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www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Heat Roadmap Europe – a Vision for 2050
Brussels, February 13th, 2019
Susana Paardekooper
[email protected]; @SusanaPaardekoo
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Our purpose in HRE4
• Creating scientific evidence to support long-term
energy strategies at local, national, and EU level and
empower the transition to a low-carbon energy system
• By quantifying the impact of various alternatives for
addressing the heating and cooling sectors
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
HRE1, 2, 3, 4
• Study 1 (2012): will district heating play a role in the decarbonisation of the European energy system?
• Study 2 (2013): what is the balance between heat savings and heat supply at an EU level?
• Study 3 (2015, STRATEGO WP2): low-carbon heating and cooling strategies for 5 member states
• Study 4 (2016-2019): integrated low-carbon heating and cooling strategies for 14 member states
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Heat Roadmaps for transitions
• Decarbonise in line with Paris Agreement
• Technically possible, socio-economically feasible
• Consider local nature of heating and cooling
• Consider the wider energy system
Everywhere
Deep energy savings
Combine savings and supply
~30-50% demand reduction
Urban areas
District energy networks
High demand density areas
Supply ~half of energy demand
Rural areas
Mainly heat pumps
Low demand density areas
Remaining ~half of the energy demand
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Heat Roadmaps for transitions
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Energy savings
-50%
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Au
stri
a
Belg
ium
Cze
ch
Rep
ub
lic
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Germ
an
y
Hu
ng
ary
Italy
Neth
erl
an
ds
Po
lan
d
Ro
man
ia
Sp
ain
Sw
ed
en
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
HR
E14
% c
han
ge i
n d
eli
vere
d s
pace h
eati
ng
dem
an
ds
fro
m
20
15
BL 2050 HRE 2050
• Current policy: 35% reduction in space heating
• HRE: 40% reduction in space heating
• Current policy: annual refurbishment rate between 0,7% and 1,0%
• HRE: annual refurbishment rate at 1,5% to 2%, and deeper renovations when they occur
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Energy savings
• This is no evidence of a trade-off!
• Industry and service sector are highly feasible
• Tipping points
Total energy system costs (M€/year)
Residential sector savings additional to the Baseline
0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Perc
en
tag
e o
f m
ark
et
share
co
vere
d b
y D
H
0% 221608 221671 222003 222533 223992 227082
5% 221380 221418 221725 222232 223671 226733
12% 220943 220960 221243 221726 223138 226182
20% 220418 220413 220671 221135 222521 225543
30% 219899 219872 220106 220546 221908 224906
39% 219550 219497 219710 220130 221465 224441
49% 219420 219342 219542 219930 221250 224198
58% 219551 219446 219625 219987 221290 224209
68% 220202 220072 220226 220563 221844 224740
78% 221693 221540 221669 221982 223237 226110
90% 231543 231366 231462 231757 232981 235837
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Total heat supply
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
AT BE CZ DE ES FI FR HU IT NL PL RO SE UK HRE 14
% o
f h
eat
dem
an
d s
up
pli
ed
by D
H
Baseline 2015 ꓕꓔ Interval of feasible DH share in HRE 2050 Minimum recommended share of DH in HRE 2050
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
District heat supply• Different types of heat start to
play a different role
• CHPs operate to the
electricity markets and ‘pair’
with large heat pumps
• HPs combined: ~75%
• Boilers are almost irrelevant
• The constraints are mostly
temporal and geographic
38%
4%
25%
2%
9%
1%
5%
2%
14%
District heating source shares in HRE 2050
CHP plants
Geothermal
Heat pumps
Solar thermal
Industrial excess
Electric boilers
Fuel boilers
Waste incineration
Fuel production heat
recovery
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Role of local resources
• Energy efficiency first principle!
• Understanding of temporality
and spatial dimension are
necessary here:
• Variety of baseload sources
• Geographic availability
• Development of infrastructure
• Requires planning and strategic
development of RES
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Local planning
Aalst/Denderleeuw (BE)Bollenstreek (NL)
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Energy system coherency
• Use electrification of key
sectors
• Heat pumps and chillers are
key!
• Use flexibility and synergies to
enable further decarbonisation
• Better use of variable RES
• Better use of grid capacity
• Avoid peak capacity
4648.713441.95
2112.17
617.87
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
BL 2015 BL 2050 CD 2050 HRE 2050
CO
2em
issi
on
s, M
ton
nes/
year
PES
, T
Wh
/year
Primary Energy Supply, HRE14 countries
Biomass Coal Geothermal elec. Geothermal heat Hydro
Natural gas Nuclear Oil Solar elec. Solar heat
Waste Wave & tidal Wind Export/Import CO2-emissions
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Decarbonisation is possible…
• Efficiency first
• Use renewable energy capacity
better
• Flexibility and storage
• Reducing pressure on the
power sector compared to full
electrification
• Much more in peak capacity
than in grid 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1990 2015 BL 2050 CD 2050 HRE 2050C
O2
em
issi
on
s, M
ton
nes/
year
Total Other sectors Non-energy fuels Energy and industry
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
…but change is required!
• This requires a radical change
from past rates of change!
• Implement savings
• Construct infrastructure
• Affect change in
households
• Targets are in FED
• This requires regional
infrastructure decisions and
investments7%
10% 18% 31%
80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1990 2005 2015 2030 2050 HRE
Non-renewable heatRenewable heat
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
This project has received funding from
the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.
Thank you!
Contact: [email protected]
Heat Roadmap Europe: www.heatroadmap.eu
Pan-European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu/maps
Twitter: @HeatRoadmapEU , @SusanaPaardekoo
• Country and general Heat
Roadmaps
• Guidelines
• Maps: Peta4.2
• Energy models
• Interactive spreadsheets
• Profile of H/C
• Baseline developments for H/C
• Scenario results
• Factsheets, Webinars, Videos, etc…
