Health Benefits of Improvements in Air Quality: Background and Analysis Options

Prepared for Northwest Power and Conservation Council by Abt Associates Inc.

August 2013

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Contents

Background

– Health impacts of air pollution

– Steps of Health Benefits Assessment (HBA)

– Applied example: Impacts of Chesapeake Bay TMDLs

Analysis options

– Screening-level analysis of PM impacts

– EPA RIA-style analysis for CAPs

– EPA RIA-style analysis for CAPs and HAPs

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Health Impacts of Air Pollution

Source: Partiallyadapted fromWHO 2005

MortalityChronic illness: MI,

asthma, stroke, cancer

Acute illness: Respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations and

ER visits

Sub-clinical effects, labor productivity effects

Seve

rity

Affected Population

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Steps of HBA

•Estimated activity

•Emission factors for air pollutants

1. Change in Emissions

•Dispersion modeling• Specialized software • Domain definition • Meteorology & air pollution sampling data

2. Reductions in Ambient Air Pollution •Epidemiological relationships

•Baseline health data

•Population size

3. Improvements in Health Outcomes

•Unit values for health effects

•Direct increases in value added

4. Value of Avoided Mortality & Morbidity

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Chesapeake Study Setting

Analysis Element Analytical Choice

Modeled year 2025 (implementation year)

Changes in emissions (NH4)

1. Activity: Projected animal population in region2. NH4 emissions factors without BMP (baseline

scenario) and with BMP (control scenario)

Changes in air quality (PM2.5)

Ammonia is a precursor to fine particulate (PM2.5) matter. S-R matrix dispersion model was used for estimation.

Changes in health outcomes

Followed EPA PM RIA in quantifying reductions in premature mortality and several morbidity impacts.

Monetary benefits Followed EPA’s PM RIA in selection of unit values

Chesapeake TMDLs will result in BMPs reducing ammonia emissions from livestock management

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Chesapeake Results for 2025

• Baseline emissions (no BMPs) : 71K tons NH4 / year

• Control emissions (with BMPs):68K tons NH4 / year

• County-level improvement in air quality in 2025:

• Max (DC): -0.4 ug/m3 PM2.5

• Several affected states

• 17-46 fewer premature adult deaths • 2-20 fewer MIs; 15 fewer

hospitalizations; 17 fewer ER, etc. • Economic value of avoiding

mortality and morbidity at 3% discount rate: $161,536 - $412,746 (Thous. 2010$)

Reductions in PM2.5

Monetary benefits

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RTF Woodstove Analysis Setup

One model year

Two region-specific scenarios:

– Baseline: Some winter heat is generated by burning wood;

– Control: No winter heat is generated by burning wood, but there is a compensating increase in electricity use

Emissions of SOx, VOC, PM2.5, PM10, NOx, HAPS may be affected. All options will:

– Use EPA's Residential Wood Combustion Tool to estimate wood burning emissions baseline (at county- or grid-level, depending on the option).

– Require development and implementation of an approach to model commensurate changes in EGU emissions

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Screening-Level Analysis

Impacts on PM2.5 onlyAir Quality• S-R matrix dispersion model in EPA’s COBRA to estimate reductions in ambient PM2.5 based on county-level

changes in emissions of direct PM2.5 and its precursors. • County level output • No uncertainty assessment

EPA’s set of PM2.5 epidemiological linksHealth• COBRA to quantify premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity impacts using standard EPA PM2.5 health

impact functions and internal data.• County-level output• No uncertainty assessment

EPA’s set of values for PM2.5 endpointsValue• COBRA to value premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity impacts using standard EPA PM2.5 unit values

and internal data.• County-level output• No uncertainty assessment

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EPA RIA-style analysis for CAPs

Impacts on CAPsAir Quality• CMAQ dispersion model to estimate reductions in criteria air pollutants (NOx, SOx, PM, CO, O3, Lead) using grid-

level emissions. Additional data: meteorology and emissions from all other sources of air pollution.• 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid • No uncertainty assessment

EPA’s set of CAPs epidemiological linksHealth• BenMAP to quantify premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity impacts using standard EPA CAPs health

impact functions and internal data.• 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid• Health impact uncertainty assessment

EPA’s set of values for CAPs endpointsValue• BenMAP to value premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity impacts using standard EPA CAPs unit values

and internal data.• 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid• Valuation uncertainty assessment

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EPA RIA-style analysis for CAPs & HAPs

Impacts of CAPs and select HAPsAir Quality• CMAQ dispersion model to estimate reductions in all air pollutants (NOx, SOx, PM, CO, O3, Lead, HAPs) using

grid-level emissions. Additional data: meteorology and emissions from all other sources of air pollution.• 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid • No uncertainty assessment

EPA’s CAPs epi-links + HAPs researchHealth• BenMAP to quantify CAPs health impacts using standard EPA functions and internal data.• Additional research needed to determine if there is sufficient HAPs epidemiological data to estimate impacts• 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid• Health impact uncertainty assessment for CAPs, unclear if possible for HAPs

EPA’s CAPs values + HAPs researchValue• BenMAP to value CAP health endpoints using standard EPA unit values and internal data.• Additional research needed to determine if there are HAPs endpoints that can be valued• 30x30 km grid or 12x12 km grid• Valuation uncertainty assessment for CAPs, unclear if possible for HAPs

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Questions and Open Discussion

Contact Information

Frank Divita: (301) 347-5860 or Frank_Divita@abtassoc.com

Anna Belova: (301) 347-5304 or Anna_Belova@abtassoc.com