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Heavy Lift Vessel Strategy Analysis for Offshore Wind. Iain Dinwoodie. [email protected]. Centre for Doctoral Training, University of Strathclyde. http:// www.strath.ac.uk/windenergy. Overview. Motivation Objectives Methodology Results Future Work. Image: Nuon. Motivation. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Heavy Lift Vessel Strategy Analysis for Offshore Wind
Centre for Doctoral Training, University of Strathclyde
Iain Dinwoodie
http://www.strath.ac.uk/windenergy
Overview
Motivation
Objectives
Methodology
Results
Future Work
Image: Nuon
Motivation
Large repairs costs a lot of money
Failure behaviour uncertain and unpredictableSpecialist vessel costs variable and potentially outwith operator control
Image: REpower
Motivation
Failures requiring specialist vessels are less frequent but higher impact:
Image:
MPI
Image:
Subse
a 7
Image:
Win
dca
tVessel Type Transfer Field Support Jack - up
Typical day rate
~ £1750 ~ £9500 ~ £100 – 250k
Baseline λ 1.8 0.4 0.2
Operation time < 1/2 day 1 day 2 days
Direct cost impact
Low Low High
Objectives
Investigate a range of possible operational strategies
Understand when different strategies are optimal – wind farm size analysisQuantify how sensitive strategies are operational characteristics – failure rate analysis
Strategy Specification
Fix on fail (spot market)Batch fix on fail (x fails before commission)Short term (1-6) month yearly charterPurchase
35 40 45 50 55 60 65£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
Spot market Spot Market fit 6 Month 6 Month fit1 year 1 Year fit Opex OPEX fit
Water Depth (m)
Da
y r
ate
( t
ho
us
an
d £
s)
Methodology
Markov Chain Monte Carlo failure simulation
High degree of fidelity while remaining computationally efficient.
State A State B
p(A, B)
p(B, A)
p(B, B)p(A, A)
Time series climate repair model
Methodology – Climate Model
Short term access windows
Correlation
Seasonality
Annual distribution
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Annual Charter Batch FoF Purchase
Number of Turbines
Lif
eti
me
co
st
(£
mill
ion
s)
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
Annual Charter Batch FoF Purchase
Number of Turbines
Le
va
lise
d C
os
ts (
£/k
Wh
)
Results
Baseline analysis
Results
Sensitivity Analysis
20 40 60 80 1000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800Batch Repair
0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6Number of Turbines
20 40 60 80 1000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Fix on Fail
Lif
eti
me
co
st
(£m
illio
ns
)
20 40 60 80 1000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Purchase
Fail rate, λ
Future work
Full development of operational map identifying when different strategies are optimalHybrid strategies and linking operational choice to strategic decision making
Further investigation of very far offshore strategies such as ‘maintenance island’
