Colorado Wheat Weekly Wire #231 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 03/25/16 pg. 1

Hello Colorado Wheat. I hope you had a good Easter.

Last week’s freeze event was only worth a 2c rally by the end of the week. And Easter morning brought

this to a narrow band of The Great Plains USA HRW Wheat Belt:

Maybe the snow put out the fires on 400,000 acres…

Charts and discussions follow, with the goal of giving you useful information to help you with your

business. My disclaimer remains the same: these are my sometimes rapidly changing opinions; the

markets are quite treacherous; and past performance is no guarantee…dm

Colorado Wheat Weekly Wire #231 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 03/25/16 pg. 2

One thing we know, is the wheat futures market are not on fire… flatter than a pancake right now,

ALTHOUGH this KC July chart shows a Bull Flag formation, pointing to a breakout higher, and making a

run at the $5.00 resistance again.

Thus the chart says a move is coming. It points higher, but…the market has a mind of its own. The

weekly closing futures table points how that 11-week closing highs in KC wheat are 11c away ($4.84),

with 11-week closing lows 18c below ($4.54), yet ominously, 2-week closing lows with minor sell-stops

would be expected if this week closes below $4.70. I’d say something is coming this week.

CLOSE KWK16 KWN16 KWZ16 CK16 CN16 CZ16 WK16 MWK16 MWN16 SK16

03/25 $4.72 $4.83 $5.16 $3.70 $3.75 $3.87 $4.63 $5.14 $5.23 $9.11

03/18 $4.70 $4.80 $5.14 $3.67 $3.72 $3.86 $4.63 $5.09 $5.18 $8.98

03/11 $4.83 $4.93 $5.25 $3.65 $3.70 $3.83 $4.76 $5.15 $5.24 $8.96

03/04 $4.69 $4.78 $5.11 $3.58 $3.64 $3.78 $4.61 $4.98 $5.05 $8.79

02/26 $4.54 $4.65 $4.99 $3.60 $3.64 $3.78 $4.52 $4.90 $4.99 $8.64

02/19 $4.66 $4.77 $5.11 $3.69 $3.74 $3.87 $4.67 $4.98 $5.06 $8.81

02/12 $4.54 $4.65 $4.99 $3.64 $3.69 $3.82 $4.63 $4.88 $4.95 $8.77

02/05 $4.64 $4.73 $5.07 $3.71 $3.76 $3.89 $4.71 $4.97 $5.04 $8.71

01/29 $4.82 $4.92 $5.25 $3.77 $3.82 $3.93 $4.85 $5.06 $5.12 $8.85

01/22 $4.81 $4.93 $5.23 $3.75 $3.80 $3.92 $4.80 $5.03 $5.09 $8.77

01/15 $4.84 $4.94 $5.26 $3.68 $3.73 $3.85 $4.79 $5.04 $5.11 $8.79

01/08 $4.83 $4.92 $5.26 $3.63 $3.69 $3.83 $4.84 $5.08 $5.17 $8.68

Colorado Wheat Weekly Wire #231 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 03/25/16 pg. 3

I would point out that soybeans set a new blue font, a new 11-week closing high, which means at least

one round of buy-stops were triggered, and a higher close for the week would bring in round 2...so

beans possibly could help wheat, maybe. Corn is not helping, or hurting KC wheat. I think the same thing

could be said about Chgo wheat. However, MGEX (Minny) spring wheat is supportive, and a 2c higher

close for this coming week up there would bring in round 2 of relatively big short covering.

Spring wheat is firm because it’s planting season, and the expectations are spring wheat loses noticeable

acres this spring to a much more profitable crop… pulses, peas, dry edible beans or lentils.

This is Minny July:

Right now, Hard Red Winter longs are cheering for the MGEX contract to move higher, and have spring

wheat drag hard winter with it.

Here is a soybean chart:

Near as I can figure out, one of the most bullish things about soybeans are…everyone is bearish.

Colorado Wheat Weekly Wire #231 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 03/25/16 pg. 4

Also, an early and extended USA planting season would tend to favor corn acres. Here is Dec corn,

basically doing nothing, yet…blue line is $3.93, and red line is $3.78:

I said “yet” …because corn will undoubtedly be forced to do something one of these days.

THIS Thursday might move ALL of these charts. Why this Thursday? Because USDA’s NASS will release

two key fundamental inputs. Stocks-in-all-positions will give clues about the usage pace, AND also, we

will get the always interesting Prospective Plantings.

Besides these KEY reports, and besides the USA weather, Indian wheat harvest has begun under less

than ideal conditions, and this article suggest farmers may face delays in getting cash for their new crop.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/wheat-procurement-from-apr-1-state-awaits-

funds/214368.html

Colorado Wheat Weekly Wire #231 danmaltby.riskmgmt@gmail.com 03/25/16 pg. 5

Anyways, these posted bids didn’t move much this week, but I think they will be quite a bit different

next Friday.

Date Lamar Chey. Wells Burlington Holyoke Roggen

03/25 $3.82-$4.02 $4.07 $3.92-$3.94 $3.82-$3.86 $4.02-$4.02

03/18 $3.85-$4.00 $4.05 $3.90-$3.92 $3.80-$3.84 $4.00-$4.00

03/11 $3.98-$4.13 $4.23 $4.03-$4.05 $3.93-$3.94 $4.18-$4.18

03/04 $3.84-$3.99 $4.09 $3.89-$3.91 $3.78-$3.81 $4.04-$4.04

02/26 $3.58-$3.84 $3.93 $3.68-$3.75 $3.63-$3.65 $3.88-$3.88

02/19 $3.72-$3.92 $4.07 $3.82-$3.89 $3.74-$3.79 $4.02-$4.02

02/12 $3.59-$3.79 $3.94 $3.69-$3.76 $3.61-$3.65 $3.89-$3.89

02/05 $3.69-$3.89 $4.04 $3.79-$3.86 $3.71-$3.75 $3.99-$3.99

01/29 $3.87-$4.12 $4.17 $3.94-$3.97 $3.89-$3.93 $4.12-$4.12

01/22 $3.86-$4.06 $4.16 $3.93-$3.96 $3.88-$3.92 $4.11-$4.11

BASIS Lamar Chey. Wells Burlington Holyoke Roggen

03/25 -90, -70 -65 -80, -78 -90, -86 -70, -70

03/18 -85, -70 -65 -80, -78 -90, -86 -70, -70

03/11 -85, -70 -60 -80, -78 -90, -89 -65, -65

03/04 -85, -70 -60 -80, -78 -91, -88 -65, -65

02/26 -85, -65 -50 -75, -68 -80, -79 -55, -55

02/19 -85, -65 -50 -75, -68 -83, -79 -55, -55

02/12 -85, -65 -50 -75, -68 -83, -79 -55, -55

02/05 -85, -65 -50 -75, -68 -83, -79 -55, -55

01/29 -85, -60 -55 -78, -75 -83, -79 -60, -60

01/22 -85, -65 -55 -78, -75 -83, -79 -60, -60

This week, and this Thursday especially, will be important to wheat prices this season.