Growth in the Puget Sound Region · 2017-02-16 · Growth in the Puget Sound Region-80,000-60,000-40,000-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 1990-91 1996-97 2002-03 2008-09

Growth in the Puget Sound Region Transportation Policy BoardFebruary 11, 2016

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Highlights

• Strongest population growth since 2005

• Strongest job growth since 1997

• Growth is predominately occurring in

cities, centers and other urban areas

• Preservation of rural areas


We’ve Been Growing

The region grew by 63K people and 76K jobs last year (2014-15)

• That’s more than 7 people per hour

• Nearly 9 jobs per hour

Growth

per

hour

Graphic by Picktochart


Another Tacoma

Since 2010 the region has grown by 208,000 people

2or the equivalent of a Tacoma

this Tacoma not this Tacoma


Strongest Growth Since 2005

• Population growth slowed during recessions

• Accelerated in recent years

Annual population growth

Growth in the Puget Sound Region 6

Puget Sound Population: 3.9 Million

• Expected to hit 4 million in 2017

• Nearly 5 million by 2040 – on track with VISION forecast

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Mil

lio

ns

Actual Forecast

Employment

Population

Households

} 1 million additional people

} 850,000 additional jobs

} 600,000 additional households


200,000

216,000

223,000

249,000

280,000

310,000

343,000

368,000

417,000

493,000

502,000

541,000

Denver, CO

Austin, TX

Seattle, WA

San Francisco, CA

Phoenix, AZ

Atlanta, GA

Miami, FL

Washington, DC

Los Angeles, CA

New York,NY

Dallas, TX

Houston, TX

6.5%

6.5%

6.6%

7.0%

7.0%

7.8%

7.8%

8.1%

8.5%

9.1%

9.3%

12.5%

Seattle, WA

Washington, DC

Phoenix, AZ

Nashville, TN

Charlotte, NC-SC

Dallas, TX

Denver, CO

San Antonio, TX

Orlando, FL

Houston, TX

Raleigh, NC

Austin, TX

One of the Fastest Growing Regions in U.S.

Major U.S. Metro Areas Population Growth – Nominal and Percent Growth 2010-2014


But Not As Fast as Some Places

people/ hour:

7

9

18

85

Rate of population growthGraphic by Picktochart


Global Perspective

http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/nov/23/cities-in-numbers-how-patterns-of-urban-growth-change-the-world#img-1


Where are people from?

In-state relocation tops migration

Total from other

countries: 35,084Place of prior year residenceCensus ACS 2009-2013

3,549

4,171

4,658

5,498

5,604

8,512

8,544

21,163

25,559

32,197

Colorado

Georgia

Florida

Arizona

Europe

Oregon

Texas

Asia

California

Washington


Migration Follows the Economy

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Natural Increase vs Net Migration

Natural

Migration

Natural increase is a constant


-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1990-91 1996-97 2002-03 2008-09 2014-15

Annual Change in Wage & Salary Employment

Largest Annual Job Increase Since 1997-98

• Recession lost over 120,000 jobs regionally; recovered from job losses in 2013

• In 2014-15 grew by about 66,000 wage & salary employment jobs, or about

76,000 total jobs


2 Million Total Jobs in the Region

Strong growth in our IT and aerospace industry clusters

4.04%

0.77%

1.34%

5.34%

1.49%

5.93%

2.67%2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

-

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

Gro

wth

Ra

te

Jo

bs

Cluster Employment and Growth Rate 2010-14

2010

2013

2014

Growth-Rate 2010-14


Tech is Hot

Computer jobs have led growth for past 5 years

10,137

11,845

14,317

14,772

18,053

20,301

Information and Record Clerks

Retail Sales Workers

Food and Beverage Serving Workers

Business Operations Specialists

Construction Trades Workers

Computer Occupations

2010-15 employment growth for top categories


Growth = Construction Jobs

Construction jobs saw greatest gain last year

2,912

2,929

3,477

3,724

4,240

8,569

Computer Occupations

Material Moving Workers

Business Operations Specialists

Information and Record Clerks

Retail Sales Workers

Construction Trades Workers

2014-15 employment growth for top categories


Where is Growth?

• Permitted

housing units

2000-2004– 134,000 new

housing unitsReplace with 2000 base map


Where is Growth?

• Permitted

housing units

2005-2009– 117,000 new

housing units


Where is Growth?

• Permitted

housing units

2010-2013– 67,000 new

housing units

– (3 year period)


Where is Growth?

• Total

permitted

housing units

2000-2013– 318,000 new

housing units


Where is Growth?

• Employment change

2010-2014

– 160,000 new jobs

overall

– King: 115,000

– Kitsap: 1,000

– Pierce: 15,000

– Snohomish: 28,000


Kitsap County

• Population: 258,200 (2015)

• 1% annual growth rate

• 2,300 more people over the past year

• 14,600 new units permitted 2000-13

80.5%

19.5%

2013 Residential Permits

Urban

Rural

Map shows residential permits 2000-2013


Snohomish County

• Population: 757,600 (2015)

• 2.2% annual growth rate

• 16,600 more people over the

past year

• 63,500 new units permitted

2000-13

• Strongest growth in SW county,

Ash Way and Marysville areas

91.6%

8.4%


Urban

Rural



King County

99.4%

0.6%


Urban

Rural


• Population:

2,052,800 (2015)

• 1.8% annual

growth rate

• 35,550 more

people over the

past year

• 175,600 new units

permitted 2000-13

• Strong growth in

centers


Pierce County• Population: 830,120 (2015)

• 1% annual growth rate

• 8,820 more people over the past year

• 64,100 new units permitted 2000-13

87.7%

12.3%


Urban

Rural



New Growth is in Cities and Urban Areas

• 95% of new housing was built in cities and urban areas (2013)

• Compared to 72% in 1991

• Rural lands are staying rural

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1991 2013Net Permitted Housing Units 1991-2013

Inside UGA

Outside UGA


• % Minority in 2014

• Minority population

increased from 15%

(1990) to 34% (2014)

• Foreign-born population

contributed to 38% of

total population growth

1990-2014

Demographic Shift


Young Adults (18-29)

% of population people per acre


Cities Growing the Most and the Fastest

Seattle Tops Local Cities

Population growth and percent increase 2010-15 excluding annexations

2,896

3,294

3,903

4,120

4,887

5,031

5,365

6,717

7,007

53,740

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Issaquah

Sammamish

Tacoma

Marysville

Redmond

Kent

Auburn

Renton

Bellevue

Seattle

9.0%

9.5%

9.7%

11.0%

12.2%

12.6%

12.8%

20.0%

20.4%

20.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Redmond

Issaquah

Duvall

North Bend

Bonney Lake

Port Orchard

DuPont

Gig Harbor

Snoqualmie

Ruston


Strongest Job Growth in Regional Centers

• 33% of the region’s job growth going into regional growth centers -

just 3% of the urban land area (covered employment for 2010-2014)

• Since 2010:

– 52,000 more jobs in regional growth centers

– 18,000 more jobs in manufacturing/industrial centers


More People Living in Regional Centers

• Regional centers have some

of the strongest housing

growth

• Since 2000 14% of housing

growth has occurred in

regional growth centers

• Pop-to-job ratio has

increased from 0.29 to 0.37

improving jobs/housing

balance

9,7075,353

5,014

3,172

2,566

1,990

1,952

1,805

1,784

1,037

Downtown Seattle

Bellevue

First Hill/Capitol Hill

South Lake Union

Seattle Uptown

Renton

Redmond DT

University District

Downtown Tacoma

Tacoma Mall

New housing units 2000-2014

38,000 total new housing units among all

regional growth centers 2000-2014

Top Performing Regional Growth Centers


Challenges


Summary

• Strong pop & job growth consistent with

past cycles and VISION 2040

• Growth trend toward cities, urban locations

and places with access

– Strongest growth in regional centers

– Growth pattern is helping preserve rural areas

• Employment growth strongest in tech

– Construction and retail see benefits of growth

• Pressure on transportation system and

housing affordability


Next Steps

• What do you want to know more about?

• Potential future presentations on:

– Looking closer at where growth is going

– Exploring issues, such housing affordability

and the changing demographics of the region

– Connecting growth with transportation

infrastructure

– Assessing VISION 2040 and the regional

growth strategy

Thank You

Paul Inghram

[email protected]

Carol [email protected]

Documents

Growth in the Puget Sound Region · 2017-02-16 · Growth in the Puget Sound Region-80,000-60,000-40,000-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 1990-91 1996-97 2002-03 2008-09