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HaysConsolidatedIndependentSchoolDistrict

Quarterly Report1Q19

Economic Conditions – Austin Area (March 2019)

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UnemploymentRate

-0.2%

25,073 new jobsNational rate 1.0%

Job Growth

2.2%

AnnualHome Starts

16,659

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 3.8%Texas 3.8%

Austin MSA 2.7%Hays County 2.8%

224 more homestarts than 1Q18

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Texas Enrollment Trends 2018/19 State EnrollmentTotal Enrollment 5,431,910Total Growth 32,228

78,64478,078

98,27385,773

64,962

77,261

76,085

80,14067,522

59,540

40,555

32,228

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000Enrollment Change

4,671,4934,749,571

4,847,8444,933,617

4,998,5795,075,840

5,151,9255,232,065

5,299,5875,399,682

5,431,910

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000Total State Enrollment

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Region 13 & 20 Enrollment Trends

Hays CISD added 2,670 students between 2013/14 and 2018/19, a

growth rate of 15.5%

Austin New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 1Q19

*Based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff 5

Rank District NameAnnual Starts

Annual Closings VDL Future

1 Leander ISD 2,319 2,188 3,334 12,8622 Pflugerville ISD 1,831 1,602 1,490 10,8783 Georgetown ISD 1,559 1,537 2,938 16,2814 Austin ISD 1,469 1,480 1,450 10,9835 Hays CISD* 1,625 1,425 2,227 49,0286 Round Rock ISD 1,238 1,383 1,058 5,8647 Manor ISD 1,247 1,184 1,209 16,1448 Hutto ISD 1,035 914 1,086 7,3709 Del Valle ISD 768 849 762 34,502

10 Liberty Hill ISD 1,116 815 2,125 11,31811 Lake Travis ISD 636 697 1,848 5,34612 Dripping Springs ISD 605 624 1,328 6,43813 Jarrell ISD 369 304 332 7,71714 San Marcos CISD 360 272 372 8,95115 Bastrop ISD 183 266 1,219 19,62216 Eanes ISD 87 107 105 15417 Elgin ISD 80 76 200 6,06518 Lago Vista ISD 66 54 715 3,53319 Taylor ISD 32 46 217 87120 Lockhart ISD 40 12 55 1,660

New Housing ActivityAnnual Starts and Closings 2010- YTD 2019

• Hays CISD started just over 420 new homes in 1Q19, which is roughly 70 more homes than 1Q18• In 1Q19 the district closed 319 homes which is a 10% increase over the first quarter of 2018

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Starts 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20191Q 302 257 472 387 354 4222Q 293 309 326 458 4913Q 335 456 412 416 3744Q 242 370 187 214 322

Total 1,172 1,392 1,397 1,475 1,541 422

Closings 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20191Q 222 278 404 398 290 3192Q 296 300 359 337 3573Q 286 306 416 439 3304Q 312 379 191 326 340

Total 1,116 1,263 1,370 1,500 1,317 319

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Hays CISD New Home Starts and Closings

Annual Starts Annual Closings

Annual Closing Distribution

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Top 10 Subdivisions - 1Q19 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings

Quarter Closings VDL Future

1 Sunfield 251 56 441 2,9592 Shadow Creek 233 29 10 03 Blanco Vista 180 41 133 9494 Crosswinds- Pfluger 83 20 64 4895 Creekside Village 79 32 9 06 Windy Hill Estates 78 11 77 07 Woodlands Park 72 15 4 1688 Bunton Creek Village 57 21 160 689 Cypress Forest 55 18 74 110

10 White Oak Preserve 47 8 66 51TOTALS 1,135 251 1,038 4,794

Overall Housing DataBy Elementary Attendance Zone

Highest activity in the category

Second highest activity in the category

Third highest activity in the category

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Elementary School Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings U/C Inventory VDL Future

BLANCO VISTA 183 53 180 41 68 127 133 9,149BUDA 57 21 47 8 28 33 66 1,232CAMINO REAL 22 4 14 14 8 8 127 1,078CARPENTER HILL 109 34 75 17 79 104 233 923ELM GROVE 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0FUENTES 90 11 64 28 24 58 253 3,141HEMPHILL 21 18 1 1 15 21 108 12,939KYLE 200 56 91 39 63 129 101 988NEGLEY 90 28 90 23 38 54 262 14,348PFLUGER 257 66 397 60 60 99 154 489SCIENCE HALL 12 6 5 0 9 13 121 789TOBIAS 123 19 117 27 40 77 139 866TOM GREEN 461 122 340 73 199 260 530 3,086

Grand Total 1,625 438 1,425 331 631 983 2,227 49,028

District Housing Overview • Hays CISD has over 600 homes currently under construction

• The district has roughly 49,000 future planned lots

• Of those futures, groundwork is currently underway on approx. 1,600 lots

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Residential Activity

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Sunfield• 4,725 total lots• 2,959 future lots• 1,159 occupied homes• 441 VDL• Approx. 133 homes U/C• 337 homes started in the last year• 251 homes closed in the last year • Prelim plat for phase 4 with 818

lots submitted in January 2019 • $220K-$425K

Harvest Meadows• Future 222 condominium

townhouse units • Prelim plat submitted in

March 2019• No timeline for

groundwork at this time

Phase 4

Residential Activity

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Carpenter Hill• 205 future homes• Commercial sections are

currently U/C• Final plat for (residential)

section 2 was submitted in May 2019

• GW underway throughout property on all 205 lots

• Homes in section 2 should start before the end of 2019Kali Kate

• 75 future homes • Prelim plat submitted

in January 2019• This property will not

start groundwork before the end of 2019

Residential Activity

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Bunton Creek Reserve • 349 total lots • 225 future homes • First residents moved in 1Q19

and approx. 7 homes currently occupied

• 93 VDL• 18 homes U/C• 31 homes started in the last year• $200k-$260K

Highlands at Grist Mill• 232 total lots • 102 future homes • Frist residents moving in by the end

of May 2019; expect 2-8 homes occupied by June 1st

• 108 VDL• 15 homes U/C• 21 homes started in the last year

with 18 started in 1Q19• Expect to close 70-75 homes a year• $200K-$255K

Residential Activity

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Windy Hill• 93 duplex homes• First residents move in by

the end of May 2019• 77 VDL• Approx. 6-10 duplexes U/C• More than 50% of the

duplexes at this property have already sold

• Several owners awaiting completion of their duplex, and will rent properties out

• $360K-$380K

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

• Hays CISD may enroll more than 20,300 students by this year

• 5 year growth = 2,272• Fall 2023/24 enrollment = 22,194• 10 year growth = 5,234• Fall 2028/29 enrollment = 25,156

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Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth%

Growth2014/15 601 1,344 1,425 1,396 1,386 1,408 1,397 1,405 1,358 1,414 1,372 1,307 1,129 1,006 17,9482015/16 626 1,298 1,406 1,481 1,438 1,455 1,468 1,434 1,457 1,402 1,542 1,356 1,186 1,105 18,654 706 3.93%2016/17 637 1,349 1,363 1,446 1,517 1,489 1,505 1,512 1,486 1,475 1,579 1,463 1,249 1,145 19,215 561 3.01%2017/18 681 1,411 1,473 1,417 1,458 1,593 1,568 1,520 1,552 1,520 1,643 1,511 1,311 1,204 19,862 647 3.37%2018/19 632 1,310 1,365 1,405 1,445 1,532 1,661 1,512 1,600 1,608 1,642 1,618 1,317 1,275 19,922 60 0.30%2019/20 632 1,379 1,392 1,415 1,432 1,512 1,595 1,704 1,545 1,620 1,763 1,592 1,459 1,278 20,318 396 1.99%2020/21 632 1,462 1,442 1,441 1,446 1,495 1,584 1,632 1,756 1,583 1,791 1,688 1,463 1,411 20,827 509 2.50%2021/22 632 1,517 1,538 1,493 1,478 1,521 1,560 1,627 1,687 1,797 1,740 1,723 1,533 1,413 21,259 433 2.08%2022/23 632 1,565 1,586 1,588 1,522 1,542 1,578 1,589 1,678 1,715 1,977 1,675 1,587 1,472 21,706 446 2.10%2023/24 632 1,602 1,661 1,641 1,634 1,605 1,607 1,605 1,639 1,712 1,891 1,896 1,543 1,526 22,194 488 2.25%2024/25 632 1,644 1,735 1,709 1,676 1,682 1,654 1,644 1,655 1,713 1,884 1,816 1,749 1,485 22,678 484 2.18%2025/26 632 1,676 1,814 1,764 1,724 1,760 1,752 1,681 1,698 1,739 1,888 1,809 1,666 1,678 23,281 603 2.66%2026/27 632 1,712 1,899 1,800 1,776 1,853 1,832 1,729 1,736 1,808 1,916 1,812 1,665 1,601 23,771 490 2.10%2027/28 632 1,775 1,972 1,891 1,804 1,954 1,924 1,789 1,786 1,830 1,991 1,838 1,667 1,599 24,452 681 2.86%2028/29 632 1,802 2,082 1,962 1,862 2,053 2,033 1,837 1,849 1,827 2,014 1,910 1,691 1,602 25,156 704 2.88%

Ten Year ForecastBy Elementary Campus

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

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HISTORY Fall ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus Capacity 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29BLANCO VISTA ELEMENTARY 800 815 627 635 639 650 677 716 756 807 853 891 930BUDA ELEMENTARY 702 581 603 610 619 646 674 683 694 701 730 763 790CAMINO REAL ELEMENTARY 800 799 763 745 736 736 746 765 765 763 764 766 769CARPENTER HILL ELEMENTARY 800 678 648 617 592 597 612 632 676 718 754 792 831ELM GROVE ELEMENTARY 720 899 880 873 881 844 836 826 829 834 836 857 865FUENTES ELEMENTARY 720 607 628 634 630 644 655 692 729 769 805 832 874GREEN ELEMENTARY 714 757 756 785 865 930 1,000 1,070 1,117 1,155 1,183 1,222 1,278HEMPHILL ELEMENTARY 720 828 274 308 315 323 333 363 400 447 503 563 628KYLE ELEMENTARY 770 712 636 612 615 649 665 700 714 737 753 765 776NEGLEY ELEMENTARY 780 769 807 806 803 840 885 920 981 1,054 1,128 1,215 1,312PFLUGER ELEMENTARY 800 698 707 709 744 781 833 869 868 871 884 901 915SCIENCE HALL ELEMENTARY 720 754 567 533 549 544 544 547 576 609 639 667 699TOBIAS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 720 704 610 614 642 694 692 712 735 756 780 806 832UHLAND ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 900 0 843 875 871 860 860 886 891 900 891 911 926ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTAL 10,666 9,601 9,349 9,356 9,501 9,738 10,012 10,381 10,731 11,121 11,503 11,951 12,425Elementary Absolute Change 295 -252 7 145 237 274 369 350 390 382 448 474Elementary Percent Change 3.17% -2.62% 0.07% 1.55% 2.49% 2.81% 3.69% 3.37% 3.63% 3.43% 3.89% 3.97%

Ten Year ForecastBy Secondary Campus

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

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HISTORY Fall ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus Capacity 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29BARTON MIDDLE SCHOOL 900 683 718 733 773 782 761 753 786 831 835 865 892CHAPA MIDDLE SCHOOL 765 806 753 795 799 832 816 818 825 808 827 851 877DAHLSTROM MIDDLE SCHOOL 855 803 785 796 851 910 885 892 850 852 823 831 841SIMON MIDDLE SCHOOL 765 757 757 720 719 732 739 691 692 707 762 763 756MCCORMICK MIDDLE SCHOOL 900 742 899 980 977 975 912 941 972 1,046 1,130 1,172 1,187WALLACE MIDDLE SCHOOL 765 801 800 837 844 872 861 853 879 866 888 915 952MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 4,950 4,592 4,712 4,861 4,963 5,103 4,974 4,948 5,004 5,110 5,265 5,397 5,505Middle School Absolute Growth 120 120 149 102 140 -129 -26 56 106 155 132 108Middle School Percent Growth 2.68% 2.61% 3.16% 2.10% 2.82% -2.53% -0.52% 1.13% 2.12% 3.03% 2.51% 2.00%LIVE OAK ACADEMY 200 198 202 199 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200HAYS HIGH SCHOOL 2,250 2,905 2,968 2,358 2,164 1,938 2,076 2,181 2,177 2,233 2,252 2,265 2,326JOHNSON HIGH SCHOOL 2,251 0 0 1,152 1,692 2,242 2,390 2,420 2,506 2,496 2,484 2,552 2,590LEHMAN HIGH SCHOOL 2,250 2,566 2,644 2,345 2,260 1,991 2,007 2,017 2,013 2,074 2,020 2,040 2,063HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 6,951 5,669 5,814 6,054 6,316 6,371 6,673 6,818 6,896 7,003 6,956 7,057 7,179High School Absolute Growth 236 145 240 262 56 301 145 78 107 -47 101 122High School Percent Growth 4.34% 2.56% 4.13% 4.32% 0.88% 4.73% 2.18% 1.14% 1.55% -0.67% 1.45% 1.73%ALTERNATIVE IMPACT CENTER 0 0 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47ALTERNATIVE SCHOOL TOTAL 0 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47DISTRICT TOTAL 22,567 19,862 19,922 20,318 20,827 21,259 21,706 22,194 22,678 23,281 23,771 24,452 25,156District Absolute Growth 647 60 396 509 433 446 488 484 603 490 681 704District Percent Growth 3.4% 0.3% 2.0% 2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.1% 2.9% 2.9%

Summary

• Hays County’s unemployment rate is below 3.0%.

• Within HCISD there were over 420 new home starts and 319 new home closings in the first quarter of 2019.

• The Negley and Hemphill elementary zones together contain over 50% of HCISD’s future homes.

• The district is expected to enroll 20,300 students this fall.

• Hays CISD can expect an increase of approximately 2,272 students during the next 5 years for a fall 2023 enrollment of nearly 22,194.

• Ten year growth of nearly 5,234 students for a fall 2028 enrollment of 25,156.

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