GS Asia Pacific+Weekly+Kickstart 100305

8/9/2019 GS Asia Pacific+Weekly+Kickstart 100305

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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 4

Performance snapshot: regions, markets, FX and rates

Asia gained +3% led by India (+4%); Taiwan, Australia and Korea (+3%) followed; Asian FX appreciated against USD: KRW +1.7%, IDR +1.2%Price performance of MSCI market and regional indices

Global markets Asia performance chartPrice return (%) Total (%)

Indices 1-week Ytd Ytd US$ RSI

-2 -3 57

0 -5 60

-2 -2 55

-1 -1 59

0 5 470 1 60

Asian markets

Price return (%) Total (%) Currency 3M yield 10Y yield

Indices 1-week Ytd Ytd US$ RSI Current 1wk chg(%)

Current(%)

1wk chg(bp)

Current(%)

1wk chg(bp)

-1 0 63 45.69 0.9 4.2 5 7.9 4

-7 -7 45 31.92 0.5 0.5 0 1.5 1

-1 0 59 0.90 0.8 4.2 8 5.5 3

-4 -1 50 1140 1.7 2.2 -3 5.0 -10

-4 -5 51

1 3 56 3.36 1.2 2.4 6 4.2 -4

-1 -1 NA 7.76 0.0 0.1 0 2.7 -2

-1 2 65 32.63 1.3 1.4 0 3.9 4

-1 0 47 9235 1.2 7.0 -4 9.6 -25

-5 -4 48 1.40 0.4 0.4 -5 2.7 -1

-9 -- 46 6.83 0.0 1.9 0 3.4 -12

-3 -2 50 46.05 0.2 4.0 -5 8.1 0

1.81.9

3.0

3.1

3.3

4.2

0 1 2 3 4 5

USAJapan

AC World

APJ

Europe

EM

-2.2

-0.7

0.6

1.2

1.3

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.7

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Philippines

China domestic*

Singapore

Indonesia

Thailand

Hong Kong

Malaysia

China offshore

Korea

Australia

Taiwan

India

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

* China domestic performance is based on CSI 300 index. China offshore performance is based on MSCI China index. Note: Currency convention for global markets: AC World USD, USA USD, Japan JPY, MXAPJ

USD, EM USD, Europe EUR; for Asian markets: all local currencies.

Source: Bloomberg, CSI, FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.


5/20



Performance snapshot: Sectors and styles

Materials (+5%) and tech (+4%) led the markets1-week and ytd performance (USD) of MXAPJ sectors

Indian sectors were the top performers; China telcos underperformedTop/bottom 5 performing country sectors (index cap > US$2 bn)

Price return (%)

Indices 1-week Ytd

-2

-5

2

0

-2-3

3

0

-4

-2-1.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.2

3.7

3.9

4.0

4.6

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Telecoms

Energy

Utilities

Health care

Financials

Cons disc

Cons stap

Industrials

Info tech

Materials

Top 5 performing GICS country sectors

Country Sector 1-wk perf. Ytd perf.

India Materials 7.0% 1.4%

India Industrials 5.5% -0.6%

India Cons. stap. 5.2% -1.6%

India Cons. disc. 4.7% 2.4%

India Utilities 4.4% -7.2%

Bottom 5 performing GICS country sectors

Country Sector 1-wk perf. Ytd perf.

China Telcos. -3.2% 0.3%

Australia Telcos. -2.0% -15.2%

Korea Telcos. -1.4% 3.1%

Singapore Financials -0.6% -8.2%

Korea Cons. disc. 0.0% -7.4%

Relative performance of MXAPJ cyclicals vs. defensives Relative performance of MXAPJ large caps vs. mid caps

(Dec-07 = 100)

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

D

ec-07

Feb-08

A

pr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

O

ct-08

D

ec-08

Feb-09

A

pr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

O

ct-09

D

ec-09

Feb-10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

MXAPJ cyclicals vs. defensives MXAPJ index (right) (Dec-07 = 100)

95

100

105

110

115

120

D

ec-07

Feb-08

A

pr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

O

ct-08

D

ec-08

Feb-09

A

pr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

O

ct-09

D

ec-09

Feb-10

25

40

55

70

85

100

MXAPJ Large vs. mid MXAPJ index (right)

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.


6/20



Earnings revisions

Earnings upward revisions have been steadyForward EPS level of MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan (USD) index

2010E growth of Asia is at 26%, still led by Taiwan and Korea2010E consensus earnings growth estimates (local currency), ranked

MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan (USD) index EPS level

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

2009E EPS 2010E EPS (%)

38

23 23

18 17 1616 16 14

12

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Taiwan

Korea

China

India

Malaysia

HongKong

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Indonesia

Australia

MXAPJ

80

Australia and Singapore were revised up; others have less EPS changesCombined ranking by 10E earnings revisions and momentum, past week Materials and financials were upgraded, healthcare was revised downCombined ranking by 10E earnings revisions and momentum, past week

-1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 3.0% 4.5%

Malaysia

India

Thailand

China

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Korea

Taiwan

APxJ

Philippines

Singapore

Australia

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

12M EPS revisions (Bottom) 2010E EPS momentum

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

Health care

Energy

Telecom

Utilities

Industrials

Cons Discretionary

IT

Cons staples

Financials

Materials

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

12M EPS revisions (Bottom) 2010E EPS momentum

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.


7/20



Regional valuations

MSCI market and sector index valuations (based on bottom-up consensus median and bottom-up Goldman Sachs Research estimates)

Consensus estimates GS bottom-up est.

Bloomberg P/E (X) EPS growth (%) P/B (X) D/Y (%) ROAE (%) EPS growth (%)

ticker 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2011E

MSCI markets (local currency)

Australia MXAU 14.7 12.4 12.1 18.8 2.0 4.1 13.9 12.1 18.8

China MXCN 13.5 11.4 23.4 18.9 2.1 2.7 16.5 31.3 19.5

Hong Kong MXHK 15.6 14.3 17.0 9.1 1.4 3.3 9.1 13.3 15.2

India MXIN 17.9 14.7 22.9 21.3 2.8 1.1 16.4 21.5 21.2

Indonesia MXID 13.3 11.1 14.3 19.5 3.2 3.1 25.6 16.7 19.6Japan MXJP 19.1 14.6 173.6 31.1 1.1 1.9 6.2 168.8 30.5

Korea MXKR 9.5 8.6 38.4 10.5 1.3 1.6 14.8 36.5 10.6

Malaysia MXMY 15.2 13.4 18.0 13.2 1.9 3.1 13.2 16.8 14.7

Philippines MXPH 13.9 12.5 16.3 11.6 2.2 3.4 16.1 12.9 11.4

Singapore Free SIMSCI 14.2 12.8 15.8 10.4 1.7 3.4 11.9 11.5 14.7

Taiwan MXTW 14.4 12.0 79.8 17.5 1.8 3.8 12.8 80.3 16.2

Thailand MXTH 11.2 9.6 15.7 16.6 1.6 3.8 15.5 17.1 25.1

AC Asia Pacific ex Japan MXAPJ 13.6 11.8 26.2 15.4 1.8 3.0 14.0 26.9 16.2

AC Asia ex Japan MXASJ 13.2 11.5 31.1 14.5 1.8 2.6 14.0 32.0 15.7

USA MXUS 14.2 11.9 26.5 19.7 2.0 2.0 14.5

Europe (USD) MSDUE15 12.2 10.2 25.2 19.6 1.5 3.8 12.8

EAFE (USD) MXEA 13.6 11.3 37.4 20.9 1.5 3.4 10.9

AC World (USD) MXWD 13.8 11.5 32.1 20.0 1.7 2.7 12.4

MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan GICS sectors (local currency)

Energy MXAPJEN 13.4 11.3 16.0 18.9 1.9 2.7 14.9 21.9 21.1

Materials MXAPJMT 13.7 11.2 30.0 22.3 2.2 2.2 16.7 29.0 21.7

Industrials MXAPJIN 15.2 12.9 45.2 17.6 1.6 2.3 10.9 52.4 19.8

Consumer discretionary MXAPJCD 12.6 11.2 14.9 12.7 1.9 2.4 15.6 12.5 10.2

Consumer staples MXAPJCS 16.8 14.9 9.7 13.0 2.5 3.1 15.2 10.5 14.1

Health care MXAPJHC 19.4 16.8 16.8 15.6 3.7 2.0 19.9 19.4 17.7

Financials MXAPJFN 13.4 11.6 18.5 15.5 1.6 3.8 12.3 19.0 17.7

Information technology MXAPJIT 12.9 11.3 82.5 12.1 2.1 2.3 17.7 82.0 10.3

Telecommunication services MXAPJTC 11.8 11.0 3.8 6.5 1.9 4.9 16.5 2.7 5.8

Utilities MXAPJUT 15.6 13.9 21.4 12.0 1.5 3.1 9.8 18.9 15.9



8/20



Local index valuations (based on bottom-up consensus median and bottom-up Goldman Sachs Research estimates)

Consensus estimates GS bottom-up est.

Bloomberg Index P/E (X) EPS growth (%) P/B (X) D/Y (%) ROAE (%) EPS growth (%)

Market ticker close 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2011E

Local market indexes (local currency)

Asia* SPA50 2,893 11.9 10.5 35.0 13.4 1.7 3.1 15.0 35.5 15.5

MXAPEXA 736 12.1 10.6 33.9 14.2 1.8 3.1 15.8 37.5 16.1

Australia AS51 4,767 14.7 12.4 12.9 18.9 1.9 4.2 13.3 12.9 18.9

Hong Kong/ HSI 20,788 13.4 11.4 20.4 18.0 1.7 3.4 13.5 26.9 22.7

China HSCEI 11,927 12.0 10.0 26.4 20.0 2.0 3.3 17.3 36.3 22.7

HSCCI 4,031 13.1 11.7 13.2 12.4 1.9 2.9 15.2 21.1 11.8

XIN0I 17,896 12.7 10.7 22.4 18.9 1.9 3.0 15.9 31.8 20.8

SHSZ300 3,260 18.1 14.6 31.1 21.3 2.7 1.5 16.6 36.6 21.7

XIN9I 10,660 16.0 13.4 26.9 19.6 2.6 1.7 17.2 33.6 21.1

India NIFTY 5,095 17.3 14.4 19.5 20.6 2.7 1.2 16.1 19.2 21.9

SENSEX 17,021 17.4 14.5 18.7 19.8 2.7 1.2 16.9 19.1 19.8

Indonesia JCI 2,576 13.4 11.3 20.9 20.9 2.7 2.8 21.7 22.6 21.1

LQ45 502 13.2 11.4 18.6 19.4 2.8 2.9 22.8 20.4 19.6

Japan NKY 10,369 21.0 16.1 162.6 30.7 1.3 1.6 6.4 163.3 30.6

TPX 911 19.2 14.6 194.2 31.5 1.1 1.9 5.9 189.2 31.2

Korea KOSPI2 214 9.8 8.8 43.7 11.2 1.3 1.6 14.1 43.6 11.4KOSPI 1,635 9.8 8.7 46.6 12.8 1.3 1.7 13.5 48.6 12.2

KOSDAQ 511 10.9 8.3 61.8 31.2 1.7 0.8 17.2 59.9 31.3

Philippines PCOMP 3,034 12.9 11.5 14.6 11.5 1.9 3.4 15.2 11.0 11.3

Singapore FSSTI 2,785 14.2 12.9 15.0 9.7 1.6 3.2 11.3 5.8 13.2

Taiwan TWSE 7,666 14.5 12.2 74.5 18.0 1.8 3.7 12.7 74.0 17.2

Thailand SET50 510 11.0 9.4 11.0 16.3 1.6 4.1 14.8 13.1 26.4

SET 725 10.9 9.4 12.2 15.9 1.5 4.3 14.4 14.0 24.7

Note: *SPA50 and MXAPEXA indices are quoted in USD. All others are quoted in local currency.Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.


9/20


10/20



Valuations in context

China and Korea are trading below both 5-year average P/E...12M forward P/E relative to 5-year range

... and also P/B12M trailing P/B relative to 5-year range

12M forward P/E (X)

14.813.5 13.5

12.7

10.79.5

13.213.013.8

15.716.9

14.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

India

HongKong

Malaysia

Australia

Singapore

Philippines

Taiwan

China

Indonesia

Thailand

Korea

MXAPJ

+/- 1 Stdev.

One Week Ago

Current

High/low 12M trailing P/B (X)

3.8

3.2

2.5 2.52.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8

1.5 1.4

2.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Indonesia

India

Philippines

China

Malaysia

Australia

Taiwan

Thailand

Singapore

HongKong

Korea

MXAPJ

+/- 1 Stdev.

One Week Ago

Current

High/low

Asia is trading at 13.2X P/E and 2.0X P/B

12M forward P/E and trailing P/B series of MXAPJ index

Relative P/E of MXAPJ vs. SPX and DJ Stoxx 600

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Dec-05

Mar-06

Ju

n-06

Se

p-06

Dec-06

Mar-07

Ju

n-07

Se

p-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Ju

n-08

Se

p-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Ju

n-09

Se

p-09

Dec-09

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

MXAPJ P/E MXAPJ P/B (right)

(X) (X) Relative Forward P/E (X)

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Dec-00

Ju

n-01

Dec-01

Ju

n-02

Dec-02

Ju

n-03

Dec-03

Ju

n-04

Dec-04

Ju

n-05

Dec-05

Ju

n-06

Dec-06

Ju

n-07

Dec-07

Ju

n-08

Dec-08

Ju

n-09

Dec-09

vs. DJ Stoxx 600 vs. SPX



11/20



Fund flows and liquidity

US$1.3 bn inflow during the week, mainly from India US$0.6 bnCumulative net foreign inflow since 2009

Turnover velocity back at 100% levelsAnnualized turnover velocity (turnover / market cap) in Asia ex Japan

US$ bn

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07

Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

March low tonow: US$66 bn

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07

Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

Turnover velocity (5D moving average)

Cash turnover increased across the region except in AU, KR and JPCash turnover on Asian exchanges

Futures turnover dropped, rose slightly in AustraliaFutures turnover on Asian exchanges

(US$ mn)

8,247

4,982 4,436 4,3323,460

2,398

29,031

12,768

27,856

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

APJexChina

China

Japan

HongKong

Australia

Korea

India

Taiwan

ASEAN

260D avg value traded (US$ mn) Last week 5D avg value traded (US$ mn)

Current 5D avg value traded (US$ mn)

(US$ mn)

7,171

3,557

366 131 120

12,347

17,995

3,159

29,222

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Korea

Japan

HongKong

Taiwan

India

Australia

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

260D avg value traded (US$ mn) Last week 5D avg value traded (US$ mn)

Current 5D avg value traded (US$ mn)

Source: AMG, Bloomberg, Reuters, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.


12/20



Risks, credit, and volatility

Risk appetite picked up from last weekGoldman Sachs Asia Pacific ex-Japan Equity Risk Barometer (GS-ERB)

Equities vs. credit performance

-8.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Dec-04

Apr-05

Aug-05

Dec-05

Apr-06

Aug-06

Dec-06

Apr-07

Aug-07

Dec-07

Apr-08

Aug-08

Dec-08

Apr-09

Aug-09

Dec-09

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

APxJ ERB MXAPJ

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan iTraxx Asia ex Japan (right, inverted)

Index level Index level

Realised volatility has reduced slightly during last week

HSI, KOSPI 200 and Nikkei realized volatility

Put costs dropped across the region

Cost of 3-month 90% puts

1M realized volatility (vol pts)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

HSI KS200 N225

Cost of 3-mo 90% puts (mid-market)

2.4 2.31.8 1.8

1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

HSCEI

SPA50

EuroStoxx50

HSI

Nikkei225

TWSE

TOPIX

MSCIWorld

MSCISing

SPX

FTSE-100

KOSPI200

ASX200

1y median

Source: Bloomberg, local stock exchanges, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.


13/20



Economics: Growth, commodities

Goldman Sachs Asian market GDP growth forecasts Commodities were up in general but coal -4%; BDIY rallied 14%

Real GDP growth

forecast (%)2009 2010 2011 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3

Greater China & North Asia

China 8.7 11.4 10.0 10.7 11.9 11.5 11.5

Hong Kong -2.7 5.8 5.3 1.9 8.0 5.3 5.0

Taiwan -1.9 5.5 4.8 9.2 10.3 4.4 3.8

Korea 0.2 4.8 4.6 6.0 7.6 5.6 3.3

India & ASEAN markets

India 6.6 8.2 8.7 6.5 8.3 8.4 8.0

Singapore -2.0 6.2 5.2 4.0 8.1 6.1 4.5

Indonesia 4.5 5.8 6.0 5.4 6.0 6.0 5.7

Malaysia -1.7 5.0 5.2 4.5 7.3 5.0 4.0

Philippines 0.9 4.2 5.0 1.8 3.3 4.6 4.3Thailand -2.3 4.2 4.5 5.8 5.2 4.1 3.7

Asia ex Japan 5.9 9.1 8.5 8.4 9.9 9.2 8.8

Japan -5.0 1.9 1.6 -0.4 2.6 1.6 2.0Euroland -4.0 1.2 1.9 -2.1 0.8 1.3 1.2US -2.4 2.6 2.4 0.1 2.4 3.1 2.9

Current Price performance

Commodity Bloomberg Currency Unit level 1-week ytdS&P GSCI

Spot SPGSCI USD - 520 0% -1%

Agriculture SPGCAL USD - 274 -2% -5%

Energy SPGSEN USD - 265 1% 0%

Metal SPGSIN USD - 392 3% 0%

Precious metal SPGSPM USD - 1515 2% 3%

Commodity spot (* nearby futures)

Baltic Dry BDIY USD - 3121 14% 4%

DRAM DRAMDXI - - 4050 0% 3%

Gold GOLDS USD per oz. 1135 2% 3%WTI * CL1 USD per barrel 81 1% 2%

Coal * QZ1 USD per ton 52 -4% 6%

Steel (rebar)* RBT1 CNY per ton 3861 -1% 17%

Aluminum * LA1 USD per ton 2191 4% -1%

Copper * LP1 USD per ton 7372 3% 0%

Palm oil * KO1 MYR per ton 2675 3% 4%

China PMI Korea Exports

(% yoy)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

(% yoy)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec-00

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, Datastream, Haver, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.


14/20



Stocks

Top- and bottom-10 ranked stocks last week by standardized priceperformance (52-wk std. dev.) (daily liq. > US$10mn, cap > US$3bn)

Top- and bottom-10 ranked stocks last week by earnings momentum (dailyliq. > US$10mn, cap > US$3bn)

1W perf Ytd

Bloomberg Stock name Market GS sector (%) (# S.D.) chg (%)

Top 10 performance

MAY MK Malayan Banking Malaysia Banks 6 5.4 62

6 HK Hongkong Electric Hong Kong Utilities 3 3.5 3

JSP IS Jindal Steel & Power India Steel 10 3.0 357

658 HK China High Speed Transmission EChina Offshore Industrials 12 2.8 79

2777 HK Guangzhou R&F Prop China Offshore Property 13 2.8 52

TPWR IS Tata Power India Utilities 10 2.6 78

TTMT IS Tata Motors India Industrials 12 2.4 400

ITC IS ITC (IN) India Staples 5 2.3 43

SIA SP Singapore Airlines Singapore Transportation 7 2.3 41

SESA IS Sesa GOA India Steel 12 2.2 421

1W perf Ytd

Bloomberg Stock name Market GS sector (%) (# S.D.) chg (%)

Bottom 10 performance

1186 HK China Railway Constr (H) China Offshore Industrials -8 -2.2 -18

11 HK Hang Seng Bank Hong Kong Banks -4 -2.0 8

UOB SP United Overseas Bank Singapore Banks -4 -1.9 38

941 HK China Mobile China Offshore Telecoms -5 -1.6 -6

036460 KP Korea Gas Korea Utilities -5 -1.6 -17

823 HK Link REIT Hong Kong Property -2 -0.7 50

SGX SP Singapore Exchange Singapore Non-bank financials -1 -0.7 50

097950 KP CJ CheilJedang Korea Staples -3 -0.7 14

ONGC IS Oil & Natural Gas India Oil and gas -2 -0.7 64

CPF TB Charoen Pokphand Foods Thailand Staples -3 -0.7 274

Ticker Stock name 1W chg Ticker Stock name 1W chg

Top 10 Bottom 10753 HK Air China (H) 15% TOL AU Toll -8%

MAP AU MAp Group 14% TCL AU Transurban Group -8%

1326 TT Formosa Chem & Fibre 14% SGM AU Sims -6%

ANZ AU Australia & New Zealand 8% BSL AU BlueScope Steel -6%

SMM SP SembCorp Marine 6% RBXY IS Ranbaxy Lab -6%

FMG AU Fortescue Metals 6% LLC AU Lend Lease -6%

AIO AU Asciano Group 5% QBE AU QBE Insurance -4%

144 HK China Merchants 5% 813 HK Shimao Prop -4%

RIO AU Rio Tinto 5% 2601 HK China Pacific Insurance (G -4%

086280 KP Glovis 5% SIME MK Sime Darby -3%

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Worldscope, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.


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Key events

Economic data release

Country Data ConsensusExpected

release date

Taiwan Export Feb 32.9% 8-Mar

Taiwan Import Feb 39.1% 8-MarChina Export Feb 38.3% 10-Mar

China Import Feb 39.2% 10-MarPhilippines Central bank policy meeting 10-Mar

Japan Machinery orders Jan -0.7% 10-MarJapan Corporate goods price index Feb -1.5% 10-Mar

China CPI Feb 2.5% 11-Mar

China PPI Feb 5.1% 11-Mar

China Industrial production Feb 19.6% 11-Mar

China Retail sales Feb 18.1% 11-MarChina FAI Feb 27.0% 11-Mar

Korea Central bank policy meeting 11-MarMalaysia Industrial production Jan 12.2% 11-Mar

Thailand Central bank policy meeting 11-Mar

United States Trade balance Jan -$41.0Bn 11-MarJapan GDP annualized 4Q F 4.0% 11-Mar

United States Advance retail sales Feb -0.2% 12-Mar

Eurozone Industrial production Jan -1.6% 12-Mar

China M2 Feb 24.9% 10-15 Mar

Earnings data release

Bloomberg Proper name MarketExpected

report date000728 CS Guoyuan Sec China Domestic 8-Mar

151 HK Want Want China China Offshore 8-Mar8 HK PCCW Hong Kong 9-Mar

1212 HK Lifestyle Intl China Offshore 9-Mar

601107 CG Sichuan Expressway China Domestic 9-Mar

2038 HK Foxconn Intl China Offshore 9-Mar

66 HK MTR Hong Kong 9-Mar

257 HK China Everbright Intl China Offshore 10-Mar

14 HK Hysan Dev Hong Kong 10-Mar

000001 CS Shenzhen Dev Bank China Domestic 11-Mar

16 HK Sun Hung Kai Prop Hong Kong 11-Mar

601857 CG PetroChina China Domestic 11-Mar

410 HK Soho China China Offshore 12-Mar

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Report priced as of March 4, 2010. Index price return and valuation as of March 5, 2010 5 p.m. HKT.

M h 20 0 A i P ifi P f li S A i P ifi W kl Ki k


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Other disclosures

All MSCI data used in this report is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this

information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used

to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. This information is provided on an as is basis, and the user of this

information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Neither MSCI, any of its affiliates nor any third party

involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect

to this information (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and MSCI, its affiliates and any such third party hereby

expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with

respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third

party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive,

consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. MSCI and the MSCI

indexes are service marks of MSCI and its affiliates. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) were developed by and is

the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poors. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use byThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Research written by Donald Lu on companies listed in Taiwan is written by him in his capacity as consultant to Goldman Sachs

(Asia) L.L.C. Any other research is written in his capacity as employee of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited.

Special disclosure

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and/or one of its affiliates is acting as financial advisor in connection with a proposed privatization

of Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited by way of a scheme of arrangement under Section 86 of the Companies

Law. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and/or one of its affiliates will receive a fee for this advisory role.


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