HAVE WE FINALLY FOUND THE ELUSIVE HIGGS BOSON

PARTICLE OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION?

DR. Walter Hays

GLOBAL ALLIANCE FOR DISASTER REDUCTION

MY ANSWER (BASED ON 40 YEARS OF GLOBAL

DISASTERS)

Is YES

BACKGROUND

YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

DISASTER RESILIENCE DISASTER RESILIENCE

POLICIES / PRACTICES:•PROTECTION•PREPAREDNESS•EARLY WARNING•EM. RESPONSE•RECOVERY & RECONSTUCT

INTEGRATED GOALSINTEGRATED GOALS

THE HIGGS BOSON PARTICLE

• Creates The Influence Field That Causes People To Form A Critical Mass And Make Cities Disaster Resilient

Creates The Force Field That Causes Matter To Have Mass And Make Things Happen

THE “HIGGS BOSON” PARTICLE IS THE GOD

PARTICLE - - -

----The Particle In The Invisible World That Creates The Force

Field That Causes Matter to Have Mass And Make Things Happen

THE “HIGGS BOSON” PARTICLE OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IS THE PERSON --

---- In The Visible World Who Creates The Influence Field That Causes

People to Form A Critical Mass And Make Disaster Prone Cities Become

Disaster Resilient

QUESTION---

ARE YOU A HIGGS BOSON PERSON FOR DISASTER RISK

REDUCTION?

“YOU ARE”--- IF

• You have become a multi-dimensional

KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATOR developing a city-specific knowledge base needed for disaster resilience

A PARTIAL LIST OF KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATORS

DURING THE 1970’S AND 1980’S

A Focus on Programs for Individual

Natural Hazards

and

Windows of Opportunity

“KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATORS”1970’S AND 1980’S

• GILBERT WHITE• JOANNE NIGG • TED ALGERMISSEN• KARL STEINBRUGGE• FOURNIER D’ABLE

“KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATORS”1970’S AND 1980’S

• HARESH SHAH

• TSUNEO KATAYAMA

• FAROUK TEBBAL

• VIT KARNIK

A PARTIAL LIST OF KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATORS

DURING THE 1990’S

A Focus on The International Decade

For Natural Disaster Reduction

and

All Hazards

“KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATORS”1990’S

• FRANK PRESS

• GEORGE HOUSNER

• 188 NATIONAL COMMITTEES (MEN AND WOMEN PARTICIPANTS IN THE IDNDR)

• UN AGENCY EXPERTS

A PARTIAL LIST OF KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATORS

DURING 2000-2012

A Focus on The International Strategy

For Disaster Reduction

and

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES

“KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATORS”2000’S—2010’S

• UN - ISDR

• GLOBAL RISK FORUM (GRF’s History is too short at present)

• THE G-20– (for the future)

IT IS TIME TO START PLANNING FOR THE DRD

[DISASTER RESILIENCE DIVIDEND]

AUGUST 26, 2012

THE DISASTER RESILIENCE DIVIDEND

The DRD is

HEALTH on a global scale

"Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social

well-beingand not merely the absence of

disease or infirmity“

WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION

GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL SURGES:

A WAY TO CAUSE A PARADIGM SHIFT

FROM DISASTER PRONE TO DISASTER RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL HEALTH

DURING THE 21ST CENTURY

A GLOBAL PLATFORMA GLOBAL PLATFORMA GLOBAL PLATFORMA GLOBAL PLATFORM

- Strategic - Strategic Interactions -Interactions -

LINKED SURGESLINKED SURGESA GLOBAL A GLOBAL RESOURCERESOURCEA GLOBAL A GLOBAL RESOURCERESOURCE

KNOWLEDGE AND KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCEEXPERIENCE

KNOWLEDGE AND KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCEEXPERIENCE

DISASTER DISASTER LABORATORIESLABORATORIES

DISASTER DISASTER LABORATORIESLABORATORIES

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN REGION PARTNERS:

DISASTER RESILIENCE FOR COMMUNITIES

NORTH AMERICAN REGION PARTNERS:

CONTINUING EDUCATION AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

ISLAND NATIONS PARTNERS:

MEDITERRANEAN REGION PARTNERS:

EUROPEAN REGION PARTNERS:

TURNING POINTS FOR CHANGE

TURNING POINTS FOR CHANGE

EDUCATIONAL EDUCATIONAL SURGESSURGES

EDUCATIONAL EDUCATIONAL SURGESSURGES

CAPACITY CAPACITY BUILDINGBUILDING

CAPACITY CAPACITY BUILDINGBUILDING

PRIMERSPRIMERSPRIMERSPRIMERS

MEETINGSMEETINGSMEETINGSMEETINGSASIAN REGION PARTNERS:

SUBSAHARA AFRICA REGION PARTNERS:

NON-DISASTER RESILIENCE

CHARACTERISTICS OF A NON-DISASTER-RESILIENT CITY

• UN—PROTECTED, or

• UN—PREPARED, or

• UN—WARNED, or

• UN--ABLE TO RESPOND, or

• UN—”PEPPER--ED”

UN—PROTECTED

COLLAPSE OF UN BUILDING; PORT AU PRINCE, HAITI: MARCH 10, 2010

COLLAPSED BUILDINGS: BEICHUAN, CHINA; MAY 12, 2008

UN—PREPARED

VARZAGHAN, IRAN: AUGUST 15, 2012

OVER 600 MILLION PEOPLE EXPERIENCE BLACKOUTS:JULY 2012

TRASH FROM THE MARCH 11, 2011 JAPAN TSUNAMI; JULY 2012

FANGSHAN DISTRICT, BEIJING, CHINA: JULY 25, 2012

UN—WARNED

KRYMSK, RUSSIA: FLASH FLOOD; JULY 8, 2012

BANDA ACHE, INDONESIA TSUNAMI: DECEMBER 26, 2004

• 230,000 died mainly as the result of inadequate warning

CYCLONE NARGISH: MYANMAR; MARCH 12, 2009

CYCLONE NARGISH: MYANMAR; MARCH 12, 2009

• 2.4 MILLION PEOPLE WERE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED BECAUSE THE RULING MILITARY JUNTA PREVENTED EARLY WARNING AND DELIVERY OF INTERNATIONAL AID

• 2.4 MILLION PEOPLE WERE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED BECAUSE THE RULING MILITARY JUNTA PREVENTED EARLY WARNING AND DELIVERY OF INTERNATIONAL AID

NEVADA DEL RUIZ, COLOMBIA: 1989

NEVADA DEL RUIZ, COLOMBIA: 1989

• 24,000.DIED IN ARMERO BECAUSE THERE WAS NO OFFICIAL WARNING.

• 24,000.DIED IN ARMERO BECAUSE THERE WAS NO OFFICIAL WARNING.

UN--ABLE TO RESPOND

WENCHUAN, CHINA; EARTHQUAKE LAKE: MAY 31, 2008

WENCHUAN, CHINA: MAY 32, 2008

HURRICANE STAN: OCTOBER 2005

• DEVASTATING MUDSLIDES WERE TRIGGERED BY PROLONGED, HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER HURRICANE STAN: OCTOBER 2005

• WHEN A MUDSLIDE BURIES A TOWN, SEARCH AND RESCUE BECOMES VERY URGENT.

KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE: AUGUST 1999

KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE: AUGUST 1999

• MASS CARE PROVIDES A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE PERIOD.

• MASS CARE PROVIDES A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE PERIOD.

KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE:AUGUST1999

KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE:AUGUST1999

• A “TENT CITY” PROVIDES TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

• A “TENT CITY” PROVIDES TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE FIRE AND POWER OUTAGES: OCT.,1989

LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE FIRE AND POWER OUTAGES: OCT.,1989

• M7.1• 63 DEAD• FIRE IN MARINA

DISTRICT • WIDE SPREAD LOSS

OF POWER • 1 BILLION INSURED

LOSS

• M7.1• 63 DEAD• FIRE IN MARINA

DISTRICT • WIDE SPREAD LOSS

OF POWER • 1 BILLION INSURED

LOSS

SAN FERNANDO, CA EARTHQUAKE: FEB., 1971

SAN FERNANDO, CA EARTHQUAKE: FEB., 1971

• LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING IN LOS ANGELES.

• LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING IN LOS ANGELES.

UN—”PEPPER--ED”

WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE: MAY 12, 2008

WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE: MAY 12, 2008

• 88,000 DEAD• 30,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• 25 MILLION

BUILDINGS DAMAGED• 45 MILLION PEOPLE

AFFECTED

• 88,000 DEAD• 30,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• 25 MILLION

BUILDINGS DAMAGED• 45 MILLION PEOPLE

AFFECTED

MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE: FEB, 1972

MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE: FEB, 1972

• 10,000 DEAD; 20,000 INJURED; 300,000 HOMELESS

• NEAR TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

• POLITICAL CHAOS• CITY RELOCATED

• 10,000 DEAD; 20,000 INJURED; 300,000 HOMELESS

• NEAR TOTAL DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

• POLITICAL CHAOS• CITY RELOCATED

LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE: OCTOBER 17, 1989

LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE: OCTOBER 17, 1989

• M7.1• 63 DEAD• COLLAPSE AND LOSS

OF FUNCTION OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE

• $ 1 BILLION INSURED LOSS

• M7.1• 63 DEAD• COLLAPSE AND LOSS

OF FUNCTION OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE

• $ 1 BILLION INSURED LOSS