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HEAT PUMPS IN EUROPE
Martin ForsénPresident EHPA
Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
2 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
heat pump sales in Europeby energy source
Trend #1: air source
3 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
sanitary hot water heat pumpsTrend #2: hot water
4 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
heat pump sales 2014by category
5
market performance = sales per 1000 households
Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
Ireland Time
Demand
Introduction Growth Profit Decline
UK
Sweden
FranceGermanyFinlandAustria
Product life cycle curve
Switzerland
Market introduction
• Few • Early adopters• Engineers• Expensive products• Poor awareness
Customers
• Few SMEs*• Few retailers/installers • Poor profit• Poor competition• Lack of technical know how
Manufacturers
*SME small and medium size enterprise
Required activities from industry
• Forming of industry association • Development of technical standards• Training of installers• R&D
Industry infrastrurcture
• Strategic allies (electric utilities) • Dissemination of information • Technology procurement program• Subsidy schemes
Marketing activites
Attack
Ireland Time
Demand
Introduction Growth Profit Decline
Trigger factor!
Market introduction
UK
• Subsidy scheme• Technology procurement program• Legislation
Growth
• Growing numbers of customers• Affordable to a wider group• Risk of poor quality• Improved awareness
Customers
• Large number• Growing number of retailers/installers • Improving profit• Competition moving from poor to high• R&D• Improving technical know how
Manufacturers
• Development of product quality schemes • Development of technical standards• Monitoring of legislation and policies• Lobbying
Industry infrastructure
• Advertisement• Enhancing the sales channels• Dissemination of information
Marketing activites
Required activities from industry
Expansion
Time
Demand
Introduction Growth Profit Decline
France
Growth• Subsidy scheme in existence• Strong support from electric utility• Product quality label in existence• Training scheme in existence• Accredited test laboratory• Several national producers
Profit/Maturity
• Levelling out• Laggards and new customer groups• Affordable to a wider group• Common knowledge
Customers
• Decreasing number• High competition• Improving relations with retailers/installers • Good profit• R&D
Manufacturers
• Development of product quality schemes • Development of technical standards• Monitoring of legislation and policies• Lobbying
Industry infrastructure
• Building stronger brand names• Enhancing the sales channels• Dissemination of information
Marketing activites
Required activities from industry
Consolidation
Time
Demand
Introduction Growth Profit Decline
Switzerland
• Number of manufacturers has decreased• Product quality label in existence• Training scheme in existence• Accredited test laboratory• Strong industry association
Profit/Maturity
Maturity/Decline
• Laggards and new customer groups• 2:nd generation of customers• Common knowledge
Customers
• High competition• Improving relations with retailers/installers • Decreasing profit• Niche products added values• R&D
Manufacturers
• Development of product quality schemes • Development of technical standards• Monitoring of legislation and policies• Lobbying
Industry infrastructure
• Building stronger brand names• Enhancing the sales channels• Dissemination of information• Service and maintenance
Marketing activites
Required activities from industry
Innovation
Time
Demand
Introduction Growth Profit Decline
Sweden
• Niche products• New market sectors• New customer groups• Replacement market
Maturity/Decline
15 Martin Forsén 2015-12-01
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Heat pump sales in Sweden
Ground source, Exhaust air and Air to Water (excluding Air to air)
16 Martin Forsén 2015-12-01
19461949
19521955
19581961
19641967
19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
20120
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
Use of heating oil in Sweden [m3]
- 94 %!!!!!
Consequences of the use of heat pumps in Sweden
17 Martin Forsén 2015-12-01
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Use of electricity for heating purposes in Sweden [TWh]
29% !!!!
18 Martin Forsén 2015-12-01
Source: Naturvårdsverket
GHG-Emissions related to energy use in buildings
- 84 %!!!
190519101915192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
10
00
-to
ns
CO
2-e
qu
iva
len
ts
19 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
- actual sales 2014
market potentialsif Sweden was everywhere
total: 4.9 mio
20 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
21 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
price ratio: electricity / gas - ordered
22 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
What the future will bring
Energy smartness
• Smart grids• Smart thermal grids• Smart homes• Smart appliances
23
Domestic energy storage
Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
24
Computer heating
Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
Heat is generated by computationElectricity costs refunded to the host
25
New Materials
Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
Graphene
• 100 times stronger than steel• 10 times higher thermal conductivity
26 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
Vision
Heat pumps the number oneheating technology!
Realised already in; Sweden, Finland, Norway,
27 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
Thank you for the attention
28
Heat pumpification of the society
Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
29 Martin Forsén 17-11-2015
Elpannor Direk-tverkande el
Oljepannor Äldre värmepump
Ved Pellets Fjärrvärme Nyproduk-tion
Gas Annat
2010 0.209872228895927
0.208362454952495
0.269848203560118
0.0661160860543846
0.0886726001965709
0.0621164136726002
0.0202741072403626
0.0368461286447526
0.0187534126897456
0.0191383640930436
2011 0.20045806906272
0.229457364341085
0.199545454545455
0.0869626497533474
0.0884883720930233
0.0785764622973925
0.0353735024665257
0.04276955602537
0.0182980972515856
0.0200704721634954
2012 0.213827601002687
0.205855784648043
0.172835602929774
0.109949338693043
0.114025579067019
0.0946003929450553
0.0233772197255406
0.0495697929134391
0.0100607484022493
0.00589793967314799
2013 0.21720399900851
0.209368751549202
0.183970090060315
0.115677104850037
0.109618276460382
0.0783219036602495
0.038793687515492
0.0352879451375692
0.00744691398826737
0.00431132776997438
2015 0.181556264114802
0.218305001911533
0.130658237526752
0.169783582883696
0.113623912692188
0.0860465941203596
0.0362876049865404
0.045360491559693
0.00817032748312135
0.0102079827213142
2.5%
7.5%
12.5%
17.5%
22.5%
27.5%
Vilken typ av värmesystem har de värmepumpar ni installerat under det senaste året procentuellt sett ersatt eller komplet-
terat?
30 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
split of heat pump sales 2010:by type
H-air/water: 14%
H-ground/water: 14%
Reversible air-air w/heating: 60%
Reversible other: 6%
Sanitary hot water: 4%
Exhaust air: 3%
31 Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01
split of heat pump sales 2014:by type
H-air/water: 20%
H-ground/water: 11%
Reversible air-air w/heating: 48%
Reversible other: 6%
Sanitary hot water: 14%
Exhaust air: 2%