1

Hello Garci, Election Fraud and NAMFREL Blinked! Manuel A. Alcuaz, Jr.

I should have written this after the election last year. I did not because:

I could not get regional and provincial breakdowns of NAMFREL’s election count.

NAMFREL and Church leaders whom I trusted declared that there was no massive fraud.

The Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) through its President Fernando R. Capalla, DD. said in their statement on June 1 that, “If there were reports of cheating locally or regionally, the bishops cannot say that there was massive cheating”. As late as June 2005 Mr. Jose Concepcion said that NAMFREL records couldn’t prove poll fraud. He added that Garcilliano was not among the COMELEC officials in charge of Mindanao. He even added that NAMFREL did a quick count in Tawi-tawi, “We had the highest return in Tawi-tawi and I must say the result of the elections – we got copies of the election returns – was one of the best”.

I AM SORRY I made a mistake and this article is my confession. In the future I should be less trusting.

There is a saying, “That even the blind will see but he who does not want to see will never see”.

NAMFREL The National Citizen’s Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) is a non-partisan, nationwide organization of individuals and civic, religious, professional, business, labor, educational, youth, and non-government groups voluntarily working for the cause of free, orderly, and honest elections. While several hundred thousand NAMFREL members and volunteers have sacrificed time and money in order to make the 2004 elections free, orderly, and honest, NAMFREL leadership acted as agents of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. I would like to particularly commend the NAMFREL chapters in Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sultan Kudarat, Lanao del Norte, Sulu, Tawi-tawi, Maguindanao, and Cotabato whose efforts at the risk of personal safety made it possible for NAMFREL records to demonstrate that massive fraud took place in their provinces. My analysis indicates a probable “Dagdagr-Bawas” of 598,560 votes as shown below.

Dagdag-Bawas

% Total Voters

Basilan 103,360 75.8 136,297

Sultan Kudarat 153,761 64.9 236,768

Lanao del Sur 134,505 57.9 232,010

Sulu 60,615 41.33 146,652

Tawi-tawi 31,389 35.86 87,520

Maguindanao 53,798 19.4 277,318

Lanao del Norte 38,843 12.35 314,577

Agusan del Norte 22,289 9.17 242,944

Total 598,560

% is percentage dagdag-bawas relative to total number of votes canvassed by Congress. If we are to have honest elections in the future those who committed fraud must be identified and prosecuted. Why did Joe Concepcion ignore his provincial volunteers who reported frauds? This analysis draws from articles of Tony Abaya and Roberto Versola. But most interestingly I was guided by GMA’s conversations with Garci. In every province they spoke about incredible dagdag-bawas was evident. Except in Cotabato where Garci and company were blocked by Atty. Vidol.

HOW THE ANALYSIS WAS DONE? I did not analyze the results for all cities and provinces. Too time consuming. I used Verzola’s list ranking provinces with the highest discrepancies and GMA’s phonecalls to Garcilliano. For every province I used the COC based totals of Congress provided by the staff of a Senator who loves our country and NAMFREL’s summary of ER’s by province and city in their Terminal Report. I subtracted NAMFREL’s final count from the Congressional Canvass for each province. This I call COC increment. I then computed the % of total votes for GMA and FPJ. You will note that the reversal in percentages is most glaring when you compare the NAMFREL % with the increment %. That is the smoke that signals the fraud that was committed. While I no longer trust the top leadership of NAMFREL I trust the hundreds of thousands of volunteers. There is little reason to believe that individual citizens would band to cheat the administration. I computed the total increment in votes between COC and NAMFREL canvass and multiplied it by the

2

NAMFREL percentage of vote to compute the NAMFREL trend. I then subtracted the NAMFREL trend from the COC increment to get the dagdag for GMA and the bawas for FPJ to get the total dagdag-bawas in the province. There were a few other provinces in Mindanao where my computation (indicated dagdag-bawas of close to 10,000 votes). I ignored these since as a % of total votes it was less than 5%. For most other provinces the NAMFREL count was a good predictor of the Congressional Canvass. BASILAN While Basilan had a computed 103,360 dagdag-bawas as a percentage of total votes 75.8% was the highest.

Gary: Hello, ma’am. Good evening. GMA: Hello, dun sa Lanao del Sur at Basilan, di raw nagmamatch ang SOV sa COC. Gary: Ang sinasabi nya, nawawala na naman ho? GMA: Hindi na nag-match. Gary: Hindi na nag-mamatch?May posibilidad na hindi magmatch kung hindi nila sinunod yung individual SOV ng mga munisipyo. Pero aywan ko lang ho kung sa atin pabor o hindi. Dun naman sa Basilan at Lanao Sur, ito ho yung ginawa nilang magpataas sa inyo, maayos naman ang paggawa eh. GMA: So nag-mamatch? Gary: Oho, sa Basilan, alam nyo naman ang mga military dun eh, hindi masyadong marunong kasi silang gumawa eh.

While FPJ had 73% of the votes and GMA had 20% in the NAMFREL tally. The incremental votes in the COC’s was 88% for GMA and 6% for FPJ.

GMA % POE % Total

Voters Total

%

COC:

79,702 58%

48,685 36%

136,297 100%

NAMFREL:

12,162 20%

43,821 73%

59,647 44%

COC Increment:

67,540 88%

4,864 6%

76,650 56%

NAMFREL Trend:

15,629

56,312

Dagdag Bawas:

51,911

(51,448)

Dagdag bawas =

103,359

SULTAN KUDARAT

Sultan Kudarat has the highest computed dagdag-bawas and the 2

nd highest % at 64.9% of total votes.

Note that the final count for FPJ in the COC Canvass 40,714 was lower than his count by NAMFREL 49,330.

GMA % POE % Total Voters

Total %

COC:

125,622 53% 40,714 17%

236,768 100%

NAMFREL:

20,143 20% 49,330 49%

100,367 42%

COC Increment:

105,479 77%

(8,616) -6%

136,401 58%

NAMFREL Trend:

27,375 67,041

Dagdag Bawas:

78,104

(75,657)

Dagdag bawas =

153,761

LANAO DEL SUR

Apparently the NAMFREL Chapter detected fraud and called a press conference.

GMA: Hello Garci? Anong gagawin natin dun sa NAMFREL presscon, yung NAMFREL Lanao del Sur.

Lanao del Sur’s computed dagdag-bawas 134,505 was the second highest.

GMA % POE % Total Voters

Total %

COC:

158,74

8 68% 50,107 22%

232,010 100%

NAMFREL:

32,389 36% 42,374 47%

89,568 39%

COC Increment:

126,359 89% 7,733 5%

142,442 61%

NAMFREL Trend:

51,509 67,388

Dagdag Bawas:

74,850

(59,655)

Dagdag bawas =

134,505

SULU

Sulu had a computed 60,615 dagdag-bawas 41.33% of total votes.

GMA: Hello, meron tayong ... (?) ... E.R.? para sa Sulu? Gary: Oo ma’am, meron po. GMA: Nagco-correspond ? Gary: Oo ma’am. Lahat ho meron, hindi po naming ika-count kung ... GMA: Ok, ok.

GMA % POE % Total

Voters Total

%

COC:

78,429 53% 60,807 41%

146,652 100%

NAMFREL:

23,896 32% 45,740 61% 74,511 51%

COC Increment:

54,533 76% 15,067 21% 72,141 49%

3

NAMFREL Trend:

23,136 44,285

Dagdag Bawas:

31,397

(29,218)

Dagdag bawas =

60,615

TAWI-TAWI

In Tawi-tawi the computed dagdag-bawas was 31,389 or 35.86% of total votes.

Sa tawi-tawi, eh baka na raw ako ang matalo doon… Gary : Baka nga ho… (line faded, cut)

Garci and company really went to town in dagdag-bawas to make sure GMA would not lose. Note the increment between the COC canvass was only 9,553 votes but GMA gained 17,709 and FPJ lost 8,489.

Hey Joe what did you say about Tawi-tawi?

GMA % POE % Total Voters

Total %

COC:

33,634 38%

49,803 57%

87,520 100%

NAMFREL:

15,925 20%

58,292 75%

77,967 89%

COC Increment:

17,709 185%

(8,489) -89%

9,553 11%

NAMFREL Trend:

1,951

7,142

Dagdag Bawas:

15,758

(15,631)

Dagdag bawas =

31,389

MAGUINDANAO

Maguindanao had a computed dagdag-bawas of 53,798 which was 19.4% of total votes.

GMA: Ah dumating... dapat sigurado ang mga documents consistent sa Maguindanao. Gary: Ah, hindi ninyo naman ho masyadong problema sa Maguindanao ... Ano ho yung itinext kagabi na may mga fake precincts na ako daw ang mastermind.

GMA % POE % Total Voters

Total %

COC: 199,431 72% 63,313 23% 277,318 100%

NAMFREL: 76,695 59% 38,340 30% 129,210 47%

COC Increment: 122,736 83% 24,973 17% 148,108 53%

NAMFREL Trend: 87,912 43,947

Dagdag Bawas: 34,824 (18,974)

Dagdag bawas = 53,798

LANAO DEL NORTE

Garci and GMA had a long conversation about Lanao. Lanao del Norte only delivered 38,844 dagdag-bawas. But Norte and Sur combined delivered 177,389 dagdag-bawas which is quite big. The following is the most damming conversation.

GMA: Hello... Gary: Hello, ma’am, good morning. Ok ma’am, mas mataas ho siya pero mag-compensate po sa Lanao yan. GMA: So I will still lead by more than one M., overall? Gary: More or less, it’s the advantage ma’am. Parang ganun din ang lalabas. GMA: It cannot be less than one M.? Gary: Pipilitin ma’am natin yan. Pero as of the other day, 982. GMA: Kaya nga eh... Gary: And then if we can get more in Lanao.. GMA: Hindi pa ba tapos? Gary: Hindi pa ho, meron pa hong darating na seven municipalities. GMA: Ah ok, ok.

GMA % POE % Total Voters

Total %

COC: 130,485 41% 137,537 44% 314,577 100%

NAMFREL: 73,730 26% 115,773 40% 288,169 92%

COC Increment: 56,755 215% 21,764 82% 26,408 8%

NAMFREL Trend: 6,757 10,609

Dagdag Bawas: 49,998 11,154

Dagdag bawas = 38,844

AGUSAN DEL NORTE

Agusan was not in the Hello Garci tape. But it still delivered 22,289 dagdag-bawas.

GMA % POE % Total Voters

Total %

COC: 138,402 57% 50,866 21% 242,944 100%

NAMFREL: 72,591 55% 37,221 28% 131,698 54%

COC Increment: 65,811 59% 13,645 12% 111,246 46%

NAMFREL Trend: 61,318 31,441

Dagdag Bawas: 4,493 (17,796)

Dagdag bawas = 22,289

NORTH COTABATO

This is one province where the Garci magic did not work. There was no substantial dagdag-bawas and GMA lost by about 40K.

GMA: Hello, forty-plus daw ang talo ko dun sa Cotabato? Gary: More or less, pero hindi ho siguro sosobra ng forty ma’am. Natakot na kami Atty. Vidol.

4

GMA % POE % Total Voters

Total %

COC: 131,749 33% 171,950 43% 404,268 100%

NAMFREL: 48,672 31% 65,253 42% 157,123 39%

COC Increment: 83,077 34% 106,697 43% 247,145 61%

NAMFREL Trend: 76,558 102,639

Dagdag Bawas: 6,519 4,058

Dagdag bawas = 2,461

LACK OF DUE DILIGENCE

The above documents NAMFREL’s failure to follow thru and exercise due diligence. With half a million dagdag-bawas identified with a little analysis, there is a reason to suspect that the leadership of NAMFREL may have favored in favor of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

OTHER NAMFREL LAPSES

In NAMFREL denies fudging poll tally Philippine Daily Inquirer July 8, 2005 Joe Concepcion said, “NAMFREL results were based on a tally of election returns filled out at the precinct by school teachers and picked up by NAMFREL volunteers. These election returns are reports of actual ballot counting taken immediately after the polls close”. The quick count got off to a crawling start canvassing only 20% of the precincts in the first 4 days. But between Saturday May 15 and Sunday may 16 there was an avalanche of votes, 1,809,123 for GMA and 851,312 for FPJ. Her lead jumped by 957,811.

Date GMA FPJ GMA Lead

May 13 Thursday

1,274,165 1,178,273 95,892

324,000 370,420 (46,420)

May 14 Friday

1,598,165 1,548,693 49,472

560,053 383,087 176,966

May 15 Saturday

2,158,218 1,931,780 226,438

1,809,123 851,312 957,811

May 16 Sunday

3,967,341 2,783,092 1,184,249

How did that happen? On the night of May 15

th

NAMFREL entered votes accumulated by local chapters in Pampanga, Cebu, and Iloilo. NAMFREL’s serious lapse was lack of transparency.

In previous elections provincial and city results were visibly displayed and readily available. Last year it was very hard to even get regional breakdowns. Based on the Sunday NAMFREL results, administration supporters were demanding that FPJ and other candidates concede to GMA, who they expected would win by 3 million votes. By not revealing that they had tabulated votes primarily from Pampanga, Cebu, and Iloilo NAMFREL provided a cover for massive dagdag-bawas in Mindanao and perhaps in Pampanga, Cebu, and Iloilo. The ratio of votes for GMA versus FPJ were: Pampanga 7.69 to 1 Cebu 6.45 to 1 Iloilo 5 to 1 MOVING FORWARD

It is said that the way to hell is paved with good intentions. NAMFREL says that it does not do analysis. They just count. But to count and not compare your results with the official count is not good management practice and goes against common sense. In the future NAMFREL should make a post-audit part of its terminal report. The opposition lost a golden opportunity by attacking personalities at NAMFREL instead of asking for the Quick Count by province. Armed with such information they could have forced the review of COC’s during the Congressional Canvass. The fact that I have been able to identify close to 600,000 Dagdag-Bawas is a tribute to the value of NAMFREL Quick Count even if it was slow. I too am sorry for being a year late. But it is not too late to impeach Gloria Macapagal Arroyo for personally instigating election fraud not just protection of her votes.