HAVE THE YOUNGER POPULATION LOST INTEREST IN CARS?An Interim Report Alan E. Pisarski

The Question is: are younger people less oriented to private vehicles or not? It is argued that the younger population: Is more cell-phone addicted; Is more high density oriented; Is less interested in mobility; Thinks cars are for old folks; Thinks walk, bike, transit are the new thing;

Really? Lots more serious study needed!

In the midst of this research As is typical these days in Washington people find

what they want to find; Lets call it advocacy analysis

Washington is something like ground central for the idea

Washington, Arlington and Alexandria are in the top ten nationally of areas with the highest percentage of persons living alone – above 40%

Joel Kotkin calls such places: Graduate Student Resorts!

In the midst of this research The really tough dichotomy regarding this

question and almost everything else today is: how much is a product of the present

pathetic economy and associated issues; and/or

how much really is a new trend? Time will tell; but here’s some of the key

considerations in separating bubble from trend

Among the key factors Incomes Youth & Parent Unemployment Age and Ethnicity factors High vehicle operating costs

Gas Insurance Maintenance

New State Graduated Licensing

The share of younger population is declining

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202010%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%28% 29%

26% 26% 27%

23%

19%

24%

27%

23%

21% 21%20%

Percent of Population; ages 15-29

The boomers learn to drive

The excitement about one person households is way overstated

There are 30 million persons in one person households;

About 19 million of which are women

only about 1.3 million are under 30 years of age

16-242%

25-303% 31-34

3%

35-6452%

65 Plus40%

Age Distribution in One Person Households

Mostly “little old ladies”

MALE FEMALE 0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

shares by age of one person households

65 Plus35-6431-3425-3016-24

Thousands

Minorities are a Major Share of our Young Population -2011 ACS

At least a third of the population below the age of 35 are minorities

More likely to be low income and to have unemployment in the family Under

5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14

years

15 to 17

years

18 and 19

years

20 to 24

years

25 to 29

years

30 to 34

years

35 to 44

years

45 to 54

years

55 to 64

years

65 to 74

years

75 to 84

years

85 years and over

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

BLACK AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POP-ULATION

Axis Title

White66%

Black11%

Asian3%

Other3%

Hispanic 17%

2009 16-24

OVERALL, BLACK & HISPANIC POPULATIONS HAD BIG GAINS IN AUTO OWNERSHIP THIS DECADE – SOME LOSSES SINCE RECESSION

IN 2000

ALL 10.3%

BLACK 23.8%

HISPAN 17.2%

IN 2009

ALL 8.9%

BLACK 20%

HISPAN 12.4%

(WHT NON-H 6.4%) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 2009 2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

% Households without vehicles trend

All Black Hispanic

Year

Perc

ent

More young people living at home

1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Percent of Young People Living at Home

18-24 Men18-24 Women25-34 Men25-34 Women

Source: US Census TAD-1. Young Adults Living At Home: 1960 to Present

Younger people have “staff” !

16-19 20-24 25-29 All other Non-Drivers0

102030405060708090

100Percent of Non-Drivers who Live with Other Drivers

NHTS analysis FHWA

A key factor affecting young – Graduated Licensing Begun in mid nineties; often goes in 3 phases

Learner stage Intermediate stage Full privilege

Age limits in learner stage Only 1 state does not control length of learner stage - 3 months

minimum 49 states & DC ban night driving in intermediate stage

Minimum age 45 states restrict psgrs 46 require supervised driving

Minimum age for full licensing Driver’s Ed. has been a casualty of school budgetsCOINCIDES WITH IMPROVED SAFETY AND TRAVEL

CHANGES

Not much change in overall licensing

2001 2003 2005 2007 20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 this decade's licensing trend

19 UNDER M 19 UNDER F 20-24 M 20-24 F

% Both sexes equally con-strained

Young women ahead of men

Insurance costs have been rising

insurance rose from $778 in 2000 to $886 in 2006 and to $1,010 in 2010 up 30% in the decade

Adding a male under 25 can raise family car insurance 2x

2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

40.21%37.04%

32.02%34.70% 33.71%

26.18% 27.22%

31.56%

25.93%27.77%

8.09% 8.43% 8.50% 9.57% 10.25%10.41%12.23% 12.94% 14.04% 13.16%

strange stability in spending over 5 turbulent years

veh purch gas Maintenance and repairs Vehicle insurancepe

rcen

t of

tra

nspo

rtat

ion

spen

ding

THE BIG DRIVER: JOBS

1990 1995 2001 20090%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

62% 66%70%

56%

82% 82% 85%

72%

Percent Workers within Age Group

16-2425-2955-6465+

Perc

ent

Wor

kers

NHTS FHWA

YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

Unemploy- ment in 2001 was about half of present

Nov 2012

16-19 24%

Blk 41.3%

20-24 14.6%

Blk 25.2%

Dates ALL 16-19

White 16-19

Black 16-19

HISP 16-19

May 2012 24.6 22.0 36.5 30.4

April 2012

24.9 22.1 38.2 26.1

April 2009

20.9 18.8 33.5 26.5

May 2009 23.6 21.1 40.1 31.0May 2001 12.6 11.2 23.4 6.1 all

HispApril 2001

13.3 11.5 24.4 6.1 all Hisp

Re Unemployment PEW CENTER STUDY Feb 2010

Pew Center – 37% of young respondents either out of work or underemployed. Highest in 3 decades of surveying.

High percentages of college grads are unemployed or under-employed in jobs that don’t require their degrees.

W. Post Nov 2012 (of AU law grads only 1/3 w jobs in field; 80% have loans av $150k)

The African-American Population

Black 2001 Black 20090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Worker Trend

16-24 25-30 31-34

Dramatic declines in workers

Mixed picture on Licensing

Black 2001 Black 20090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Driver License Trend

16-24 25-30 31-34

A similar picture among Hispanics

Sharp declines in workers Again mixed

hisp 01 Hisp 090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Worker Trend

16-24 25-30 31-34

Hisp 2001 Hisp 20090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Driver License Trend

16-24 25-30 31-34

White Non-Hisp. also saw declines

Better situation - Pattern same More decline?

White 2001 White 20090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Worker Trend

16-24 25-30 31-34

White 2001 White 20090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Driver License Trend

16-24 25-30 31-34

Transit shares rose among minorities – are they the ones most likely to lose car access? LIFO?

2001 20090.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Transit Share of Younger Pop

blk 16-24blk 25-30blk 31-34hsp 16-24hsp 25-30hsp 31-34wht 16-24wht 25-30wht 31-34

Axis Title

A little closer look- all ages grew Big jump in 25-30 group Less so here

2001 20090.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Transit Share of Travel by Younger Pop

blk 16-24 blk 25-30 blk 31-34

Axis Title

2001 20090.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

Transit Share of Travel by Younger Pop

hsp 16-24 hsp 25-30 hsp 31-34

Axis Title

Miles driven are down far more among non-workers of either sex

Male non-workers down 27% Male Workers down 14%Females 14%08%------------------------------25-30 age groups did a little better Male 22%/12%Female 11%/07%

NHTS FHWA

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Annual Miles by Worker Status 16-24

MALE WORKER 16-24 MALE NON-WORKER 16-24FEMALE WORKER FEMALE NON-WORKER

Axis Title

Axis Title

VMT trend is not just weak economy or gas prices- it’s a long term demographic trend

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's

perc

ent c

hang

e

ANNUAL VMT GROWTH RATE BY DECADE

TEST: PICK OUT THE YOUNG! THE CHOICES ARE: under 16; 16-20; 21-35; 36-65; over 65

1983 1990 1995 2001 20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

PSGR MILES PER DAY BY AGE GROUP

DID ANYONE GET IT RIGHT?

1983 1990 1995 2001 20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

16.220.1

25 24.5 25.322.2

34.436.4 38.1

29.531.1

44.3 46 45.6

37.7

PSGR MILES PER DAY BY AGE GROUP

Under 16 16 to 20 21 to 35 36 to 65 Over 65

Transportation is more important to the young in terms of spending

Both under 25’s and 25-34 group spend more on transportation as share of total expenditures and as share of total income

CEX

All consumer units

Under 25 years

25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65-74 years

17%18% 18%

17% 16% 17%16%

13%

20%

15%

13% 12% 12%13%

TRANSPORTATION SPENDING BY AGE GROUP - 2011

trans share of expenditurestrans share of income

They are first in transportation spending

% of Spending Under 25 years

25-34 years

All consumers

Note

Transportation 18.3% 18.4%

16.7% All others under 17%

Also lead in spending per vehicle

And on other good stuff % of Spending Under

25 years

25-34 years

All consumers

Note

Transportation 18.3% 18.4%

16.7% All others under 17%

Also lead in spending per vehicleFood away from home

6.6% 5.8% 5.3% 1st and 2nd

Alcoholic beverages

1.4% 1.1% .92% All others under 1%

Lead in spending per vehicle

All consumer units

Under 25 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65 years and older

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1.9

1.1 1.72.0

2.3 2.1

1.6

spending on transportation per vehicle owned

number of vehicles

Transit is more important to young than other age groups but still minor overall All consumer units spend less than 1% of their transportation spending on transit

Under 25’s spend almost 2%; they spend 3 times more on air travel than on transit All

con-sumer units

Under 25 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

65 years and older

75 years and older

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

75.09

103.2997.45

72.67

97.53

79.51

25.76 26.41

Annual Spending on Transit 2011

dolla

rs

Decline in hh trips 2001-2009

If we think of trips as mandatory or discretionary then middle income hh would have most cost pressure and most discretionary travel to cut

ALL

< $10,0

00

$10 to

$20,0

00

$20 to

$30,0

00

$30 to

$40,0

00

$40 to

$50,0

00

$50 to

$60,0

00

$60 to

$70,0

00

$70 to

$80,0

00

$80,00

0+

Unrepo

rted

-16.00%

-14.00%

-12.00%

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

DECLINE IN HH PERSON TRIPS BY INCOME

% c

hang

e

Some concluding thoughts: Yes they love their cell phones, texting and cafés Yes they spend lots of time on games Yes they love the environment Some of them love the Graduate Student Resorts But the economy seems to be a perfectly adequate

explanation of declining use of autos recently, abetted by some of the other costs exacted on the young

– and we never even mentioned college loans!(AU lawyer grads 80% have loans av 150k 1/3 w jobs in field)

We need to give it time --- and to produce more un-biased data collection and analysis instead of advocacy

analysis A new study by AAA Safety Foundation will be out soon

that will help

And MANY thanks to:Adella SantosSusan LissNancy McGuckinElaine Murakami who helped greatly with the data sets from the National Household Travel Survey

Alan E. Pisarski alanpisarski.com

TIME WILL TELL -- Thank You !

Get shares of pop hisp black 01A third of age group is minority pop

White66%

Black11%

Asian3%

Other3%

Hispanic 17%

2009 Race and Ethnicity by age group 16-24