HDS 3/19/19 AM 0.67 1416 DSW 3/19/19 AM 0.05 843 Ticker Date …€¦ · Technicals-0.06 0.05 0.35 Fundamental 0.14 0.17 0.54 Overall 0.07 0.12 0.37 Average (all days) 0.13 0.25 0.51

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

10:00 Factory Orders 0.3 2/27 -0.5 -0.05

10:00 Durable Goods 0.4 3/13 0.8 0.69

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

10:00 NAHB Housing Index 63 2/19 59 62 3 0.15 Mat. HC

MAR Analyst Meeting

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

ADNT KeyBanc Underwgt Mkt Wgt

DG Barclays Mkt Wgt Overwgt

ELAN Merrill Neutral Buy

OKTA Goldman Neutral Buy

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

D Macquarie Outperf Neutral

FB Needham Buy Hold

HAIR Wlm Blair Outperf Mkt Perf

IR Wells Fargo Outperf Mkt Perf

SWI Goldman Buy Neutral

SYNA Mizuho Buy Neutral

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

GARG Goldman Resumed Buy

I M Stanley Reiterated Mkt Wgt

NKE Telsey Reiterated Outperf

WMC KBW Initiated Mkt Perf

TRUE Goldman Resumed Sell

- Trump - Xi Summit Likely to be Pushed Back to June.

- Chinese Stocks Rally Over 2%; Europe Also Higher.h 0.6 %

h 2.5

i -0.2

h 0.7

Oil 58.58 h $0.1

Gold 1304.1 h $1.2

$/Euro 0.881 i 0.00

$/Yen 111.53 h 0.0

10-Yr 2.60 h 0.01

Japan

China

Germany

UK

Trading Up ($):

WP (7.88), PHAS (4.59), DERM (4.5), AMZN (3.75), OKTA (2.46), NVDA (1.58)

Trading Down ($):

BA (-8.17), SYNA (-7.01), FIS (-3.04), FB (-2.04), DIS (-1.69), NIHD (-1.19)-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2019, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Earnings Reports

Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs.

DSW 3/19/19 AM 0.05 843

HDS 3/19/19 AM 0.67 1416

MIK 3/19/19 AM 1.42 1780

FDX 3/19/19 PM 3.16 17716

SCS 3/19/19 PM 0.26 871

TME 3/19/19 PM 0.56 5252

Estimate

NVDA Investor Day

HUM Investor Day

Conferences & Meetings

Economic Indicators & Events

Dividends & Splits

NGVT Will replace ESL in the S&P 400 effective 3/18.

WLL Will replace NGVT in the S&P 600 effective 3/18.

Index Changes

LRCX 1.10 CINF 0.56

DIN 0.69 TIF 0.55

KSS 0.67 BBY 0.50

STX 0.63

BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

AAPL WSJ questions effectiveness of watch's heart monitor.

BA Barron's says impact of 737 grounding could last years; regulators investigating approvals.

DB Confirms that it is in merger discussions with Commerzbank.

DERM Announced positive Phase 2b results for dermatitis treatment.

GOOGL Denies President Trump's claim that it is working with Chinese military.

HUN Lowered guidance ahead of Goldman Sachs conference.

LL Beat EPS forecasts by 1 cent (0.17 vs 0.16) on weaker revenues; CFO to resign.

MAR Reiterated 2021 guidance ahead of investor meeting.

PFE Trials show that high doses of Xeljanz can increase risk of blood clots in lungs.

SQ Barron's article questions company's strategy of hardware vs software.

SYNA Lowered Q3 guidance citing softness in China; CEO to step down immediately.

TDOC Positive Barron's article highlights company's leadership in 'telehealth'.

WP Will be acquired by FIS in a $43 bln cash and stock deal.

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.10 0.17 0.46

Technicals -0.06 0.05 0.35

Fundamental 0.14 0.17 0.54

Overall 0.07 0.12 0.37

Average (all days) 0.13 0.25 0.51

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

https://www.bespokepremium.com/

Ticker Price

MGM 26.02 -1.48 0.95 56.9

EOG 88.85 -1.76 0.67 58.0

CME 170.14 -1.83 0.61 63.6

FMC 77.24 -1.07 0.60 60.8

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

DISH 32.57 1.27 -0.36 45.0

ALXN 136.09 1.35 -0.34 47.1

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

SYNH 12.8 3 0.5 66.7 1.8 66.7

ORN 9.5 39 -0.9 33.3 -1.5 48.7

TWI 9.4 35 0.2 48.6 1.4 60.0

MKSI 9.0 12 0.7 66.7 0.9 75.0

ASNA -28.0 5 -2.2 20.0 -11.0 20.0

KOPN -25.5 7 -3.3 42.9 3.3 42.9

KIRK -23.4 6 4.9 50.0 6.5 66.7

DPLO -13.6 9 0.8 55.6 3.0 66.7

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OB N

Cons Discret. OB N

Cons Staples OB N

Energy N N

Financials OB N

Health Care OB N

Industrials N N

Materials OB N

Technology OB N

Comm. Svcs OB OB

Utilities OB OB

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise


Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

7.6

47.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks.

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro N OB

$/Yen OB OB

2-Year OB OB

10-Year N N

Gold N N

Silver N OS

Copper OB OB

Crude Oil OB OB

Heating Oil N N

Gasoline OB OB

Natural Gas N N

OS N OB

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread h 4.3 % 2.6 %10-Day A/D Line h 18 -862# of Overbought Stocks h 238 129# of Oversold Stocks i 38 60

P/E Ratio Trailing h 18.57 18.05 Forward h 16.93 16.44

Dividend Yield i 1.95 % 2.00 %

Net Earnings Revisions i -22.5 % 0.0 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield i 390 392Corporate Bonds i 127 129

Current One Week Ago


BespokePremium.com



BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1150

1160

1170

1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

9/20 10/18 11/15 12/13 1/10 2/7 3/7

1150

1160

1170

1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

9/20 10/18 11/15 12/13 1/10 2/7 3/7

50-DMA: 1190

200-DMA: 1190

1183

1187

1191

1195

1199

1203

1207

2/25 2/27 3/1 3/5 3/7 3/11 3/13 3/15

1193

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1175

1195

1215

1235

1255

1275

1295

1315

1335

1355

9/13 10/11 11/8 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

1175

1195

1215

1235

1255

1275

1295

1315

1335

1355

9/13 10/11 11/8 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

1287

1297

1307

1317

1327

1337

2/25 2/27 3/1 3/5 3/7 3/11 3/13 3/15

200-DMA: 1253

50-DMA: 1309

1308

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

9/12 10/10 11/7 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

9/12 10/10 11/7 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

2715

2735

2755

2775

2795

2815

2835

2/25 2/27 3/1 3/5 3/7 3/11 3/13 3/15

200-DMA: 2753

50-DMA: 27052822

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

1250

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

9/12 10/10 11/7 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

200-DMA: 1584

1505

1525

1545

1565

1585

1605

2/25 2/27 3/1 3/5 3/7 3/11 3/13 3/15

50-DMA: 1509

1554

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

6150

6450

6750

7050

7350

7650

7950

8250

9/12 10/10 11/7 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

6100

6400

6700

7000

7300

7600

7900

8200

9/12 10/10 11/7 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

50-DMA: 7286

200-DMA: 7485

7310

7360

7410

7460

7510

7560

7610

7660

7710

7760

2/25 2/27 3/1 3/5 3/7 3/11 3/13 3/15

7689

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

9/13 10/11 11/8 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

41.5

45.5

49.5

53.5

57.5

61.5

65.5

69.5

73.5

77.5

9/13 10/11 11/8 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

200-DMA: 62

54.4

54.9

55.4

55.9

56.4

56.9

57.4

57.9

58.4

58.9

2/25 2/27 3/1 3/5 3/7 3/11 3/13 3/15

50-DMA: 54

58.41


BespokePremium.com


DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

8400

8900

9400

9900

10400

10900

11400

11900

9/12 10/10 11/7 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

8400

8900

9400

9900

10400

10900

11400

11900

9/12 10/10 11/7 12/7 1/8 2/6 3/7

200-DMA: 10539

9950

10050

10150

10250

10350

10450

10550

10650

10750

2/25 2/27 3/1 3/5 3/7 3/11 3/13 3/15

50-DMA: 10100

10310

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

134

136

138

140

142

144

146

148

150

9/18 10/16 11/13 12/12 1/11 2/11 3/12

134

136

138

140

142

144

146

148

150

9/18 10/16 11/13 12/12 1/11 2/11 3/12

200-DMA: 142

144.0

144.5

145.0

145.5

146.0

146.5

147.0

147.5

2/25 2/27 3/1 3/5 3/7 3/11 3/13 3/15

50-DMA: 145

146


For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2019, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Overview: US equity index futures opened the session down last night but a good showing by Asia and

positive headlines from Europe have them indicating a 20 bps rally at the open. UST rates are slightly

higher and the curve is slightly steeper, the dollar is down and within a few basis points of both its 50–

and 200-DMA, and commodities are mixed headed into the US trading day. Economic scorecard

APAC Markets: Chinese equity markets had a brilliant day to start the week, rising 2.85% on no particu-

lar news at all. As shown at right, the CSI 300 large cap index made a fractional new high on a closing

basis for the current rally but perhaps more interestingly saw its 50-DMA move above its 200-DMA;

this was not a “golden

cross” that is triggered

when both of those two are

rising, but is still a sign of

stronger momentum to the

upside. There have been 8

prior instances where the

CSI 300 saw its 50-DMA rise

above its 200-DMA after at

least six months below. On

average, the index was up

18.93% over the next year,

though the skew is huge

with one gain of 141%, an-

other of 42%, and three

declines of 15% or more.

Other APAC markets were higher as well; while none kept up with A-shares, offshore H-shares were up

1.5% and the only decline in regional equities came courtesy of the Thai SET. Local FX was generally up

versus USD, with an 85 bps gain for INR leading the charge out of the weekend.

Europe Markets: The STOXX 600 didn’t get a single report to start the week, and markets are generally

pretty stable. While the STOXX 600 is slightly higher (+18 bps), breadth is somewhat mixed with 7

groups lower on the day and a somewhat lopsided rally in Banks and Basic Resources. Base metals had

a good night but M&A bankers might be the biggest winners as the much-discussed merger between

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank in Germany appears to be headed towards fruition. The German

government supports the tie-up even though it will likely lead to tens of thousands of job losses. By

assets, the bank would be the third-largest in the EU, and well-capitalized, but still face profitability

concerns. For now, it’s a good sign that the all-stock deal has sent the acquirer’s currency up, as DB

sharers traded in Germany are near session highs, +4.8%.

Elsewhere, EURUSD is once again trying to poke its head above its 50-DMA, while baser rates are slight-

ly higher across the Eurozone (peripherals rallying as well), but credit is little-changed for synthetic in-

dices despite a cash bond rally.

Morning Commentary

New High Close In A-Shares (Past Year)

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

3900

4100

50-DMA

200-DMA

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

3900

4100

https://www.bespokepremium.com

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-dev/economic-monitors/eco-global







5

Japan Trade: Two key indicators of activity for the APAC region were released overnight. Japanese

goods trade data was the first, with seasonally-adjusted trade balance for the month of February rising

to 116.1bn JPY versus 86.0bn expected. Exports were down 1.2% YoY, but that compares relatively fa-

vorably with the 8.4% YoY decline reported last month. The really interesting bit, of course, was China.

As shown below, Japanese exports to China fell 14.8% on a seasonally-adjusted basis in the three

months ended January. February data shows a strong rebound of 8.5%. Whether that rebound in Chi-

nese demand is something that can be sustained (probably by ongoing credit stimulus) is the big ques-

tion, but for now this particular indicator of activity is suggesting that the typical January-February sea-

sonal weirdness and a bit of a rough patch for Chinese activity isn’t the end of the world yet.

Singapore Trade: February trade data for Singapore had similarly good news for global activity opti-

mists. While both leading indicators and broad gauges of global trade activity have been in pretty per-

sistent decline of late, we

note that exports for Singa-

pore (both from its domestic

economy, and via broader

measures like re-exports and

container volumes, both of

which are highly sensitive to

global trade activity) have not

suffered all that much. Cer-

tainly, exports are down, and

re-exports are off their peak,

but container through-put for

the biggest Eurasian trade hub

has remained very robust,

something that would be im-

possible if total global trade

was collapsing.

Morning Commentary

The China Problem: Japanese Exports Bounce Back, But How Long & How Far?

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

Japan Goods Exports to China(bn JPY, SA By Bespoke)

-14.8%

+8.5%

Singaporean Data Not Showing Significant Declines In Activity

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25 Singapore Non Oil Re-Exports SA By Bespoke (bn USD)

Singapore Non Oil Domestic Exports SA By Bespoke (bn USD)

Singapore Container Throughput SA By Bespoke (mm)








6

Brexit: With the UK leaving the EU under current circumstances in 11 days, you would think that there

might be more panic. Sterling has generally held the highs it hit last week on news of Brexiteer move-

ment towards a the deal negotiated by PM May, and the general feeling that the EU would accept an

extension. The general thinking is that an extension is very likely, which is both reasonable and creates

significant downside risk, in our view. In Parliament, the most recent iteration of the deal is due to be

voted on Tuesday, but understandably PM May is refusing to table the legislation unless there is a

“strong chance” it will be approved. The problem, of course, is that if the UK isn’t even trying to vote

on the terms the EU has negotiated, extending the deal requires the EU to be okay with indefinite can-

kicking until something changes in the domestic UK political scene. While the EU is basically ground

zero for can-kicking (see: Crisis, Eurozone, 2010-2013), the presumption that the UK can squabble in-

ternally for an indefinite period while the EU politely allows repeated extensions is somewhat hard to

conceive.

In the near-term, any extension is good for cable (GBPUSD) but keep in mind that most of the

“extension news” is already in the

price. Movement by Brexiteer ultras

within May’s Conservative Party (for

instance, members of the European

Research Group) towards support

are positive. On that front, key fig-

ure Jacob Rees-Mogg appeared to

move towards a positive vote, say-

ing today a bad deal is better than

staying in the EU, while May’s for-

mer Foreign Minister Boris Johnson

urged rejection of the May deal in a

column. Another positive would be

movement of Northern Ireland’s

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)

towards May’s deal.

While we think the simplest thing to

do is declare GBP in an uptrend,

buyers will be in a load of pain

should the EU’s support for an ex-

tension wobble. Also keep in mind

that real UK government bond

yields are –2% and near record

lows; the interest rate market re-

mains dour about the outlook for

the UK’s economy in the long term.

Morning Commentary

GBPUSD: Past 5 Years, Weekly

10 Year Real Gilt Yields (%), 1992 - Present

1.17

1.27

1.37

1.47

1.57

1.67

1.77

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6








7

Eurozone Auto Sales:

We didn’t get a

chance to discuss Eu-

rozone auto sales ac-

tivity in detail last

week and think it de-

serves mention to-

day. As we’ve repeat-

edly emphasized, a

surge and then col-

lapse in auto sales

volumes in the mid-

dle of last year thanks

to regulations has

continued to ease. So

far in Q1, demand is

looking the closest to “normal” (we use the first six months of 2018 as our benchmark) it has since the

regulations went into effect (September 2018). As shown in the chart, Eurozone auto sales ran at a

pace of 11.18mm SAAR in February, nearly back to the 11.36mm SAAR pace from 1H ’18. Q1 sales are

therefore up 30.8% annualized versus Q4’s 10.1mm SAAR sales pace. That’s a very strong impulse (and

again, is driven by the exogenous regulatory shock rather than the cyclical health of the Eurozone

economy) that we don’t see discussed often as a significant positive for Eurozone growth early in 2019.

Eurozone Data: As we’ve

discussed in the past, Eu-

ropean nominal data sees

large impacts from energy

prices, so we think it’s

helpful to strip those out.

Based on the data report-

ed today by Eurostat, we

can say European Union

(note: not the same as the

Eurozone) the trade sur-

plus was the second-

weakest since 2012 ex-

cluding petroleum and

petroleum products. That

said, ex-petroleum ex-

ports were up 3% YoY, versus down 3.1% YoY in December, and a 2.1% advance in total exports YoY for

the EU 28.

Morning Commentary

EZ Auto Sales, mm, 2013-Current (SAAR By Bespoke)

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

EZ Auto Sales (SA By Bespoke), 11.18mm SAAR

1H '18 Avg, 11.36mm SAAR

Q3 '18 Avg, 11.61mm SAAR



EU Trade Surpluses Falling, But Still Large Ex Energy

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

EU 28 Trade Balance ExPetroleum/Products(bn EUR, SA ByBespoke)








8

US Markets: Internet retailer and somewhat surprising cryptocurrency play Overstock (OSTK) an-

nounced a 30mm revenue miss versus analysts estimates this morning, losing $1.39/share in Q4 thanks

to weaker gross margins. The stock is trading around $20, versus highs of $90 at the peak of the crypto

bubble. Another historic big decliner, Lumber Liquidators (LL) has a shot at a new all-time low this

morning after reporting 17 cent adjusted EPS but very weak net sales below analysts’ estimates and a

GAAP EPS loss of $1.99 per share. Economic scorecard. Interactive Earnings Calendar.

Morning Commentary

Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart Asset Level Change 5d Chg 3m Chart

S&P 500 2833.00 11.5 151.4 Gold 1304.70 13.8 88.1

Russell 1561.40 9.6 47.0 Silver 15.35 13.7 16.3

VIX Fut 14.90 16.8 -628.9 WTI 58.58 10.3 318.8

TSX 960.00 2.1 35.5 Copper 292.65 70.5 67.1

2 Year 243.97 0.2 -3.5 Nikkei 21584.50 62.3 217.5

5 Year 240.18 0.7 -4.0 CSI 300 3851.75 285.0 326.5

10 Year 259.97 1.3 -4.0 ASX 200 6190.53 24.9 16.7

30 Year 302.38 1.3 -0.3 Stoxx 600 381.59 12.9 217.4

2s10s 15.79 1.1 -0.4 BBG USD 1191.07 -14.6 -64.5

5s30s 62.04 0.5 3.7 EURUSD 1.1358 28.3 100.5

5 Yr BE 188.76 0.2 186.9 USDJPY 111.50 1.8 26.1

10 Yr BE 194.60 0.1 192.7 EM FX 63.52 23.0 68.6

Mar '19 97.38 -0.2 -1.5 CDX IG 57.84 -0.2 -2.1

Jun '19 97.39 -1.0 1.0 iTraxx IG 59.84 -1.0 -3.1

Sep '19 97.42 -0.5 2.5 CDX HY 340.18 -0.5 -10.5

Dec '19 97.41 -0.5 4.0 iTraxx HY 270.20 -0.5 -14.7

Euro

do

llar

s

Cre

dit

Major Asset Class Dashboard

Equ

ity

Futs

Co

mm

od

ity

Trsy

Yie

lds

Int'

l Eq

uit

y

Cu

rve

s/B

E

FX

(bps)(bps)


https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-dev/economic-monitors/eco-global

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-earnings-calendar/

Documents

HDS 3/19/19 AM 0.67 1416 DSW 3/19/19 AM 0.05 843 Ticker Date …€¦ · Technicals-0.06 0.05 0.35 Fundamental 0.14 0.17 0.54 Overall 0.07 0.12 0.37 Average (all days) 0.13 0.25 0.51