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Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute (AEI) [email protected] “Advancing Economic Growth: Investing In Health” Chatham House, London

Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe

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Health and Demography: The Achilles’ Heel of Post-Socialist Development in Europe. Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute (AEI) [email protected] “Advancing Economic Growth: Investing In Health” Chatham House, London June 22-23, 2005. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Health and Demography: The Achilles Heel of Post-Socialist Development in EuropeNicholas EberstadtHenry Wendt Chair in Political EconomyAmerican Enterprise Institute (AEI)[email protected]

    Advancing Economic Growth: Investing In HealthChatham House, LondonJune 22-23, 2005

  • Health and Demography Limit The Development Possibilities for Post-Socialist Europe Today:

    Inter-Linked Development-Impeding Characteristics Include:

    Pervasive Population Decline (Driven by Sharp Imbalance between Births and Deaths)

    Fertility Collapse (Portending Youth Drought and Rapid Ageing)

    Extreme and Rapid Population Ageing at Low Levels of GDP/Capita

    Serious and Enduring Health Problems, Concentrated in Economically Active Age GroupsProblems Resistant to Rapid Melioration

  • Post-Socialist Europes Demography:When Abnormal Becomes The NormPost-Socialist Europes Health and Demographic Challenges are without Historical Precedent

    They characterize the Whole Region (not just some States)

    These Dem/Health Problems are Deeply Embedded: i.e., Policy Interventions to address them may result in unusually Slow and Limited Gains

  • Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population DatabaseFemale

    Chart4

    -3377-316532172997

    -4139-350239543323

    -6121-382658943635

    -6277-396360873777

    -5578-366954973523

    -5217-329951573224

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    -2304-338930134326

    -3622-359951845082

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    -765-123123952769

    -327-42411921225

    -195-3468431228

    -54-91260380

    -10-2749124

    -1-3314

    Female

    Male

    2000

    2025

    2000

    2025

    Russia: Population Sctructure 2000 vs. 2025 (medium variant projection)

    Male Mort by regions

    The Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2002, Goskomstat of Russia, pp. 241-249

    RegionDemYrbkMale Standardized Mortality (all causes)

    Republic of Ingushetia36775.9

    Republic of Dagestan351,224.1

    Rep. of North Ossetiya Alania401,585.0

    Rep. of Karachaevo-Cherkessia391,601.9

    Republic of Kabardino Balkaria371,780.5

    Moscow201,804.8

    Tyumenskaya oblast661,810.8

    Republic of Kalmykia381,840.7

    Stavropolsky Krai431,848.8

    Republic of Tatarstan511,867.2

    Murmanskaya oblast291,877.8

    Krasnodarsky Krai421,906.9

    Republic of Bashkortostan481,916.6

    St. Petersburg321,939.1

    Belgorodskaya oblast31,960.3

    Novosibirskaya oblast821,964.3

    Altaisky Krai751,969.9

    Republic of Mordovia501,990.6

    Rostovskaya oblast461,990.8

    Omskaya oblast831,992.6

    Tomskaya oblast841,993.4

    Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)882,005.1

    Magadanskaya oblast942,005.5

    Volgogradskaya oblast452,010.2

    Republic of Chuvashia532,015.0

    Penzenskaya oblast572,017.9

    Kirovskaya oblast542,072.1

    Voronezhskaya oblast62,079.6

    Orenburgskaya oblast562,090.4

    Republic of Komi232,094.5

    Ulyanovskaya oblast622,095.4

    Kurganskaya oblast642,099.7

    Tambovskaya oblast162,101.9

    Lipetskaya oblast112,114.0

    Saratovskaya oblast612,114.6

    Chelyabinskaya oblast692,135.2

    Astrakhanskaya oblast442,159.4

    Kurskaya oblast102,161.4

    Republic of Udmurtia522,163.8

    Primorsky Krai892,169.3

    Orlovskaya oblast132,180.2

    Sverdlovskaya oblast652,190.8

    Republic of Buryatia722,194.5

    Republic of Khakassia742,215.6

    Krasnoyarsky Krai762,224.0

    Kamchatskaya oblast922,224.8

    Republic of Mari El492,229.6

    Arkhangelskaya oblast242,251.0

    Evreiskaya Aut. Obl.962,253.8

    Permskaya oblast582,269.0

    Moscow oblast122,269.3

    Bryanskaya oblast42,269.9

    Samarskaya oblast602,271.6

    Nizhegorodskaya obl.552,272.6

    Republic of Altai712,273.4

    Kemerovskaya oblast812,286.8

    Kaliningradskaya oblast272,293.1

    Vologodskaya oblast262,297.3

    Kaluzhskaya oblast82,304.0

    Amurskaya oblast912,316.8

    Ryazanskaya oblast142,352.6

    Khabarovsky Krai902,360.7

    Sakhalinskaya oblast952,389.4

    Chitinskaya oblast852,408.6

    Republic of Karelia222,446.8

    Irkutskaya oblast792,454.1

    Kostromskaya oblast92,457.6

    Yaroslavskaya oblast192,474.1

    Tulskaya oblast182,486.0

    Vladimirskaya oblast52,486.8

    Smolenskaya oblast152,506.5

    Ivanovskaya oblast72,511.5

    Republic of Tyva732,559.6

    Leningradskaya oblast282,668.4

    Tverskaya oblast172,684.4

    Novgorodskaya oblast302,705.7

    Pskovskaya oblast312,766.4

    Male Mort by regions

    775.9

    1224.1

    1585

    1601.9

    1780.5

    1804.8

    1810.8

    1840.7

    1848.8

    1867.2

    1877.8

    1906.9

    1916.6

    1939.1

    1960.3

    1964.3

    1969.9

    1990.6

    1990.8

    1992.6

    1993.4

    2005.1

    2005.5

    2010.2

    2015

    2017.9

    2072.1

    2079.6

    2090.4

    2094.5

    2095.4

    2099.7

    2101.9

    2114

    2114.6

    2135.2

    2159.4

    2161.4

    2163.8

    2169.3

    2180.2

    2190.8

    2194.5

    2215.6

    2224

    2224.8

    2229.6

    2251

    2253.8

    2269

    2269.3

    2269.9

    2271.6

    2272.6

    2273.4

    2286.8

    2293.1

    2297.3

    2304

    2316.8

    2352.6

    2360.7

    2389.4

    2408.6

    2446.8

    2454.1

    2457.6

    2474.1

    2486

    2486.8

    2506.5

    2511.5

    2559.6

    2668.4

    2684.4

    2705.7

    2766.4

    Male Standardized Mortality (all causes)

    Region

    Number of deaths per 100,000 population

    Male Standardized Mortality (all causes), Russia 2001

    Pop Projections 2000-2025

    Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base, accessed on April 11, 2005

    United Nations Population Division, WorldPopulation Prospects: The 2002 Revision

    Projected Total Population: Russia, 2000-2025

    YearCensus ProjectionsUN Projections (new)UN Projections (old)

    2000146,731146,560145,491

    2001146,018144,877144,664

    2002145,266144,082143,752

    2003144,586143,246142,973

    2004143,974142,397141,837

    2005143,420143,202140,920

    2006142,893140,724140,058

    2007142,369139,909139,247

    2008141,844139,105138,476

    2009141,313138,304137,724

    2010140,771140,028136,976

    2011140,214136,696136,229

    2012139,641135,892135,491

    2013139,051135,084134,760

    2014138,440134,265134,034

    2015137,810136,696133,314

    2016137,161132,574132,599

    2017136,494131,702131,885

    2018135,809130,816131,166

    2019135,106129,920130,435

    2020134,385133,101129,687

    2021133,648128,112128,290

    2022132,894127,200128,134

    2023132,123126,282127,332

    2024131,336125,359126,515

    2025130,534129,230125,687

    Pop Projections 2000-2025

    145491146731

    144664146018

    143752145266

    142973144586

    141837143974

    140920143420

    140058142893

    139247142369

    138476141844

    137724141313

    136976140771

    136229140214

    135491139641

    134760139051

    134034138440

    133314137810

    132599137161

    131885136494

    131166135809

    130435135106

    129687134385

    128290133648

    128134132894

    127332132123

    126515131336

    125687130534

    UN Projections

    Census Projections

    Year

    Total Population (Thousands)

    Projected Total Population: Russia, 2000-2025

    Births, Deaths, Nat Increase

    Source: The Russian Federation Ejegodnik: 2004 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2004), Table 2.25,

    Source for 2004 figures: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, accessed April 15, 2005.

    RUSSIA

    Births, Deaths, and Natural Increase

    YearBirthsDeathsNatural Increase

    19602,782,353886,0901,896,263

    19651,990,520958,7891,031,731

    19661,957,763974,299983,464

    19671,851,0411,017,034834,007

    19681,816,5091,040,096776,413

    19691,847,5921,106,640740,952

    19701,903,7131,131,183772,530

    19711,974,6371,143,359831,278

    19722,014,6381,181,802832,836

    19731,994,6211,214,204780,417

    19742,079,8121,222,495857,317

    19752,106,1471,309,710796,437

    19762,146,7111,352,950793,761

    19772,156,7241,387,986768,738

    19782,179,0301,417,377761,653

    19792,178,5421,490,057688,485

    19802,202,7791,525,755677,024

    19812,236,6081,524,286712,322

    19822,328,0441,504,200823,844

    19832,478,3221,563,995914,327

    19842,409,6141,650,866758,748

    19852,375,1471,625,266749,881

    19862,485,9151,497,975987,940

    19872,499,9741,531,585968,389

    19882,348,4941,569,112779,382

    19892,160,5591,583,743576,816

    19901,988,8581,655,993332,865

    19911,794,6261,690,657103,969

    19921,587,6441,807,441-219,797

    19931,378,9832,129,339-750,356

    19941,408,1592,301,366-893,207

    19951,363,8062,203,811-840,005

    19961,304,6382,082,249-777,611

    19971,259,9432,015,779-755,836

    19981,283,2921,988,744-705,452

    19991,214,6892,144,316-929,627

    20001,266,8002,225,332-958,532

    20011,311,6042,254,856-943,252

    20021,396,8002,331,400-934,600

    20031,477,3012,365,826-888,525

    20041,508,0002,298,100-790,100

    Source:

    Source for 2002 figures: Goskomstat, as reported by ITAR-TASS, Feb 21, 2003

    Births, Deaths, Nat Increase

    27823538860901896263

    19905209587891031731

    1957763974299983464

    18510411017034834007

    18165091040096776413

    18475921106640740952

    19037131131183772530

    19746371143359831278

    20146381181802832836

    19946211214204780417

    20798121222495857317

    21061471309710796437

    21467111352950793761

    21567241387986768738

    21790301417377761653

    21785421490057688485

    22027791525755677024

    22366081524286712322

    23280441504200823844

    24783221563995914327

    24096141650866758748

    23751471625266749881

    24859151497975987940

    24999741531585968389

    23484941569112779382

    21605591583743576816

    19888581655993332865

    17946261690657103969

    15876441807441-219797

    13789832129339-750356

    14081592301366-893207

    13638062203811-840005

    13046382082249-777611

    12599432015779-755836

    12832921988744-705452

    12146892144316-929627

    12668002225332-958532

    13116042254856-943252

    13968002331400-934600

    14773012365826-888525

    15080002298100-790100

    Births

    Deaths

    Natural Increase

    Year

    Population

    Births, Deaths, and Natural Increase in Population: 1960, 1965-2004

    Mortality Rise

    RUSSIA

    Age-Standardized Mortality

    Mortality Rates: Deaths per 1,000 Population

    1970-197120011970-71 vs. 20011970-71 vs. 200120031970-71 vs. 20031970-71 vs. 2003

    Age GroupMortality RateAge GroupMortality RateAge GroupAbsolute ChangeAge GroupPercent ChangeAgeMortality RateAgeAbsolute ChangeAgePercent Change

    MalesFemalesMalesFemalesMalesFemalesMalesFemalesGroupMalesFemalesGroupMalesFemalesGroupMalesFemales

    016.812.4

    1-41.10.80-43.93

    0-46.54.9

    5-90.90.55-90.60.45-90.50.3

    10-140.70.410-140.60.310-140.60.3

    15-191.60.615-192.00.815-190.40.215-1925%33%15-191.70.715-190.10.115-196%17%

    20-242.70.820-244.51.120-241.80.320-2467%38%20-243.9120-241.20.220-2444%25%

    25-294.01.025-295.81.425-291.80.425-2945%40%25-295.91.525-291.90.525-2948%50%

    30-345.01.330-347.01.930-342.00.630-3440%46%30-347.52.130-342.50.830-3450%62%

    35-396.61.935-399.42.535-392.80.635-3942%32%35-3910.22.835-393.60.935-3955%47%

    40-448.22.640-4413.13.540-444.90.940-4460%35%40-4414.4440-446.21.440-4476%54%

    45-4910.93.945-4918.45.345-497.51.445-4969%36%45-4920.15.745-499.21.845-4984%46%

    50-5415.15.950-5425.78.050-5410.62.150-5470%36%50-5427.98.650-5412.82.750-5485%46%

    55-5921.08.155-5934.211.755-5913.23.655-5963%44%55-593512.155-5914.04.055-5967%49%

    60-6431.213.060-6447.016.560-6415.83.560-6451%27%60-6449.817.360-6418.64.360-6460%33%

    65-6946.521.365-6960.725.665-6914.24.365-6931%20%65-6960.62565-6914.13.765-6930%17%

    70+102.671.570-7482.941.270+107.580.9

    75-59103.466.6

    80-84140.7110.7

    85+190.8204.6

    Total9.48.1Total17.913.7Total8.55.6Total90%69%Total18.914.1Total9.56Total101.06%74.07%

    Mortality Rise

    0.06250.1666666667

    0.44444444440.25

    0.4750.5

    0.50.6153846154

    0.54545454550.4736842105

    0.7560975610.5384615385

    0.84403669720.4615384615

    0.84768211920.4576271186

    0.66666666670.4938271605

    0.59615384620.3307692308

    0.30322580650.1737089202

    Males

    Females

    Years

    Increase in Age-Standartized Mortality Rate (percent)

    Rise in Mortality, Russia 1970/71-2003

    Mortality All

    RUSSIA

    Age-Standardized Death Rates, 1965-2003

    Age-Standardized Death Rates (deaths per 100,000 population)

    MALESFEMALES

    YearAll CausesAll Causes

    19651,473.2292.3648.5180.0889.4160.8504.441.1

    19661,484.6289.2653.3191.2878.7156.8496.544.6

    19671,529.3289.0677.0200.2898.7154.2516.045.2

    19681,557.7284.4700.8215.7885.0151.1511.747.3

    19691,666.3286.4768.5231.0914.2147.4537.950.2

    19701,704.5287.2809.0239.0913.5146.2544.951.2

    19711,690.8288.7815.4240.7894.3146.3544.151.9

    19721,699.9285.4832.8238.2907.7143.8557.252.7

    19731,705.1286.1837.8234.7916.5142.7563.853.1

    19741,678.9282.6821.4249.5883.3142.3539.756.4

    19751,761.5281.6874.2259.3928.3141.3573.558.6

    19761,773.0284.2873.6267.9939.0139.3582.761.7

    19771,797.7285.7889.4281.7927.5137.2578.164.0

    19781,797.4282.1903.5280.1922.3136.7577.265.3

    19791,856.4284.1940.9289.1952.6136.5604.766.6

    19801,872.9284.5946.2295.3959.1135.8610.468.0

    19811,866.1292.6940.0296.7956.8137.4610.366.7

    19821,814.5297.5920.2282.3928.3139.0593.164.7

    19831,812.8295.2930.4275.7931.1138.7598.064.0

    19841,879.6298.5972.4284.2974.0137.1634.966.8

    19851,807.9299.5950.7239.6966.3136.9634.060.8

    19861,624.1306.7877.4175.6895.3139.4588.648.1

    19871,630.1310.3884.2171.9898.5140.5593.446.7

    19881,644.5313.9877.2190.7902.8140.9592.849.6

    19891,652.8316.5856.1219.8875.7141.7562.753.4

    19901,654.5311.8836.8231.3876.6141.7548.155.7

    19911,705.6318.8855.5242.4891.5142.8548.958.3

    19921,816.0319.0881.9293.7921.1144.2556.169.2

    19932,181.0323.21,053.5409.21,043.8143.3631.891.6

    19942,382.0319.41,156.0457.31,109.1144.7671.9100.7

    19952,199.0309.11,051.8394.71,060.9142.3633.293.6

    19962,052.8299.9991.3368.11,009.5139.7606.584.1

    19971,918.8296.2951.0314.5985.0139.4597.476.4

    19981,865.4293.9933.9308.2962.4139.0586.074.9

    19992,013.0293.41,009.7341.71,014.4140.0621.982.0

    20002,098.8292.41,057.1360.51,025.8139.6629.783.8

    20012,113.8285.81,069.5374.31,029.5137.6633.888.0

    2002

    2003

    Sources:US Census Bureau, Interantional Data Base, accessed on April 12, 2005

    The Russian Federation Ejegodnik: 2004, Goskomstat, Moscow, 2004, table 5.29

    Mortality All

    Source: The Russian Federation Ejegodnik: 2004, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 2004; US Census Bureau, Interantional Data Base website at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbprint.html, accessed on April 12, 2005

    Males

    Females

    Year

    Mortality Rate(deaths per 100,000 population)

    Age-Standardized Mortality, 1965-2001: Deaths from All Causes

    Male Mort by Region

    The Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2002, Goskomstat of Russia, pp. 241-249

    RegionDemYrbkMale Standardized Mortality (all causes)

    Republic of Ingushetia36775.9

    Republic of Dagestan351,224.1

    Rep. of North Ossetiya Alania401,585.0

    Rep. of Karachaevo-Cherkessia391,601.9

    Republic of Kabardino Balkaria371,780.5

    Moscow201,804.8

    Tyumenskaya oblast661,810.8

    Republic of Kalmykia381,840.7

    Stavropolsky Krai431,848.8

    Republic of Tatarstan511,867.2

    Murmanskaya oblast291,877.8

    Krasnodarsky Krai421,906.9

    Republic of Bashkortostan481,916.6

    St. Petersburg321,939.1

    Belgorodskaya oblast31,960.3

    Novosibirskaya oblast821,964.3

    Altaisky Krai751,969.9

    Republic of Mordovia501,990.6

    Rostovskaya oblast461,990.8

    Omskaya oblast831,992.6

    Tomskaya oblast841,993.4

    Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)882,005.1

    Magadanskaya oblast942,005.5

    Volgogradskaya oblast452,010.2

    Republic of Chuvashia532,015.0

    Penzenskaya oblast572,017.9

    Kirovskaya oblast542,072.1

    Voronezhskaya oblast62,079.6

    Orenburgskaya oblast562,090.4

    Republic of Komi232,094.5

    Ulyanovskaya oblast622,095.4

    Kurganskaya oblast642,099.7

    Tambovskaya oblast162,101.9

    Lipetskaya oblast112,114.0

    Saratovskaya oblast612,114.6

    Chelyabinskaya oblast692,135.2

    Astrakhanskaya oblast442,159.4

    Kurskaya oblast102,161.4

    Republic of Udmurtia522,163.8

    Primorsky Krai892,169.3

    Orlovskaya oblast132,180.2

    Sverdlovskaya oblast652,190.8

    Republic of Buryatia722,194.5

    Republic of Khakassia742,215.6

    Krasnoyarsky Krai762,224.0

    Kamchatskaya oblast922,224.8

    Republic of Mari El492,229.6

    Arkhangelskaya oblast242,251.0

    Evreiskaya Aut. Obl.962,253.8

    Permskaya oblast582,269.0

    Moscow oblast122,269.3

    Bryanskaya oblast42,269.9

    Samarskaya oblast602,271.6

    Nizhegorodskaya obl.552,272.6

    Republic of Altai712,273.4

    Kemerovskaya oblast812,286.8

    Kaliningradskaya oblast272,293.1

    Vologodskaya oblast262,297.3

    Kaluzhskaya oblast82,304.0

    Amurskaya oblast912,316.8

    Ryazanskaya oblast142,352.6

    Khabarovsky Krai902,360.7

    Sakhalinskaya oblast952,389.4

    Chitinskaya oblast852,408.6

    Republic of Karelia222,446.8

    Irkutskaya oblast792,454.1

    Kostromskaya oblast92,457.6

    Yaroslavskaya oblast192,474.1

    Tulskaya oblast182,486.0

    Vladimirskaya oblast52,486.8

    Smolenskaya oblast152,506.5

    Ivanovskaya oblast72,511.5

    Republic of Tyva732,559.6

    Leningradskaya oblast282,668.4

    Tverskaya oblast172,684.4

    Novgorodskaya oblast302,705.7

    Pskovskaya oblast312,766.4

    Male Mort by Region

    775.9

    1224.1

    1585

    1601.9

    1780.5

    1804.8

    1810.8

    1840.7

    1848.8

    1867.2

    1877.8

    1906.9

    1916.6

    1939.1

    1960.3

    1964.3

    1969.9

    1990.6

    1990.8

    1992.6

    1993.4

    2005.1

    2005.5

    2010.2

    2015

    2017.9

    2072.1

    2079.6

    2090.4

    2094.5

    2095.4

    2099.7

    2101.9

    2114

    2114.6

    2135.2

    2159.4

    2161.4

    2163.8

    2169.3

    2180.2

    2190.8

    2194.5

    2215.6

    2224

    2224.8

    2229.6

    2251

    2253.8

    2269

    2269.3

    2269.9

    2271.6

    2272.6

    2273.4

    2286.8

    2293.1

    2297.3

    2304

    2316.8

    2352.6

    2360.7

    2389.4

    2408.6

    2446.8

    2454.1

    2457.6

    2474.1

    2486

    2486.8

    2506.5

    2511.5

    2559.6

    2668.4

    2684.4

    2705.7

    2766.4

    Male Standardized Mortality (all causes)

    Region

    Number of deaths per 100,000 population

    Male Standardized Mortality (all causes), Russia 2001

    Cardio Mortality

    RUSSIA

    Age-Standardized Death Rates, 1965-2001

    Age-Standardized Death Rates (deaths per 100,000 population)

    MALESFEMALES

    YearAll CausesAll Causes

    19651,473.2292.3648.5180.0889.4160.8504.441.1

    19661,484.6289.2653.3191.2878.7156.8496.544.6

    19671,529.3289.0677.0200.2898.7154.2516.045.2

    19681,557.7284.4700.8215.7885.0151.1511.747.3

    19691,666.3286.4768.5231.0914.2147.4537.950.2

    19701,704.5287.2809.0239.0913.5146.2544.951.2

    19711,690.8288.7815.4240.7894.3146.3544.151.9

    19721,699.9285.4832.8238.2907.7143.8557.252.7

    19731,705.1286.1837.8234.7916.5142.7563.853.1

    19741,678.9282.6821.4249.5883.3142.3539.756.4

    19751,761.5281.6874.2259.3928.3141.3573.558.6

    19761,773.0284.2873.6267.9939.0139.3582.761.7

    19771,797.7285.7889.4281.7927.5137.2578.164.0

    19781,797.4282.1903.5280.1922.3136.7577.265.3

    19791,856.4284.1940.9289.1952.6136.5604.766.6

    19801,872.9284.5946.2295.3959.1135.8610.468.0

    19811,866.1292.6940.0296.7956.8137.4610.366.7

    19821,814.5297.5920.2282.3928.3139.0593.164.7

    19831,812.8295.2930.4275.7931.1138.7598.064.0

    19841,879.6298.5972.4284.2974.0137.1634.966.8

    19851,807.9299.5950.7239.6966.3136.9634.060.8

    19861,624.1306.7877.4175.6895.3139.4588.648.1

    19871,630.1310.3884.2171.9898.5140.5593.446.7

    19881,644.5313.9877.2190.7902.8140.9592.849.6

    19891,652.8316.5856.1219.8875.7141.7562.753.4

    19901,654.5311.8836.8231.3876.6141.7548.155.7

    19911,705.6318.8855.5242.4891.5142.8548.958.3

    19921,816.0319.0881.9293.7921.1144.2556.169.2

    19932,181.0323.21,053.5409.21,043.8143.3631.891.6

    19942,382.0319.41,156.0457.31,109.1144.7671.9100.7

    19952,199.0309.11,051.8394.71,060.9142.3633.293.6

    19962,052.8299.9991.3368.11,009.5139.7606.584.1

    19971,918.8296.2951.0314.5985.0139.4597.476.4

    19981,865.4293.9933.9308.2962.4139.0586.074.9

    19992,013.0293.41,009.7341.71,014.4140.0621.982.0

    20002,098.8292.41,057.1360.51,025.8139.6629.783.8

    20012,113.8285.81,069.5374.31,029.5137.6633.888.0

    Cardio Mortality

    648.5504.4

    653.3496.5

    677516

    700.8511.7

    768.5537.9

    809544.9

    815.4544.1

    832.8557.2

    837.8563.8

    821.4539.7

    874.2573.5

    873.6582.7

    889.4578.1

    903.5577.2

    940.9604.7

    946.2610.4

    940610.3

    920.2593.1

    930.4598

    972.4634.9

    950.7634

    877.4588.6

    884.2593.4

    877.2592.8

    856.1562.7

    836.8548.1

    855.5548.9

    881.9556.1

    1053.5631.8

    1156671.9

    1051.8633.2

    991.3606.5

    951597.4

    933.9586

    1009.7621.9

    1057.1629.7

    1069.5633.8

    Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 Statistical Handbook, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 2002, Table 6.4.

    Males

    Females

    Year

    Mortality Rate: Chapter IX Causes(deaths per 100,000 population)

    Figure 12. RUSSIA: Age-Standardized MortalityDeaths from Cardiovascular Diseases, 1965-2001

    Circulatory Mortality

    Deaths from diseases of the circulatory system, 25-64 years,

    Russia and selected European countries

    Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, The World Heath Organization at www. Euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf

    Accidents, Injuries Mortality

    RUSSIA

    Age-Standardized Death Rates, 1965-2001

    Age-Standardized Death Rates (deaths per 100,000 population)

    MALESFEMALES

    YearAll CausesAll Causes

    19651,473.2292.3648.5180.0889.4160.8504.441.1

    19661,484.6289.2653.3191.2878.7156.8496.544.6

    19671,529.3289.0677.0200.2898.7154.2516.045.2

    19681,557.7284.4700.8215.7885.0151.1511.747.3

    19691,666.3286.4768.5231.0914.2147.4537.950.2

    19701,704.5287.2809.0239.0913.5146.2544.951.2

    19711,690.8288.7815.4240.7894.3146.3544.151.9

    19721,699.9285.4832.8238.2907.7143.8557.252.7

    19731,705.1286.1837.8234.7916.5142.7563.853.1

    19741,678.9282.6821.4249.5883.3142.3539.756.4

    19751,761.5281.6874.2259.3928.3141.3573.558.6

    19761,773.0284.2873.6267.9939.0139.3582.761.7

    19771,797.7285.7889.4281.7927.5137.2578.164.0

    19781,797.4282.1903.5280.1922.3136.7577.265.3

    19791,856.4284.1940.9289.1952.6136.5604.766.6

    19801,872.9284.5946.2295.3959.1135.8610.468.0

    19811,866.1292.6940.0296.7956.8137.4610.366.7

    19821,814.5297.5920.2282.3928.3139.0593.164.7

    19831,812.8295.2930.4275.7931.1138.7598.064.0

    19841,879.6298.5972.4284.2974.0137.1634.966.8

    19851,807.9299.5950.7239.6966.3136.9634.060.8

    19861,624.1306.7877.4175.6895.3139.4588.648.1

    19871,630.1310.3884.2171.9898.5140.5593.446.7

    19881,644.5313.9877.2190.7902.8140.9592.849.6

    19891,652.8316.5856.1219.8875.7141.7562.753.4

    19901,654.5311.8836.8231.3876.6141.7548.155.7

    19911,705.6318.8855.5242.4891.5142.8548.958.3

    19921,816.0319.0881.9293.7921.1144.2556.169.2

    19932,181.0323.21,053.5409.21,043.8143.3631.891.6

    19942,382.0319.41,156.0457.31,109.1144.7671.9100.7

    19952,199.0309.11,051.8394.71,060.9142.3633.293.6

    19962,052.8299.9991.3368.11,009.5139.7606.584.1

    19971,918.8296.2951.0314.5985.0139.4597.476.4

    19981,865.4293.9933.9308.2962.4139.0586.074.9

    19992,013.0293.41,009.7341.71,014.4140.0621.982.0

    20002,098.8292.41,057.1360.51,025.8139.6629.783.8

    20012,113.8285.81,069.5374.31,029.5137.6633.888.0

    Accidents, Injuries Mortality

    18041.1

    191.244.6

    200.245.2

    215.747.3

    23150.2

    23951.2

    240.751.9

    238.252.7

    234.753.1

    249.556.4

    259.358.6

    267.961.7

    281.764

    280.165.3

    289.166.6

    295.368

    296.766.7

    282.364.7

    275.764

    284.266.8

    239.660.8

    175.648.1

    171.946.7

    190.749.6

    219.853.4

    231.355.7

    242.458.3

    293.769.2

    409.291.6

    457.3100.7

    394.793.6

    368.184.1

    314.576.4

    308.274.9

    341.782

    360.583.8

    374.388

    Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 Statistical Handbook, State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 2002, Table 6.4.

    Males

    Females

    Year

    Mortality Rate: Chapter XIX Causes(deaths per 100,000 population)

    Figure 13. RUSSIA: Age-Standardized MortalityDeaths from Accidents, Injuries, 1965-2001

    External Causes Mortality

    Death from External causes of injury and poisoning, 0-64 years

    Russia and selected European countries

    Rus Male Mort by Birth Cohort

    Rate*1000(1930)Rate (1940)Rate*1000(1940)Rate (1950)Rate*1000(1950)Rate (1960)Rate*1000 (1960)Rate (1970)Rate*1000 (1970)

    0.0021072.110.0025572.560.0021332.13

    0.0026162.620.0030493.050.0025802.58

    0.0030033.000.0031543.150.0031473.15

    0.0029983.000.0031483.150.0038713.87

    0.0032963.300.0033943.390.0044334.43

    0.0035863.590.0031083.110.0048964.90

    0.0037223.720.0024672.470.0046454.65

    0.0040934.090.0026172.620.0042814.28

    0.0043514.350.0030083.010.0046314.63

    0.0047814.780.0034373.440.0053155.32

    0.0046164.620.0053365.340.0038943.89

    0.0049784.980.0052775.280.0042754.28

    0.0050575.060.0053985.400.0055035.50

    0.0050805.080.0053965.400.0075147.51

    0.0056155.620.0057855.790.0087338.73

    0.0062726.270.0054415.440.0095929.59

    0.0064996.500.0041754.180.0081748.17

    0.0073067.310.0043424.340.0075307.53

    0.0076077.610.0048434.840.0078437.84

    0.0082508.250.0058695.870.0094909.49

    0.000.0094969.500.0068126.81

    0.000.0095199.520.0074057.41

    0.000.0093829.380.0098909.89

    0.000.01006210.060.01408114.08

    0.000.01103511.040.01746017.46

    0.000.01058710.590.01852818.53

    0.000.0091579.160.01626016.26

    0.000.0097899.790.01474914.75

    0.000.01070010.700.01529315.29

    0.000.01232312.320.01828318.28

    0.000.01294512.95

    0.000.01545415.45

    0.000.01883518.84

    0.000.02610826.11

    0.000.03127931.28

    0.000.03213932.14

    0.000.02971629.72

    0.000.02890428.90

    0.000.02963129.63

    0.000.03427434.27

    0.00

    0.00

    0.00

    0.00

    0.00Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on April 11, 2005

    Rus Male Mort by Birth Cohort

    202.1072.5572.133

    212.6163.0492.58

    223.0033.1543.147

    232.9983.1483.871

    243.2963.3944.433

    253.5863.1084.896

    263.7222.4674.645

    274.0932.6174.281

    284.3513.0084.631

    294.7813.4375.315

    304.6165.3363.894

    314.9785.2774.275

    325.0575.3985.503

    335.085.3967.514

    345.6155.7858.733

    356.2725.4419.592

    366.4994.1758.174

    377.3064.3427.53

    387.6074.8437.843

    398.255.8699.49

    407.7079.4966.812

    417.8729.5197.405

    428.3959.3829.89

    438.64510.06214.081

    449.56811.03517.46

    4510.63310.58718.528

    4611.4529.15716.26

    4712.6329.78914.749

    4813.62710.715.293

    4914.94912.32318.283

    13.07217.10612.945

    13.36516.96515.454

    15.07217.91818.835

    16.03819.38626.108

    17.8921.66931.279

    19.65221.3932.139

    21.2720.05529.716

    23.48321.99328.904

    25.58323.84629.631

    28.36526.38834.274

    31.32630.024

    32.26532.24

    34.0936.924

    37.68147.466

    41.46955.261

    42.22155.465

    1920

    1930

    1940

    1950

    1960

    1970

    Ages

    Mortality rate (deaths per 1000 people)

    Male Mortality in Russia by birth cohorts 1920-1970

    Russia and Indian Subcontinent

    Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census International Data Base, accessed on April 12, 2005

    Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

    YearRussiaBangledeshIndiaPakistanU.S. Bureau of the CensusInternational Data Base

    198963.7855.9855.86

    199063.3756.956.24Table 010. Infant Mort Rates & Life Exp at Birthby Sex

    199162.9556.6558.8256.61----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    199261.5357.2659.1657.13LifeLifeLife

    199358.4757.8559.557.6Country or area/IMRIMRIMRexpectancyexpectancyexpectancy

    199457.2858.4359.8358.02Yearboth sexesmalefemaleboth sexesmalefemale

    199557.885960.1558.42----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    199659.5559.2960.5158.8Bangladesh

    199760.7259.5760.8659.17

    199861.1159.8561.2159.54199191.4394.2888.4156.2856.6555.89

    199959.8460.1361.5559.91199288.3690.6885.956.8657.2656.43

    200059.0560.461.8960.27199385.3987.2283.4557.4257.8556.97

    200158.9560.7662.2460.61199482.5283.8981.0857.9758.4357.49

    200259.4861.1162.5860.96199579.7580.6878.7658.525958

    200359.9261.4662.9261.3199678.0679.067758.8559.2958.39

    200460.2761.863.2561.65199776.4177.4875.2859.1959.5758.78

    200560.5562.1363.5762199874.875.9373.659.5259.8559.16

    200660.4562.4763.962.33199973.2174.471.9559.8460.1359.54

    200760.3562.8164.2362.66200071.6672.9170.3460.1660.459.91

    200860.2963.1464.5563200169.7570.9668.4760.5660.7660.35

    200960.363.4764.8663.33200267.8969.0666.6560.9561.1160.78

    201060.4163.7965.1763.67200366.0867.2164.8861.3361.4661.2

    201160.6564.1265.4963.99200464.3265.4163.1661.7161.861.61

    201260.9864.4565.864.3200562.663.6561.4862.0862.1362.02

    201361.3664.7766.164.62200660.8361.8759.7462.4662.4762.45

    201461.7765.0866.464.95200759.1260.1358.0562.8462.8162.86

    201562.1765.3966.765.27200857.4558.4456.4163.2163.1463.28

    201662.5765.76765.57200955.8356.7954.8163.5763.4763.68

    201762.9866.0167.2965.87201054.2555.1953.2563.9363.7964.08

    201863.466.3167.5766.17201152.6353.5551.6564.364.1264.49

    201963.8266.6167.8566.47201251.0651.9650.164.6764.4564.9

    202064.2266.968.1366.78201349.5450.4248.665.0364.7765.3

    202164.6267.268.4167.06201448.0648.9247.1465.3865.0865.69

    202264.9967.4968.6867.35201546.6247.4745.7265.7365.3966.08

    202365.3667.7768.9567.63201645.1846.0144.2966.0865.766.48

    202465.768.0569.2267.92201743.7844.642.966.4266.0166.86

    202566.0468.3369.4868.21201842.4243.2341.5666.7766.3167.25

    201941.141.940.2567.166.6167.62

    202039.8340.6138.9967.4366.967.99

    202138.5439.3337.7167.7767.268.37

    202237.338.0836.4868.167.4968.74

    202336.136.8735.2868.4267.7769.11

    202434.9335.734.1368.7468.0569.47

    202533.8134.563369.0568.3369.82

    India

    198990.890.291.556.2355.9856.49

    199079.979.580.457.256.957.53

    199181.8582.8880.7759.0858.8259.35

    199279.8880.978.859.4759.1659.79

    199377.9578.9776.8759.8559.560.21

    199476.0677.0974.9860.2259.8360.64

    199574.2275.2573.1460.5960.1561.05

    199672.2673.2371.2560.9860.5161.48

    199770.3571.2669.461.3760.8661.9

    199868.4969.3467.661.7561.2162.32

    199966.6767.4765.8462.1361.5562.73

    200064.965.6564.1262.561.8963.13

    200163.0863.7962.3462.8862.2463.55

    200261.3161.9860.6163.2562.5863.96

    200359.5960.2358.9363.6262.9264.37

    200457.9258.5257.2963.9963.2564.77

    200556.2956.8655.6964.3563.5765.16

    200654.6355.1854.0564.7163.965.57

    200753.0253.5652.4565.0764.2365.97

    200851.4551.9850.965.4364.5566.36

    200949.9350.4449.465.7864.8666.74

    201048.4648.9547.9366.1265.1767.12

    201146.9647.4546.4566.4765.4967.51

    201245.5145.9945.0166.8265.867.89

    201344.144.5743.6167.1666.168.26

    201442.7443.242.2667.4966.468.63

    201541.4141.8740.9467.8266.768.99

    201640.140.5639.6268.156769.36

    201738.8239.2938.3468.4767.2969.72

    201837.5938.0537.168.7967.5770.07

    201936.3936.8635.969.1167.8570.42

    202035.2335.734.7469.4168.1370.76

    202134.0834.5633.5769.7268.4171.11

    202232.9633.4532.4570.0368.6871.45

    202331.8832.3731.3670.3368.9571.78

    202430.8331.3330.3170.6369.2272.11

    202529.8230.3229.370.9269.4872.43

    Pakistan

    1989108.01108.93107.0456.3455.9456.75

    1990105.68106.54104.7756.7556.3257.2

    1991103.29104.1102.4457.1856.7257.66

    1992100.42101.1499.6657.7157.258.24

    199398.0598.7297.3558.2157.6658.79

    199495.596.194.8758.6558.0759.27

    199593.4293.9892.8259.0558.4359.71

    199691.1491.6890.5759.4558.860.14

    19978989.5288.4559.8559.1660.57

    199886.8887.3886.3560.2459.5261

    199984.8185.384.360.6359.8761.42

    200083.0983.5782.5860.9560.1761.77

    200181.0281.4980.5261.360.4962.14

    200278.7779.2278.361.7360.8962.62

    200376.5977.0276.1462.1961.363.13

    200474.4374.847462.6161.6963.58

    200572.4472.8472.036362.0464.01

    200670.4570.8470.0463.3962.464.44

    200768.5368.9268.1263.7762.7464.85

    200866.6767.0666.2664.1363.0765.25

    200964.8665.2464.4664.4963.465.64

    201063.163.4862.764.8563.7266.02

    201161.2961.6760.8865.2164.0666.42

    201259.5259.9259.1165.5764.3866.81

    201357.8158.2157.465.9264.767.2

    201456.1556.5555.7366.2765.0267.58

    201554.5354.9354.166.665.3367.94

    201652.8853.3152.4466.9565.6468.33

    201751.2951.7350.8267.2965.9568.7

    201849.7450.1949.2667.6266.2569.07

    201948.2348.747.7467.9566.5569.42

    202046.7747.2646.2668.2766.8469.78

    202145.2945.844.7768.667.1470.14

    202243.8644.3843.3168.9267.4370.49

    202342.4743.0141.9169.2467.7170.84

    202441.1341.6840.5569.5567.9971.18

    202539.8240.3939.2369.8568.2771.51

    Russia

    198922.6126.021968.863.7874.13

    199021.3824.5218.0668.5263.3773.98

    199122.1625.3818.7568.2462.9573.85

    199221.2424.417.8967.2961.5373.39

    199324.2727.4420.964.8458.4771.61

    199421.7424.9718.3163.9557.2871.02

    199523.4826.6820.164.4657.8871.43

    199621.2124.231865.7759.5572.36

    199720.9823.917.8966.5760.7272.77

    199820.3323.0917.4166.9361.1173.11

    199920.3522.9317.6165.9559.8472.42

    200019.0621.6116.3765.4959.0572.31

    200118.1920.8615.3665.5158.9572.45

    200217.419.9814.676659.4872.92

    200316.6819.1614.0466.4459.9273.34

    200416.0118.4113.4766.860.2773.72

    200515.3917.712.9467.160.5574.04

    200615.1317.4312.767.0860.4574.1

    200714.8817.1712.4667.0360.3574.11

    200814.6216.8912.2266.9860.2974.06

    200914.3416.611.9666.9460.373.98

    201014.0616.311.6966.9560.4173.89

    201113.791611.4467.0560.6573.83

    201213.4915.6811.1767.260.9873.8

    201313.1615.3310.8767.461.3673.8

    201412.8414.9810.5767.6361.7773.83

    201512.5114.6310.2767.8462.1773.85

    201612.214.299.9868.0662.5773.88

    201711.8813.949.6968.3162.9873.95

    201811.5613.69.4168.5763.474.06

    201911.2513.269.1268.8663.8274.2

    202010.9412.928.8569.1464.2274.36

    202110.6512.68.5969.4264.6274.52

    202210.3612.288.3469.764.9974.69

    202310.0811.968.0969.9865.3674.88

    20249.8111.657.8570.2565.775.07

    20259.5411.367.6170.5266.0475.26

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Source: U.S. Bureau of the CensusInternational

    Data Base.

    Accessed on 4/12/05

    Russia and Indian Subcontinent

    Russia

    Bangledesh

    India

    Pakistan

    Year

    Life Expectancy at Birth (years)

    Male Life Expectancy at Birth: Russia vs. Indian Subcontinent, 1989-2025

    Pop 65+

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

    http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbprint.html, accessed on April 12, 2005

    Population 65+, United States, Russia, Western Europe

    YearUnited States65+Russia65+Western Europe65+

    Total popTotal popTotal pop

    1975220,16523,117134,23311,947169,16523,514

    1980230,91725,863138,66014,143170,46224,887

    1985243,05628,438143,32913,903171,85523,716

    1990255,53931,176148,37014,837176,08725,357

    1995269,60333,431148,18917,783180,97727,689

    2000284,15434,951146,56018,027183,58929,374

    2005298,21336,680143,20219,762185,87932,343

    2010312,25339,968140,02817,644187,44034,489

    2015325,72345,927136,69618,181188,42737,120

    2020338,42753,471133,10120,231189,13840,286

    2025350,10361,968129,23022,744189,54643,785

    Pop 65+

    23117.32511946.73723513.935

    25862.70414143.3224887.452

    28437.55213902.91323715.99

    31175.7581483725356.528

    33430.77217782.6827689.481

    34950.94218026.8829374.24

    36680.19919761.87632342.946

    39968.38417643.52834488.96

    45926.94318180.56837120.119

    53471.46620231.35240286.394

    61968.23122744.4843785.126

    United States

    Russia

    Western Europe

    Year

    Population

    Population 65+ in United States, Russia and Western Europe

    Syphilis

    New cases of syphilis, Russia and selected European countries

    Source: Atlas of Health in Europe, World Health Organization, 2003

    http://www.euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf

    http://www.euro.who.int/document/E79876.pdf

    Nat Increase by Region

    Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2004, Goskomstat of Russia, pp. 101-120

    RegionDemYrbkNatural Increase

    Republic of Ingushetia3611.1

    Republic of Dagestan359.9

    Yamalo-Nenetsky AD688

    Khanty-Mansiysky Autonomous District676.8

    Aginsky Buryatsky AD865.4

    Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)884.8

    Taimyrsky (Dolgano-nenetsky) AD776

    Republic of Tyva735.4

    Evenkiysky AD783.4

    Tyumenskaya oblast663

    Nenetsky AD251.8

    Republic of Altai711.1

    Republic of Kalmykia381.5

    Chukotsky AD972.3

    Republic of Kabardino Balkaria370.1

    Ust-Ordynsky Buryatsky AD80-0.3

    Rep. of Karachaevo-Cherkessia39-0.8

    Rep. of North Ossetiya Alania40-1.3

    Magadanskaya oblast94-1.4

    Republic of Buryatia72-1.9

    Kamchatskaya oblast92-1.4

    Chitinskaya oblast85-3.3

    Murmanskaya oblast29-4

    Republic of Bashkortostan48-3.1

    Koryaksky AD93-7.8

    Republic of Komi23-4.3

    Tomskaya oblast84-3.9

    Republic of Tatarstan51-3.6

    Evreiskaya Aut. Obl.96-4.1

    Republic of Udmurtia52-4.2

    Amurskaya oblast91-4.2

    Astrakhanskaya oblast44-3.5

    Irkutskaya oblast79-4.6

    Krasnoyarsky Krai76-4.7

    Stavropolsky Krai43-4.7

    Orenburgskaya oblast56-4.4

    Primorsky Krai89-5.1

    Omskaya oblast83-4.1

    Sakhalinskaya oblast95-5.5

    Altaisky Krai75-5.1

    Republic of Chuvashia53-5.2

    Republic of Khakassia74-6

    Novosibirskaya oblast82-4.9

    Khabarovsky Krai90-5.5

    Krasnodarsky Krai42-5.4

    Permskaya oblast58-7

    Republic of Mari El49-6

    Arkhangelskaya oblast24-7.1

    Chelyabinskaya oblast69-6.1

    Kurganskaya oblast64-7.7

    Moscow20-4.7

    Sverdlovskaya oblast65-6.9

    Komi-Permyatsky AD59-10.2

    Volgogradskaya oblast45-6.8

    Kemerovskaya oblast81-7.8

    Rostovskaya oblast46-7.1

    Ulyanovskaya oblast62-8.4

    Republic of Karelia22-9.7

    Republic of Mordovia50-8.8

    Belgorodskaya oblast3-6.9

    Vologodskaya oblast26-9.4

    Saratovskaya oblast61-7.9

    Kaliningradskaya oblast27-8.7

    Samarskaya oblast60-6.6

    Kirovskaya oblast54-10.4

    Lipetskaya oblast11-9.6

    Penzenskaya oblast57-9.5

    St. Petersburg32-8

    Bryanskaya oblast4-10

    Orlovskaya oblast13-9.9

    Kurskaya oblast10-10.9

    Kaluzhskaya oblast8-10.2

    Moscow oblast12-9.1

    Voronezhskaya oblast6-10.7

    Tambovskaya oblast16-11.5

    Nizhegorodskaya obl.55-11

    Kostromskaya oblast9-12.2

    Vladimirskaya oblast5-11.5

    Yaroslavskaya oblast19-11.7

    Ryazanskaya oblast14-12.9

    Ivanovskaya oblast7-13.3

    Smolenskaya oblast15-13.3

    Leningradskaya oblast28-13.1

    Novgorodskaya oblast30-14.3

    Tverskaya oblast17-14.9

    Tulskaya oblast18-14.7

    Pskovskaya oblast31-15.9

    Republic of Adygea-5.1

    Nat Increase by Region

    11.1

    9.9

    8

    6.8

    5.4

    4.8

    6

    5.4

    3.4

    3

    1.8

    1.1

    1.5

    2.3

    0.1

    -0.3

    -0.8

    -1.3

    -1.4

    -1.9

    -1.4

    -3.3

    -4

    -3.1

    -7.8

    -4.3

    -3.9

    -3.6

    -4.1

    -4.2

    -4.2

    -3.5

    -4.6

    -4.7

    -4.7

    -4.4

    -5.1

    -4.1

    -5.5

    -5.1

    -5.2

    -6

    -4.9

    -5.5

    -5.4

    -7

    -6

    -7.1

    -6.1

    -7.7

    -4.7

    -6.9

    -10.2

    -6.8

    -7.8

    -7.1

    -8.4

    -9.7

    -8.8

    -6.9

    -9.4

    -7.9

    -8.7

    -6.6

    -10.4

    -9.6

    -9.5

    -8

    -10

    -9.9

    -10.9

    -10.2

    -9.1

    -10.7

    -11.5

    -11

    -12.2

    -11.5

    -11.7

    -12.9

    -13.3

    -13.3

    -13.1

    -14.3

    -14.9

    -14.7

    -15.9

    -5.1

    Natural Increase by Region

    Region

    Natural Increase

    Natural Increase by Region, Russia, 2001

    Total Fertility by Region

    Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002, Goskomstat of Russia, pp. 95-104

    RegionDemYrbkTFR

    Republic of Dagestan352.125

    Republic of Ingushetia362.087

    Republic of Tyva731.942

    Republic of Altai711.884

    Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)881.76

    Republic of Kalmykia381.567

    Rep. of Karachaevo-Cherkessia391.492

    Republic of Kabardino Balkaria371.486

    Chitinskaya oblast851.485

    Rep. of North Ossetiya Alania401.461

    Republic of Bashkortostan481.448

    Republic of Buryatia721.428

    Tyumenskaya oblast661.424

    Astrakhanskaya oblast441.402

    Krasnodarsky Krai421.371

    Chukotsky AD971.356

    Irkutskaya oblast791.353

    Evreiskaya Aut. Obl.961.343

    Orenburgskaya oblast561.331

    Republic of Udmurtia521.33

    Permskaya oblast581.318

    Republic of Tatarstan511.313

    Amurskaya oblast911.296

    Moscow201.286

    Vologodskaya oblast261.286

    Stavropolsky Krai431.283

    Kurganskaya oblast641.273

    Krasnoyarsky Krai761.27

    Altaisky Krai751.262

    Kemerovskaya oblast811.25

    Republic of Mari El491.243

    Chelyabinskaya oblast691.242

    Republic of Khakassia741.237

    Primorsky Krai891.224

    Arkhangelskaya oblast241.221

    Volgogradskaya oblast451.218

    Kostromskaya oblast91.207

    Tomskaya oblast841.198

    Sverdlovskaya oblast651.197

    Republic of Komi231.19

    Novosibirskaya oblast821.19

    Republic of Karelia221.187

    Rostovskaya oblast461.187

    Kurskaya oblast101.181

    Sakhalinskaya oblast951.176

    Kamchatskaya oblast921.174

    Pskovskaya oblast311.17

    Khabarovsky Krai901.168

    Novgorodskaya oblast301.167

    Republic of Chuvashia531.167

    Lipetskaya oblast111.166

    Kaluzhskaya oblast81.154

    Belgorodskaya oblast31.152

    Kirovskaya oblast541.151

    Yaroslavskaya oblast191.15

    Orlovskaya oblast131.145

    Vladimirskaya oblast51.134

    Moscow oblast121.134

    Saratovskaya oblast611.134

    Bryanskaya oblast41.13

    Kaliningradskaya oblast271.128

    Voronezhskaya oblast61.124

    Tverskaya oblast171.124

    Murmanskaya oblast291.12

    Nizhegorodskaya obl.551.118

    Tambovskaya oblast161.113

    Ulyanovskaya oblast621.109

    Omskaya oblast831.107

    Leningradskaya oblast281.105

    Tulskaya oblast181.094

    Republic of Mordovia501.088

    Samarskaya oblast601.087

    Magadanskaya oblast941.086

    Ryazanskaya oblast141.084

    Ivanovskaya oblast71.072

    Penzenskaya oblast571.059

    Smolenskaya oblast151.042

    St. Petersburg321.028

    Total Fertility by Region

    2.125

    2.087

    1.942

    1.884

    1.76

    1.567

    1.492

    1.486

    1.485

    1.461

    1.448

    1.428

    1.424

    1.402

    1.371

    1.356

    1.353

    1.343

    1.331

    1.33

    1.318

    1.313

    1.296

    1.286

    1.286

    1.283

    1.273

    1.27

    1.262

    1.25

    1.243

    1.242

    1.237

    1.224

    1.221

    1.218

    1.207

    1.198

    1.197

    1.19

    1.19

    1.187

    1.187

    1.181

    1.176

    1.174

    1.17

    1.168

    1.167

    1.167

    1.166

    1.154

    1.152

    1.151

    1.15

    1.145

    1.134

    1.134

    1.134

    1.13

    1.128

    1.124

    1.124

    1.12

    1.118

    1.113

    1.109

    1.107

    1.105

    1.094

    1.088

    1.087

    1.086

    1.084

    1.072

    1.059

    1.042

    1.028

    TFR

    Region

    TFR

    TFR by Region, Russia, 2001

    Japan Male Mort by Birth Cohort

    Rate (1930)Rate*1000 (1930)Rate (1940)Rate*1000 (1940)Rate (1950)Rate*1000 (1950)Rate (1960)Rate*1000 (1960)Rate (1969)Rate*1000 (1969)

    0.0035513.550.0018901.890.0012341.230.0008920.890.0009060.91

    0.0031073.110.0018421.840.0011961.200.0008630.860.0007890.79

    0.0030153.020.0018271.830.0012521.250.0008570.860.0007710.77

    0.0031413.140.0017171.720.0011041.100.0008710.870.0007080.71

    0.0031033.100.0017311.730.0010741.070.0007240.720.0006830.68

    0.0028492.850.0016621.660.0010461.050.0008080.810.0008060.81

    0.0027302.730.0015691.570.0010201.020.0008050.810.0007130.71

    0.0025372.540.0015541.550.0009130.910.0008500.850.0006120.61

    0.0023752.380.0014751.480.0008760.880.0007780.780.0007010.70

    0.0023582.360.0015401.540.0009360.940.0007590.760.0007670.77

    0.0021152.120.0015221.520.0008970.900.0007840.78

    0.0021092.110.0014721.470.0009430.940.0008090.81

    0.0021162.120.0014791.480.0009610.960.0008120.81

    0.0022232.220.0015351.540.0010461.050.0008480.85

    0.0022542.250.0016391.640.0010271.030.0008890.89

    0.0024432.440.0015241.520.0011581.160.0009810.98

    0.0025032.500.0014651.470.0012131.210.0010091.01

    0.0026032.600.0016641.660.0012701.270.0011801.18

    0.0026592.660.0018861.890.0012901.290.0013151.32

    0.0030603.060.0018941.890.0013991.40

    0.0031313.130.0020532.050.0015551.56

    0.0032743.270.0021182.120.0015911.59

    0.0034033.400.0023732.370.0018251.83

    0.0036293.630.0026062.610.0019031.90

    0.0040424.040.0027722.770.0021902.19

    0.0041524.150.0029252.930.0023872.39

    0.0040424.040.0031063.110.0025662.57

    0.0047354.740.0032633.260.0030013.00

    0.0048734.870.0034303.430.0032433.24

    0.0052065.210.0037543.75

    0.0055815.580.0041574.16

    0.0060486.050.0045444.54

    0.0064516.450.0049804.98

    0.0069656.970.0051585.16

    0.0076007.600.0057535.75

    0.0079167.920.0062816.28

    0.0084338.430.0069076.91Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on April 11, 2005

    0.0093149.310.0072157.22

    0.0097849.780.0082578.26

    0.01040110.40

    0.01158311.58

    0.01242112.42

    0.01366613.67

    0.01469514.70

    0.01602016.02

    0.01682616.83

    Japan Male Mort by Birth Cohort

    203.5511.891.2340.8920.906

    213.1071.8421.1960.8630.789

    223.0151.8271.2520.8570.771

    233.1411.7171.1040.8710.708

    243.1031.7311.0740.7240.683

    252.8491.6621.0460.8080.806

    262.731.5691.020.8050.713

    272.5371.5540.9130.850.612

    282.3751.4750.8760.7780.701

    292.3581.540.9360.7590.767

    5.1472.1151.5220.8970.784

    3.9312.1091.4720.9430.809

    3.3492.1161.4790.9610.812

    3.3252.2231.5351.0460.848

    3.3212.2541.6391.0270.889

    3.1582.4431.5241.1580.981

    3.3452.5031.4651.2131.009

    3.2752.6031.6641.271.18

    3.1172.6591.8861.291.315

    3.5973.061.8941.399

    3.473.1312.0531.555

    3.6793.2742.1181.591

    3.8083.4032.3731.825

    3.9233.6292.6061.903

    4.5484.0422.7722.19

    4.7074.1522.9252.387

    4.8964.0423.1062.566

    5.2384.7353.2633.001

    5.5634.8733.433.243

    6.0355.2063.754

    6.3925.5814.157

    6.7096.0484.544

    7.2396.4514.98

    7.7746.9655.158

    8.3057.65.753

    8.2747.9166.281

    8.3798.4336.907

    9.4759.3147.215

    10.3639.7848.257

    11.44310.401

    12.03911.583

    12.73312.421

    13.78813.666

    14.77514.695

    16.08916.02

    17.00216.826

    1920

    1930

    1940

    1950

    1960

    1969

    Age

    Mortality rate (deaths per 1000 people)

    Male Mortality in Japan by birth cohort 1920-1969

    MLE Russia vs. Less Developed

    Figure

    Male Life Expectancy

    Russia vs less developed countries

    1950-2025

    Male Life Expectancy (years)

    YearRussiaLess Developed RegionsLess Developed Regions, Excluding ChinaLess Developed Regions, Excluding Least Developed Countries

    1950-195560.540.040.841.0

    1955-196062.543.543.944.6

    1960-196563.347.046.448.3

    1965-197064.551.848.753.3

    1970-197563.854.350.955.9

    1975-198062.756.153.057.8

    1980-198562.657.454.859.4

    1985-199064.958.956.961.2

    1990-199560.659.658.162.5

    1995-200060.060.458.963.7

    2000-200559.161.259.764.6

    2005-201058.762.260.965.6

    2010-201559.663.762.166.4

    2015-202061.364.963.267.1

    2020-202562.966.164.468.0

    MLE Russia vs. Less Developed

    60.540

    62.543.5

    63.347

    64.551.8

    63.854.3

    62.756.1

    62.657.4

    64.958.9

    60.659.6

    6060.4

    59.161.2

    58.762.2

    59.663.7

    61.364.9

    62.966.1

    Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2003 Revision, Population Database accessed 12 April 2005, available online at http://esa.un.org/unpp.

    Russia

    Less Developed Regions

    Year

    Male Life Expectancy (years)

    Figure 15. Male Life Expectancy: Russia vs. Less Developed Regions, 1950-2025

    LE at Birth

    Source:

    Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 2002, Table 2.6;

    Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 1994, Table 2.5

    RUSSIA

    Life Expectancy at Birth

    Life Expectancy at Birth

    YearMaleFemalem (93)f (93)

    1958-5963.0071.506371.5

    1961-6263.7872.3863.872.4

    1963-6464.4073.0064.473

    1965-6664.3273.4164.373.4

    1966-6764.1673.49

    1967-6863.9273.5463.973.5

    1968-6963.4673.50

    1969-7063.1573.3963.273.4

    1970-7163.2173.55

    1971-7263.2173.6063.273.6

    1972-7363.2173.49

    1973-7463.1673.5863.273.6

    1974-7562.7873.41

    1975-7662.3273.0362.373

    1976-7762.0073.11

    1977-7861.8373.1761.873.2

    1978-7961.6673.11

    1979-8061.4573.0061.573

    1980-8161.5373.09

    1981-8261.9973.476273.5

    1982-8362.2773.63

    1983-8462.0073.316273.3

    1984-8562.3173.32

    1985-8663.8373.9963.874

    1986-8764.9174.5564.974.6

    198864.8074.4364.874.4

    198964.2174.4764.274.5

    199063.7974.2763.874.3

    199163.4674.2763.574.3

    199262.0273.756273.8

    199358.9171.8858.971.9

    199457.5971.18

    199558.2771.70

    199659.7572.49

    199760.7572.89

    199861.3072.93

    199959.9372.38

    200059.0072.20

    200158.9672.34

    200258.6072.10

    200358.8271.99

    Source:

    Source for the 2002 figures: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline September 25, 2003

    LE at Birth

    71.563

    72.3863.78

    7364.4

    73.4164.32

    73.4964.16

    73.5463.92

    73.563.46

    73.3963.15

    73.5563.21

    73.663.21

    73.4963.21

    73.5863.16

    73.4162.78

    73.0362.32

    73.1162

    73.1761.83

    73.1161.66

    7361.45

    73.0961.53

    73.4761.99

    73.6362.27

    73.3162

    73.3262.31

    73.9963.83

    74.5564.91

    74.4364.8

    74.4764.21

    74.2763.79

    74.2763.46

    73.7562.02

    71.8858.91

    71.1857.59

    71.758.27

    72.4959.75

    72.8960.75

    72.9361.3

    72.3859.93

    72.259

    72.3458.96

    72.158.6

    71.9958.82

    Female

    Male

    Year

    Life Expectancy at Birth(years)

    Life Expectancy at Birth1958-59, 1961-62, 1963-64, 1965-2003

    Total Fertility Rate

    Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 2002), Table 2.6

    The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 1993 (State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, 1993), Table 2.5

    RUSSIA

    Total Fertility Rate

    YearTotal Fertility Rate

    1961-622.417

    1965-662.125

    1966-672.072

    1967-681.998

    1968-691.975

    1969-701.972

    1970-712.007

    1971-722.053

    1972-732.023

    1973-742.000

    1974-751.993

    1975-761.969

    1976-771.967

    1977-781.938

    1978-791.902

    1979-801.888

    1980-811.895

    1981-821.951

    1982-832.047

    1983-842.083

    1984-852.057

    1985-862.111

    1986-872.194

    19882.130

    19892.007

    19901.887

    19911.732

    19921.552

    19931.385

    19941.400

    19951.344

    19961.281

    19971.230

    19981.242

    19991.171

    20001.214

    20011.249

    20021.322

    20031.319

    Source:

    Total Fertility Rate

    2.417

    2.125

    2.072

    1.998

    1.975

    1.972

    2.007

    2.053

    2.023

    2

    1.993

    1.969

    1.967

    1.938

    1.902

    1.888

    1.895

    1.951

    2.047

    2.083

    2.057

    2.111

    2.194

    2.13

    2.007

    1.887

    1.732

    1.552

    1.385

    1.4

    1.344

    1.281

    1.23

    1.242

    1.171

    1.214

    1.249

    1.322

    1.319

    TFR

    Year

    Total Fertility Rate(Births per Woman)

    Total Fertility Rate: 1961-62, 1965-2003

    Marriage and Divorce

    Marriage and Divorce Rates 1960,1965-2004

    Sources: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002, Goskomstat of Russia, p. 119, The Russian Federation Ejegodnik: 2004, Goskomstat of

    For the 2004 figures "Russia's Population Decreased in 2004", ITAR-TASS newsagency, February 24, 2005.

    RUSSIA

    Marriage and Divorce Rates

    Marriage RateDivorce Rate

    Year(marraiges per 1000 population)(divorces per 1000 population)

    196012.51.5

    19658.71.8

    19669.03.2

    19679.13.2

    19689.13.2

    19699.73.0

    197010.13.0

    197110.43.1

    197210.03.1

    197310.63.2

    197410.93.5

    197511.13.6

    197610.73.9

    197711.24.1

    197811.14.1

    197911.14.3

    198010.64.2

    198110.64.1

    198210.44.0

    198310.54.1

    19849.64.0

    19859.74.0

    19869.84.0

    19879.94.0

    19889.53.9

    19899.43.9

    19908.93.8

    19918.64.0

    19927.14.3

    19937.54.5

    19947.44.6

    19957.34.5

    19965.93.8

    19976.33.8

    19985.83.4

    19996.33.7

    20006.24.3

    20016.95.3

    20027.16.0

    20037.65.5

    20046.74.4

    Source:

    Marriage and Divorce

    12.51.5

    8.71.8

    93.2

    9.13.2

    9.13.2

    9.73

    10.13

    10.43.1

    103.1

    10.63.2

    10.93.5

    11.13.6

    10.73.9

    11.24.1

    11.14.1

    11.14.3

    10.64.2

    10.64.1

    10.44

    10.54.1

    9.64

    9.74

    9.84

    9.94

    9.53.9

    9.43.9

    8.93.8

    8.64

    7.14.3

    7.54.5

    7.44.6

    7.34.5

    5.93.8

    6.33.8

    5.83.4

    6.33.7

    6.24.3

    6.95.3

    7.16

    7.65.5

    6.74.42

    Marriage Rate

    Divorce Rate

    Year

    Marriage Rate, Divorce Rate (marraiges or divorces per 1000 population)

    Out of Wedlock

    Source: The Demographic Yearbook of Russia: 2002 Statistical Handbook, State Committee of the Russian Federation

    on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), Moscow, 2002, Table 4.5.

    Russia

    Live Births to Unmarried Women

    YearTotal Live Births (Legitimate and Illegitimate)Registered Marriage (Legitimate)Unregistered Marriage (Illegitimate)% Out of Wedlock

    By Mutual Declaration of ParentsBy Declaration of MotherTotal(Illegitimate/Total)

    19701,903,71382,463118,7771,702,473201,2400.1057

    19752,106,147105,864119,2691,881,014225,1330.1069

    19802,202,77990,665146,9001,965,214237,5650.1078

    19812,236,6081,987,529249,0790.1114

    19822,328,0442,069,797258,2470.1109

    19832,478,3222,206,739271,5830.1096

    19842,409,6142,133,483276,1310.1146

    19852,375,1472,090,131285,0160.1200

    19862,485,9152,177,411308,5040.1241

    19872,499,9742,182,547317,4270.1270

    19882,348,494127,141177,2832,044,070304,4240.1296

    19892,160,559123,615168,1101,868,834291,7250.1350

    19901,988,858124,244166,3571,698,257290,6010.1461

    19911,794,626118,548169,3961,506,682287,9440.1604

    19921,587,644112,705159,5501,315,389272,2550.1715

    19931,378,983108,545142,1691,128,269250,7140.1818

    19941,408,159119,319156,4461,132,394275,7650.1958

    19951,363,806124,168164,1231,075,515288,2910.2114

    19961,304,638130,060169,8131,004,765299,8730.2299

    19971,259,943136,828182,335940,780319,1630.2533

    19981,283,292149,714196,177937,401345,8910.2695

    19991,214,689151,956187,327875,406339,2830.2793

    20001,266,800167,261186,992912,547354,2530.2796

    20011,311,604179,466197,795934,343377,2610.2876

    20021,396,800411,4610.2890

    20031,477,301430,6630.2915

    Out of Wedlock

    0.1057092114

    0.1068932985

    0.1078478595

    0.11136462

    0.1109287453

    0.1095834197

    0.1145955327

    0.1199993095

    0.1241007838

    0.1269721205

    0.1296251981

    0.1350229269

    0.1461145039

    0.1604479151

    0.1714836575

    0.1818107982

    0.1958337091

    0.2113871034

    0.229851499

    0.2533154278

    0.2695341356

    0.2793167634

    0.2796439848

    0.2876333101

    0.289

    0.2915

    % Illegitimate

    Year

    Percent of Births Occurring Out of Wedlock (Illegitimate Births / Total Live Births)

    Proportion of Births Occurring Out of Wedlock1970, 1975, 1980-2003

    Male Pop 15-24

    Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision.

    Male Population Age 15-24: Russia, 1950-2025

    YearMale Population (Thousands)

    15-1920-2415-24YearAgeBoth sexes combinedMaleFemaleYearAgeBoth sexes combinedMaleFemaleYearAgeBoth sexes combinedMaleFemale

    1950498055591053919500-4100415181485919550-4126376487615019600-41346268566606

    195561394934110735-97405374236625-910005516148445-91252264256097

    196037006051975110-14122446157608710-1473983737366210-14993751234815

    196550763640871615-1999114980493115-19122216139608215-19733337003633

    1970631950011132020-24117155559615620-2498514934491720-241208560516035

    1975654061641270425-2973262889443725-29116165479613725-29970748354872

    1980586066731253330-3459522357359630-3472582839441930-341143953596080

    1985476259291069135-3981343094504035-3958722302357035-39711927564363

    1990519648951009140-4470072630437740-4479772995498240-44572322163507

    1995550952691077845-4958241962386145-4967962505429145-49770228404861

    2000627755781185550-5442871467282050-5455711827374450-54646323224141

    2005610262041230655-5934171226219155-5940221329269355-59520816483560

    2010411860231014160-6430861059202860-6431081066204360-64365111512500

    201533564085744165-692422764165865-692696871182465-6927058741831

    202036813342702370-741782510127270-741982583139970-7421986621535

    202539633669763275-79118329988475-79131534297275-7914573901067

    80-8458013444780-8469616053680-84765182583

    85-892705221885-892665521185-8931865253

    90-9492147890-9491157690-94891674

    95-992121895-992031895-9920317

    100+303100+303100+302

    19650-4121256183594219700-493634767459519750-41010251324970

    5-913344679265525-912022612558975-9935347464607

    10-14124346376605810-14132546740651410-141182560335792

    15-1998565076478015-19123386319601915-191288065406340

    20-2472383640359820-2497445001474320-241215761645993

    25-29119275940598725-2971303565356525-29964748964751

    30-3495504728482230-34117545815593930-34708635123574

    35-39112305219601135-3993644598476635-391155656495907

    40-4469502658429340-44109685039592840-44908843914697

    45-4955302105342545-4967242523420245-491061548105805

    50-5473492643470750-5452741955331950-54661323794234

    55-5960542103395255-5969012393450855-59505817943264

    60-6447581433332560-6455311827370560-64636921244246

    65-693205948225765-6941971179301865-69488714863401

    70-742222667155570-742653723193070-7434288782550

    75-791630446118575-791655449120775-7919044611443

    80-8485820964980-8496323972580-841013240773

    85-893557528085-894048631885-8947098371

    90-94109199090-941252210390-9414825123

    95-992031795-992532295-9930426

    100+302100+303100+403

    19800-4106765427524919850-4116405925571519900-41155158955656

    5-910078511849605-910719544352765-91172759595768

    10-1492634703456010-14101195148497110-141078854735315

    15-19115105860565015-1993424762458015-191021651965020

    20-24130226673634920-24116825929575320-24955448954659

    25-29122076177603025-29130396623641725-291176159745787

    30-34100455047499730-34121256084604130-341299165436449

    35-3964473159328835-3998484894495335-391206060126048

    40-44113135446586740-4463033047325640-44968347684915

    45-4985964072452545-49108855146574045-49614729283218

    50-54102364574566250-5481793762441750-541045348435610

    55-5965482292425655-5995674099546855-59773734434294

    60-6445581526303260-6459721973400060-64881635915225

    65-6955351710382565-6939951234276165-69530916373672

    70-7441261137298970-7445511263328770-7433279362391

    75-792607586202175-793015728228775-7934078352572

    80-84117925192980-841562305125880-8418283911437

    85-8949810039885-8956210046285-89760126634

    90-941732914490-941772814990-9420529176

    95-993653195-994153695-9943538

    100+404100+505100+605

    19950-479094059385020000-465953377321720050-4722537093517

    5-911686596657205-98093413939545-9657933673213

    10-14118566024583110-14120166121589410-14808141293952

    15-19108605509535115-19123636277608715-191200461025902

    20-24102705269500120-24110755578549720-241229962046095

    25-2995454887465825-29103755217515725-291093754485488

    30-34117205902581830-3496054792481230-341019250585134

    35-39128666399646735-39115915706588535-39938346084776

    40-44118325802603140-44125156065645040-441123154185813

    45-4993724512485945-49112575330592745-491198356536329

    50-5458162675314050-5488734095477850-541061448475767

    55-5997364309542755-5953172304301355-59819836064592

    60-6469732918405560-6488063622518460-64475819302829

    65-6976402867477365-6959202269365165-69750328314672

    70-7443701213315670-7460662045402170-74470016183082

    75-792457611184675-793160765239575-79434812883061

    80-842112449166380-841519327119280-8419624091553

    85-8988316272185-89103819584385-89749142607

    90-942514121090-943145426090-9437265306

    95-992962395-9959104995-99741361

    100+725100+513100+826

    20100-477723989378220150-474903845364420200-4684035133328

    5-97199369235075-97745397237735-9746938323637

    10-1465703360321010-1471863684350210-14773339643768

    15-1980754118395715-1965743356321815-19719236813511

    20-24119196023589620-2480514085396520-24657333423231

    25-29120736025604825-29117345880585425-29796940173951

    30-34106475228541930-34117395790594930-341146256945768

    35-3998774817506035-39102834971531235-391136955415828

    40-4490504351469940-4495034545495840-44991347155199

    45-49107325039569345-4986504056459545-49910942634846

    50-54113035146615750-54101464608553750-54821037384472

    55-5998334284555055-59105134581593255-59948141375344

    60-6473753046432960-6488973652524660-64956939445624

    65-6940831522256165-6963922441395165-69777229604812

    70-7460132039397470-7433121114219870-74525318223432

    75-7934151034238175-7944341323311175-7924827371745

    80-842723701202280-842183574160980-8428887462143

    85-8999318081385-891400314108785-891155261894

    90-942774822990-943786131790-94551108443

    95-9990167495-9970125895-991001585

    100+1129100+14311100+12210

    20250-461623165299720300-459033033287020350-4608431262957

    5-96825350233235-96151315729945-9589430272868

    10-1474613826363510-1468213499332210-14614931552994

    15-1977403963377715-1974723827364415-19683535033332

    20-2471923669352320-2477423953378920-24748138233658

    25-2965233299322425-2971403628351125-29769139163775

    30-3478193917390230-3464123229318330-34702335593463

    35-39111485489565935-3976263796383035-39626531423123

    40-44110045295570940-44108215275554640-44742036653754

    45-4995424456508645-49106295040559045-491047650455431

    50-5486883964472450-5491374174496450-541021247525460

    55-5977153389432655-5982053627457855-59866238454817

    60-6486813599508260-6471062979412760-64759832194380

    65-6984193235518565-6976882983470565-69633524973838

    70-7464512239421270-7470472477457070-74648323114172

    75-7940001231276975-7949741536343875-79548817233764

    80-841649424122580-842708723198580-8434219182503

    85-891574346122885-8992120072185-8915433461197

    90-944719138090-9466312254190-9440072328

    95-991512712495-991342311195-9919630165

    100+16314100+25421100+25421

    20400-463373257307920450-462983238306020500-4591530422874

    5-96076312129555-96330325230785-9629232343059

    10-1458943025286810-1460763120295610-14633032523079

    15-1961663161300515-1959123032288015-19609531282968

    20-2468523504334820-2461903168302220-24594030422898

    25-2974413795364725-2968293486334325-29618131583023

    30-3475753851372430-3473453742360430-34675834473311

    35-3968733474339935-3974293770365935-39722336753548

    40-4461103047306340-4467183382333640-44728036823598

    45-4972033523368045-4959502943300645-49655932793280

    50-54100884780530950-5469583355360250-54576628182949

    55-5997164410530655-5996234457516655-59665831463512

    60-6480533436461760-6490743974510060-64900740364972

    65-6968172726409065-6972582933432565-69822534284797

    70-7453851960342570-7458402166367470-74625423533902

    75-7950931628346475-7942721401287175-79468015723108

    80-8438221045277780-843585999258580-8430468752171

    85-891989446154385-892261515174585-8921545011653

    90-9468712656290-9490816474490-941054192862

    95-991221810495-992163118595-9929341252

    100+35530100+26323100+41536

    Male Pop 15-24

    12704

    12533

    10691

    10091

    10778

    11855

    12306

    10141

    7441

    7023

    7632

    Population

    Year

    Male Population (Thousands)

    Male Population Age 15-24: Russia, 1975-2025 (medium variant projection)

    Total pop 15-24

    Total Population 15-24, Russia 1975-2025

    Year(thousands)(%)

    19752503718.7

    19802453317.7

    19852102414.7

    19901977013.3

    19952113014.3

    20002343816

    20052430317

    20101999514.3

    20151462510.7

    20201376510.3

    20251493211.6

    Total pop 15-24

    Year

    Total Population (thousands)

    Total Population Age 15-24, Russia, 1975-2025, (medium variant projection)

    E.Europe-Russia 15-24

    Population Age 15-24 Eastern Europe without Russia, 1975-2025 (medium variant)

    YearsE.EuropeRussiaE.Europe-Russia

    1975512592503726222

    1980492022453224670

    1985439132102422889

    1990429891977023219

    1995458152113024685

    2000482602343824822

    2005482192430323916

    2010410061999421012

    2015312561462516631

    2020278771376514112

    2025285031493213571

    E.Europe-Russia 15-24

    Population Ages 15-24 Eastern Europe-Russia,1975-2025 (medium variant projection)

    Year

    Population Ages 15-24

    Age Pyramids E.Europe-Russia

    Age PyramidsEstimated and Projected Population Structure of Eastern Europe: 2000 vs. 2025

    totalmenwomen

    2000Eastern EuropeRussiaE.Europe--RussiaE.E.menRussia menE.E.-Russia menE.E.womenRussia womenE.E.--Russia women

    0-4140936595749872283377-3851686632173649

    5-10175828093948990014139-4862858139544627

    10-15238731201611857121766121-60551169758945803

    15-19246881236312325125586277-62811212960876042

    20-24235721107512497119185578-63401165454976157

    25-29220481037511673111235217-59061092451575767

    30-3420184960510579101024792-53101008248125270

    35-39225421159110951111365706-54301140658855521

    40-44245961251512081119926065-59271260564506155

    45-49231371125711880110805330-57501205759276130

    50-54185668873969386994095-4604986747785089

    55-59130455317772858332304-3529721130134198

    60-64174858806867974123622-37901007451844890

    65-69129775920705752352269-2966774236514091

    70-74126046066653845292045-2484807540214054

    75-797443316042832179765-1414526323952868

    80-84327015191751850327-523242011921228

    85-89219510381157506195-3111688843845

    90-9462931431513254-78497260237

    95-9910159422010-10814932

    100+75221-1532

    2025

    0-4118866162572461073165-2942577929972782

    5-10131046825627967283502-3226637533233052

    10-15141217461666072463826-3420687536353240

    15-19145557740681574573963-3494709837773321

    20-24139487192675671193669-3450682935233306

    25-29136426523711969153299-3616672732243503

    30-34167677819894884353917-4518833239024430

    35-39222231114811075110395489-55501118456595525

    40-44223241100411320109205295-56251140357095694

    45-4920865954211323100174456-55611084850865762

    50-541906386881037589873964-50231007647245352

    55-59168087715909376783389-4289913043264804

    60-64175488681886775953599-3996995450824872

    65-69174558419903671073235-38721034851855163

    70-74142516451780053582239-3119889342124681

    75-7991814000518131221231-1891606027693291

    80-844561164929121338424-914322212251997

    85-89342015741846820346-474260012281372

    90-94109847162721791-126881380501

    95-992981511474727-20251124127

    100+30161443-1261412

    Age Pyramids E.Europe-Russia

    Male

    Female

    2025 2000

    men 2000

    women 2000

    men 2025

    women 2025

    Estimated and Projected Population Structure of Eastern Europe: 2000 vs. 2025

    Age Pyramids Russia

    Age Pyramids Russia

    Russia: Population Structure 2000 (estimated) vs. 2025 (projected)

    YearAgeBoth sexes combinedMaleFemaleYearAgeBoth sexes combinedMaleFemale

    20000-46595-3377321720250-46162-31652997

    5-98093-413939545-96825-35023323

    10-1412016-6121589410-147461-38263635

    15-1912363-6277608715-197740-39633777

    20-2411075-5578549720-247192-36693523

    25-2910375-5217515725-296523-32993224

    30-349605-4792481230-347819-39173902

    35-3911591-5706588535-3911148-54895659

    40-4412515-6065645040-4411004-52955709

    45-4911257-5330592745-499542-44565086

    50-548873-4095477850-548688-39644724

    55-595317-2304301355-597715-33894326

    60-648806-3622518460-648681-35995082

    65-695920-2269365165-698419-32355185

    70-746066-2045402170-746451-22394212

    75-793160-765239575-794000-12312769

    80-841519-327119280-841649-4241225

    85-891038-19584385-891574-3461228

    90-94314-5426090-94471-91380

    95-9959-104995-99151-27124

    100+5-13100+16-314

    Age Pyramids Russia

    Female

    Male

    2000

    2025

    2000

    2025

    Russia: Population Sctructure 2000 vs. 2025 (medium variant projection)

    Jap Female Mort by Birth Cohort

    Female Mortality by birth cohort 1920-1969 (Japan)

    Rate (1920)Rate*1000 (1920)Rate (1930)Rate*1000(1930)Rate (1940)Rate*1000(1940)Rate (1950)Rate*1000(1950)Rate (1960)Rate*1000(1960)Rate (1969)

    0.0032453.250.0011911.190.0006180.620.000350.350.000304

    0.0027672.770.0011141.110.0006050.610.0003060.310.000313

    0.0023892.390.001021.020.000570.570.0003530.350.000258

    0.0023512.350.0010031.000.0006480.650.0003780.380.00031

    0.0023412.340.0009830.980.0005950.600.000360.360.000266

    0.0020722.070.0009720.970.0006220.620.0003610.360.000332

    0.002072.070.0009110.910.0005710.570.0003670.370.000285

    0.0020272.030.0008880.890.0005420.540.0003850.390.000331

    0.0016971.700.0009620.960.0005150.520.0004080.410.000334

    0.0017231.720.0008910.890.0004910.490.0004060.410.000354

    0.0046234.620.001581.580.0009080.910.0005410.540.0004020.40

    0.0038633.860.0015871.590.0009350.940.0005530.550.0004170.42

    0.0031403.140.0014721.470.0009240.920.000560.560.0004420.44

    0.0030803.080.0014251.430.0009310.930.0005530.550.0004420.44

    0.0029302.930.001451.450.0009971.000.0006060.610.0005130.51

    0.0026962.700.0014541.450.0008880.890.0006520.650.0004790.48

    0.0028292.830.0014481.450.0008560.860.0006570.660.0005280.53

    0.0027682.770.0015121.510.0009880.990.0006820.680.0005880.59

    0.0025332.530.0016421.640.001021.020.0007830.780.0006430.64

    0.0026442.640.0017121.710.0011231.120.000820.82

    0.0026102.610.0017011.700.0011041.100.0008690.87

    0.0026542.650.0016941.690.0012081.210.0009250.93

    0.0026682.670.0017441.740.0012471.250.0010571.06

    0.0026182.620.001911.910.00131.300.0011051.11

    0.0030483.050.0021652.170.0014251.430.0012681.27

    0.0030213.020.0020232.020.0014791.480.0013131.31

    0.0031223.120.0020572.060.0016271.630.0013871.39

    0.0033323.330.0022492.250.0017381.740.0014891.49

    0.0034303.430.0024612.460.0017851.790.00161.60

    0.0038853.890.0025442.540.0020432.04

    0.0039743.970.0027412.740.0021152.12

    0.0039483.950.0029032.900.0022712.27

    0.0042454.250.0030363.040.0024332.43

    0.0046334.630.0031473.150.0025932.59

    0.0048734.870.0032883.290.002732.73

    0.0043624.360.0034513.450.0029882.99

    0.0044674.470.0035843.580.0030713.07

    0.0052865.290.0038513.850.003313.31

    0.0054185.420.0040844.080.0035393.54

    0.0059775.980.0044824.48

    Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on April 11, 2005

    Jap Female Mort by Birth Cohort

    203.2451.1910.6180.350.304

    212.7671.1140.6050.3060.313

    222.3891.020.570.3530.258

    232.3511.0030.6480.3780.31

    242.3410.9830.5950.360.266

    252.0720.9720.6220.3610.332

    262.070.9110.5710.3670.285

    272.0270.8880.5420.3850.331

    281.6970.9620.5150.4080.334

    291.7230.8910.4910.4060.354

    4.6231.580.9080.5410.402

    3.8631.5870.9350.5530.417

    3.141.4720.9240.560.442

    3.081.4250.9310.5530.442

    2.931.450.9970.6060.513

    2.6961.4540.8880.6520.479

    2.8291.4480.8560.6570.528

    2.7681.5120.9880.6820.588

    2.5331.6421.020.7830.643

    2.6441.7121.1230.82

    2.611.7011.1040.869

    2.6541.6941.2080.925

    2.6681.7441.2471.057

    2.6181.911.31.105

    3.0482.1651.4251.268

    3.0212.0231.4791.313

    3.1222.0571.6271.387

    3.3322.2491.7381.489

    3.432.4611.7851.6

    3.8852.5442.04349

    3.9742.7412.11550

    3.9482.9032.27151

    4.2453.0362.43352

    4.6333.1472.59353

    4.8733.2882.7354

    4.3623.4512.98855

    4.4673.5843.07156

    5.2863.8513.3157

    5.4184.0843.53958

    5.9774.4825959

    6.214.786060

    6.8055.2556161

    7.145.6156262

    7.5045.96363

    8.1676.4016464

    8.8726.9126565

    1920

    1930

    1940

    1950

    1960

    1969

    Ages

    Mortality rates (deaths per thousand people)

    Mortality Rates in Japan for birth cohorts 1920-1969 (females)

    LE and HIV

    yearcensusmildintermedsevere

    200065.565.165.165.1

    200165.665.365.365.3

    200265.865.465.465.4

    20036665.365.365.3

    200466.264.964.964.9

    200566.464.864.664.5

    200666.664.964.463.9

    200766.864.964.263.4

    200866.96563.962.9

    200967.16563.762.4

    201067.36563.461.9

    201167.56563.261.4

    201267.765.26361

    201367.965.56360.7

    201468.165.86360.4

    201568.365.962.960.1

    201668.46662.859.8

    201768.666.162.759.5

    201868.866.362.659.2

    20196966.462.558.8

    202069.266.662.458.5

    202169.466.762.258.1

    202269.666.862.157.7

    202369.86761.957.3

    2024706761.756.9

    202570.167.261.656.6

    LE and HIV

    No HIV

    2 % prevalance

    6 % prevalance

    10 % prevalance

    Year

    Life Expectancy at Birth (years)

    Figure 5: Projected Life Expectancy With and Without HIV Russia 2000-2025

    UN and Census Projections

    Russian FederationPopulation (thousands)High variant2000-2025

    YearPopulation

    2000146560

    2005143202

    2010141420

    2015140132

    2020138654

    2025136611

    Russian FederationPopulation (thousands)Medium variant2000-2025

    YearPopulation

    2000146560

    2005143202

    2010140028

    2015136696

    2020133101

    2025129230

    Russian FederationPopulation (thousands)Low variant2000-2025

    YearPopulation

    2000146560

    2005143202

    2010138639

    2015133243

    2020127458

    2025121721

    US Census Bureau International Data Base Projections

    2000146732

    2005143420

    2010140771

    2015137810

    2020134386

    2025130535

    UN and Census Projections

    146560146560146560146731.774

    143202143202143202143420.309

    141420140028138639140771.044

    140132136696133243137810.456

    138654133101127458134385.872

    136611129230121721130534.651

    UN High Variant

    UN Medium Variant

    UN Low Variant

    US Census

    Year

    Population (in thousands of people)

    Population Projections for the Russian Federation 2000-2025

    Rus Female Mort by Birth Cohort

    AgeRate (1920)Rate*1000 (1920)Rate (1930)Rate*1000 (1930)Rate (1940)Rate*1000 (1940)Rate (1950)Rate*1000 (1950)Rate (1960)Rate*1000 (1960)Rate (1970)Rate*1000 (1970)

    200.0007950.7950.0007730.7730.0007520.752

    210.0007260.7260.0007720.7720.0007610.761

    220.0007390.7390.0007080.7080.0008850.885

    230.0007460.7460.0007390.7390.0009910.991

    240.0007680.7680.0007640.7640.0010591.059

    250.0008580.8580.0007550.7550.0012441.244

    260.0009440.9440.0006880.6880.0012121.212

    270.0009620.9620.0006710.6710.0011261.126

    280.00100010.0007680.7680.0012241.224

    290.0011041.1040.0008560.8560.0014141.414

    300.0011871.1870.0012761.2760.0009510.951

    310.0012661.2660.0012511.2510.0010641.064

    320.0013641.3640.0012921.2920.0012671.267

    330.0013691.3690.0014151.4150.0016151.615

    340.0014441.4440.0014891.4890.0020642.064

    350.0016771.6770.0015501.550.0022512.251

    360.0017481.7480.0013761.3760.0020972.097

    370.0019551.9550.0013491.3490.0020142.014

    380.0019921.9920.0016231.6230.0020712.071

    390.0022022.2020.0018071.8070.0025022.502

    400.0023452.3450.0025592.5590.0019851.985

    410.0023452.3450.0025792.5790.0023512.351

    420.0026072.6070.0026992.6990.0028472.847

    430.002672.670.0028842.8840.0039393.939

    440.0029712.9710.0033233.3230.0048654.865

    450.0034133.4130.0032883.2880.0050665.066

    460.0038823.8820.0030663.0660.0048324.832

    470.004184.180.0032533.2530.0046554.655

    480.0045254.5250.0035623.5620.0048384.838

    490.0050115.0110.0040094.0090.0056575.657

    500.005325.320.0056235.6230.0047184.718

    510.0051295.1290.0056475.6470.0050865.086

    520.0057555.7550.0059265.9260.0059135.913

    530.006086.080.0067856.7850.0079767.976

    540.0068776.8770.0074317.4310.0096749.674

    550.0077677.7670.0078097.8090.01009710.097

    560.0084248.4240.0076847.6840.0098879.887

    570.0089438.9430.0081688.1680.0099069.906

    580.0099529.9520.0088398.8390.01002110.021

    590.0110211.020.0098979.8970.01181311.813

    Source: www.mortality.org, accessed on April 11, 2005

    Rus Female Mort by Birth Cohort

    200.7950.7730.752

    210.7260.7720.761

    220.7390.7080.885

    230.7460.7390.991

    240.7680.7641.059

    250.8580.7551.244

    260.9440.6881.212

    270.9620.6711.126

    2810.7681.224

    291.1040.8561.414

    301.1871.2760.951

    311.2661.2511.064

    321.3641.2921.267

    331.3691.4151.615

    341.4441.4892.064

    351.6771.552.251

    361.7481.3762.097

    371.9551.3492.014

    381.9921.6232.071

    392.2021.8072.502

    402.3452.5591.985

    412.3452.5792.351

    422.6072.6992.847

    432.672.8843.939

    442.9713.3234.865

    453.4133.2885.066

    463.8823.0664.832

    474.183.2534.655

    484.5253.5624.838

    495.0114.0095.657

    5.325.6234.718

    5.1295.6475.086

    5.7555.9265.913

    6.086.7857.976

    6.8777.4319.674

    7.7677.80910.097

    8.4247.6849.887

    8.9438.1689.906

    9.9528.83910.021

    11.029.89711.813

    12.67511.047

    12.97112.135

    14.12214.087

    15.58117.63

    17.42121.173

    18.88221.605

    1920

    1930

    1940

    1950

    1960

    1970

    Age

    Mortality rate (deaths per 1000 people)

    Female Mortality in Russia by birth cohort 1920-1970

  • Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database, (medium variant projection)NOTE: UNDPs definition of Eastern Europe excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia

    Chart1

    -38513649-29422782

    -48624627-32263052

    -60555803-34203240

    -62816042-34943321

    -63406157-34503306

    -59065767-36163503

    -53105270-45184430

    -54305521-55505525

    -59276155-56255694

    -57506130-55615762

    -46045089-50235352

    -35294198-42894804

    -37904890-39964872

    -29664091-38725163

    -24844054-31194681

    -14142868-18913291

    -5231228-9141997

    -311845-4741372

    -78237-126501

    -1032-20127

    -12-112

    Male

    Female

    2025 2000

    men 2000

    women 2000

    men 2025

    women 2025

    Estimated and Projected Population Structure, Eastern Europe (minus Russia): 2000 vs. 2025

    Sheet1

    Age Pyramyds

    totalmenwomen

    2000Eastern EuropeRussiaE.Europe--RussiaE.E.menRussia menE.E.-Russia menE.E.womenRussia womenE.E.--Russia women

    0-4140936595749872283377-3851686632173649

    5-10175828093948990014139-4862858139544627

    10-15238731201611857121766121-60551169758945803

    15-19246881236312325125586277-62811212960876042

    20-24235721107512497119185578-63401165454976157

    25-29220481037511673111235217-59061092451575767

    30-3420184960510579101024792-53101008248125270

    35-39225421159110951111365706-54301140658855521

    40-44245961251512081119926065-59271260564506155

    45-49231371125711880110805330-57501205759276130

    50-54185668873969386994095-4604986747785089

    55-59130455317772858332304-3529721130134198

    60-64174858806867974123622-37901007451844890

    65-69129775920705752352269-2966774236514091

    70-74126046066653845292045-2484807540214054

    75-797443316042832179765-1414526323952868

    80-84327015191751850327-523242011921228

    85-89219510381157506195-3111688843845

    90-9462931431513254-78497260237

    95-9910159422010-10814932

    100+75221-1532

    2025

    0-4118866162572461073165-2942577929972782

    5-10131046825627967283502-3226637533233052

    10-15141217461666072463826-3420687536353240

    15-19145557740681574573963-3494709837773321

    20-24139487192675671193669-3450682935233306

    25-29136426523711969153299-3616672732243503

    30-34167677819894884353917-4518833239024430

    35-39222231114811075110395489-55501118456595525

    40-44223241100411320109205295-56251140357095694

    45-4920865954211323100174456-55611084850865762

    50-541906386881037589873964-50231007647245352

    55-59168087715909376783389-4289913043264804

    60-64175488681886775953599-3996995450824872

    65-69174558419903671073235-38721034851855163

    70-74142516451780053582239-3119889342124681

    75-7991814000518131221231-1891606027693291

    80-844561164929121338424-914322212251997

    85-89342015741846820346-474260012281372

    90-94109847162721791-126881380501

    95-992981511474727-20251124127

    100+30161443-1261412

    Sheet1

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    Male

    Female

    2025 2000

    men 2000

    women 2000

    men 2025

    women 2025

    Estimated and Projected Population Structure of Eastern Europe: 2000 vs. 2025

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • Population Profiles,Post-Socialist Europe vs. Western Europe:Fundamental Differences Today

  • Basic Demographic Indicators For EuropeBy Region (UNPD Projections)W.EuropeRussia E.Europe(w/o Russia)Population (million)2005431145143

    Pop Growth %/yr2000/20050.33-0.46-0.52

    Net Reproduction Rate2000/20050.720.620.58

    Life Expectancy 2000/2005 (Years)77.665.470.5

    NOTE: UNDPs definition of Eastern Europe excludes the Baltic countries, Albania, and most of former Yugoslavia

  • Source: Calculated from Recent Demographic Developments in Europe, Council of Europe: Belgium, January 2005.

    Chart1

    188.2352941176

    160.7843137255

    166.2790697674

    154.4444444444

    166.2921348315

    140.625

    144.0860215054

    133.7078651685

    117.2043010753

    132.5842696629

    119.7674418605

    117.8217821782

    125.5102040816

    111.4942528736

    108.5106382979

    101.0416666667

    101.0638297872

    Deaths per 100 Births

    Country

    Deaths per 100 Births

    Deaths per 100 Birth for Negative Natural Increase Countries

    Single_parent

    Table: Childhood expectancy of he duration of living in selected family structure (in years, from birth to age 15) by child's birth status: children of the FFS female respondents

    CountryWith a single mother (no partner)Total with parents apartDifference

    Italy0.520.810.29

    Spain0.721.140.42

    Slovenia0.611.250.64

    Belgium0.821.410.59

    Switzerland1.031.70.67

    Poland1.412.030.62

    Hungary1.462.40.94

    France1.552.440.89

    Finland1.442.51.06

    Sweden2.083.161.08

    Czech Republic1.353.181.83

    Canada2.383.391.01

    Austria2.323.941.62

    Latvia2.143.971.83

    Germany2.693.991.3

    New Zealand2.965.082.12

    United States2.705.122.42

    Notes: Countries are listed in ascending order according to the expected duration of living (in years) with parents apart. Numbers are derived from synthetic chohorts at early 1990s rates.

    Single_parent

    With a single mother (no partner)

    Difference

    Country

    Expected duration of living with parents apart (in years)

    Childhood Expectancy of the Duration of Living with Parents Apart (in years, from birth to age 15): Children of the FFS Female Respondents

    De