Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 1

Guidance and HE:Contexts and issues

Stephen McNair

Director, CROW

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 2

Some aspects of change

• Continuing economic growth• Demography• Globalisation• Declining social mobility• Labour market polarisation• Rising service sector

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 3

Projected change in age groups 2004-2020

Government Actuary’s Department

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 4

Research: things we know about HE

• It pays – income and life benefits – for most (beware of averages!!)

• It does best for traditional groups – white, male, graduate parents, high status institutions

• Student demand continues to rise• Labour market demand continues to rise

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 5

Government policy

• Personalisation• Choice• Aspirations

– 50% HE participation before 30, – 45% of 19-65 population graduates by 2020

• Increased “employer” involvement• The skills agenda

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 6

Skills and work

• Lifelong perspectives – late starts, deferred exit• International/national/local labour markets• Large/small firms• Sector difference – the role of SSCs?• Underemployment/overqualification• Task discretion matters a lot• People like work but want flexibility and work life balance

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 7

The policy response : Leitchthe core argument

• Skills gaps are serious and growing• Processes for responding to changing skills needs are

too slow• Planning, quotas and targets for skills don’t work – too

slow, too remote, diverted by other concerns• Give power to customers to buy and make the market

work

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 8

Leitch’s assessment: the risk of failing to act

• Slipping further down the international economic league tables• Competitiveness and profitability reducing • Unemployment rising, jobs lost to other countries• Migration and social tensions increasing• Tax yields falling and public services cut back• Spiralling decline

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 9

Leitch’s assessment: the prize for prompt action

• Improved economic performance: £80bn growth in GDP • UK attracting higher inward investment and additional jobs• Functional illiteracy and innumeracy largely overcome, with

corresponding improvements in health and crime figures• Higher skills contributing to a higher standard of living for all

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 10

The Leitch vision?

• Leitch’s proposal: a “demand led system”, which implies:– Consumers:

• empower individuals (Learning Accounts and good career advice)

• empower employers (Sector Skills Councils, Learning brokers, Train to Gain)

– Make suppliers respond: channel funding through individuals and employers, not education providers

– Provide good information and brokerage – a national adult careers service

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 11

“Engaging employers”

• Reification of the concept• HR and strategic managers• Knowledge of specific requirements• Some kinds of “employer”:

– Filling specific vacancies– Career building– Talent spotting – students, staff– “Corporate social responsibility”– Phasing out/off the premises– Market intelligence

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 12

Leitch: a vision outside time?

• Over dependence on qualifications – to diagnose problem and to propose remedies

• Government agendas are not joined up (and will not be)• Work and the lifecourse• Misunderstanding of human capital

– Created by learning (not just courses)– Maintained by use and encouragement– Decays by neglect and obsolescence– Destroyed by bad management

Centre for Research into the Older Workforce HECSU June 2007 13

The new Skills Agenda: opportunities for HE and Careers Services

• Leitch will happen• It will be interpreted more narrowly than he intended• Implementation will generate perverse incentives• HE at its best knows a lot about skills, trends, scenarios,

and can help as a partner, not a slave• HE should justify its independence by responding

intelligently to the ultimate customers, not (necessarily) the intermediaries