© OECD/IEA 2017 © OECD/IEA 2017

Hannah Daly Energy Analyst

World Energy Outlook, IEA

Energy Express Seminar University of Queensland, May 23rd 2018

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Context

The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals recognise energy access as the “golden thread” that weaves together human development, economic growth & sustainability

This report finds that today, 1.1 billion people lack access to electricity & 2.8 billion people do not have access to clean cooking

Women without access bear the burden, spending over 5 hours each day gathering wood & cooking on polluting stoves, linked to 2.8 million premature deaths each year

The declining costs of renewables and digital technologies are transforming the electricity access landscape

But is this new political momentum & technology progress enough to bring universal access to modern energy?

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Million people

200

400

600

2000 2005 2010 2016

Progress in electricity access is seen in all world regions

Population without electricity access

Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030, but – despite recent progress – efforts in sub-Saharan Africa need to redouble

Sub-Saharan Africa

India Other Asia

2020 2025 2030

India Other Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Million

200

400

600

2000 2005 2010 2016

Sub-Saharan Africa

India Other Asia

2020 2025 2030

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India charges ahead on universal access to electricity

Rural & urban population with & without electricity

Thanks to strong policy support, half a billion people have gained access in India since 2000, mostly via grid connections and coal

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000-2016

Mill

ion

peo

ple

/yea

r DecentralisedRenewables

Renewables

Other

Gas

Coal

Number of people gaining access each year

200

400

600

800

1 000

Mill

ion

peo

ple

Without access

With access

Without access

With access

2000 2016

Rural population:

Urban population:

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Achieving access for all by 2030

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A shift in the electricity access paradigm

Population gaining access by source

Declining cost of renewables and innovative off-grid business models are transforming the way access is delivered, especially in rural areas

Fossil fuels 39%

2017-2030

Coal 16%

Gas 9%

Other 14%

2000-2016

Renewables 30%

Coal 45%

Gas 19%

Other, 7%

Renewables 61%

Renewables 30%

Grid 27%

Renewables 61%

Decentralised 38%

Grid 23%

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An IEA strategy to universal electricity access

On-Grid

Mini-Grid

Off-Grid

Existing grid

Grid extension for 150 million additional people, with hydro accounting for the lion’s share

Decentralised solutions, mainly solar PV, for the remaining 450 million people in rural areas

An additional $26 billion per year is needed in electricity generation and grids

In 2030, 90% of those without access in sub-Saharan Africa are in rural areas; electricity for all needs an acceleration in the deployment of decentralised systems

Least-cost solution for delivering universal electricity access in the Energy for All Case, 2030

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Flexible & pragmatic electrification strategies are needed

Papua, Indonesia

The best electrification strategy depends on geography, energy demand, population density, and technology costs

East Java, Indonesia

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The deployment of a range of clean fuels and technologies can lower premature deaths related to household air pollution from 2.5 to 0.7 million in 2030

Today 2030

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000 Million people

Global population without access to clean cooking

Clean cooking for all: what will it take?

90%

10%

Clean fuels and technologies used for cooking in developing countries in the

Energy for All Case, 2030

Biomass (improved)

16%

LPG 30% Gas

35%

Electricity 17%

Other, 2%

2000 Asia

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Realising energy for all won’t cost the earth

Additional impact of the Energy for All Case relative to the Central Scenario, 2030

The benefits of achieving universal energy access by 2030 far outweigh the costs

0% Net increase in greenhouse-gas emissions

1.8 Million deaths avoided annually

2 Months of work saved annually per woman

1.9% Increase in global energy investment

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Conclusions

Achieving energy for all is essential for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially for improving livelihoods, health, gender equality and education

Policy efforts are key to the attainment of universal electricity access

Policy should enable a wide-range of fit-for-purpose solutions

Enabling policies for off-grid sector can opening new rural electrification opportunities

Energy efficiency should be at the heart of electrification strategies

Providing modern energy for productive uses is essential to meet all SDGs

Universal clean cooking access won’t be achieved unless it is elevated on the political agenda

Energy access and climate goals are not in conflict

The IEA will continue to lead in providing data, analysis and policy guidance to support governments & the international community to achieve SDG 7

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Explore the data behind the Energy Access Outlook-2017

Download the free report and country-by-country database covering >140 countries:

www.iea.org/energyaccess & www.iea.org/sdg

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10%

20%

30%

40%

2000 2010 2020 2030

Renewable energy share of TFC

incl. traditional use of biomass

Achieving SDG 7 in Developing Asia

The New Policies Scenario sees substantial progress in all SDG 7 targets, but universal access to clean cooking remains elusive

SDG 7.1: Share of population with modern energy access

SDG 7.2: Renewable energy share in final energy consumption

SDG 7.3: Energy intensity (toe/$1000 GDP (MER))

2016

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

2000 2010 2020 2030

Energy intensity (toe/$1000 GDP)Target

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030

Clean cooking access

Electricity access