GROWTH SET TO CONTINUE: Marco-Economic Outlook for Asia/Pacific

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2002 2003E 2004F 2005F 2006F

World

AP

1) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Update; 2) Master Card estimates

GDP growth (%)

Highest growth region with changing trade patterns and increasing portion of domestic

demand

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2002 2010F

China

Korea

Thailand

Malaysia

Taiwan

Size of Middle Class (in million)

Every 1% gained in private consumption translates into over $70b more in

consumption

REGION ASIA – THE NATURE OF THE BEAST

India

China

Thailand

Singapore

Ethnicgroups:

Languages:

Religions:

% sales of modern trade

Ave. priceper footwear (€)

• 336 major tribes

• Hindi• 1,600

dialects

• Hindu• Muslim• Others

• <5%

• 2.3

• 93%Chinese

• 7% others

• Mandarin• >100

dialects

• Confuc-ianism Buddhism,Taoism,others

• <10%

• 3.4

• 75% Thai• 8%

Chinese• 17%

Others

• Thai

• Buddhist, others

• ~30%

• 14.1

• Chinese, Malay, Indian, Others

• English, Malay, Mandarin, etc.

• Christian, Buddhist, Muslim, etc

• >80%

• 48.2

People

TradeStruc.

Pricing

Very Low

Low

Mid

High

Economic development

Japan

• 99 %Japanese

• 1 % Others

• Japanese

• ShintoBuddhist,Others

• >90%

• >48

Source: Lit search; CIA Factbook; BCG analysis

Ethnicgroups:

Languages:

Religions:

% sales of modern trade

Ave. priceper footwear (€)

Ethnicgroups:

Languages:

Religions:

% sales of modern trade

Ave. priceper footwear (€)

Ethnicgroups:

Languages:

Religions:

% sales of modern trade

Ave. priceper footwear (€)

Ethnicgroups:

Languages:

Religions:

% sales of modern trade

Ave. priceper footwear (€)

Population

• Half of the world population

• Young population …• … >50% below 30 years

old• Increasing concentration

in cities

• … 30% 0 to 14 years old

REGION ASIA – THE NATURE OF THE BEASTPopulation

in mio.Population

in mio.Population

in mio.Population

in mio.

2001 2007 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC

China 1,278 1,339 1,380 1,386

India 1,027 1,112 1,235 1,250

Indonesia 214 232 254 257

Japan 127 127 125 125

Vietnam 80 89 94 95

Philippines 78 85 100 102

Thailand 63 63 66 66

Korea 47 49 51 51

Malaysia 24 25 29 30

Taiwan 22 24 24 24

Australia 19 20 22 22

Hong Kong, China

7 6 9 9

New Zealand 4 4 4 4

Singapore 3 4 4 4

Calcutta 2,993 3,179 94,217 95,055

Popu

latio

n (m

illio

n)

GNI Per Capita (US$) 2002

100 10000 100000

10

100

1000

10000

China

Indonesia

PhilippinesVietnam

Thailand

Malaysia

Korea

Singapore

Hong Kong

Taiwan

India

Japan

1000

ASIA PACIFIC RELATIVE SIZE OF ECONOMIES

1000 10000 100000

10

100

1000

10000China

Indonesia

PhilippinesVietnam

Thailand

Malaysia

Korea

Singapore

Hong Kong

Taiwan

India

Japan

ASIA PACIFIC RELATIVE SIZE OF ECONOMIES MEASURED WITH PURCHASING POWER PARITY

GNI Per Capita (US$) 2002 PPP

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

)

City Country Ranking Population

Tokyo Japan 1 33,413,000

Mexico Mexico 2 21,701,925

New York USA 3 21,199,865

Seoul South Korea 4 20,156,800

Sao Paulo USA 4 20,156,800

Jakarta Indonesia 6 18,206,700

Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe

Japan 7 17,646,900

Delhi India 8 17,367,300

Mumbai India 9 17,340,900

Los Angeles USA 10 16,895,945

Le Caire Egypt 11 16,244,700

Calcutta India 12 14,362,546

Buenos Aires Argentine 13 14,235,106

Manila Philippines 14 14,140,000

Moscow Russia 15 12,622,400

City Country Ranking Population

Shanghai China 16 12,190,000

Rio de Janeiro Brazil 17 11,629,629

Teheran Iran 18 11,475,100

Paris France 19 11,376,193

Ruhr Germany 20 11,291,100

Karachi Pakistan 21 10,807,800

Dhaka Bangladesh 22 10,545,897

Istanbul Turkey 23 10,301,400

Londres Royaume Uni 24 10,229,219

Lagos Nigeria 25 9,529,700

Beijing China 26 9,376,200

Bangkok Thailand 27 9,308,924

Chicago USA 28 9,157,540

Kinshasa-Brazzaville

Congo 29 8,915,800

Nagoya Japan 30 8,657,000

THE 30 LARGEST CITIES IN THE WORLD

By 2010……

UNDERSTANDING ASIA

• 30 towns of >5 million habitants 2 in USA, 6 in Europe)

• Shanghai, Bombay > 20 million

• Beijing, Indonesia, Manila,

Calcutta, Delhi, Tianjin, Dacca >15

million

• from village to Metropolitan

• from export to market demand

• from poverty to major savings

• from labor force to advanced technologies

• from isolation to integration

• the asianisation of the world

6 Megatrends in the Region

UNDERSTANDING ASIA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Nominal private consumption (US$ Bn)

2003

2008Asia-Pacific Aggregate

NOMINAL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FOR ASIA-PACIFIC AT A GLANCE

• from village to Metropolitan

• from export to market demand

• from poverty to major savings

• from labor force to advanced technologies

• from isolation to integration

• the asianisation of the world

6 Megatrends in the Region

UNDERSTANDING ASIA

China

Asia

EuropeUSA30%

20%6%10%

• from village to Metropolitan

• from export to market demand

• from poverty to major savings

• from labor force to advanced technologies

• from isolation to integration

• the asianisation of the world

6 Megatrends in the Region

UNDERSTANDING ASIA

• from village to Metropolitan

• from export to market demand

• from poverty to major savings

• from labor force to advanced technologies

• from isolation to integration

• the asianisation of the world

6 Megatrends in the Region

UNDERSTANDING ASIA

• from village to Metropolitan

• from export to market demand

• from poverty to major savings

• from labor force to advanced technologies

• from isolation to integration

• the asianization of the world

6 Megatrends in the Region

UNDERSTANDING ASIA

• Poverty

• Unemployment

• Financial Fragility

• Infrastructure

• Corruption

• Deregulation & Trade Liberalization

CHALLENGES FOR ASIA PACIFIC

BRAND CATEGORY

1 Sony Consumer electronics

2 Nokia Mobile phone

3 Kodak Camera/Film/Office Equipment

4 Panasonic Computer/Consumer electronics

5 Coca-Cola Soft drinks

6 Canon Camera/Office equipment

7 Toyota Automotive/Motorcycle

8 Honda Automotive/Motorcycle

9 Fuji Camera/Consumer electronics

10 Nike Sports apparel/Accessories/Footwear

11 Rolex Luxury watch/Accessories

12 McDonald’s Fastfood/Coffee chain

13 Mercedes-Benz Automotive

14 BMW Automotive/Motorcycle

15 Shell Petrol/Oil company

16 adidas Sports apparel/Accessories/Footwear

17 Samsung Automotive/Consumer electronics

18 Marlboro Cigarette

19 7-Eleven Convenience store/Supermarket

20 Yahoo Internet search engine

Source: “media Portfolio” 16 July 2004

THE TOP 20 BRANDS ACROSS EIGHT ASIAN MARKETS