth cycle.

In hindsight, can you identify other trends thatwould have made a great business opportunity? Ofcourse! Hindsight is easy. The critical question is:

Can you change hindsight into foresight?

If future trends can be identified based on changinglifestyles, then developing a business strategy basedon those trends makes sense. Take the aging BabyBoomers for example. They are starting to change thehealth industry with their concern over food quality,lifestyle issues and eating choices. With a hugeamount of disposable income and leisure time, socialactivities, travel and hobbies are of great interest.Since there are many more boomers on the way, itwould be safe to assume that the market demand forhealth-related products and leisure time activitieswould also substantially increase.

In the Here We Come! course (see insert), we’llintroduce you to your future customers based on their

18 Here They Come!

Kids in the McDonald’sad exclaim

“Change is good!”(What do you exclaim?)

strategies from the old one. We're numb to advertising–on just about everything–but we add to the cluttereach time we approve another ad. We’re not sure if it’seffective but without an alternative, we do it anyway.We tout the importance of customer service but don'ttake the time to train our staff. We know the value of'thank you' cards but our database is incomplete. Theshop needs a facelift; but that's for another day. We'reoverwhelmed with all the things we need to do. Whatwe really want is for everything to stand still while wecatch up. Fuggetaboutit.

“Trend cycles are emerging more rapidly as aresult of technology, accelerated social diffusion,instantaneous communication and more willingnessto accept–or inability to escape–new ideas,” statesHallmark trends expert Marita Wesely-Clough.“When everything is accessible instantaneously, theability to assimilate, to differentiate and to choosebecomes more difficult.”

With timeframe acceleration and demographicsshifting, the need for small business to get on top oftheir game becomes critically important. While thepizza trend took a couple of decades to get firmlyrooted in our culture, consider how quickly the cellphone has become an essential ‘gotta have one’ prod-uct. And camera phones, the next stage in the trend

During times of changein any business or organ-ization, there are sevendynamics that occur:

1. People will initiallyfeel uncomfortable aboutany change suggested tothem.

2. People tend to feellonely and isolatedwhenever changes areoccurring around them.

3. Most people can onlytolerate so much changeat any time.

4. It's human nature tolook at the negative first.

5. People usually assumethat there are insufficientresources to make achange.

6. Different people willhave different states ofreadiness for change.

7. Without intervention,people will prefer torevert to the familiar.

d y n a m i c s o f

C H A N G E

Here They Come! 21

anticipated purchasing decisions. Identifying lifestyletrends is relatively easy. However knowing how tomarket and serve them requires more thought.

Most business owners are so exhausted with makingit through today that they postpone planning fortomorrow. But just as the lifestyle trends are changing,so are business trends. What worked yesterday maynot work tomorrow so positioning your business forthe long term requires a rethinking of today's market-ing and customer service strategies.

Take traditional broadcast advertising for example.In the day when the local radio station and newspaperwere the primary source of news and information, itmade sense to put your advertising message where themasses were looking. But consider how fragmentedthose two vehicles have become. With cable and theInternet, consumers have the option of thousands ofradio stations, each one targeting a specific listeningaudience. The print media litters our landscape withso much advertising material that the average personhas become numb. Add to that the growing numberof other choices on our time–satellite TV, MP3s,CDs, magazines, the Internet, etc–and I challengeyou to ask: “Am I spending my hard-earned money

advertising to audiences that are nolonger there?”

Considering all the advertising beingthrown at us, is it surprising that we sufferfrom a feeling of mental and emotionalparalysis, a kind of frozen framework–like kids in a huge candy store? Itbecomes increasingly difficult to discernthe truth–to sort out what's best.

We’re living in the New Economy butcontinue to use marketing tools and

Below are some trendsthat will affect the work-place and create issuesthat are unique to thisemerging business cycle:

• The Global Economy

• The Aging Problem

• Restructuring of the Workplace

• Telecommuting and Home-Based Workers

• Growth of the Contingent Workforce

• The Impact of Techno-logy on Privacy

• The Rate of Change

• Mergers/Acquisitions

• Job Flexibility

• Sustainability Issues

• Working Parents

• The Drive for Independence

• Greater Separation of Wealth

T H E N E Ww o r k p l a c e

20 Here They Come!

• Don’t conform, re-think the rules of business.

• The more you hurry, the worse it gets.

• Slow down – you’ll be more productive.

• Exploit strengths rather than fix weaknesses.

• Think like a novice; question everything.

• Create some oddball combinations.

• Don’t sell products - sell new solutions.

• Don’t compete,reinvent the game.

• Get ideas outside of your industry.

• Listen to new ideas especially, from the young.

• Create odd partnerships to stimulate creativity.

• Act big but think small and be nimble.

• Take risks. It’s the only way to get ahead.

• Whenever you get into a habit, break it.

• Abhor meetings.

w o r k s m a r t e r

NOT HARDER

impact the marketplace in the future.

Understanding trends gives you a clear profile ofthe marketplace, both what is beginning to appearnow and what will be happening in the near and fardistant future. They serve as an early predictor ofhow consumers are feeling, what products andservices they will be seeking and which businessesare alert in responding to their needs. The best timeto position a business is before the trend is wellestablished. Market position is vital to long-termsuccess of a business.

The advantage of trend marketing is its ability toreach the customer by narrowcasting the marketingmessage. Narrowcasting–delivering the messageonly to the desired market–is possible when the tar-get market is isolated from the whole. This is insharp contrast to broadcast marketing, which hasbecome considerably more elusive, extraordinarilyexpensive and wasteful of our resources.

These are extraordinary times to be in business andthe opportunities for success have never been greater.So is the need for intelligent planning and action. Theuncertainty and chaos of the marketplace will onlyincrease, particularly for businesses that continue touse yesterday’s tools to reach tomorrow’s customers.

The speed of business is driven by consumerdemand and this demand defines how products and

If you could know everythingabout tomorrow, what would

you do differently today?

Here They Come! 23

As Andy Warhol predicted with his “15 minutes of fame”, millions of individualsare craving immortality, or at least some public attention. Whether it’s a tattoo, par-ticipating in reality TV, having a character in a novel named after you, or adorningyour car with personalized license plates, the masses want their names out there.

This is where graffiti meets vanity: GRAVANITY – a trend catering to the obsessionof millions of individuals who secretly dream of immortality, or at least some publicattention. Gravanity offers a host of opportunities for entrepreneurs willing to(re)name their goods and services, however small, on behalf of eager customers.

The Dutch postal service (TPG Post) understands thetrend very well. They developed what must be the ultimategravanity service; creating your OWN stamps, using aphotograph of your choice, valid on everything from post-cards and letters to brochures and packages. Think mugshots, baby pics or family portraits – in the end it’s allabout YOU. Customers upload their photos to the TPGwebsite, provide payment details and a set of gravanity stamps is on its way.

The pay-off? For consumers and businesses, it means a unique and eye-catchingpromotional tool. For postal companies around the world, this may mean juicyrevenues in a market severely harassed by email and other digital dangers.

positioning, are moving even faster. Introduced fouryears ago in Japan, 57 million camera phones weresold by 2003, with expected sales of 338 million by2008. If a non-essential product such as cameraphones can foster that much growth, how will thegrowth of more essential products and services thatserve an aging population fare?

While conventional marketing competes over alimited market, trend marketing assumes the growthof a market because of changing demographics. Theepitome of trend marketing is to be where the cus-tomer is looking before they know they’ll be lookingthere. In other words, developing a business andmarketing strategy based on how demographics will

Key sectors that will feelthe impact of our agingpopulation:• Financial services• Housing and house-

hold goods• Automotive and

vehicle care• Computers and

communications• Media, entertainment

and travel• Personal consumables• Health, fitness and

healthcare

F o l l o w t h e

T R E N D S

22 Here They Come!

Graffiti meets vanity:

G r a v a n i t y

Reprints of this booklet:1-25 copies..............$4.75 ea26-50 ......................$4.50 ea51+........................$4.25 ea

Booklet on CD-ROM with live links: $7.25 each

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Please address orders and inquires to:Linda Ryan, Manager53 King Street, RR3Wolfville, NS B4P 2R3Email: linda@business-dynamics.comPhone: 1 888 412-1067

Resources and References:Re-imagine! by Tom PetersGood to Great by Jim CollinsThe Popcorn Report by Faith PopcornClicking by Faith Popcorn and Lys MarigoldBoom, Echo, Bust by David FootHow to Succeed Without Working So Damn Hard by Robert KriegelThe Roaring 2000s by Harry S. DentThe Millionaire in You by Michael LeBoeufBe Your Own Brand by David McNally and Karl SpeakAge Wave and Age Power by Ken DychtwaldUnleashing The Idea Virus by Seth GodinThe Next Big Thing is Really Small by Jack Uldrich and Deb Newberry A New Brand World by Scott Bedburywww. hsdent.comwww.suite101.comwww.archives.cbc.cawww.thethomasyaccatogroup.comwww.giampapainstitute.comwww.trendsetters.comwww.netwalk.comwww.powerwomen.cawww.springwise.comwww.museummarketingtips.comwww.c-boom.comwww.business-dynamics.com

services will be delivered. Like all living systems,the business environment must move throughcycles of change and growth to stay healthy.

During the 1920s and 30s, it was the growth oflarge department stores that changed traditional shop-ping. The suburban malls of the 1950s and 60s pulledshoppers out of the downtown core. The franchisingboom of the 1970s and 80s steamrolled many ‘maand pa’ shops. In the 1990s and on, big box retailersforced businesses to rethink competition. How busi-ness responds to this next cycle will depend on theirwillingness to see change as an opportunity.

Ultimately, the consumer is in charge. Knowingwhat they want, when they want it, and treatingthem with awesome respect is always the road tobusiness success. NOW is the time to plan for theirunbridled spending.

eBay runs the largestauction site on theInternet. The company waslaunched on Labor Day in1995 and by 2000, eBayhad more than 22 millionusers generating merchan-dise sales of several billiondollars; a revenue streamof hundreds of millions;profits in the tens of mil-lions and a market capi-talization of more than$13 billion. At any onetime, there are approxi-mately five million articlesoffered for sale on eBay.

a m o d e l o f

s u c c e s s

24 Here They Come!

Don’t assume that the

future will hold back

and wait until you’re

ready. The future

waits for no man,

woman or company.

Email your comments to: luke@business-dynamics.com

The Tao of PoohHow can you get very far,If you don’t know Who You Are?How can you do what you ought,If you don’t know What You’ve Got?And if you don’t know Which To DoOf all the things in front of you, Then what you’ll have when you are throughIs just a mess without a clueOf all the best that can come trueIf you know What and Which and Who.