November 17, 2014 1 Gold Wave Trader

Market Outlook November 17, 2014 Publisher, Jim Curry

Since the prior report from Thursday, Gold saw a correction low of 1146.00, from there giving way to a sharp rally into late-day Friday - with the metal running all the way up to a peak of 1192.90. With that, the upward phase of the 10-day cycle has to be back in force, and the probabilities also favor the upward phase of the larger 34-day wave to also be in progress. As noted in the prior outlook, any reversal back below the 1151.50 figure for Gold, if seen, would favor the downward phase of the 10-day cycle to be back in force. That was seen in the overnight session on Friday. Having said that, the sharp reversal higher and the subsequent

November 17, 2014 2 Gold Wave Trader

break back above the prior 10-day top of 1179.00 now favors the upward phase of this cycle to be back in progress. In terms of price, this is not too telling, at least in regards to this 10-day wave, though it does offer up some information in regards to the larger 34-day component. With the 10-day cycle reversing to take out its prior peak, the inference is that the upward phase of the larger 34-day cycle is in fact in progress. In terms of price, that should put the 34-day moving average (chart, above) as the next upside magnet to price. In terms of time, the normal low-end rallies with this cycle when forming a lower-low have taken around 10 trading days or more before topping, thus implying strength into November 21-24 or later. With the above said and noted, the minor cycle low that was projected for the November 18th (plus or minus a day) timeframe looks to have been made on the early side on Friday, and with that any new weakness that might be seen into this date should be favored to hold at or above Fridays 1146.00 bottom. If correct, a continued rally should be seen into the next projected

November 17, 2014 3 Gold Wave Trader

minor cycle top, which is due around the November 24th date which is also plus or minus a day in either direction. Note how this tends to line up with the low-end statistical assumptions in regards to the 34-day time cycle. Stepping back slightly, if the current strength is able to hold up into the November 24th date, plus or minus, then the next projected minor cycle bottom would be due around the early-December period, to be followed by strength again into what is looking to be the early-January timeframe of next year. The biggest question is whether our larger low is in place at the 1130.40 figure. For the bigger picture, as noted in past outlooks the next larger bottom has been expected to come from the 154-day cycle. Right now, it is too early to confirm a low in place with this component, though as noted many times in past weeks any bottom made in the current timeframe had the potential to trough the same. If additional strength is seen into November 24th, and if the next minor cycle bottom (i.e., early-December) is able to remain above the 1130.40

November 17, 2014 4 Gold Wave Trader

figure then the probabilities will strongly favor this 154-day cycle to have bottomed. Going a bit further with the above, there are a clear 5 (Elliott) waves down from the July peak (chart, above), which supports the idea of a 154-day cycle bottom already in place, though this has yet to actually be confirmed with the cyclic information. Having said that, if the upward phase of this wave were to be back in force, then, in terms of Elliott-wave, a rally back to or above the prior wave 4 would be a low-end pattern expectation, with that wave 4 seen as the 1255.60 swing top. Adding to the notes above, in looking at the information from the time cycles on the metal, the normal low-end rallies with the 154-day wave have been around 12.7% off the bottom, while the average has actually been closer to the 17-20% range. In other words, if the 1130.40 swing bottom were to end up as the low for this component, then taking the lowest percentage would suggest a move back to the 1274 figure or better on the next upward phase of this cycle.

November 17, 2014 5 Gold Wave Trader

For now, the above is speculation at this point, though we are in the bullish seasonal period for Gold (chart, above); there are also other technical factors that also support a larger percentage rally. Even said, for the stepped-back view the current assumption is that any larger rally phase for the metal coming as the result of the 154-day wave will, ultimately, end up as a countertrend affair, meaning it should remain at or below the July, 2014 peak of 1349.30. For the bigger picture, if Gold does remain below the 1349.30 figure into what is looking to be January of next year (i.e., when another 154-day peak would be due), then the natural assumption is that lower lows will follow into April or May of next year, where another bottom with this component would be projected to materialize. In terms of price, that decline is likely to be in the range of 15-20% off the top, similar to the action seen on the most recent downward phase of this cycle. Next report sent Tuesday evening, between 9-10 pm EST Current open positions: 65% Long GLD @121.51 (avg price)

Jim Curry The Gold Wave Trader & Forecast

Email: mailto:goldwavetrader@gmail.com Secondary Email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com

November 17, 2014 6 Gold Wave Trader

Website: goldwavetrader.com On Twitter: @goldwavetrader

Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinions are highly probable and as you follow them for some time you can gain confidence in them. The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in risk avoidance. Not responsible for errors or omissions. Copyright 2014, Jim Curry. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form whatsoever, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any informational storage or retrieval system without express written, dated and signed permission from Jim Curry.