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Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 1
Risk Based Asset Management
Decision Support and Comparison of Solution
Alternatives
Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 2
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
1. Motivation for the development of RBAM
2. RBAM-Methodology
3. Example
4. Summary and forecast
Agenda
Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 3
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Necessity of an easy and tough as well as systematic an holistic methodology for deciding in uncertain situations
Methodology need to adapt to different situations
Ambition: Transparent decision progress. best usage of resources (money or people) Achievement of most efficient projects
Motivation for development RBAM
Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 4
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Our RBAM-Methodology works in 4 several phases:I. Risk analysis and development of solutions
II. Evaluation and selection of measures (horizontal optimization)
III. Matching of resources and prioritization (vertical optimization)IV. Monitoring of the non performed measures
RBAM-Methodology
Phase IRisk analysis
Development of solutions
Phase IIEvaluation
Selection of measures
Phase IVMonitoring
Phase III Matching of resources
prioritization
Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 5
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Risk Analysis and development of solutions Defining starting position for all fields of action Defining consequences on business objectives Creation of solutions
Showing just the really important / relevant facts
Consolidate available information
RBAM Methodology - Phase I
Confidentiality - Medium (C2)
2 | RBAM | Gündel, Nippert, Schmude | 09.12.2010
Functional chain of cable connections
High Age, increasing failure
risk
No network charges for depreciated
cables
Quality
Finances
Initial Situation Consequences Effect on objectives
Replacement by Sections
Solution
alternatives
Junction-box-technology is not
approved
No manufacturer support in future
Complete replacement
Repair kit
Increasing frequency of
failures
Little know how in repairing
Long period of repair
Long interruption time
High costs of repair
Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 6
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Evaluation and Selection of measures Calculation for every solution
alternative Summation of Costs and
Benefits per year, discounting to base year and calculation of efficiency
standard conversion factor makes comparison of different business objectives possible
Plastic idea
RBAM Methodology - Phase II
Confidentiality - Medium (C2)
2 | RBAM | Gündel, Nippert, Schmude | 09.12.2010
Calculation scheme “efficiency factor for a measure”
ΣCt0
ΣBt0
ηw
x €
x €
x
x €x €x €x €x €x €…
…t=4t=3t=2t=1t=0
x €x €x €x €x €x €Benefit B1
x €x €x €x €x €x €Benefit B2
x €x €x €x €x €x €…
x €x €x €x €x €x €Σ Benefit
Σ Costs
Cost C2
Cost C1
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
x €
3
2 1
1 Addition of costs per year 2 Discounting to base year
3 Calculation of efficiency (sum of all benefits divided by costs)
Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 7
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Matching of Resources and Prioritization Different measures are ranked
with the efficiency factor Only measures with efficiency-
factor > 1 are done (means: higher benefits then costs)
Realization of measures until resource budget is reached
Shows necessity of budget Makes sure, that only most
efficient projects are realized
RBAM Methodology - Phase III
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
2 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Prioritization
X1500 TEUR0,92250 TEURMeasure 3
100 TEUR
450 TEUR
200 TEUR
300 TEUR
200 TEUR
Costs
1250 TEUR1,05Measure 5
1150 TEUR1,1Measure 6
200 TEUR2,5Measure 2
700 TEUR1,25Measure 1
500 TEUR2Measure 4
Cumulated resourcesηW ExecutionMeasure
Resource
limit:
here: budgetof 700 T
EU
R
?
Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 8
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Monitoring Non implemented measures
are monitored (Risk register)
Value of Risk Register reflects the statistical risk
RBAM Methodology - Phase IV
Confidentiality - Critical (C4), High (C3), Medium (C2), None (C1)
3 | Title of presentation | Author | YYYY.MM.DD
Monitoring
Development of risk accumulation
900
750
820
620
550
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Graphic: Example
Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 9
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Example
Replacement of an old internal gas pressured cable
Comparison of 3 solution alternatives (chart 5)
RBAM analysis has shown: Complete replacement as the
best technical solution Complete replacement as the
most efficient solution Complete replacement
improves Network configuration
Existing cable
Complete replacement
Replacement by sections
Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 10
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
RBAM… is a methodology for a holistic view of economy supports the identification of smarter solutions provides transparency regarding the impact of measures in relation
to our business objectives improves the communication with the commercial departments
due to a translation of the technical challenges into the monetary world
Summary and forecast
Guendel – Germany – Session 5 – Paper 1202 11
Frankfurt (Germany), 6-9 June 2011
Thank you for your attention!
Thorsten SchmudeHead of Network-Strategy
Vattenfall Europe Distribution Hamburg GmbH
Vattenfall Europe Distribution Berlin GmbH
Bramfelder Chaussee 130
22177 Hamburg
P +49 40 – 49202 8920
Thomas GündelSystem-Strategy
Vattenfall Europe Distribution Hamburg GmbH
Bramfelder Chaussee 130
22177 Hamburg
P +49 40 – 49202 8580
F +49 40 – 49202 7030
