Health And Aging in the Atlanta Region

Mike Carnathan

Manager, Research & Analytics

Atlanta Regional Commission/Neighborhood Nexus

Setting the Demographic Stage

We’re Still Growing!

Source: US Census

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Change, 2010-2018

Race and Ethnicity Change 2010-18

Source: ESRI Demographics

75,347

-200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000

Houston

Dallas

New York

Los Angeles

Phoenix

Atlanta

Washington

Miami

Seattle

Denver

Orlando

San Francisco

Charlotte

Tampa

Boston

Minneapolis

Nashville

Portland

White NH Black NH Asian NH Other NH Hispanic

Growth We’re Getting Lately Looks Different Than the Growth We Got in The Past…

…And That Trend Will Continue

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%

% Black

% Hispanic

% Other

% White

Shares of Race/Ethnicity 2015-2050

2015 2050

Source: DRAFT Series 16 Forecasts, ARC

Global Aging

Where We Stand Today – Age Trends

25.7 28.2 24.4 23.526.6 23.8 22.8

27.7 26.7 25.6

19.9

25.4

23.6 25.6 21.6

17.226.9

22.421.1 20.8

22.5

20.7

22 21.5 22.3

19.1

21.8 22.8 22.620.1

19.6

17.319 18.2 18.8

23.3

17.718.2

1920.6

12.38.4 11 11.1 10.7

16.510.8 8.9 10.6 13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cherokee County Clayton County Cobb County DeKalb County Douglas County Fayette County Fulton County Gwinnett County Henry County Rockdale County

Population by Age Bands

% Population under age 18, 2017 % Population ages 18-34, 2017 % Population ages 35-49, 2017 % Population ages 50-64, 2017 % Population ages 65 and over, 2017

Source: American Community Survey, 2013-2017

How We’ve Grown, by Age, 2000-2017

-50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Cherokee

Clayton

Cobb

DeKalb

Douglas

Fayette

Fulton

Gwinnett

Henry

Rockdale

Growth By Age Band

Growth, Ages Under 18, 2000-2017 Growth, Ages 18-34, 2000-2017 Growth, Ages 35-49, 2000-2017 Growth, Ages 50-64, 2000-2017 Growth, Ages 65+, 2000-2017

Source: American Community Survey, 2013-2017

Contribution to Population Growth, by Age, 2000-2017

21.8%16.9% 16.5%

13.1%

24.7%

-1.6%

16.1%

26.7% 23.7%18.3% 20.5%

14.3%

4.0% 6.9%

-20.9%

15.8%

23.9%

15.6%

14.4% 17.9%

17.0% 11.5%

15.1%

3.7%4.0%

-4.1%

16.3%

-22.6%

12.6%

14.0%18.8%

-0.5%

10.5%

27.9%

51.2% 42.6%

69.4%

26.3%

46.8%

35.3%

28.9%25.2%

38.2%

35.5%

20.9% 24.1%30.0%

40.5%

16.8%

52.9%

20.5% 15.7%14.5%

27.5%21.8%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cherokee Clayton Cobb DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry Rockdale ARC10

Share of Total Growth, by Age Band, 2000-2017

Growth, Ages Under 18, 2000-2017 Growth, Ages 18-34, 2000-2017 Growth, Ages 35-49, 2000-2017 Growth, Ages 50-64, 2000-2017 Growth, Ages 65+, 2000-2017

Source: American Community Survey, 2013-2017

In Short, We’ve Gotten A Lot Older

-10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00

Cherokee County

Clayton County

Cobb County

DeKalb County

Douglas County

Fayette County

Fulton County

Gwinnett County

Henry County

Rockdale County

Change in the Share of Population by Age, 2000-2017

Change, % Population under age 18, 2000-2017 Change, % Population ages 18-34, 2000-2017

Change, % Population ages 35-49, 2000-2017 Change, % Population ages 50-64, 2000-2017

Change, % Population ages 65 and over, 2000-2017

Source: American Community Survey, 2013-2017

Maps! 65+ Distribution by

Census Tract

Overall Distribution – Age Diversity

Change in % 65+ by Census Tract

Fertility Rates Dropping

1.85

1.78

1.87 1.87

1.791.75 1.75

1.721.66

2.55

2.19 2.18

2.031.97

1.88 1.86 1.83 1.82

2.00

1.80

1.89

1.78

1.69 1.681.65

1.69

1.60

2.96

2.802.73

2.79

2.35

2.152.12 2.09

2.01

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2016 2017

US Fertility

White N.H. Black N.H. Asian Hispanic

Source: American Community Survey, 2013-2017

More Older Adults Working

95

97

99

101

103

105

107

109

111

113

115

2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1

Age of Employees

35-54 55-64 65+

Source: American Community Survey, 2013-2017

More Maps! Statewide Look at 65+ Population

How The 65+ Population Has Changed Since 2000

“Extreme” Aging

50

550

1050

1550

2050

2550

Ages 60-64 Ages 65-69 Ages 70-74 Ages 75-79 Ages 80-84 Ages 85+

Source: Series 15 Forecasts, ARC

“Extreme” Aging

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

% Ages 0-22 % Ages 23-38 % Ages 39-54 % Ages 55 - 74 % 75+

2015 2050

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Ages 0-22 Ages 23-38 Ages 39-54 Ages 55 - 74 Ages 75+

2015 2050

Source: DRAFT Series 16 Forecasts, ARC

Younger Generations the Most Diverse

Source: Census Estimates20

39.9%42.4%

48.0%

60.2%

70.8%

60.1%57.6%

52.0%

39.8%

29.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

0-14 15-34 35-49 50-69 70+

Race/Ethnicity By Age Groups, 20 Counties, 2017

% White % Non-White

Yes! We Have More Moving Bubbles!

Let’s Look at Health (and the Inequities that Persist)…

Health Inequities Between White and Black Residents

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

4,500.0

0.00

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Premature Deaths: Years of Life Lost before Age 75

White Black or African-American Difference

Source: GA DPH, Office of Health Indicators for Planning (OHIP), accessed from OASIS

Health Inequities Among White & Black Residents: Cardiovascular Diseases

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

0.00

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Premature Deaths Due to Cardiovascular DiseasesARC 10 Counties

White Black or African-American Difference

Source: GA DPH, Office of Health Indicators for Planning (OHIP), accessed from OASIS

Geography of Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy

Life expectancy at birth: 63.6(second lowest in the state)

Life expectancy at birth: 87.6(longest in the state)

Notice a Pattern?

Median Income, 2012-2016% Bachelor’s or Higher, 2012-2016Unemployment Rate, 2012-2016