growth of real GDP, ch% saar The External …pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/867211473175472930/Global...February 18, 2010 External Environment for Developing Countries page 3 United States

February 18, 2010

The External Environment for Developing Countries

Overview

This brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Elliot (Mick) Riordan, comprising

Riordan (G-3, forex, edits), Nadia Spivak (trade), Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina

Savescu (IP) and Sabah Mirza (Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

February 2010

Mixed outturns for OECD growth characterized the final quarter of 2009, with the United States

and Japan beating market expectations by growing 5.7%- and 4.6% respectively (saar) on much slower

depletion of inventories, improved export performance, and critically, a return of business investment to

growth after a year of double digit declines. European growth disappointed at 0.3%, with German GDP

flat, as unemployment continues to increase and household spending remains in negative territory. A

note of encouragement is a step-up of imports across the OECD, providing a stronger foundation for

world trade in the months ahead.

Sovereign debt risk has moved to center stage, pummeling global equity markets and yielding a

6.5% decline in the euro/dollar exchange rate. Credit default swap (CDS) spreads on European sover-

eigns have seen a sharp rise since October, with spreads in Greece (214 basis points (bps)), Portugal

(135 bps) and Spain (67 bps) widening significantly—highlighting the vulnerability of countries with seri-

ous budget/debt problems. CDS spreads for Japan and the United States increased as well.

Commodity prices fall on demand concerns, as crude oil prices (World Bank average) peaked

above $81/bbl in early January, sparked by cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere; but fell to $70b/

bbl in early February on moderating temperatures and concern about the sluggish tenor of global oil de-

mand. Metals prices dropped sharply in late January and into February, with lead and zinc falling 25%,

before stabilizing. The decline is due to several factors, including concerns about monetary tightening,

demand in China, rising inventories and the sudden appreciation of the dollar.

Capital flows started the year on a firm note, boosted by surging bond issuance. At $33 billion in

January, total flows stood 11% above the $29 billion monthly average for 2009; but less-than Decem-

ber‘s $47 billion. Bank lending slumped to $5 billion in January, the lowest volume since April of last

year; equity placements also slipped to $7 billion, with East Asia accounting for much of the decline.

European growth outturns disappoint

in fourth quarter

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

United States Japan Euro Area

Q2-2009

Q3-2009

Q4-2009

Source: National Agencies.

growth of real GDP, ch% saar

Equity markets and the euro pressured by

Greek sovereign debt fragility

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10

MSCI-EM$ index

Source: Morgan-Stanley and Thomson/Datastream.

DAX, Dow Jones Industrials and MSCI-EM indices, Sep-1 09=100.

DAX

Dow Jones

February 18, 2010

page 2 External Environment for Developing Countries

Global Indicators

Global Indicators

(Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)

2007 2008 2009e 2010f

GDP volume: World 3.9 1.7 -2.2 2.7

Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 5.0 2.7 -1.0 3.5

High-income countries 2.6 0.4 -3.3 2.3

Developing countries 8.1 5.6 1.2 5.2

Industrial production: World 4.7 0.6 -8.0 ...

High-income countries 2.6 -1.8 -12.8 ...

Developing countries 9.7 6.0 1.7 ...

Export volume (GNFS): World 7.2 3.0 -14.4 4.3

High-income countries 6.2 2.1 -15.4 3.4

Developing countries 9.8 5.3 -11.7 6.4

Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 5.5 6.0 -4.9 1.5

Oil ($/bbl) 71.1 97.0 61.8 76.0

Non-oil commodities 17.1 21.0 -21.6 5.3

Nominal interest rates:

$LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 5.20 3.20 1.15 1.80

€LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.30 4.80 1.50 2.20

Financial flows

FDI ($billion) 520 583 ... ...

Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 652 389 353 347347347

Equity placement ($bn) 194 68 109 109109109

Bond financing ($bn) 146 65 115 115115115

Lending ($bn) 312 257 128 123123123

Source: DECPG, February 2010. Estimates and projections for 2009 and 2010 based on GEP-2010, released January 21, 2010.

Note: a. Gross inflows 2010 based on preliminary year-to-date figures. Figures in bold represent changes this month.

February 18, 2010


United States

GDP up in fourth quarter. Several factors aligned

to boost GDP growth to 5.7% in the fourth quarter

(saar), the fastest pace in six years. Slowing of inven-

tory depletion by business added a full 3.3 points to

growth. And consumer spending continued to gain,

though at a slower 2% pace contrasted with 2.8% in

the preceding period. Of note, business investment

emerged to growth for the first since mid-2008, and a

similar turnaround for residential investment, up 18.9%

and 5.7% in the third and fourth quarters respectively,

marks the effective ―end‖ of the housing recession.

Carryover effects into the first months of 2010 should

be strong, underpinning domestic demand. For all of

2009, however, GDP contracted 2.4% (worst since

1946); consumption fell 0.6% ( last in 1974), and fixed

investment contracted 18.5% (versus 20% in 1949).

Virtuous cycle? Manufacturing advanced in Janu-

ary, with the ISM index jumping to 58.4, a sixth monthly

advance; and activity in services increased for the first

in three months. Factory orders picked-up 0.9% in De-

cember (m/m) on the back of strong demand for dur-

ables. Against this background, U.S. job loss dwindled

to 35,000 in January (3-month moving average) as

firms are now easing the pace of redundancies, and

signs of new hires are emerging. These developments

are echoed in January retail sales (up 0.5% m/m), the

third increase in four months, boosting momentum to a

strong 9.5% (saar). Completing a possible ―virtuous

cycle‖, consumer sentiment was better-than expected

in January, with more optimism on receding job losses.

Trade in strong recovery. An important develop-

ment is the return of U.S. trade volumes to strong dou-

ble-digit growth at year-end 2009. A rise in overseas

demand, notably among developing countries, has

served to boost goods exports to annualized gains of

35% in December (saar) from decline as of June 2009.

And the effects of domestic stimulus measures, both

fiscal and monetary, may be witnessed in the ramp-up

of import volumes to a pace centered on 30% in late

year. This is good news all around, offering support for

U.S. production, while helping to solidify global trade at

the faster pace needed to rekindle GDP gains in many

countries.

U.S. GDP growth jumps 5.7% in Q4-09

on stocks, investment and exports

-0.7

2.2

5.7

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q2-2009 Q3-2009 Q4-2009

Prv Consumption Gvt Consumption Fixed Investment

change in Stocks Net Exports GDP

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

Improvements in labor markets continue to underpin increases in household outlays

change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [L]; retail sales x autos, ch% (saar) [R]

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10

Source: U.S. Departments of Labor and Commerce.

retail x autos [R]

change in employment [L]

U.S. exports up on increased overseas

demand- net-X likely to add to growthexport and import volumes, ch% saar

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09

Exports Imports

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

February 18, 2010


Japan

GDP regains momentum. Japanese GDP

growth revived to 4.6% during the fourth quarter

(saar) from nil during the third, on a pickup in govern-

ment outlays (3.3%); household spending (2.7%) and

positive contributions from net trade (2.4 points). But

importantly, growth found support in a return to

growth of business fixed investment (4%) after a year

of double-digit decline. The shift in capital spending

provided a 1.8 point improvement in GDP growth

during the quarter, and is a welcome development

against the background of policy and political difficul-

ties for the new Government, the movement of sover-

eign debt risk to the fore of financial markets, and a

worsening of overall deflation in the economy. For all

of 2009, GDP contracted by 5.1%, worst since mod-

ern statistics have been kept beginning in 1980.

Capital spending picks up. Business and resi-

dential investment have been among the weaker

spots in the Japanese economic profile for the last

two years, falling by a cumulative 20%- and 22%

respectively since the start of 2008. But recent

Tankan surveys of the Bank of Japan have high-

lighted an upturn in the view for business conditions

among manufacturers, by some 25 points for large

firms and 17 points for small firms since the second

quarter. In the December 2009 Survey, ―forecasts‖

for fixed investment were revised up by 2.6 percent-

age points for manufacturers, and 1.6 points for all

industries, pointing to the growth results seen.

Export prospects improve. Japan‘s exports

increased in year-on-year terms for the first in 15

months during December, helping the country post a

monthly trade surplus and ease concerns of falling

into a ‗double dip‘ recession. Booming import de-

mand from China which overtook the United States

as Japan‘s largest export destination in 2009, played

a large part in this rebound. Moreover, machinery

orders jumped 21% in December (m/m), carrying

orders growth to 35% for the fourth quarter (saar);

while export volumes surged to a 55% pace in the

quarter, the strongest performance since 2002. Pros-

pects appear favorable, as import demand gains

traction, particularly among the OECD economies.

Japan‟s GDP regains dynamic in Q4-09

on turn in capex to positive growth

5.2

0.0

4.6

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q2-2009 Q3-2009 Q4-2009

Prv Consumption Gvt Consumption Fixed Investment

change in Stocks Net Exports GDP

Source: Japan Cabinet Office, EPA.

growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009

Large Mfg Small Mfg Large non-Mfg Small non-Mfg

Source: Bank of Japan.

Tankan for fourth quarter underlined a

likely pick-up in investment dispersion indices

Japan‟s orders and exports revive

in the last months of 2009machinery orders, production and export volumes ch% (saar)

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70


Production

Orders

Exports

Source: Japan- METI.

February 18, 2010


Euro Area

Euro Area GDP disappoints. ―Flash‖ estimates

suggest that Euro Area GDP growth came to a near

standstill in the final months of 2009, with output in-

creasing a scant 0.3% (q/q, saar) in the fourth quar-

ter following stronger 1.7% gains in the previous pe-

riod. The slowdown comes on the back of zero

growth in Germany, where consumer and business

spending waned and export prospects softened.

Growth in France advanced 2.4% (saar) in the quar-

ter (boosted by continuation of public sector incen-

tives) while falling 2.2% for all of 2009; Italian output

compressed 0.9% in the quarter and dropped a sub-

stantial 4.8% in the year.

Households mute. Unemployment in the Euro

Zone increased to 10% in December, highlighting

concerns that economic recovery is not translating

into job growth. And additions to the dole queue will

continue to dampen household spending, the weak-

est point in the economy. Though details for the de-

mand side of fourth-quarter GDP are not yet avail-

able, retail sales data point to consistent year-on-

year declines for the Zone in aggregate (1.6% in De-

cember), and for Germany, Italy and Spain. January

readings for consumer (and business) confidence

were upbeat, but this may prove short-lived following

the poor growth outturns, escalation of tensions on

sovereign debt risk in the Zone, and sharp related

declines in equity markets and the euro.

German weakness. Factory orders for German

firms fell sharply in December, from both domestic

and foreign sources. Total orders dropped 2.3% in

the month (m/m); those from domestic firms fell 1.4%

and from foreign customers declined a hefty 3.2%.

These figures have altered growth profiles substan-

tially, with export orders at a 10% pace in the fourth

quarter (saar) compared with 38% during the third;

domestic orders have dipped to negative ground

(10%) in the final quarter of 2009 from 43% in the

third quarter. Production was holding in a 15%

growth pattern through November, but fell to a mea-

ger 3.5% gain in December (saar). It is hoped by

German investors that the rising tide of global im-

ports will lift Germany‘s export performance to sup-

port a revival early in 2010.

Euro-Area growth held to 0.3%

in Q4-09 on flat outturns for Germany

-1

0

1

2

3

Euro Area Germany France

Q2-2009

Q3-2009

Q4-2009

Source: EuroStat.

growth of real GDP, ch% saar

European unemployment escalates continuing to dampen household spending

Euro Area unemployment rate (%) [L]; retail sales volume, ch% (3mma, y/y) [R]

-3

-2

-1

0

1

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0


Source: Eurostat.

retail sales [R]

unemployment rate [L]

German factory orders hit hard

leading to weaker output growthexport orders, manufacturing production, ch% (saar)

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50


Production

Export orders

Domestic orders

Source: Bundesbank.

February 18, 2010


Industrial Production

Euro Area output growth turns negative in

fourth quarter. Momentum in Euro zone industrial

production fell to negative 0.8% in the fourth quarter

(saar), down markedly from 9% gains in the third

quarter. Weak domestic demand and the coldest

winter in 50 years took their toll on activity. Euro Area

GDP came to a near standstill in the fourth quarter,

inching up 0.3% (q/q, saar), as GDP in Germany was

flat- while in Italy it contracted 0.9%. Meanwhile in-

dustrial production in emerging Europe continued at

a strong pace, seemingly at odds with disappointing

GDP readings for the final quarter of 2009.

Manufacturing PMIs point to expansion in

ECA markets. January PMIs moved above the 50

―growth mark‖ for Russia and Hungary for the first

time since September 2009 and September 2008

respectively, and survey outturns improved for Tur-

key, the Czech Republic and South Africa, pointing to

a firming of recovery in the months ahead. These

improvements are lagging Asia and Latin America,

which have rebounded more quickly, supported by a

combination of strong domestic demand and improv-

ing export orders. Moreover, weak demand from core

Euro-zone counties could endanger recovery in

emerging Europe, a development now underpinned

by increasing concern over sovereign debt fragilities.

Sustained production growth in BICS. Out-

put growth averaged 14% in the final quarter of 2009

in Brazil, China, India, and South Africa, down from a

17.5% pace in the third quarter (saar). Strong pro-

duction gains were supported by external demand as

well as robust domestic conditions. In Brazil, output

was up a record 18.9% in December (y/y). In India

increased domestic and foreign orders drove yearly

production gains to 16.8% in December, the strong-

est pace in two decades. South Africa‘s IP continued

to move-up and reached strongest growth in the

fourth quarter since the start of the financial crisis.

And China‘s momentum remains impressive at

14.9%, down only slightly from the 17.1% pace of the

third quarter. The profile of recovery is much in keep-

ing with DECPG‘s expectations to date. But an eas-

ing of current growth to more sustainable rates ap-

pears likely over the course of 2010.

Eurozone lost growth momentum in the

fourth quarter on weak domestic demand

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20


Eurozone ECA

industrial production (percent change, saar)

Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data.

BICS production momentum supported by

strong domestic and external demand

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40


Brazil

India

China

South Africa

Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data.

industrial production (percent change, saar)

European and African emerging markets factory

PMI above 50 “growth mark” in January

35

40

45

50

55

Czech Rep. Russia Hungary Turkey Poland South Africa

Index sa, 50+ = Expansion

Source: JPMorgan-Chase.

February 18, 2010


International Trade

U.S. and China imports increasing. The U.S.

current account deficit has narrowed substantially as

a result of the financial crisis and recession, from

1.67% of world GDP in 2005 to 0.7% projected for

2010. But in recent months the trade deficit has be-

gun to widen once more, in part due to rising com-

modity prices, but more recently linked to an upswing

in imports fueled by a recovery in consumer spend-

ing– and in turn by government stimulus measures.

In China, fiscal outlays and tax cuts have bolstered

domestic spending. But authorities appear to be

tightening monetary policy (modestly) with several

increases in bank reserve requirements, which may

rein-in consumer spending and give rise to larger

trade surpluses once more. Still, acceleration of U.S.

and Chinese imports is a favorable element for reviv-

ing world trade in coming months and quarters.

Demand for durables leads rebound in

world trade. As consumer spending begins to sta-

bilize in response to unprecedented government

stimulus efforts worldwide, increasing demand for

durable goods and capital equipment is leading the

rebound in trade volumes for both high income and

developing countries. Increases in exports from ma-

jor producers of manufactures highlight this develop-

ment. In most recent observations, shipments of

manufactured products were up 11% from Israel

(3mma, y/y), 8.8% from Turkey and the Philippines,

and 3.4% from Mexico.

European exports improve regional trade

balance in 2009. Exports from the Euro Zone

grew 3.1% in December 2009 (m/m), outpacing im-

ports for a €7 billion trade surplus, the largest in over

five years. However, trade remains well below pre-

crisis levels; exports for the region in 2009 were

down 18% while dropped fell 21%. Over the last

quarter of 2009 Euro Zone exporters benefited from

a marked retreat in the euro from a 15-month high

$1.50 per euro to a current value of $1.37. Stronger

external demand for European manufactures has

been supporting the region‘s recovery, even as do-

mestic demand continues to face substantial head-

winds.

Imports by the United States and China revive on fiscal stimulus measures

value of imports, year-over-year percent change

-40

-20

0

20

40

60


China year-over-year growth

USA year-over-year growth

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Haver Analytics.

Increasing demand for capital- and

consumer durable goods underpins

exports of manufacturesManufacturing exports in value terms, year-over-year % change

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


Israel Mexico

Philippines Turkey

Source: Haver Analytics.

European exports boost region‟s

trade surplus to 5 year peakEuro Area exports & imports, ch% saar, and trade balance in billion euros

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


BOT €bn [R] Exports ch% [L] Imports ch% [L]

Source: EuroStat.

February 18, 2010


Commodity Prices

Oil prices fall on demand concerns. Crude

oil prices (World Bank average) peaked above $81/

bbl in early January, sparked by cold weather in the

Northern Hemisphere; but fell to $70b/bbl in early

February on moderating temperatures and concern

about the sluggish tenor of global oil demand. For the

last four months oil prices have traded within OPEC‘s

preferred $70-$80/bbl band, averaging just under

$76/bbl. Oil market fundamentals have slowly been

tightening, with world demand positive in the fourth

quarter following five consecutive quarterly declines.

OECD demand is down 3% (y/y), continuing more-

than four years of retrenchment. The IEA now pro-

jects a robust 1.6mb/d or 1.8% increase in global oil

demand for 2010—all outside of the OECD.

Petroleum stocks drop, but remain high.

OECD total commercial oil inventories—expressed in

days of forward consumption--have been depleting

since Q1-09, but took a significant drop during the

fourth quarter. The falloff was centered in U.S. and

Japanese petroleum products—due both to strong

winter heating demand and lower refinery runs linked

to still-weak overall consumption. Inventory cover

remains high in the United States and Europe, where

crude and products remain above the upper end of

the 5-year average range. Moreover, 145mbbl of oil

remains stored at sea, of which 59mbbl are crude,

and the remainder products.

OPEC production increases. OPEC crude oil

production continues to edge higher, with output up

1mb/d from the lows of February 2009. The largest

increases have come from Saudi Arabia, Angola,

Nigeria and Iraq. Consequently, compliance with

OPECs cumulative 4.2mb/d of agreed cuts (from

January 2009) has fallen below 60%. OPEC spare

capacity has remained near 6.5mb/d as more than

1mb/d of new capacity was added in the last year,

largely in Saudi Arabia. OPEC meets next on March

17th to discuss market developments, but is unlikely

to alter production levels if prices remain in the cur-

rent price range—a band that the Saudi oil minister

stated is perfect for producers and consumers.

OECD total oil stocksdays of forward consumption

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

4Q99 4Q01 4Q03 4Q05 4Q07 4Q09

Source: IEA and DECPG.

OPEC spare capacity (mb/d)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Source: OPEC, IEA and DECPG.

Crude oil prices relatively flat

in recent months

25

50

75

100

125

150

$/bbl

WTI

Dubai

Brent

Source: Thomson/Datastream and DEC Prospects Group.

February 18, 2010


Agriculture prices up for fourth month. Ag-

ricultural prices increased a sharp 2% in January (m/

m) pulling the aggregate index up 10% since Sep-

tember 2009. The largest gain has been in raw mate-

rials, with rubber up 42% (including a 10% increase

in January) due to strong demand facing adverse

weather conditions in major Asian rubber producing

countries (Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia). But

the largest advance in January was for sugar, reach-

ing fresh nominal highs, as Indonesia and India an-

nounced plans to import large amounts of the sweet-

ener. Palm-kernel oil prices increased 5.9% in the

month due to poor crops of coconut oil (a close sub-

stitute). Offsetting these gains were moderate de-

clines in grain prices linked to expectations for favor-

able global supplies.

Metals prices fall on demand concerns.

Strong recovery in metals prices continued into early

January with some doubling in price over the last

year, e.g. lead and zinc. But prices dropped sharply

in late January and into February, with lead and zinc

falling 25% before stabilizing recently. The decline is

tied to several factors, including concerns about

monetary tightening, demand in China, rising inven-

tories and the sudden appreciation of the dollar.

Moreover, the massive imports and stocking of met-

als in China in the first half of 2009 has given way to

more moderate import growth and destocking. There

are concerns that the pick-up in non-Chinese de-

mand already underway will not be sufficient to offset

a policy-induced slowing of Chinese consumption.

Metals stocks rise. LME inventories for most

metals have been rising for more than a year. For

aluminum, stocks have been climbing since 2005

and soared to record levels during the slump on

steady increases in Chinese capacity. Nickel stocks

are at record highs, while lead, tin and zinc invento-

ries have also climbed but stand well below historic

highs. Copper stocks fell in the first half of 2009 due

to large imports by China, but have recovered to new

highs on reduced Chinese demand. Copper prices

are much nearer earlier highs than other metals as

the industry has been plagued by strikes and other

operating problems.

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Beverages

Raw Materials

Food

Agriculture prices buoyed by strong gains

in rubber and sugar(Index 2000=100)

Source: DECPG.

Metals prices fall sharply in early 2010

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

$/ton

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Source: LME and DECPG.

Metals stocks continue to increase

as markets remain in surplus

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

$/ton „000 tons

Copper price

LME stocks

Source: LME and DECPG.

February 18, 2010


International Finance

Bonds underpin flows in January. Capital

flows started the year on a firm note, boosted by surg-

ing bond issuance. At $33 billion in January, total flows

stood 11% above the $29 billion monthly average for

2009; but less-than December‘s $47 billion. Bond fi-

nancing increased to $21 billion in the month, the high-

est level for a January on record. Sovereign borrowers

accounted for about 57% of total EM borrowing ($12

billion), as many governments took advantage of

strong foreign demand and favorable market condi-

tions. Bank lending slumped to $5 billion in January,

the lowest monthly volume since April 2009; and equity

placements slipped to $7 billion, with East Asia ac-

counting for much of the decline.

Sovereign credit risk rises. Fears over mounting

government debt have driven sovereign default risk

higher in the last months, with a much more severe

impact on developed economies than on emerging

markets. Credit default swap (CDS) spreads on Euro-

pean sovereigns have seen a sharp rise since October

2009, with spreads in Greece (214 basis points (bps)),

Portugal (135 bps) and Spain (67 bps) widening signifi-

cantly—highlighting the vulnerability of countries with

serious budget/debt problems. CDS prices for other

countries such as France and Germany also increased

as stress spreads to ―safer‖ economies of the euro

zone. Meanwhile, EM sovereign credits have so far

weathered the volatility in the developed world rela-

tively well. Indeed, CDS spreads for Brazil, Poland,

and Mexico are currently trading lower than those for

Greece, Portugal, or Ireland.

Global equities weak. World bourses have tum-

bled since mid-January peaks, as investors‘ risk appe-

tite was dented by concerns over China‘s monetary

tightening, Greece‘s fiscal problems and uncertain

regulatory reform for U.S. banks. EM equities fared

worse in January, posting a 4.5% loss contrasted with

a 3.7% drop in mature markets. Year-to-date numbers

are similar, with emerging markets dropping 5.3% com-

pared with a 4.2% decline in developed markets. This

is a sharp change from 2009, when EM stocks gained

more than mature markets, with the benchmark MSCI

EM index soaring 58%. Recently, notable declines

have been posted in the euro zone (-6.3% year-to-date

return), led by Greece, Portugal, and Spain.

Bonds underpin January flows

Source: DECPG.

$ billion 2010

H1 H2 Total Jan H1 H2 Dec Total Jan

Total 258 132 390 24 110 243 47 353 33

Bonds 53 12 65 9 36 80 7 115 21

Banks 151 106 257 9 43 86 29 128 5

Equity 54 14 68 6 32 77 11 109 7

0

Lat. America 61 29 90 10 37 100 21 137 8

Bonds 17 3 20 5 15 47 5 62 7

E. Europe 99 57 157 4 22 50 8 72 13

Bonds 27 7.7 35 2 13 20 1 33 7

Asia 69 29 98 9 44 78 15 122 11

Bonds 7 0 7 2 6 10 0.1 16 7

Others 28 17 45 1 7 14 2 21 0.2

2008 2009

Sovereign debt default risk has soared

notably for several EU countries

Source: Bloomberg and DECPG staff calculations.

5-year sovereign CDS

spreads (basis points)

Current level

(as of Feb. 15)

Before Greece debt

crisis (end Oct-09)

Pre-Lehman

(Sep. 12 2008)Developed countries:

Germany 45 21 9

U.S. 52 19 10

France 61 23 12

Japan 81 60 17

U.K. 92 50 22

Italy 130 74 44

Spain 139 72 40

Irealnd 158 138 31

Portugal 193 58 41

Greece 354 140 53

Emerging markets:

China 85 80 72

Brazil 140 137 155

Mexico 140 168 134

Poland 146 116 72

South Africa 170 150 191

Russia 198 192 168

Turkey 202 190 276

Philippiness 203 178 240

Source: Bloomberg and World Bank staff calculations

-6.5

-5.5

-4.5

-3.5

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

January February* Year to date*

Mature markets Emerging markets EU U.S.

Source: Bloomberg and DECPG staff calculations.*through February 15

EM equities underperform mature

markets over 2010 to dateLocal currency returns by period

February 18, 2010


Currencies

Fears over Greek debt sink euro. As the

specter of potential default on Greece‘s sovereign

debt- without ―bailout‖ funding from the EU- height-

ened in February, equity markets in Europe, and the

euro itself were hit quite hard. Greece must issue

some €53 billion ($72 billion) in bonds during 2010,

and faces redemptions of about €8 billion in both

April and May. Market fears of spillover from Greece

to other more-vulnerable countries (including Portu-

gal, Ireland and Spain) intensified the downturn such

that the euro lost 6.5% of its dollar value over the

month to February 15; falling 7% against the yen.

Stagnant Euro Area GDP growth in the fourth quarter

grounded in flat German performance also added

pressure on the currency, as GDP gains for the

United States and Japan rose more-than 4%, leaving

Europe as laggard in recovery.

Global equity markets suffer. Sovereign debt

difficulties in Europe have echoed through equity

markets worldwide, as investors fear fallout in bank-

ing sectors where exposures to Greek and other

European government bonds are high. Moreover,

disruption to financial markets at a time when global

conditions remain fragile runs the risk of damaging

the momentum of recovery. China‘s moves to slow

credit creation have also tended to de-rail market‘s

earlier enthusiasm. In Europe, the CACI index

(France) dropped 10% over the month to February

15; DAX (Germany) fell 7.8% and MSCI-ECA de-

clined a sharp 12%. Dow Jones dipped 5% and over-

all emerging markets retrenched by 10%.

Euro decline mixed blessing. From a position

of relative strength over much of 2009—the euro ap-

preciated 5.2% against the dollar in the year, and

12% on average against the currencies of emerging

Europe―the currency‘s position worked against the

drive for export-led GDP growth. With the euro now

softening (albeit for less than fortuitous reasons) Ger-

man and French exports are gaining competitiveness

just as import demand across the developing world is

increasing sharply. But the stronger currency‘s mod-

erating effects on domestic inflation will wane, while

costs of debt service in foreign currency could in-

crease substantially.

Stagnant European growth, equity declines

add more pressure to euro downturn

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10

MSCI-EM$ index

Source: Morgan-Stanley and Thomson/Datastream.

DAX, Dow Jones Industrials and MSCI-EM indices, Sep-1 09=100.

DAX

Dow Jones

Euro cross rates vary by trade partner

broadly based on economic conditions

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10

Polish zloty

Russian rouble

Turkish lira

Hungarian florint

Czech krona

U.S. dollar

Japanese yen

Ch% 2010 to date ch% 2009

Source: Thomson/Datastream and World Bank.

Negative sign implies decline

in local currency vs euro

85.00

87.50

90.00

92.50

95.00

97.50

100.00

102.50

105.001.230

1.270

1.310

1.350

1.390

1.430

1.470

1.510

1.550

Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10

Source: Thomson/Datastream.yen/USD

USD/Euro (inverse)

Euro down 6.5% vs dollar in the month on Greek sovereign debt plight USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

February 18, 2010


Weights Average 2009 2009 2009 2009

2000 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct No v Dec

Wo rld 100.0 2.8 4.7 0.6 -8.0 -22.2 5.8 13.2 8.6 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.8

Hig h- inc o m e c o untrie s 77.2 1.4 2.6 -1.8 -12.8 -31.0 1.2 12.7 6.0 0.9 -0.1 0.7 0.6

Indus tria l co untries 72.7 1.4 2.8 -2.0 -13.0 -31.1 0.0 12.8 5.9 1.0 -0.2 0.7 0.4

United S ta tes 25.1 1.3 1.5 -2.2 -9.7 -19.0 -10.4 6.9 7.0 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.6

J apan 17.3 1.1 2.9 -3.2 -21.6 -61.6 34.0 32.2 19.2 2.0 0.5 2.2 1.9

Euro Area 22.9 1.2 3.5 -2.0 -14.8 -31.3 -6.1 12.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 -1.2

United Kindgo m 4.1 -0.4 0.3 -3.1 -10.2 -18.2 -2.0 -3.8 1.7 1.4 0.0 0.3 0.5

Other high inco me 4.5 2.1 5.2 1.1 -6.7 -16.2 9.3 15.5 3.4 2.4 -1.5 0.7 ..

Ho ng Ko ng (China) 0.2 .. -1.5 -6.6 -8.1 -9.6 -3.6 -7.7 .. -0.9 .. .. ..

S ingapo re 0.4 6.3 6.2 -4.0 -4.3 -24.0 75.6 19.4 -30.5 -9.2 0.0 -8.8 15.4

Taiwan (China) 1.1 4.7 8.1 -1.4 -9.0 -34.0 100.2 40.0 53.2 6.8 2.5 3.7 5.6

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s 22.8 -210.3 9.7 6.0 1.7 -2.3 14.8 14.0 13.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1

Eas t As ia and P ac ific 8.7 20.8 15.2 11.1 8.9 10.2 25.1 15.3 15.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.6

China 6.3 15.2 18.0 12.7 11.2 13.7 27.4 17.1 14.9 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.2

Indo nes ia 0.9 3.4 5.5 3.1 1.3 11.0 -0.2 -5.1 13.0 -2.9 3.4 1.6 0.7

Thailand 0.6 8.6 8.2 5.3 -5.2 -29.3 44.7 16.6 41.6 9.6 0.9 -0.3 10.4

Malays ia 0.5 5.8 1.2 0.9 -7.7 -13.1 5.6 10.4 10.4 -0.5 5.4 -3.9 1.3

Euro pe and Centra l As ia 3.2 5.1 7.2 1.2 -8.4 -16.4 4.8 14.4 15.3 1.0 1.4 3.1 -1.0

Rus s ian Federa tio n 1.0 5.5 6.3 2.3 -10.7 -22.3 -5.0 17.9 3.5 3.7 -4.0 6.0 -2.0

Turkey 0.5 3.7 6.9 -0.9 -9.7 -23.3 20.9 16.3 51.3 -6.4 14.8 0.2 ..

P o land 0.6 6.3 9.3 2.3 -4.4 -8.3 12.5 4.8 10.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 -2.8

Czech Republic 0.2 4.8 10.4 -2.1 -13.4 -24.3 2.2 14.6 4.9 -2.2 1.0 -1.4 ..

La tin America and Caribbean 6.2 1.5 4.2 0.7 -6.6 -17.3 2.4 10.5 8.8 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.6

Brazil 1.8 3.3 5.9 2.9 -7.3 -23.5 17.8 20.0 15.3 1.7 2.9 -0.8 -0.3

Mexico 1.7 .. 1.8 -0.9 -7.0 -20.2 -1.8 7.9 9.2 0.3 1.5 0.7 1.0

Argentina 0.8 2.7 7.3 0.7 -6.0 -11.5 17.6 6.8 2.7 -0.3 -0.9 2.7 ..

Co lo mbia 0.3 2.7 10.8 -3.1 -6.2 -4.1 -4.4 2.9 -0.1 3.1 -0.6 -0.6 ..

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa 1.9 1.6 -0.4 1.6 -1.1 -6.8 5.7 4.5 .. -0.2 0.4 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 1.2 1.0 -4.7 6.2 -11.0 -30.7 1.8 5.5 .. -0.8 0.9 .. ..

Iran 0.4 1.1 -2.9 3.6 -0.5 -9.9 7.0 -1.7 .. 0.1 0.1 .. ..

Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria .. 3.9 1.1 -0.5 -2.2 -11.1 0.9 12.4 .. -0.3 -0.2 .. ..

So uth As ia 1.6 6.8 9.1 4.1 5.5 2.0 15.9 20.5 12.0 0.7 0.0 1.4 3.0

India 1.3 6.7 9.8 4.4 6.6 4.3 15.7 21.2 11.6 1.0 -1.0 2.3 3.2

P akis tan 0.2 6.7 5.5 -0.6 -5.2 -20.4 12.7 16.7 14.1 -3.3 9.1 -6.9 ..

Banglades h 0.1 .. 5.6 8.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 .. 6.3 3.5 -7.3 -16.6 -4.6 11.7 8.9 0.8 0.8 .. ..

So uth Africa 0.4 2.5 4.6 0.9 -12.3 -22.6 -10.9 11.5 14.2 3.2 0.3 1.1 3.0

Nigeria 0.3 .. 0.2 1.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo :

OECD 75.9 1.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Develo ping exc l. China 16.6 3.5 5.3 1.9 -4.5 -12.4 6.1 11.7 11.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1

Develo ping o il expo rte rs 2.9 0.8 3.6 1.0 -5.8 -12.7 -1.2 7.5 5.5 0.6 0.1 2.0 0.3

Dev. no n-o il expo rte rs 19.9 -213.7 13.0 8.4 5.1 2.5 22.1 16.8 16.3 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.5

As ian high tech expo rte rs .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(co ns tant prices ; percent; s eas o nally adjus ted annual rates except m o nthly figures which are in percent change

o ver prev io us m o nth a/)

aIn genera l, s e ries re fe r to indus tria l pro ductio n exc luding co ns truc tio n (e .g. manufac turing, mining and utilitites ).

Where this is no t ava ilable the c lo s es t pro xy is us ed, o ften manufac turing o utput o r o il o utput, if the co untry is a

majo r o il pro ducer.

February 18, 2010




R e a l GD P a

Hig h- inc o m e c o untrie s 78.6 2.3 2.6 0.3 .. -8.8 0.5 2.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Indus tria l co untries 75.4 2.3 2.5 0.3 .. -7.9 0.0 2.0 .. .. .. .. ..

United S ta tes 11.0 2.6 2.1 0.4 .. -6.4 -0.7 2.2 5.7 .. .. .. ..

J apan 20.6 1.3 2.3 -1.2 .. -11.9 5.2 0.0 4.6 .. .. .. ..

Euro Area 27.2 2.0 2.7 0.5 .. -9.3 -0.5 1.7 0.3 .. .. .. ..

United Kindgo m 6.5 2.6 2.6 0.5 .. -9.7 -2.7 -0.6 0.4 .. .. .. ..

Other high inco me 3.2 4.3 6.1 1.8 .. -30.4 17.2 24.5 .. .. .. .. ..

Ho ng Ko ng (China) 0.7 .. 6.4 2.4 .. -38.1 7.4 34.0 .. .. .. .. ..

S ingapo re 0.4 5.6 7.8 1.2 .. -12.2 21.7 14.2 .. .. .. .. ..

Ta iwan (China) 1.4 3.8 6.0 0.7 .. -39.6 29.2 32.7 .. .. .. .. ..

R e a l m e rc ha ndis e im po rts b

Hig h- inc o m e c o untrie s 100.0 .. 9.5 2.4 -15.9 -36.8 1.8 40.3 30.2 8.7 -0.8 2.1 3.3

Indus tria l co untries 88.3 .. 9.5 2.1 -16.3 -35.8 -0.7 41.9 29.7 9.2 -0.9 1.9 3.2

United S ta tes 23.8 8.2 1.1 -3.7 -16.6 -41.5 -16.3 22.5 11.9 9.1 -4.1 2.1 4.3

J apan 6.7 5.2 -0.1 13.4 -4.5 -49.6 -5.3 .. .. 16.1 -7.1 2.3 2.6

Euro Area 37.1 .. 13.9 6.4 -15.0 -29.2 2.4 49.3 36.8 8.8 0.8 1.2 2.5

United Kindgo m 6.7 6.3 10.5 -9.9 -34.1 -46.7 8.7 22.5 -76.6 6.7 0.0 0.6 ..

Other high inco me 11.7 5.5 17.0 3.2 -19.7 -34.2 14.2 47.7 47.0 5.6 -0.1 3.5 3.9

Ho ng Ko ng (China) 4.1 6.6 10.2 2.9 -9.8 -43.8 31.9 16.9 36.2 6.7 1.8 0.2 3.5

Singapo re 2.3 5.2 6.3 9.7 -12.7 -34.7 -5.3 23.1 7.4 6.3 -4.9 1.3 ..

Ta iwan (China) 2.2 6.2 -1.2 0.1 -19.3 -57.4 78.3 .. .. 1.1 2.5 8.0 4.2

Im po rt P ric e s c

Hig h- inc o m e c o untrie s 100.0 .. 2.9 9.3 -10.0 -21.9 -7.8 -1.9 7.9 -0.5 1.6 0.0 1.1

Indus tria l co untries 88.3 .. 2.5 9.1 -10.6 -21.7 -8.7 -3.5 7.2 -0.8 1.8 -0.2 1.2

United S ta tes 23.8 -0.1 4.3 11.4 -11.4 -23.5 1.4 6.5 31.9 0.3 4.3 1.0 3.9

J apan 6.7 -1.4 7.5 8.7 -24.8 -38.8 -13.4 -11.1 31.5 -7.2 8.9 3.1 0.7

Euro Area 37.1 .. 1.7 5.0 -10.8 -19.1 -9.9 -7.9 -2.3 -0.1 0.2 -1.0 0.3

United Kindgo m 6.7 -1.1 1.1 13.2 2.7 3.0 -3.6 3.6 7.6 1.2 1.6 -1.4 ..

Other high inco me 11.7 -1.0 0.9 12.4 -7.0 -19.3 -17.0 -2.4 -3.7 1.6 0.8 1.1 0.4

Ho ng Ko ng (China) 4.1 -1.2 -0.3 3.0 -1.4 -7.4 0.4 2.4 3.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8

Singapo re 2.3 -0.3 3.6 10.5 -11.8 -21.3 7.7 22.2 41.8 2.4 2.9 4.6 0.3

Taiwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 9.0 8.8 -9.5 -18.7 -1.0 13.7 24.0 -0.5 2.4 4.5 -3.1

R e a l e f fe c t iv e e xc ha ng e ra te s d

Euro Area 33.5 1.3 4.1 4.2 -5.0 -6.5 -8.5 -5.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 -3.9 -1.6

United S ta tes 14.4 -1.1 -4.6 -3.7 10.8 19.6 18.7 11.7 -4.5 -1.4 -2.0 0.2 1.8

J apan 7.4 -1.2 -6.6 9.8 13.7 24.5 16.3 18.3 -1.4 2.7 -0.3 1.2 1.8

United Kindgo m 5.4 -2.4 2.1 -12.0 -8.2 -17.1 -9.9 -6.1 1.4 -2.4 -1.6 3.7 -0.6

Canada 3.5 -0.6 0.8 -8.3 -7.6 -20.5 -12.8 -5.1 11.7 0.2 2.8 0.7 1.7

Ho ng Ko ng (China) 3.5 -2.7 -4.7 -5.5 6.7 7.3 9.8 8.6 1.6 -0.9 1.3 0.6 1.7

Ko rea , Rep. 2.5 -1.7 -2.0 -15.9 -13.3 -27.1 -16.7 -14.5 11.1 1.0 2.2 0.9 -1.5

Singapo re 2.3 1.3 6.9 4.6 -9.2 -3.9 -9.5 -12.2 -10.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 -3.3

Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.3 -1.3 -4.2 -9.3 -10.6 -11.9 -10.1 -4.1 -0.3 -0.8 0.4 -4.4

Switzerland 1.7 0.0 -4.9 2.2 9.1 7.7 8.9 11.5 8.5 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.5

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US do llar values unles s o therwis e indicated; percent change; s eas o nally adjus ted annual rates except m o nthly

figures , which are m /m change)

a / Rea l GDP aggrega ted us ing 1995 weights .

b/ On a cus to ms o r Bo P bas is , as ava ilable . Weights a re 1995 merchandis e impo rt: aggrega te ca lcula ted as s um

o f co mpo nents .

c / Aggrega te prices a re implic it prices o f aggrega te US do lla r va lue divided by aggrega te co ns tant 1995 do lla r

vo lume.

d/ J P Mo rgan Trade Weighted Indices (Rea l, Bro ad bas is ). Data a re averages o f mo nthly da ta fo r the perio d in

ques tio n.

February 18, 2010


Weights Average 2009 2009 2009 2009 Lates t

2000 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 No v Dec J an 16-Feb

P o lic y R a te s

United S ta tes .. 3.44 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11

J apan .. 0.33 0.70 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30

Euro Area .. .. 3.84 3.89 1.28 1.99 1.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

United Kindgo m .. 4.80 5.51 4.67 0.65 1.09 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Te n ye a r bo nd

United S ta tes .. 4.70 4.63 3.66 2.67 2.67 3.25 3.51 3.42 3.43 3.48 3.66 3.66

J apan .. 1.49 1.67 1.49 1.34 1.28 1.43 1.34 1.31 1.37 1.24 1.27 1.27

Euro Area .. .. 4.20 4.00 3.25 3.12 3.35 3.33 3.22 3.26 3.16 3.31 3.31

United Kindgo m .. 4.77 5.01 4.52 3.65 3.48 3.56 3.79 3.77 3.80 3.87 4.01 4.01

S pre a ds (B a s is po ints )b, c

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Eas t As ia and P ac ific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China .. 82 71 166 126 184 134 111 76 85 61 53 103

Indo nes ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Tha iland .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malays ia .. 129 87 201 230 352 243 166 160 166 149 143 157

Euro pe and Centra l As ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Rus s ian Federa tio n .. 262 121 328 443 694 453 378 245 249 229 206 227

Turkey .. 404 214 383 367 537 380 306 244 247 225 214 240

P o land .. 99 61 159 222 311 250 185 142 156 134 146 167

Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

La tin America and Caribbean .. 522 187 400 463 662 493 385 314 323 300 282 296

Brazil .. 551 180 301 306 431 324 254 216 219 202 205 228

Mexico .. 206 126 254 302 436 312 246 212 211 202 196 208

Argentina .. 2920 320 858 1198 1696 1458 922 716 725 718 710 784

Co lo mbia .. 370 161 305 329 489 346 270 213 214 208 210 243

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa .. .. 96 277 286 433 317 208 184 197 201 171 185

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. .. 86 262 134 251 133 97 57 92 31 28 97

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

So uth As ia d

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

P akis tan .. .. 283 1040 1186 1943 1340 841 620 598 659 684 695

Banglades h .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

So uth Africa .. 172 100 329 301 461 333 223 187 206 176 175 200

Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gro s s inf lo ws e

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s .. .. 149 211 353 48 62 99 144 41 47 33 ..

Eas t As ia and P ac ific .. .. 41 49 91 15 19 22 34 14 12 8 ..

Euro pe and Centra l As ia .. .. 35 64 72 6 16 21 30 10 8 13 ..

La tin America and Carribean .. .. 45 65 137 21 16 37 63 11 21 8 ..

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa .. .. 15 11 4 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 ..

So uth As ia .. .. 3 7 31 3 7 11 10 3 3 3 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 10 16 17 1 4 7 4 2 2 .. ..

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unles s o therwis e indicated a/)

a /Mo nthly figures a re s imple averages o f the da ily figures , except the las t mo nth, which a re the va lues repo rted o n the

mentio ned da te . Quarte rly and Annual figures a re s imple averages o f the mo nthly figures .

b/Average va lues fo r Spreads a re fo r the perio d 1996-2003.

c /Aggrega tes as defined by J P Mo rgan.

d/Eas t As ia and P ac ific inc luding So uth As ian co untries .

e /In billio ns o f US do lla rs .

February 18, 2010


Weightsb

Average 2009 2009 2010

2000 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 No v Dec J an

Ene rg y 100.00 .. 244.8 342.0 214.3 166.3 204.5 230.3 256.0 261.5 256.5 267.5

Co al, Aus tra lia 4.70 15.8 250.4 484.2 273.3 274.0 253.3 271.7 294.4 300.2 312.4 369.5

Crude o il, average 84.60 22.2 251.9 343.6 218.8 156.3 209.7 241.6 267.5 274.7 265.3 273.2

Natura l gas , Euro pe 10.80 18.7 221.7 347.5 225.7 309.5 212.1 179.0 202.3 202.4 207.6 228.1

N o n-e ne rg y 100.00 .. 224.7 272.0 213.1 189.9 207.8 219.8 235.1 235.3 241.7 248.9

A g ric ulture 64.80 .. 180.3 229.5 197.7 181.9 197.1 199.5 212.4 213.2 217.3 222.1

B e v e ra g e s 8.40 .. 169.9 210.0 219.9 197.9 207.3 226.4 248.0 245.4 252.6 252.7

Co co a 3.10 4.4 215.5 284.5 319.0 286.4 284.7 327.2 377.5 373.7 388.0 389.0

Co ffee , a rabica 3.00 0.3 141.9 160.5 165.2 147.9 166.8 168.1 178.0 174.8 181.6 182.5

Co ffee , ro bus ta 0.80 2.4 209.1 254.2 180.1 192.6 181.0 175.3 171.3 167.8 168.7 169.2

F o o d 40.00 .. 184.7 247.4 205.0 190.4 209.8 206.4 213.5 215.3 217.4 221.1

F a ts a nd o ils 16.30 .. 209.0 277.3 216.2 191.4 227.9 220.9 224.5 225.6 231.0 230.6

P alm o il 4.90 3.5 251.5 305.7 220.1 186.1 239.5 218.7 235.9 233.7 255.0 256.2

So ybean meal 4.30 9.6 163.0 224.4 215.5 192.7 224.0 227.7 217.7 223.1 212.0 214.1

So ybeans 4.00 8.0 181.3 246.8 206.3 186.0 217.5 214.3 207.4 207.7 212.9 206.3

Gra ins 11.20 .. 189.0 281.7 214.9 221.3 225.3 202.3 210.8 214.3 217.0 214.0

Maize 4.60 8.1 184.9 252.0 186.9 188.5 198.8 170.9 189.6 193.9 185.9 189.0

Rice , Tha iland, 5% 3.40 7.9 161.3 321.2 274.2 289.7 272.9 266.3 267.9 268.2 292.0 282.2

Wheat, US, HRW 2.80 10.0 223.7 285.8 196.4 203.0 219.6 183.0 180.0 185.0 180.8 176.3

Othe r fo o d 12.40 .. 149.0 177.1 181.5 161.3 172.1 191.2 201.4 202.7 199.8 215.2

Bananas , US 1.90 5.6 159.4 199.1 199.8 210.2 202.4 194.9 191.6 196.6 187.2 185.2

Sugar, wo rld 3.90 0.6 123.2 156.5 221.4 160.0 188.0 260.6 277.0 272.2 281.8 197.5

R a w m a te ria ls 16.50 .. 174.9 195.7 168.7 153.1 161.1 168.9 191.7 191.8 199.4 208.7

Co tto n ("A" Index) 1.90 0.9 107.1 120.9 106.2 92.8 101.7 109.0 121.3 121.1 129.9 130.9

Rubber, S ingapo re 3.70 13.6 339.2 387.6 287.9 218.9 249.4 298.8 384.5 381.0 419.9 463.4

Sawnwo o d, Malays ia 6.70 6.3 135.6 149.5 135.5 136.8 139.5 129.7 135.8 138.1 133.8 133.3

F e rt ilize rs 3.60 .. 240.1 566.7 293.0 376.6 300.6 252.1 242.8 242.2 243.5 255.2

Triple s uperpho s phate 0.70 17.7 246.2 638.6 186.9 233.6 179.8 163.1 171.1 165.9 168.5 215.1

M e ta ls a nd m ine ra ls 31.60 .. 314.0 325.7 235.6 185.0 219.0 257.6 280.8 279.8 291.4 303.4

Aluminum 8.40 6.6 170.3 166.1 107.5 87.8 95.9 117.0 129.3 125.8 140.7 144.3

Co pper 12.10 15.4 392.5 383.6 284.0 189.1 257.1 323.1 366.6 368.1 385.0 407.3

Go ld .. 11.5 249.7 312.4 348.7 325.6 330.3 344.1 394.8 403.9 406.7 400.7

Nicke l 2.50 16.4 431.0 244.4 169.7 121.2 149.6 204.9 202.9 196.7 197.6 213.5

Memo :

C rude Oil (US $ ) .. 22.2 71.1 97.0 61.8 44.1 59.2 68.2 75.5 77.6 74.9 77.1

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US do llar index,index unles s o therwis e indicated; a/)

a / The Wo rld Bank primary co mmo dity price indices a re co mputed fro m 1987-89 expo rt va lues in US do lla rs fo r lo w-

and middle-inco me eco no mies , rebas ed to 1990.

b/ Energy and go ld prices a re no t inc luded in the index.

February 18, 2010




Export values

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s 100.0 11.1 19.8 20.9 -22.4 -54.7 7.8 31.9 73.1 8.1 4.3 1.7 10.6

Eas t As ia and P ac ific 36.3 18.5 22.0 16.7 -16.3 -49.8 3.7 26.8 76.6 7.1 5.8 -0.7 14.7

China 16.7 22.8 26.3 17.4 -16.3 -54.5 3.3 25.0 72.3 8.8 3.3 0.1 16.7

Indo nes ia 4.2 .. 13.2 20.2 -15.3 -51.4 37.1 44.8 143.6 -1.7 19.9 -3.4 14.4

Thailand 4.6 12.6 18.6 15.8 -14.3 -19.2 -10.1 41.8 56.0 9.3 1.3 -1.3 14.5

Euro pe and Centra l As ia 20.7 18.9 22.0 29.2 -29.3 -61.7 10.1 53.3 79.3 11.2 4.4 2.4 5.4

Rus s ian Federa tio n 7.1 20.3 16.4 33.9 -36.0 -77.8 30.6 54.6 106.1 9.3 3.9 8.8 5.5

Turkey 1.8 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

P o land 2.1 19.7 26.5 21.9 -21.2 -35.2 20.6 43.1 48.9 8.5 3.3 -0.6 7.7

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 8.3 13.2 11.8 -20.2 -46.4 15.3 7.7 68.2 8.3 0.5 7.6 7.7

Brazil 3.7 14.5 16.9 22.7 -22.3 -61.8 41.7 -21.2 41.5 4.1 0.2 3.6 12.4

Mexico 11.2 9.5 8.7 7.4 -21.2 -44.9 -1.2 24.3 92.8 10.5 0.0 11.2 6.9

Argentina 1.8 10.2 20.0 25.8 -20.5 -29.7 37.9 -33.1 33.4 10.5 -0.9 11.8 -5.5

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa 8.3 21.8 16.2 37.1 -55.1 -74.4 15.3 45.4 .. 4.2 .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 21.7 6.5 43.5 -57.8 -83.7 12.6 71.2 .. 21.5 .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. 17.9 30.3 -55.8 -82.0 27.3 95.7 .. 1.8 .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 23.3 18.5 56.5 -35.6 -7.0 41.5 36.0 .. -1.2 .. .. ..

So uth As ia 4.3 15.8 20.3 26.3 -19.1 -34.7 -15.7 41.1 60.0 8.8 3.1 2.4 3.7

India 2.8 18.4 24.4 28.9 -19.7 -31.4 -17.9 43.3 59.2 9.5 1.7 4.0 2.5

P akis tan 0.6 9.1 2.6 15.4 -12.0 -41.3 3.3 36.4 52.2 3.7 12.8 -7.9 3.5

Banglades h 0.4 11.6 8.3 23.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 16.8 20.1 27.9 -51.4 -69.5 30.9 64.8 .. 7.8 .. .. ..

So uth Africa 2.0 11.8 21.0 15.3 -22.4 -42.6 0.6 32.6 73.8 15.3 1.8 1.8 10.6

Nigeria 1.4 21.0 15.6 29.7 -59.2 -88.7 150.9 37.7 .. 8.1 .. .. ..

Export prices b,c

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s 100.0 .. 5.7 18.4 -15.8 -38.0 -15.3 -7.6 -0.3 0.7 0.6 -2.1 -0.7

Eas t As ia and P ac ific 36.3 .. 5.8 9.8 -7.8 -27.1 -3.7 1.7 2.3 0.6 0.7 -1.2 0.2

China 16.7 0.0 5.6 8.2 -6.8 -25.1 -2.4 0.4 -1.6 0.2 0.2 -1.0 -0.3

Indo nes ia 4.2 .. 7.9 20.8 -21.5 -43.1 -20.7 9.3 15.6 4.3 1.0 -3.5 2.0

Thailand 4.6 5.7 6.6 9.4 0.4 -11.4 9.0 13.5 22.2 0.4 2.5 1.0 3.4

Euro pe and Centra l As ia 20.7 .. 5.5 27.4 -22.5 -47.7 -31.5 -18.6 -0.3 0.9 0.9 -3.3 0.2

Rus s ian Federa tio n 7.1 .. 3.9 43.4 -29.9 -54.2 -54.8 -37.6 -2.9 -0.3 0.2 -3.5 1.9

Turkey 1.8 3.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

P o land 2.1 -0.9 5.7 11.1 -9.0 -28.1 -6.4 1.0 -7.1 0.2 0.5 -2.8 -1.4

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 1.0 7.1 18.2 -16.4 -36.6 -10.6 -0.5 -7.1 1.6 0.0 -3.0 -4.2

Brazil 3.7 5.4 7.6 23.2 -14.1 -35.5 -7.6 4.0 -11.2 0.7 1.4 -7.0 -2.7

Mexico 11.2 5.8 4.6 16.2 -13.1 -37.6 -18.9 -14.2 -1.9 0.3 0.4 -1.1 -1.0

Argentina 1.8 5.3 18.0 32.1 -23.1 -35.4 -11.3 -6.4 2.3 -2.3 2.7 -4.7 1.4

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa 8.3 .. 3.7 46.6 -33.8 -61.6 -54.3 -41.7 .. -1.9 .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 23.8 5.9 54.1 -49.5 -93.6 -17.7 141.4 .. -4.5 .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. 1.4 53.5 -31.0 -61.5 -71.3 -50.7 .. 0.0 .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 .. 4.2 32.5 -21.7 -48.7 -45.2 -20.9 .. 1.2 .. .. ..

So uth As ia 4.3 2.4 5.9 17.7 -10.5 -32.1 -11.6 -5.2 -5.3 0.2 0.3 -2.8 -0.2

India 2.8 4.3 5.9 18.4 -12.5 -36.4 -12.6 -4.4 -6.7 0.3 0.2 -3.3 -0.5

P akis tan 0.6 0.5 4.1 30.7 3.0 -1.5 -18.3 -21.8 8.2 -0.5 -1.1 2.8 2.2

Banglades h 0.4 -6.7 5.5 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 4.8 35.4 -25.3 -54.1 -41.3 -30.1 .. 1.9 .. .. ..

So uth Africa 2.0 6.9 8.4 22.4 -15.4 -33.1 -17.1 1.9 4.3 2.3 4.1 -7.3 -1.4

Nigeria 1.4 .. 1.2 55.4 -31.7 -63.0 -71.4 -56.3 .. 1.6 .. .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth(US do llar values unles s o therwis e indicated; percent change; s eas o nally adjus ted annual rates except m o nthly

figures , which are m /m change /a)

/a Merchandis e expo rt (F .O.B), cus to ms bas is .

/b Implic it expo rt unit va lues , U.S . Do lla r bas is .

/c In many cas es co untries a re very la te in repo rting trade prices . To es timate mo re timely figures individua l

trade prices were upda ted us ing the median (mean) regio na l trade price fo r deve lo ping (deve lo ped) co untries

February 18, 2010


Weights Average 2009 2009 2009


Import values

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s 100.0 15.8 21.8 25.3 -20.9 -58.0 18.3 35.8 72.9 8.1 2.2 4.6 12.1

Eas t As ia and P ac ific 35.2 18.7 18.7 21.1 -15.4 -56.7 65.8 42.1 86.0 9.9 3.2 2.9 16.9

China 19.3 23.2 20.7 18.7 -11.7 -53.8 89.5 37.3 88.8 11.1 2.1 2.8 20.3

Indo nes ia 2.1 16.8 21.9 73.1 -24.8 -72.7 21.8 78.6 99.1 -3.8 13.1 -0.2 15.1

Thailand 4.2 15.5 8.6 27.8 -25.1 -71.8 12.0 73.2 88.9 20.7 -2.8 5.3 15.5

Euro pe and Centra l As ia 24.1 17.2 30.3 26.3 -31.8 -64.4 -6.6 39.1 62.7 10.5 1.5 3.6 3.9

Rus s ian Federa tio n 3.9 17.5 36.4 32.1 -34.7 -73.6 -9.9 20.3 59.0 12.5 0.6 5.3 -0.5

Turkey 3.2 16.0 21.9 19.1 -30.5 -52.3 2.8 50.4 64.7 1.8 5.7 1.7 11.0

P o land 3.6 16.1 30.4 26.4 -29.9 -56.2 1.4 43.6 39.7 4.5 2.1 1.7 3.5

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 10.1 19.0 22.1 -24.6 -57.9 -15.2 23.7 42.4 9.9 -5.1 9.1 10.8

Brazil 3.2 11.6 31.9 43.5 -25.9 -67.3 -17.4 30.6 85.4 18.5 -2.1 5.8 14.1

Mexico 11.6 9.4 10.1 9.8 -24.2 -55.4 -10.8 36.9 51.2 9.6 -6.4 13.9 8.3

Argentina 0.6 6.2 30.6 28.7 -32.3 -72.6 6.5 14.6 69.1 10.3 -1.1 7.3 11.3

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa 6.9 14.7 23.0 44.7 -33.4 -40.5 14.1 12.0 .. 1.7 .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 14.4 29.2 24.9 -35.7 -54.3 24.4 45.6 .. 6.9 .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 17.1 10.9 55.1 -37.6 -69.4 42.7 44.5 .. 3.6 .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 11.7 31.6 77.8 -31.9 -38.2 -31.7 59.7 .. -8.1 .. .. ..

So uth As ia 5.5 19.0 21.3 38.7 -24.5 -68.2 13.5 52.4 95.7 -1.7 7.3 7.4 12.7

India 3.7 21.3 24.6 42.6 -25.8 -73.6 17.6 64.6 109.7 -2.8 8.2 9.4 11.8

P akis tan 0.7 16.5 9.4 24.8 -22.3 -46.3 65.0 -10.7 37.3 3.7 4.4 -4.1 16.4

Banglades h 0.5 12.3 15.4 28.9 -33.3 0.5 -38.9 29.9 .. -2.5 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 14.9 21.6 23.9 -38.9 -45.4 -7.7 34.2 .. 5.7 .. .. ..

So uth Africa 1.9 13.2 17.8 11.7 -27.2 -37.4 -36.3 42.3 97.2 14.3 1.8 6.7 2.8

Nigeria 0.5 21.8 33.5 37.4 -34.2 -54.1 20.2 38.5 .. 10.6 .. .. ..

Import prices b,c

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s 100.0 .. 5.1 15.1 -11.2 -30.2 -12.7 -6.8 -2.1 -0.1 0.5 -2.0 0.0

Eas t As ia and P ac ific 35.2 .. 4.7 16.3 -12.6 -38.1 -14.3 -9.9 1.4 0.3 0.7 -1.8 0.3

China 19.3 .. 5.7 17.1 -13.8 -44.4 -11.9 -9.2 2.8 0.3 1.0 -1.6 -0.4

Indo nes ia 2.1 .. 4.7 27.9 -20.4 -41.5 -40.2 -21.6 -11.4 0.2 -1.1 -2.9 -1.0

Thailand 4.2 3.9 -4.0 8.7 0.3 6.0 -5.1 -3.8 11.8 1.1 0.3 1.1 2.3

Euro pe and Centra l As ia 24.1 .. 4.0 7.8 -8.6 -20.4 -0.5 0.2 -12.7 -1.3 0.7 -4.3 -0.7

Rus s ian Federa tio n 3.9 1.7 4.7 10.4 -7.5 -25.4 -1.8 2.4 -5.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -2.5

Turkey 3.2 5.2 11.0 -1.0 -13.6 -22.6 36.7 30.3 16.0 -1.2 1.9 -1.0 9.8

P o land 3.6 -0.2 -1.7 -0.5 6.7 24.2 7.5 -10.3 -43.4 -5.5 0.7 -12.5 -6.0

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 4.1 6.3 14.2 -9.4 -22.0 -13.6 -1.3 5.1 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.9

Brazil 3.2 5.6 8.3 21.9 -10.4 -23.3 -23.1 0.8 19.0 1.2 1.9 1.0 2.9

Mexico 11.6 3.3 5.4 8.4 -3.6 -8.8 -6.3 1.5 8.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 1.1

Argentina 0.6 1.8 6.6 11.0 -12.3 -24.9 -16.8 0.1 5.0 -3.5 -0.4 3.7 0.0

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa 6.9 .. 6.5 18.7 -11.0 -24.0 -17.7 -5.8 .. -1.0 .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 5.6 11.7 -7.3 -26.3 -3.7 2.3 .. 0.6 .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 .. 5.9 20.2 -12.6 -35.6 -20.5 -7.4 .. 0.2 .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 .. 7.8 17.7 -13.7 -30.3 -9.1 -8.5 .. -0.5 .. .. ..

So uth As ia 5.5 2.3 6.7 29.8 -18.6 -43.0 -28.3 -18.8 0.9 1.4 0.4 -1.4 -1.9

India 3.7 3.3 5.5 30.0 -19.2 -42.1 -36.5 -18.2 4.0 1.3 1.2 -1.1 -3.1

P akis tan 0.7 9.6 11.3 48.3 -14.1 -49.2 -9.1 -26.3 -10.8 3.8 -7.1 -1.6 7.8

Banglades h 0.5 -6.2 6.5 17.3 -11.0 -29.9 -9.7 -3.5 .. -1.3 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 5.2 16.6 -11.0 -33.5 -17.2 -6.5 .. 0.4 .. .. ..

So uth Africa 1.9 5.8 5.6 13.3 -9.8 -33.6 -15.0 -4.4 11.5 0.5 1.4 0.9 -1.3

Nigeria 0.5 .. 4.9 15.9 -10.5 -33.7 -13.4 -5.0 .. 0.7 .. .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth(US do llar values unles s o therwis e indicated; percent change; s eas o nally adjus ted annual rates except m o nthly

figures , which are m /m change /a)

/a Merchandis e impo rt (C.I.F .), cus to ms bas is .

/b Implic it impo rt unit va lues , U.S . Do lla r bas is .

/c In many cas es co untries a re very la te in repo rting trade prices . To es timate mo re timely figures individua l trade

prices were upda ted us ing the median (mean) regio na l trade price fo r deve lo ping (deve lo ped) co untries whenever

60% o r mo re o f repo rte rs by trade weight repo rted.

February 18, 2010


US$ bn. % GDP 2009 2009 2009 2009

2008 2008 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct No v Dec

Wo rld -168.7 -0.3 -156.7 -275.3 -115.5 -237.2 -52.8 -88.9 -83.0 -123.0 72.6 -132.1 -189.4

Hig h- inc o m e c o untrie s a

-418.9 -1.0 -426.0 -437.6 -172.1 -362.0 -100.7 -113.2 -112.6 -167.2 -54.1 -143.1 -140.5

Indus tria l co untries -499.8 -1.2 -612.0 -704.3 -274.4 -442.4 -203.8 -212.9 -238.4 -273.0 -189.3 -262.7 -263.2

United S ta tes -706.1 -5.0 -870.7 -881.2 -546.0 -545.7 -500.5 -541.4 -596.5 -582.6 -554.5 -596.2 -638.8

J apan 183.2 3.7 91.7 21.4 29.7 -33.4 32.9 53.7 65.5 52.0 85.1 53.7 57.6

Euro Area -19.6 -0.2 53.1 -2.2 60.4 -10.0 82.8 82.6 86.0 66.1 87.7 83.0 87.2

United Kindgo m -73.6 -2.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Other high inco me 80.9 4.2 256.4 283.1 314.3 270.6 318.3 322.2 346.2 331.4 324.2 341.0 373.4

Ho ng Ko ng (China) 30.5 12.8 -23.4 -26.2 -28.9 -19.2 -18.6 -37.4 -40.3 -42.0 -40.7 -37.4 -42.9

Singapo re 26.9 13.9 36.3 18.7 24.0 13.9 24.0 23.9 34.2 18.6 32.6 35.9 34.1

Taiwan (China) 24.9 6.0 26.6 15.6 28.1 37.8 29.9 27.0 17.4 25.1 23.8 16.4 12.0

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s 293.5 1.8 269.3 162.3 56.7 124.8 47.9 24.4 29.6 44.2 126.7 11.0 -48.9

Eas t As ia and P ac ific 469.7 9.6 333.7 326.2 256.6 382.3 231.2 202.4 210.5 200.7 253.9 193.2 184.4

China 426.1 11.5 262.5 296.0 195.9 302.7 171.1 157.0 152.6 159.5 178.0 148.1 131.7

Indo nes ia 0.6 0.1 39.6 8.2 19.3 15.5 19.3 16.1 26.2 18.0 28.4 23.8 26.4

Thailand -0.1 0.0 14.0 -0.6 18.8 28.0 20.8 16.0 10.4 10.8 17.1 7.3 6.8

Malays ia 38.9 19.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Euro pe and Centra l As ia .. .. -53.7 -44.9 -5.0 -38.9 -11.7 4.9 25.7 4.7 27.5 18.5 31.0

Rus s ian Federa tio n 102.4 6.0 131.2 179.9 111.2 73.3 95.8 118.9 156.7 125.1 136.8 155.9 177.3

Turkey -41.3 -5.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

P o land -29.0 -5.6 -25.4 -38.4 -12.0 -15.8 -10.5 -11.6 -10.2 -11.3 -9.8 -13.3 -7.5

Czech Republic -6.6 -3.0 4.4 4.1 8.2 3.1 8.3 10.9 10.5 10.4 12.6 8.8 10.0

Latin America and Caribbean -21.6 -0.5 -2.5 -74.1 -21.2 -51.4 -5.2 -26.9 -1.2 -25.3 11.6 3.0 -18.1

Brazil -28.2 -1.7 40.4 24.6 25.3 21.6 40.4 23.3 15.8 14.4 17.6 15.3 14.7

Mexico -15.8 -1.6 -10.0 -17.6 -4.7 -9.7 -4.0 -9.8 4.8 -6.5 9.4 4.2 0.8

Argentina 7.6 2.6 11.2 12.8 16.9 17.8 21.7 14.8 13.4 13.9 13.8 17.3 9.1

Co lo mbia -6.7 -3.0 -2.9 -2.1 3.1 -0.8 0.0 -0.7 13.8 1.8 2.4 2.1 ..

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa .. .. 60.9 67.2 -37.3 -53.5 -54.7 -40.9 .. -31.9 .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 117.9 186.1 53.2 66.6 66.2 80.1 .. 100.9 .. .. ..

Iran 0.0 0.0 50.0 53.9 11.1 12.9 12.1 19.3 .. 15.5 .. .. ..

Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -10.8 -22.7 -16.4 -24.7 -18.8 -22.1 .. -18.3 .. .. ..

Algeria 0.0 0.0 31.9 39.8 3.0 4.7 0.5 6.8 .. 13.6 .. .. ..

So uth As ia .. -91.1 -149.9 -100.4 -73.9 -90.0 -103.7 -133.9 -93.8 -109.4 -128.1 -164.0

India .. .. -65.4 -113.8 -72.6 -47.2 -62.5 -76.3 -104.3 -67.1 -83.4 -100.6 -129.0

P akis tan -15.7 -9.8 -15.4 -20.9 -14.1 -12.3 -16.0 -13.8 -14.4 -13.7 -12.7 -13.0 -17.5

Banglades h .. .. -4.2 -6.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. -3.6 -5.8 -1.2 -2.8 -2.0 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 22.2 37.8 -18.2 -39.9 -21.6 -11.4 .. -10.2 .. .. ..

So uth Africa -21.0 -7.5 -9.7 -8.3 -2.2 -6.3 0.7 -0.4 -2.7 -2.1 -2.2 -5.7 -0.3

Nigeria 20.3 9.3 27.6 32.8 0.0 -5.3 2.6 2.8 .. 2.4 .. .. ..

M em o :

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Develo ping exc l. China .. .. 6.9 -133.8 -139.2 -178.0 -123.2 -132.7 -123.0 -115.3 -51.3 -137.1 -180.6

Develo ping o il expo rte rs 191.2 .. 276.2 313.8 127.0 67.1 107.8 131.7 201.6 147.2 209.0 191.0 204.8

Develo ping no n-o il expo rte rs .. .. -6.8 -151.6 -70.4 57.7 -59.9 -107.3 -172.0 -103.0 -82.3 -180.0 -253.7

As ian high tech expo rte rs .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(B illio n US do llars ; annual rates )

a / Seas o na lly adjus ted

CAB

February 18, 2010


WeightsAverage

Levelb 2009 2009 2009 2010 Lates t


Wo rld 100.0 94.0 5.8 3.5 -6.0 -13.8 -12.4 -6.0 8.2 0.7 -1.4 -1.1 -2.3

Hig h- inc o m e c o untrie s 78.3 .. 6.1 3.9 -4.9 -13.2 -11.8 -4.3 10.1 0.7 -1.6 -1.0 -2.4

Indus tria l co untries 70.6 .. 7.0 4.1 -5.2 -14.4 -12.8 -4.5 11.5 0.9 -1.9 -1.2 -2.7

United S ta tes (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 4.0 3.2 -2.4 -6.5 -6.6 -1.7 5.6 0.6 -1.2 -1.0 -1.5

J apan 7.4 112.0 -1.2 13.9 10.4 12.3 7.4 15.0 7.0 1.3 -1.0 -1.3 1.4

Euro Area 29.5 .. 9.1 6.9 -5.0 -13.1 -12.9 -4.7 12.2 0.6 -2.3 -2.1 -3.7

United Kindgo m 5.6 0.6 8.7 -8.1 -15.3 -27.7 -21.5 -14.0 4.3 2.5 -2.3 -0.3 -2.7

Other high inco me 7.7 101.4 0.4 2.6 -2.2 -3.3 -4.0 -2.2 0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.4 -0.3

Ho ng Ko ng (China) 3.7 7.8 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1

Singapo re 2.3 1.6 5.4 6.5 -2.7 -6.8 -7.2 -2.9 6.7 0.6 -0.6 0.0 -1.4

Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.0 -0.9 4.1 -4.6 -7.2 -8.1 -4.9 2.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 -0.6

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s 21.7 115.5 4.8 2.3 -9.3 -15.4 -14.0 -10.6 2.8 0.5 -0.5 -1.6 -1.8

Eas t As ia and P ac ific 7.5 100.4 5.6 4.0 -2.8 -7.0 -5.7 -3.2 4.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 -0.5

China 2.7 7.9 4.8 9.5 1.7 4.8 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Indo nes ia 1.1 9360.6 0.2 -5.8 -6.7 -20.5 -11.8 -7.5 16.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 -0.9

Thailand 1.3 38.9 9.7 3.6 -2.9 -8.3 -7.0 -0.3 4.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 -0.4

Malays ia 1.4 3.7 6.7 3.0 -5.4 -11.0 -9.5 -5.1 4.8 0.4 -0.7 1.0 -1.4

Euro pe and Centra l As ia 4.3 94.5 8.2 6.0 -18.5 -24.5 -24.8 -20.3 -3.4 1.1 -2.5 -0.5 -2.2

Rus s ian Federa tio n 1.5 28.6 6.3 2.9 -21.7 -28.6 -26.7 -22.5 -7.5 1.7 -3.7 0.6 -1.2

Turkey .. 1.3 9.6 0.1 -16.1 -27.4 -19.6 -19.3 3.2 -1.4 -1.0 2.2 -2.3

P o land 0.5 3.5 12.1 14.9 -22.8 -30.7 -33.3 -24.9 1.3 1.9 -1.9 -0.3 -3.0

Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 11.3 18.9 -10.5 -19.7 -18.9 -10.2 9.7 0.9 -3.4 -2.1 -3.5

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 142.6 3.1 1.2 -10.4 -18.2 -16.5 -13.4 6.0 0.7 0.3 -6.6 -3.4

Brazil 1.1 2.3 11.7 6.2 -8.2 -24.9 -20.2 -10.6 30.9 0.6 -1.4 -1.5 -4.4

Mexico 1.7 10.8 -0.3 -1.8 -17.6 -24.8 -21.8 -22.3 -0.7 1.0 1.8 0.4 -1.7

Argentina 0.4 2.7 -1.3 -1.5 -15.4 -11.1 -16.4 -20.6 -13.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 -1.0

Co lo mbia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 5.6 -9.2 -22.2 -21.0 -5.7 16.8 -3.5 -2.2 2.1 0.5

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa 1.7 163.8 1.9 2.5 -4.7 -5.5 -7.2 -5.4 0.6 0.1 -0.6 -0.2 -1.3

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.4 .. -1.2 -1.6 .. -5.6 -6.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 5.2 1.7 3.7 -2.1 -1.6 -4.3 -3.4 0.9 0.3 -0.5 0.7 -0.6

Algeria 0.3 73.4 4.8 7.3 -11.0 -8.0 -12.8 -16.1 -7.1 0.0 -0.1 0.4 -1.3

So uth As ia 1.2 107.4 5.4 -5.6 -9.6 -18.0 -13.6 -8.7 1.7 0.2 -0.2 0.8 -0.7

India 0.8 45.5 9.6 -5.0 -10.1 -20.0 -14.6 -9.5 4.5 0.3 -0.1 1.4 -1.0

P akis tan 0.2 62.4 -0.8 -13.7 -13.8 -23.1 -17.9 -10.2 -4.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3

Banglades h 0.1 62.3 0.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0

Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 -6.1 2.1 -5.8 -5.3 -7.4 -6.2 -4.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 0.3 -5.0 -9.9 -21.0 -14.8 -9.9 9.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -1.9

So uth Africa 0.6 7.7 -3.9 -14.7 -2.5 -25.4 -8.2 -0.2 32.7 -0.3 0.3 0.4 -2.7

Nigeria 0.3 124.9 2.3 6.1 -20.7 -19.7 -20.3 -22.9 -19.7 -0.6 0.9 -0.4 -0.6

M em o :

OECD 73.7 .. 6.9 4.2 -5.9 -15.0 -13.4 -5.5 11.0 0.9 -1.8 -1.1 -2.7

Develo ping exc l. China 19.0 118.7 4.8 1.3 -10.8 -17.9 -16.0 -12.0 3.3 0.6 -0.6 -1.9 -2.0

Develo ping o il expo rte rs 2.8 171.6 0.7 -1.4 -7.6 -13.2 -10.2 -8.5 3.6 0.1 0.1 -13.0 -4.2

Develo ping no n-o il expo rte rs 19.0 108.8 5.4 2.9 -9.5 -15.7 -14.5 -10.9 2.7 0.5 -0.6 0.0 -1.5

As ian high tech expo rte rs .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change except m o nthly data which is change o ver prev io us m o nth a/)

a / An increas e in the USD per LCU implies apprec ia tio n o f the lo ca l currency. The aggrega tes co mputed by us ing trade weights and rebas ed to year

2000=100 (bila te ra l to ta l trade i.e . impo rts plus expo rts in 1995 co ns tant USD).

Aggrega tes a re repo rted when a t leas t 60% (by weight) o f co untries repo rted da ta in tha t time perio d.

b/ Average leve ls a re LCU vis -a -vis the USD

February 18, 2010




Wo rld 2.7 4.8 4.0 4.8 8.8 8.3 5.5 3.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.7 ..

Hig h- inc o m e c o untrie s 1.2 3.3 2.5 2.4 4.3 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.3

Indus tria l co untries 1.1 3.2 2.3 2.3 3.8 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2

United S ta tes -1.9 3.8 3.2 2.8 3.9 1.6 0.0 -1.2 -1.6 -1.2 -0.1 1.9 2.8

J apan -2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 1.4 1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -1.8 -1.6

Euro Area 0.2 3.3 2.2 2.1 3.3 2.3 1.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 1.0

United Kindgo m 1.4 3.6 2.3 2.3 3.6 3.9 3.0 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.9

Other high inco me .. 6.1 2.5 2.3 4.4 3.6 2.4 1.5 .. 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.9

Ho ng Ko ng (China) 0.0 4.3 2.0 2.0 4.3 2.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.9 0.6 2.2 0.6 1.3

Singapo re -2.2 6.5 1.0 2.1 6.5 5.4 2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1 0.0

Taiwan (China) -3.3 3.5 0.6 1.8 3.6 1.8 0.0 -0.8 -1.3 -0.9 -1.9 -1.7 -0.2

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s 8.0 10.4 6.2 6.1 10.4 10.7 7.9 4.8 2.5 2.1 2.6 .. ..

Eas t As ia and P ac ific 6.4 9.5 6.2 5.5 9.5 9.7 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.2 -0.3 1.4 ..

China -4.0 5.8 -0.3 3.2 1.1 -3.9 -8.0 -8.6 -6.2 -5.2 -4.3 -1.7 0.7

Indo nes ia 2.1 9.5 13.1 5.8 9.5 11.5 8.6 5.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.9

Thailand -1.7 5.5 4.7 2.2 5.5 2.2 -0.2 -2.8 -2.2 -1.0 0.5 2.0 3.6

Malays ia -3.2 5.4 3.6 2.0 5.5 5.9 3.8 1.3 -2.3 -2.0 -1.5 0.0 1.2

Euro pe and Centra l As ia 6.4 10.4 6.5 8.4 10.7 9.4 8.4 4.2 2.9 2.8 3.2 2.8 3.7

Rus s ian Federa tio n 13.3 14.1 9.7 9.0 14.1 13.7 13.8 12.4 11.4 10.7 9.7 9.1 8.9

Turkey 6.5 10.4 9.7 8.7 10.5 11.0 8.4 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.6 6.6

P o land 5.3 4.3 1.1 2.4 4.4 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.8

Czech Republic 0.9 6.3 2.5 2.9 6.4 4.7 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.6 1.0

Latin America and Caribbean 7.1 8.8 4.9 6.7 9.4 8.3 6.3 4.4 2.6 3.1 2.8 3.5 ..

Brazil 4.8 5.7 4.2 3.6 5.7 6.2 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4

Mexico 5.5 5.1 3.6 3.9 5.1 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.1 4.9 4.5 3.9 3.6

Argentina 5.3 8.6 10.9 8.8 8.6 7.8 6.6 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.7

Co lo mbia 3.8 7.0 4.3 5.5 7.0 7.8 6.6 4.8 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa .. 13.7 6.2 3.9 15.0 13.8 4.5 3.3 4.2 4.8 5.0 .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. 9.9 2.2 4.1 9.9 9.8 6.9 5.3 4.2 4.4 3.5 4.1 ..

Iran 14.4 25.5 12.0 17.2 25.6 27.9 20.9 15.1 12.1 9.2 7.6 7.3 ..

Egypt 6.1 18.3 7.7 9.4 18.3 19.7 13.4 10.6 9.9 10.7 13.2 13.3 13.5

Algeria .. 0.1 2.5 3.5 4.4 5.2 5.1 .. .. .. .. .. ..

So uth As ia 10.6 10.9 7.5 7.6 10.9 14.2 9.6 8.9 9.7 7.4 8.8 10.6 10.6

India 6.7 8.4 6.2 6.3 8.4 10.2 9.6 8.9 11.7 11.6 11.5 13.4 15.1

P akis tan 8.7 20.3 7.9 7.6 20.3 24.3 20.3 14.9 10.6 10.1 8.8 10.6 10.6

Banglades h 0.4 8.9 6.8 9.1 8.9 6.5 5.7 4.3 4.2 4.6 .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.9 22.6 10.0 15.8 22.6 17.0 7.9 2.4 0.8 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.9

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 5.4 6.4 10.4 12.1 10.1 7.7 2.1 1.8 1.9 .. ..

So uth Africa .. .. 3.2 6.1 9.8 9.8 8.9 7.8 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 ..

Nigeria 9.1 11.6 8.3 5.4 11.6 14.9 14.3 12.5 10.9 10.5 11.7 12.4 ..

M em o : .. ..

OECD 1.3 3.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Develo ping exc l. China .. .. 6.2 6.2 10.4 10.8 7.9 4.8 2.6 2.2 2.6 .. ..

Develo ping o il expo rte rs 13.4 12.0 7.5 5.4 9.9 12.6 11.0 5.8 3.5 4.1 4.1 .. ..

Develo ping no n-o il expo rte rs 7.7 10.3 5.9 6.4 10.4 10.2 7.0 4.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 .. ..


Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; s eas o nally adjus ted a/)

a / Develo ping co untry aggrega tes co mputed us ing median. Indus tria l aggrega tes us e 1995 USD GDP weights .

Wo rld to ta l is GDP weighted average o f deve lo ping and high inco me to ta l. Aggrega tes a re repo rted when a t leas t

60% (by GDP ) o f co untries repo rted da ta in tha t time perio d.

Fo r deve lo ping co untries , aggrega te decada l gro wth ra tes a re median o f the decada l gro wth ra tes o f the

February 18, 2010


Weights 2009 2009 2009 2010 Lates t

1995 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 No v Dec J an 12-Feb

Wo rld 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hig h- inc o m e c o untrie sb

82.8 4.13 2.32 0.44 0.55 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.39 0.39

Indus tria l co untries 80.6 4.15 2.32 0.44 0.55 0.42 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.40

United S ta tes (US Federa l funds ra te ) 25.5 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11

J apan (Dis co unt Rate) 18.4 0.70 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30

Euro Area (Euro s ys main re fi ra te -minimum bid) 24.5 3.84 3.89 1.28 1.99 1.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

United Kindgo m (Clearing bank's bas e ra te ) 3.9 5.51 4.67 0.65 1.09 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high inco me 2.2 3.37 2.16 0.31 0.36 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 .. ..

Ho ng Ko ng (Dis co unt ra te ) 0.5 6.52 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 .. ..

S ingapo re (MAS Inte rbank 1 mo nth ra te ) 0.3 2.68 1.15 0.45 0.50 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44

Taiwan (Inte rbank s wap o vernight ra te ) 0.9 1.96 1.93 0.12 0.18 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Eas t As ia and P ac ific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending ra te , 6m to 1y) 2.4 6.71 7.18 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31

Indo nes ia (SBI 90 day ra te ) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18

Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6

Malays ia (Inte rbank o vernight ra te ) 0.3 3.50 3.48 2.11 2.47 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99

Euro pe and Centra l As ia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Rus s ian Federa tio n (Dis co unt (Refin.)) 1.2 10.27 10.87 11.38 13.00 12.23 10.86 9.45 9.40 8.96 8.75 8.75

Turkey (Inte rbank 1 week average) 0.6 18.37 17.05 9.71 13.21 10.09 8.46 7.10 7.05 6.88 6.89 6.89

P o land (Inte rbank 2 week) 0.4 4.48 5.88 3.62 4.29 3.58 3.32 3.30 3.31 3.28 3.26 3.26

Czech Republic (Repo ra te 2 weeks ) 0.2 2.86 3.49 1.52 1.95 1.59 1.35 1.21 1.25 1.13 1.00 1.00

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil (SELIC Targe t ra te ) 2.4 12.05 12.45 10.16 12.66 10.37 8.87 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75

Mexico (CETES 91 day c lo s ing) 1.0 7.36 7.88 5.52 7.42 5.43 4.63 4.62 4.61 4.60 4.62 4.62

Argentina (30 Day depo s it) 0.9 8.09 11.43 11.59 12.55 11.81 11.69 10.32 10.38 9.46 9.40 9.40

Co lo mbia (F ixed Term Depo s it) 0.3 7.94 9.68 6.28 9.13 6.54 5.08 4.38 4.40 4.21 3.97 3.97

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia (IMF dis co unt ra te ) 0.4 4.79 2.89 .. 2.52 1.67 0.28 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran (IMF dis co unt ra te ) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt (IMF dis co unt ra te ) 0.2 9.00 10.17 .. 10.67 9.50 8.67 .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria (IMF dis co unt ra te ) 0.1 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 .. .. ..

So uth As ia 1.6 .. .. ..

India (Bank depo s it 365+ days ) 1.2 7.04 7.90 8.90 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.59 8.76 8.00 8.00 8.00

P akis tan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 9.09 10.63 12.12 11.37 12.87 12.03 12.22 12.28 12.01 11.94 11.94

Banglades h (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 .. 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka (Centra l bank repurchas e) 0.0 10.43 10.50 9.03 10.37 9.55 8.43 7.78 7.83 7.50 7.50 7.50

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..

So uth Africa (Repo ra te ) 0.5 9.61 11.61 8.39 10.82 8.50 7.24 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00

Nigeria (IMF dis co unt ra te ) 0.1 9.13 9.85 .. 9.75 8.00 .. .. .. .. .. ..

M em o :

OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Develo ping exc l. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Develo ping o il expo rte rs 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Develo ping no n-o il expo rte rs 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

As ian high tech expo rte rs .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a / Mo nthly figures a re s imple averages o f the da ily figures ; except fo r the la tes t mo nth, the figure repo rted fo r the la tes t mo nth is the va lue o n the da te the

da ta has been repo rted (which is the las t da ily o bs erva tio n o ne day befo re the no te beco mes ava ilable ).

b/ High-inco me aggrega tes us e 1995 USD GDP weights .

February 18, 2010


Weights Average 2009 2009 2009 2010 Lates t


Wo rld .. 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hig h- inc o m e c o untrie s .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Indus tria l co untries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United S ta tes .. 89 123 105 83 72 77 86 94 91 92 93 89

J apan .. 84 98 79 62 52 56 61 61 59 62 64 62

Euro Area .. 99 457 403 222 131 188 215 265 282 277 292 273

United Kindgo m .. 88 155 100 65 47 56 66 70 70 68 69 65

Other high inco mea

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Ho ng Ko ng (China) .. .. 163 139 121 82 106 126 137 149 152 153 143

Singapo re .. 80 18 10 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5

Taiwan (China) .. 72 101 87 74 43 59 67 75 76 78 82 74

D e v e lo ping c o untrie sa , b

.. 156 246 220 176 106 139 165 188 190 193 197 183

Eas t As ia and P ac ificc

.. 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China .. 118 230 202 182 131 170 201 218 197 195 193 180

Indo nes ia .. 207 414 407 356 145 218 295 339 300 310 328 309

Thailand .. 188 260 245 201 104 134 166 181 159 164 168 158

Malays ia .. 116 177 159 141 98 115 134 149 159 157 161 154

Euro pe and Centra l As ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Rus s ian Federa tio n .. 525 554 490 259 164 247 272 343 349 343 364 344

Turkey .. 87 150 116 93 49 66 91 102 91 97 106 99

P o land .. 168 274 229 132 80 97 124 147 161 160 163 147

Czech Republic .. 354 768 847 577 381 475 576 580 673 648 662 620

Latin America and Caribbean .. 203 352 361 291 182 238 284 345 360 367 366 336

Brazil .. 199 349 395 317 197 267 318 397 407 411 407 369

Mexico .. 193 350 302 229 151 188 226 257 271 285 284 267

Argentina .. 104 200 175 101 63 70 92 113 126 121 125 116

Co lo mbia .. 352 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa .. .. 261 231 164 103 134 158 181 179 181 188 178

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. 213 497 556 354 188 255 300 317 299 293 306 323

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

So uth As ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. 198 334 297 242 120 177 216 248 275 285 292 270

P akis tan .. 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Banglades h .. .. 241 369 447 425 487 569 597 618 623 662 696

Sri Lanka .. 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


So uth Africa .. 216 290 240 218 139 175 210 230 215 220 223 210

Nigeria .. 409 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

M em o : .. .. .. ..

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Develo ping exc l. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Develo ping o il expo rte rs .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Develo ping no n-o il expo rte rs .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices , year 2000=100)

a / Average fo r Develo ping co untries and Other High Inco me co untries is fo r the perio d 1995-2002

No te : Quarte rly and Mo nthly da ta is co ns truc ted fro m da ily da ta by taking the las t o bs erva tio n fo r the mo nth.

Annual da ta is the average o ver 12 mo nths .

b/ Aggrega tes defined by IFC/S&P

c/ Eas t As ia P ac ific inc luding So uth As ia

So urce : Wo rld - Mo rgan Stanley Capita l Inte rna tio na l Index; USA - Wils hire 5000; J apan - To pix; Euro Area - S&P

EUROP E 350; UK - S tandard and P o o r's 350; Ho ng Ko ng - Hang Seng Co mpo s ite ; S ingapo re - S ingapo re S to ck

Excahnge Co mpo s ite Index;

February 18, 2010


GDP Gro s s do mes tic P ro duct Current Acco unt Balance

2009 2010 2011 2010 2011

Co ns . EIU OECD Co ns . EIU OECD Co ns . EIU OECD Co ns . EIU OECD

Wo rld -2.2 3.1 2.8 1.9 3.3 2.4 2.5 148 -308 .. 146 -305 ..

Hig h- inc o m e c o untrie s -3.3 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.4 2.4 -209 -308 .. -207 -306 ..

Indus tria l co untries -3.4 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.4 1.3 2.4 -297 -308 .. -297 -306 ..

United S ta tes -2.5 2.9 2.5 2.5 3.1 1.4 2.8 -504 -478 -506 -568 -449 -566

J apan -5.3 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.0 2.0 179 145 146 191 155 148

Euro Area -3.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.7 -29 -34 -11 -7 -54 45

United Kindgo m -4.5 1.5 0.7 1.2 2.2 0.8 2.2 -35 -17 -57 -31 -7 -48

Other high inco me -2.7 4.4 4.1 .. 4.4 4.1 .. 88 .. .. 90 .. ..

Ho ng Ko ng (China) -2.9 4.6 4.6 .. 4.4 3.7 .. 24 .. .. 27 .. ..

S ingapo re -2.1 5.7 4.9 .. 5.1 4.8 .. 25 .. .. 26 .. ..

Ta iwan (China) -3.4 4.8 4.2 .. 4.6 4.6 .. 34 .. .. 34 .. ..

D e v e lo ping c o untrie s 1.7 5.9 5.6 .. 6.1 5.5 .. 356.9 0.3 .. 353.3 0.2 ..

Eas t As ia and P ac ific 6.9 8.8 8.6 .. 8.3 7.5 .. 360.1 0.3 .. 375.8 0.3 ..

China 8.5 9.7 9.6 .. 9.1 8.1 .. 303.4 0.3 276.4 318.5 0.3 323.9

Indo nes ia 4.5 5.6 5.5 .. 6.0 5.9 .. 6.6 .. .. 6.9 .. ..

Tha iland -3.0 4.3 3.2 .. 4.5 4.1 .. 12.1 .. .. 9.3 .. ..

Malays ia -2.2 4.8 3.7 .. 5.0 4.0 .. 31.9 .. .. 34.7 .. ..

Euro pe and Centra l As ia -5.4 3.0 2.4 .. 3.9 3.6 .. 3.8 0.0 .. -4.4 0.0 ..

Rus s ian Federa tio n -7.9 4.1 3.0 .. 4.5 4.1 .. 67.5 0.1 .. 69.1 0.1 ..

Turkey -5.8 4.0 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.6 -23.9 .. -19.9 -30.1 .. -25.8

P o land 1.5 2.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 2.6 3.1 -10.8 .. -11.5 -12.5 .. -13.2

Czech Republic -4.1 1.5 0.9 2.0 2.9 3.0 2.8 -2.6 .. 0.6 -3.3 .. 0.8

Latin America and Caribbean -2.5 3.9 3.2 .. 3.7 3.2 .. -41.2 .. .. -63.1 -0.1 ..

Brazil -0.1 5.4 4.8 .. 4.5 4.5 .. -44.6 .. .. -56.0 -0.1 ..

Mexico -6.9 3.4 2.9 2.7 3.5 2.7 3.9 -11.2 .. 9.4 -15.2 .. 15.0

Argentina -2.5 3.5 3.1 .. 2.6 2.3 .. 7.4 .. .. 5.4 .. ..

Co lo mbia 0.2 2.9 2.5 .. 3.6 3.4 .. -5.7 .. .. -6.7 .. ..

Middle Eas t and No rth Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia -0.9 3.5 3.2 .. 4.4 3.5 .. 56.0 .. .. 71.2 .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 4.6 4.9 5.4 .. 5.6 5.7 .. -3.5 .. .. -2.8 .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

So uth As ia 6.1 6.4 6.7 .. 7.3 7.3 .. -22.4 .. .. -27.2 .. ..

India 6.6 6.8 7.3 .. 7.8 7.8 .. -15.7 .. .. -21.3 .. ..

P akis tan 2.9 3.5 2.9 .. 4.0 4.3 .. -6.7 .. .. -5.9 .. ..

Banglades h 5.5 5.9 5.7 .. 6.3 5.9 .. .. 0.1 .. .. -0.1 ..

Sri Lanka 3.2 .. 6.5 .. .. 5.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


So uth Africa -2.0 2.7 2.8 .. 3.7 3.7 .. -17.0 .. .. -17.8 .. ..

Nigeria 4.5 5.4 6.2 .. 6.0 5.8 .. 21.2 .. .. 21.6 .. ..

M em o :

OECD -3.5 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.4 2.5 -352 -308 .. -366 -306 ..

Develo ping exc l. China -1.1 4.2 3.8 .. 4.6 4.3 .. 53.5 0.0 .. 34.8 -0.1 ..

Develo ping o il expo rte rs 1.1 3.6 2.6 .. 4.6 3.7 .. 102.1 0.1 .. 117.0 0.1 ..

Develo ping no n-o il expo rte rs 1.7 6.1 5.9 .. 6.2 5.7 .. 254.8 0.2 .. 236.3 0.2 ..


Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billio ns o f US do llars )

Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd .; The Economis t Intelligence Unit and OECD.

R eg ional A ggregates:

Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VEN

Europe and Central As ia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKR

East As ia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THA

Midd le-Eas t and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEM

South Asia: BGD,IND,PAK

Sub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWE

Other A ggregates:

OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USA

Indus trial Countries : AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USA

Other High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVN

Develop ing Oil Exporters : IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN

Documents

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