Jeffrey Hall, Intelligence Communications 1 February 2015 Popular Support For Marine LePen Highly Likely To Increase In Advance Of 2017 French Presidential Election With Likely Consequences For Immigration And Assimilation Policies Executive Summary: It is highly likely that popular support for National Front President Marine LePen will continue to increase over the next 12 to 24 months before the 2017 French presidential election as the effects of a troubled economy and the Paris terror attacks combine to weigh heavily on the minds of prospective voters. Further, in the event that LePen wins, it is likely that the French government will enact substantive immigration reforms consistent with the ultra-conservative, nationalist political ideology of the National Front by limiting immigration from the Middle East and requiring those accepted to assimilate into French culture resulting in enhanced internal security and stability.

Discussion:

The French political system is inherently complex. As a multi-party legislative system, power sharing is common as no one singular party exerts majority control.1 Political parties are categorized as liberal, centrist, or conservative and voting coalitions often form resulting in the consolidation of power within one of those contexts—most typically liberal-centrist. As recently as 2012, the more liberal, socialist parties controlled all three of the elected arms of government: the Presidency, the National Assembly, and the Senate.2

France’s socialist leanings have resulted in the adoption of some of the most lax immigration policies in Western Europe. Current estimates place the French Muslim population from three to six million.3 Open immigration policies are consistent with socialist ideologies that mandate acceptance of those wanting to leave capitalist nations due to socioeconomic pressures created by class stratification.

France historically required immigrants to assimilate into French culture by adhering to cultural norms, mores, and traditions.4 This changed in the early 1980’s when France, in response to immigrants refusing to assimilate or return to their native countries, abandoned its policy of assimilation in favor of integration that allowed and even encouraged immigrants to maintain their distinct cultural identities.5

French integration policies fostered conditions conducive to Islamic radicalization as those unwilling to assimilate into French culture suffered from high unemployment, poor living conditions, and limited social mobility. The consequences were disastrous: the Paris Metro and RER attacks in 1995 that killed eight and wounded

80, the Toulouse and Montauban attacks in 2012 that killed seven and injured 5, and the Charlie Hebdo and Paris market attacks in 2015 that killed 17 and injured 11.6 7 8

Historically, terror attacks have repeatedly failed to motivate French voters to support candidates advocating immigration reform to the extent required to secure political victory. Jean Le Pen of the National Front received only 15% of the vote in the 1995 presidential election despite the Paris Metro and RER attacks.9 Similarly, Marine Le Pen of the National Front received only 17% of the vote in the 2012 presidential election despite the Toulouse and Montauban attacks.10

Despite the fact that the National Front has been unsuccessful in its efforts to win a French presidential election, electoral return data clearly indicates popular support for it has increased year-over-year with 2012 yielding its best performance at 6,421,426 votes equating to 17.9% of the vote.11 Further, during the 2014 parliamentary elections the National Front won two seats in the Senate (their first victories) while the coalition of socialist parties simultaneously lost control of both the National Assembly and the Senate to the centrist-conservative coalition.12 This marked shift in political power is attributed to the dysfunction in the French economy and the psychological effects of acts of terror on French voters.13

This rise in popular support for the National Front and other right-leaning French political parties comes at the expense of current French President Francois Hollande whose administration has suffered the beleaguering effects of a troubled economy along with an array of accompanying problems: high unemployment, rising crime rates, and social discontent—each of which have been definitively linked to radicalization in Muslim youth. With an approval rate of 26%, he is categorically the most unpopular president in the history of France.14

Another potential French presidential candidate in 2017, Nicolas Sarkozy, is equally politically weak following his arrest in 2012 for alleged corruption tied to his presidency.15 Sarkozy was defeated in the 2012 presidential election by Francois Hollande and faces an uphill battle as the election nears with the French electorate historically having very little tolerance for political corruption. While Sarkozy maintains his innocence, it is unlikely that the pending criminal charges will be disposed of before the presidential election in 2017 making the likelihood of victory remote.

The combined weaknesses of Hollande and Sarkozy set the stage for LePen to win the 2017 French presidential election. Further, if the centrist-conservative coalition

President Francois Hollande

Nicolas Sarkozy

maintains control of parliament, it would pave the way for the ultra-conservative, nationalistic LePen to institute sweeping immigration reforms that would severely restrict immigration from the Middle East while mandating compulsory assimilation.

The potential consequences of a LePen victory in 2017 are not necessarily limited to immigration reforms, however, as the power of the French presidency is unrivalled in Western Europe. The French president appoints the prime minister, directs the military, appoints the UN ambassador, and has the authority to dissolve parliament. In short, the French president is the most powerful politician in Western Europe.16

A LePen-appointed UN ambassador would have immediate ramifications for UN Security Council activities with any votes cast on resolutions related to terrorism most certainly adhering to the National Front’s ultra-conservative, nationalistic political ideology. This would represent a marked shift from the sheepish approach of Hollande’s current UN ambassador who has expressed a reluctance to cast votes aligned with the US.

COMMENT:

A LePen victory in 2017 and its accompanying impact on French immigration and assimilation policies will have profound effects not only on the internal security, but also abroad as well as terror groups currently targeting France for training, financing, and acts of terror are forced to reconsider regional strategies for meeting their objectives in Western Europe.

ANALYTIC CONFIDENCE:

Analytic confidence for this assessment is high. Sources were corroborated, and analytic confidence source reliability ranged from high to very high. The analyst worked alone and has a high level of subject expertise. Subject complexity is high and the timeframe to complete the assignment was adequate.

For additional information, please contact the analyst:

Jeffrey Hall Phone: 313-495-6228 Email: jhall90@lakers.mercyhurst.edu

ENDNOTES

1. http://www.rogerdarlington.me.uk/Frenchpoliticalsystem.html (Reliability: High; Accessed January, 2015)

2. http://www.rogerdarlington.me.uk/Frenchpoliticalsystem.html (Reliability: High; Accessed January, 2015)

3. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/fr.html#People (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

4. http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/french-government-revives-assimilation-policy (Reliability: High; Accessed January, 2015)

5. http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/french-government-revives-assimilation-policy (Reliability: High; Accessed January, 2015)

6. http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD/9510/paris_bomb/10-17/ (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

7. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-17426313 (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

8. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30708237 (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

9. http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/586598?sid=21105074899881&uid=70&uid=4&uid=3739256&uid=3739728&uid=2129&uid=2 (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

10. http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/may/07/france-election-results-list (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

11. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/28/front-national-wins-seats-french-senate-first-time (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

12. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/28/front-national-wins-seats-french-senate-first-time (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

13. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/28/front-national-wins-seats-french-senate-first-time (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

14. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/29/francois-hollande-most-unpopular-president (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

15. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28122473 (Reliability: Very High; Accessed January, 2015)

16. http://www.rogerdarlington.me.uk/Frenchpoliticalsystem.html (Reliability: High; Accessed January, 2015)