Harald Sverdrup1, Anna Hulda Olafsdottir1, Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir2, Deniz Koca3, 1Industrial Engineering, University of Iceand, Reykjavik, Iceland, 2Earth Science, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland

3Center for Ecology and Climate, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

STEPS ON THE WAYSTANDING ON THE SHOULDERS OF OTHERS

• 1961-1971; World1-World2; Forrester team, MIT; Industrial dynamics, urban dynamics, world dynamics, the first pioneering basic concept for how a World model may be put together. The model was simplified and aggregated to a high level because of computational constraints of the computers available at the time (Forrester 1961, 1969, 1971) (Economy-oriented).

• 1972-2004; World3; Meadows team, MIT; World dynamics and limits to growth. The model was more elaborate than World2, significantly better parameterized and described in a book “Dynamics of Growth in a Final World” (Meadows et al., 1972, 1974). The model had significant simplifications because of computational constraints of the computers available at the time (Resources-, environment- and economy-oriented).

• 2011-2018; WORLD4 - WORLD5 - WORLD6; Sverdrup team, University of Lund (LTH) and University of Iceland (HI). WORLD6 has reality-based market mechanisms and simulates commodity-, product- and resource price dynamics internally. WORLD6 handles the global economic and financial development, and captures economic cycles of growth, stagnation, and decline. The economy is limited by natural, physical and social capacities. The modules are linked inside so that different resource and policy aspects can be addressed. The model is developed in the STELLA System Dynamics software (Sverdrup et al., 2013, 2018, Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir 2014, Lorenz et al., 2017). WORLD6 is a new development and has no parts included from the earlier models mentioned (Nature-, resources-, environment-, ecosystems-, population-, society-, politics-, governance-, and economy-oriented)

THE WORLD6 MODEL HAS BEEN A LONG JOURNEY, STARTINGIN 2007, INVOLVING SEVERAL DEVELOPMENT TEAMS

• The Gold project (2007 - The global trade with precious metals; Metals modelling - gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium; Norway and Sweden)

• EU Converge project (2010 - Population, phosphorus and sustainable food production; Britain, Iceland, Sweden, Hungary)

• The Real Change Project (2008 -Tranforming society to sustainability through systemic leadership; Sweden)

• The German SIMRESS project (2013-2017 - Sustainable resource use and the challenges of the energiewende. Germany, Sweden, Iceland)

• The EU Valumics project (2017-2021 - Sustainable food supply, value and decision chains: Iceland, Ireland, Italy, CzechRepublic, Finland)

WORLD6 OVERVIEW

2018

VERSION6.302

WORLD6 ECONOMIC

MODULE

WORLD6 MODEL AS A STELLA ARCHITECT DIAGRAM

THE FEEDBACK SYSTEM OFPRODUCTION, SUPPLY, DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION

THE PRICE IS SIMUATED DYNAMICALLY, USING SYSTEMICCAUSALITIES DEPENDING ON THE KIND OF MARKET

Marketdynamics

Biasedmarket

Oligarchicmarket

Command andcontrol

WORLD6 BASE-LINE RESULTS; LIFE AND DEATH

Basic run population Phosphorus rock supply

DEMAND, SUPPLY, MARKET PRICES AND REALITYTHE PRICE MODEL WORKS IN TESTS

Market prices for; • Energy: oil, coal, natural gas, uranium, thorium,

solar PV, wind, hydropower, geothermal, biofuels• Metals: copper, nickel, tantalum, silver,

molybdenum, cobalt, zinc, lead, gold, platinum, palladium, aluminium, indium, tellurium, antimony, bismuth, lithium, germanium, rare, earths, wolfram, tin, niobium, rhenium, tin, antimony, iron, manganese, chromium, nickel, stainless steel

• Materials: Cement, gravel, sand, cut stone, roundwood, sawn wood, paper, plastics,

• Fertilizer: Phosphorus rock• Food: grain, coffee, salmon, beef, maize, milk,

butter

SUPPLY OF KEY ELEMENTS MAY BECOMEVERY TIGHT

RESOURCE QUALITY IS CONSISTENTLY DECLINING FOR ALL RESOURCES

Iron, Manganese, Chromium, Nickel Copper, Zinc, Lead

COPPER – TAKING STOCK OF THE SITUATION

POPULATION SIZE MATTERS FOR SUSTAINABILITY

Population scenarios Copper supply per person per year

PRICES, AMOUNTS PRODUCED AND MANUFACTURED AND ACTIVITY GIVES GDP

HARD RESOURCE SCARCITY LIMITS PHOTOVOLTAICSNECESSITYTO COMBINE ALL TECHNOLOGIES

Ge, Ga, CdTe, SiAg

Fossil fuels (Oil, gas, coal, peat, uranium, thorium); • Source of energy is unsustainable

and resource stocks aredeclining

• Resources use for extraction aresustainable

Technology-based energy(Photovoltaic, wind); • Source of energy is sustainable• Resources use for extraction

are partly unsustainable

Renewable energy (Hydropower, geothermal, some biofuels); • Source of energy is sustainable• Resources use for extraction is

sustainable• Conditioned on sustainable extraction

levels

FROM BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TO MAKING THE «MAX 2O UP» GOAL

Energy production Business as usual sea level rise

Business as usual

WORLD6 CC impact

UN business as usual impact

90% reduction of all fossil fuel use 2020-2060

Energy production Energy supply per person Meet Max 2o increase goal

Energy supply per person

AS RESOURCE QUALITY DECLINE, COST AND EFFORTGO UP IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN CONSUMPTION

The long perspective from WORLD6 - GDP:Business-as-usual Global

Energiwende

Source Harald Sverdrup, WORLD6, 2018

WHAT ARE THE POLICY INTERVENTION POSSIBILITIES FOR METALS AND MATERIALS?

• Efficiency

• Manufacturing use efficiency

• Recycling, losses and reuse

• Recycling materials from use and waste

• Reuse and retrofitting existing items

• Limit irreversible losses

• Delay times in society

• Longer use for required installations

• Efficiency of recycling of redundant infrastructures and consumables

• Consumption

• Less consumption overall

• Better consumption utility efficiency

• Less wasteful consumption

• Behavioural patterns, social norms and prioritizations change

• Governance and management

• Price interventions, taxations, limits

• Promotions, education, public insights

• System optimization

INSI

GH

TS • Scarcity

• All material resources will get into soft scarcity. Many are already there. Some key materials may get into hard physical scarcity.

• All fossil fuels have a quantifiable end date.

• Substitution • has significant limitations, no substitute for phosphorus exists

• Resource shortages • May cause economic crisis. • Economic crisis may cause risk for social stresses and problems for

governance. • The economic system may get problems before the physical systems.

• Business-as-usual is the most dangerous policy

• Business-as-un-usual has large possibilities for change of trajectory

………….AND THE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES, NEXT STEPS TOWARDS WELL BEING

Policies suggested Energy Resources Social Works?

1. Reduce man-made greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible – Global Energie-wende

Can be done withbetter energy

efficiency

Needs a lot ofspecialty materials

Depends on beingsocially sustainable Yes

2. Help poor nations grow faster – by rapid industrialisation similar to Japan, Korea and China

Challenging energysupply, challenging

pollution risks

High risk for hard scarcity on keytechnological

materials

Limited by corruption and

poor governance

Difficult

3. Reduce unemployment and inequity through more jobs

Can be done in Energiewende

Increases demand ofkey supplies

Social changestresses Yes

4. Further slow population growth – through positive incentives

Decline reduceconsumption

Decline reduceconsumption

Needs global attitude change

Yes

5. UN high population scenarioEnergiewende

becomes far more challenging

Risk that resourcescarcity strikes

Economic crisis and disruptions

Social stresses

Probablynot

We suggested some suggested future policies,We ran WORLD6 to test them..

CO

NC

LUSI

ON

S• A systemic approach is a condition for resolving the challenges.

• Narrow sectorial appoaches are neither systemic, nor sufficient, it is not about adjusting the parameters of the present system, feedbacks co across sectors

• The circular society is systemic in nature and must be designed as such. When society is circular, thatcreates the circular economy

• Goal conflicts will demand to be solved at a systemic level

• Systemic changes need to be multi-sectorial, causally linked and pervasive• Energie-wende is linked to a Resource-wende, that can solve very many problems• Both are about rearranging the basic structure of the systems and resetting parameters• It involves all fundamental systems; industrial, economic and social dynamics• It may imply transformative changes to existing society and existing power-structures• Unresolvable goal conflicts will lead to difficult choices

• Transformative changes take time, • Plan with at least 20 years from start to full implementations (Ref; LRTAP protocol, IPCC progress).

Starting is needed at once (2020+20 = 2040).• Must engage al arenas: Science, Communication, Political

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Burefjell