Gulf StatesChristina Durano, Alex Lasky, Amera Ratliff,

and Gabe Steinmeyer

Executive Summary• Saudi Arabia– Saudi Arabian Police Shot Shia Man during Protest

• Qatar– Intensified Qatari Involvement in Syrian Conflict

• Bahrain– Greater Military Alliances to Prevent Iranian Interference

• United Arab Emirates - Greater Military Alliances to Defend Against Iranian Threat

Saudi Arabia• Saudi police shot dead a Shia protester bringing the death count

to 12– 18-year-old Ali al-Marar and injuring six others

• Occurred in Qatif, located in the Eastern Province – Suffered unrest since early 2011– Saudi Shias lack same job opportunities as Sunnis, neighborhoods

receive inadequate state investment, and authorities stop them from building places of worship• Accused Shia power in Iran for causing the unrest

• Activists claim the police had shot blindly at people on rooftops – Security patrol claimed they were under fired and attacked in self

defense

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

• Predictions – Protests will continue until action is taken to

better the livelihood of the Shia population in Saudi

– King Abdullah will try to “appease” all, but Wahhabi rule will not sway very much

– Religious clerics will dislike the inclusion (if it occurs) of Shiites into the government

QatarTypes of Qatari Involvement in Syrian Conflict

- Deployment of terrorists- Financial aid- Weapons supplies- Favorable media coverage of rebels

Reasons for Qatari involvement in Syria- Increased regional and international influence- Support of Islamist movement- Competition with Saudi Arabia for influence in Syria if rebels

topple Assad - Regional blow to Iran

Qatar

Qatar

Qatar

Predictions:- Continued financial and weapon aid to Syria - Intensified aid as Assad regime loses

ground

Bahrain• Strong relationship with U.S.– U.S. 5th Fleet– Massive arms sale – In talks for sale of a Naval Frigate

• Greater GCC Cooperation– GCC supports Bahrain regime in current protests– Member states will combine militaries into one

single command structure.– Bahrain to host joint Military base

Bahrain

• Predictions– Expect greater cooperation among GCC members

as meddling by Iran continues– Do not expect Bahrain Government to fall due to

protests or an escalation to full out rebellion.– Expect neighborly relations with Iran to grow

more distant as Iran supports protestors.

United Arab Emirates

United Arab Emirates• Arms Purchasing from US - Raytheon Company to provide AN/TPY-2 radars as component to Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system.

- AN/TPY-2: Ratheyon’s mobile X-band radar that discerns threats from non-threats and delivers data to fire and communications control.

- Contract valued at $582.5 million and will be provided through 2018.

- Emirates also purchased 16 Chinook helicopters, valued at $939 million (New York Times).

United Arab Emirates• Interest in Arms

Purchasing from UK - UAE and UK to develop “strategic air defence relationship” (Al-Jazeera).

- UAE has shown significant interest in purchasing up to 60 BAE Systems-built Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets (Al-Jazeera).

- Exports from UK to Gulf can be valued at approximately $27.44 billion (Al-Jazeera).

United Arab Emirates

• Nuclear Energy Cooperation Deal with Russia - Monday, December 17: Russia agrees to supply uranium/conversion enrichment services to UAE (World Nuclear News).

- UAE’s first nuclear power plant under newly signed agreement (World Nuclear News).

- Russia’s Techsnabexport (Tenex) has agreed to 15-year contract with first deliveries scheduled for 2014 (World Nuclear News).

- Deal valued at $3 billion (The Moscow Times).

United Arab Emirates

• Saturday, December 29 (Strait of Hormuz): Iran simulates enemy invasion on Iranian territorial waters (The Iran Project).

• Part of three island dispute between UAE and Iran:- Abu Musa- Greater Tunb- Lesser Tunb

• Iran claims absolute rule over islands on the grounds of “gentleman’s agreemant” with UK (Al-Jazeera).

• Located in strategic zone; occupation of islands means “domination of sea lanes entering and exiting” the Gulf (Al-Jazeera).

Predictions

• UAE will continue to amass weapons and military alliances internationally.

• Iran will not relent due to military growth in other Gulf countries.

• Iran will increase military strength and alliances with African coastal regions.