Growth continues to accelerate. - narnolia.com · PBT Tax Will able to grow loan book in FY19 and FY20 at 30%. Expect 30-35% recovery in Security Receipts in FY19. SR has total stock

0%

Key Risks to our rating and target

♦

♦

♦

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

4567 5797 7737 10550 13947

4303 5838 7748 10153 13411

2539 3330 4225 5782 7729

3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1

12 15 18 25 34

25.8 20.8 25.7 36.9 33.7

19.9 18.6 17.7 20.4 22.6

1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6

66 97 112 134 163

2.6 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.2

14.3 22.2 16.6 14.0 10.5

BANKING

YES IN

532648

Weaker credit growth cycle will hurt advances growth.

Yes Bank is one of the fastest corporate lending private banks in India. Loan book has grown at

an average rate of 42% during FY18 which has been very far ahead of peers’ growth (average of

20%). Yes Bank crossed significant milestones of Rs 3Lakh Cr in Total Assets and advances

and deposits in excess of Rs 2 Lakh Cr each. Corporate banking contributes 68% of the loan

portfolio. We expect Yes Bank to register 32% loan CAGR over FY18-20.

While there have been concerns over assets quality issues, Yes Bank has shown impressive

improvement in last quarters. There has been no impact on slippages from restructured book

due to latest circular by RBI on stressed assets recognition.

Management approved to raise capital with a limit to US$ 1 Bn through ADR/GDR/QIP (with

dilution cap of 10%). The dilution could happen at the end of FY19.

Yes bank reported healthy all round performance in 4Q FY18 results beating our expectation of PAT

by 4%. Net Interest income thrived by 31% YoY supported by burgeoning loan book growth of 54%

YoY. NIM was at 3.4% as it saw marginal pressure on sequential basis which declined by 10 bps.

Other income grew by 13% YoY due to lower trading gains during the quarter. Operating expenses

grew by 19% YoY and led the cost to income ratio to 40% against 41.6% a year ago. Operating

profitability grew by 26% YoY. Due to recent assets quality issues, provisions remained at higher

level and grew by 29% YoY to Rs 400Cr. PAT grew by 29% YoY.

4Q FY18 Result:

View and Valuation

YESBANK

Significant deterioration in assets quality.

Significant increase in bond yields implying a rise in cost of funds

EPS growth (%)

Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)

Free float (%)

Stock Info

NSE Code

Key Highlights

30%

Growth continues to accelerate.

No. of Shares (Crore)

KEY FINANCIAL/VALUATIONS

NII

383/275

81075

80%

15462

46

Promoters Pledged %

52wk Range H/L

Industry

Bloomberg

BSE Code

Management targets to cross Rs 5 trillion balance sheet, 4% NIM and CASA of 40% by FY20

with 25%-27% consistent earnings growth.

27 April 2018

CMP

Price Target

Previous Target

Potential Upside

352

457

428

RATING BUY

PPP

PAT

Avg. Vol 1M (,000)

NIM %

EPS (Rs)

Research Analyst

DEEPAK KUMAR SAW

Yes Bank has been continuously beating the street expectation on profitability parameter on the

back of stellar growth in loan book and normalizing assets quality. CASA growth has been robust.

Bank has been continuously gaining market share of better rated corporate client from PSU banks

peers. Further management is planning to raise US$ 1 Bn at the end of FY19 to support the growth.

Factoring strong loan growth and normalizing credit cost, we increase our PAT estimate for FY19

and FY20 by 5% and 7% respectively. Pre-capital dilution, we expect RoE /RoA of 22%/1.6% in

FY20. We recommend BUY with the target price of Rs 457 at 2.8x BV FY20e.

Narnolia Securities LtdPlease refer to the Disclaimers at WWW.Narnolia.com

ROE (%)

ROA (%)

BV

P/B (X)

P/E (x)

[email protected]

The views expressed above accurately reflect the personal views of the authors about the subject companies and its(their) securities. The authors have

not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view. Narnolia Securities does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the

objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

4Q FY 18 Results

Above expectation

4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 YoY % QoQ% FY17 FY18 YoY %

4,349 4,654 4,800 5,070 5,743 32.1% 13.3% 16,425 20,267 23.4%

2,709 2,845 2,915 3,182 3,589 32.5% 12.8% 10,627 12,530 17.9%

1,640 1,809 1,885 1,889 2,154 31.4% 14.1% 5,797 7,737 33.5%

1,257 1,132 1,248 1,422 1,421 13.0% -0.1% 4,157 5,224 25.7%

2,897 2,941 3,134 3,311 3,575 23.4% 8.0% 9,954 12,961 30.2%

1,206 1,237 1,227 1,309 1,440 19.4% 10.0% 4,117 5,213 26.6%

1,691 1,704 1,907 2,002 2,135 26.3% 6.7% 5,838 7,748 32.7%

310 286 447 421 400 29.0% -5.1% 793 1,554 95.8%

1,381 1,418 1,460 1,580 1,736 25.7% 9.8% 5,044 6,194 22.8%

467 453 457 504 556 19.1% 10.5% 1,714 1,970 14.9%

914 966 1,003 1,077 1,179 29.0% 9.5% 3,330 4,225 26.9%

Stellar Performance

Other Income

Financials

NII

Interest Inc.

Interest Exp.

Total Income

Ope Exp.

PPP

Provisions

PBT

Tax

Will able to grow loan book in FY19 and FY20 at 30%.

Expect 30-35% recovery in Security Receipts in FY19. SR has total stock of Rs 1900 Cr.

Significant recovery in assets quality.

Net Profit

Advances accelerated across the segment. CASA growth continues to remain healthy.

Marginal pressure on NIM and healthy traction in fee income.

Concall Highlights :


Advances grew surprisingly with a healthy rate of 54% YoY led by strong growth across the segment.

Large corporate advances grew by 54% YoY while MSME portfolio grew by 34% YoY. Consumer banking

growth has been robust at 98% YoY. Growth was backed by gain in market share of corporate clients

from PSU bank peers. Composition of loan book largely remained flat on sequential basis with corporate

portfolio at 68% and retail & business banking at 32%. Rating profile of corporate portfolio towards A and

better rated increased to 80%from 78% a quarter back. Deposit of the bank increased by 41% YoY

whereas CASA also grew by 41% YoY. Fixed deposits grew stronger by 40% which led the CASA ratio to

decline to 37% mark against 38% in 3Q FY18. The CASA growth was backed by robust growth in both

CA and SA by 51% and 35% YoY respectively. The retail deposits contribution has fallen to 57% against

61% a quarter back.

Assets quality of Yes Bank improved with GNPA decreasing by 44 bps to 1.28% and NNPA declining by

29 bps 0.64% sequentially. Slippages declined by23% QoQ. PCR increased to 50% from 46% a quarter

back and management hopes to increase to PCR at 60% as at 2QFY19 on the back of recovery from

NCLT resolution cases. Total stressed assets declined to 1.74% from 2.42% a quarter back. Credit cost

fall to 13bps from 18 bps QoQ. Yes Bank has total exposure of Rs 969 Cr from 9 borrowers referred to

NCLT cases by RBI of 40 cases in both the list and carries roughly 45% of provisions on both the list.

Bank carries provision of 51% on the aggregate funded exposures of NCLT List 1, and, 43% on the

aggregate funded exposure of the subsequent NCLT list 2. Management has disclosed minimal impact of

Rs 280 Cr going forward due to latest circular of RBI on stressed assets recognition.

NIM fall to 3.4% against 3.5% QoQ due to rising cost of fund. Yield on advances increased by 10 bps

QoQ whereas cost of fund was stable at 6%. Fee income registered robust growth of 21%. Trading gain

has declined by 23% YoY due to rising bond yield. Total Non Interest income registered a moderate

growth of 13% YoY.

Will able to improve C/I ratio in medium term to below 40%.

Expect credit cost in the range of 50-70 bps in FY19.

PCR will improve to 60% in 2Q FY19 due to recovery in NPA accounts.

Targeting CASA of 40% in FY19 from earlier guidance by FY20.

Profitability growth would be in the range of 25-27% going ahead.

Targeting NIM to reach 4% by FY20.

Management approved capital raise plan upto USD 1Bn by the end of FY19 or at the beginning of

FY20.

Nil Slippage during the quarter from restructured book on account of Feb 12, 2018 RBI Circular.

2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 YoY (+/-) QoQ (+/-)

40.6 42.0 41.6 42.1 39.2 39.5 40.3 -1.36 0.73

45.7 44.4 41.2 44.2 45.9 40.7 38.0 -3.22 -2.77

54.3 55.6 58.8 55.8 54.1 59.3 62.0 3.22 2.77

11.7 7.9 18.3 16.8 23.4 21.0 18.7 0.40 -2.33

34.5 34.1 33.8 31.9 31.3 31.9 32.1 -1.77 0.19

64.7 64.4 62.3 61.1 60.7 62.7 62.5 0.19 -0.26

38.0 39.8 43.4 38.5 39.8 43.0 39.7 -3.66 -3.21

34.3 35.2 31.6 32.8 32.0 32.5 33.0 1.44 0.47

21.4 22.3 21.8 17.4 17.5 18.0 18.8 -3.00 0.80

1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 -0.20 -0.10


10.9 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.2 9.8 9.9 -0.80 0.10

10.2 10.0 9.6 9.8 9.4 9.3 9.5 -0.14 0.21

6.8 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 -0.30 0.00

3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 -0.20 -0.10

Exhibit: Yield and Cost Exhibit: Net Interest Margin

4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18

58 71 72 59 79 80 98 102 129

25 16 23 24 48 49 64 77 66

31 22 28 30 63 28 30 27 54

35 37 46 52 78 68 49 47 55

34 31 42 50 45 36 32 37 43

182 177 210 214 313 259 272 290 347

364 470 276 341 586 411 477 723 644

141 111 103 100 118 135 144 154 240

687 759 589 654 1017 805 893 1167 1231

37.8 69.3 26.4 1.7 48.2 6.1 51.6 78.3 21.0

116 202 299 308 232 322 352 243 178

0 0 36 8 5 4 12 12

803 961 888 998 1257 1132 1248 1422 1421

36.0 76.3 43.7 33.8 56.6 17.8 40.6 42.4 13.0Growth YoY %

Total Fee-Based In.

Growth YoY %

Total Other Income

Forex, Debt Capital Mkt

Others

RoA %

Margin %

Yield on Advances

Int Exp./Int Inc. (%)

Other Inc./Net Inc. %

PAT/ Net Income %

RoE %

Profitability Matrix

C/I Ratio %

Empl. Cost/ Tot. Exp. %

Other Exp/Tot. Exp.%

Provision/PPP %

Tax Rate %


Yield (Total Assets)

Margin Performance

Cost Of Funds

Decline in yield and cost over a period of time NIM has saw marginal pressure

Other Income Break Up-

NIM

Cor. Trade & Cash Mngt

Trade & Remittance

Facility / Processing Fee

Third Party Sales

Interchange Income

General Banking Fees

Retail Banking Fees

Corporate Banking Fees

10

.3

10

.4

10

.2

10

.0

9.6

9.8

9.4

9.3

9.5

7.0

7.0

6.8

6.6

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.0

6.0

Avg Yield on Earning Assets Cost of Fund

3.4 3.4 3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7 3.7

3.5

3.4

NIM

Exhibit: Fee Income/Advances % Exhibit: Other Income/ Total Income %


917 1,006 2,019 1,364 2,720 2,974 2,627 30% -12%

0.8 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.3 -0.24 -0.44

323 342 1,072 545 1,543 1,595 1,313 22% -18%

0.3 0.3 0.8 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.6 -0.17 -0.29

302 127 1,905 201 1,989 495 380 -80% -23%

0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.20 0.11

64.8 66.0 46.9 60.0 43.3 46.4 50.0 3.15 3.65

Exhibit: Asset Quality Exhibit: Provisions

GNPA %

NNPA (Rs in Cr)

NNPA %

Slippages (Rs in Cr)

Restructured Assets %

Asset Quality

GNPA (Rs in Cr)

Specific PCR %


Significant Improvement in assets quality Healthy PCR

0.7 0.7

0.5 0.6

0.8

0.6 0.6 0.7

0.6

Fee Income/Advances %

39.3

43.3

38.0

39.8

43.4

38.5

39.8

43.0

39.7

Other Income/Total Net Income %

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9

1.5

1.0

1.8 1.7

1.3

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

0.8

0.4

1.0 0.9

0.6

GNPA % NNPA %

62 64 65 66 47 60 43 46 50

0.2 0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.2

Specific PCR % Prov/Avg Adv%

Exhibit: Advances Performance Exhibit: Advances Breakup%

Exhibit: Deposits Performance Exhibit: CASA Performance

Exhibit: Credit Deposit Ratio Exhibit: Return Ratios


Showing stellar growth Dominated by Corporate banking

Deposits growth picked up Stable CASA level

Average at healthy level. Higher return ratio profile.

98

,21

0

1,0

5,9

42

1,1

0,2

16

1,1

7,0

87

1,3

2,2

63

1,3

9,9

72

1,4

8,6

75

1,7

1,5

15

2,0

3,5

34

30.0 33.0

37.7 38.7 34.7

32.1 34.9

46.5

53.9

Net Advances (Rs in Cr) Advances Growth YoY %

65.1 67.5 67.9 68.9 67.7 68.1 67.4 67.7 67.9

34

.9

32

.5

32

.1

31

.1

32

.3

31

.9

32

.6

32

.3

32

.1

Corporate Banking% Retail & Business Banking%

1,1

1,7

20

1,2

2,5

81

1,2

8,0

24

1,3

2,3

76

1,4

2,8

74

1,5

0,2

41

1,5

7,9

90

1,7

1,7

31

2,0

0,7

38

22.5

28.6 28.9 30.5 27.9

22.6 23.4

29.7

40.5

Deposits (Rs in Cr) Growth YoY %

28

.1

29

.6

30

.3

33

.3

36

.3

36

.7

37

.2

38

.0

36

.5

48.7

63.0

53.2

63.3 65.5

52.1 51.4 48.0

41.1

CASA % CASA Growth YoY %

87.9 86.4 86.1

88.5

92.6 93.2 94.1

99.9 101.4

Credit Deposit Ratio

21.1 20.7 21.4 22.3 21.8

17.4 17.5 18.0 18.8

1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6

RoE% RoA%

Y/E March FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

359 361 418 421 456 461 461 461

359 361 418 421 456 461 461 461

- - - - - - - -

5,449 6,761 11,262 13,366 21,598 25,298 30,333 37,095

5,808 7,122 11,680 13,787 22,054 25,758 30,794 37,556

66,956 74,192 91,176 1,11,720 1,42,874 2,00,738 2,80,809 3,68,375

36.2 10.8 22.9 22.5 27.9 40.5 39.9 31.2

12,688 16,345 21,079 31,340 51,870 73,176 1,12,324 1,58,401

71.6 28.8 29.0 48.7 65.5 41.1 53.5 41.0

20,922 21,314 26,220 31,659 38,607 74,894 88,556 1,11,839

5,419 6,388 7,094 8,098 11,525 11,056 15,872 20,821

99,104 1,09,016 1,36,170 1,65,263 2,15,060 3,12,446 4,16,031 5,38,591

4,066 5,892 7,557 8,218 19,549 24,734 26,376 28,416

42,976 40,950 46,605 48,838 50,032 68,399 98,283 1,28,931

54.8 (4.7) 13.8 4.8 2.4 36.7 43.7 31.2

47,000 55,633 75,550 98,210 1,32,263 2,03,534 2,70,700 3,57,324

23.7 18.4 35.8 30.0 34.7 53.9 33.0 32.0

230 293 319 471 684 832 984 1,181

4,833 6,247 6,139 9,526 12,532 14,946 19,687 22,739

99,104 1,09,016 1,36,170 1,65,263 2,15,060 3,12,446 4,16,031 5,38,591


8,294 9,981 11,572 13,533 16,425 20,267 27,906 36,845

6,075 7,265 8,084 8,967 10,627 12,530 17,356 22,898

2,219 2,716 3,488 4,567 5,797 7,737 10,550 13,947

37.3 22.4 28.4 30.9 26.9 33.5 36.4 32.2

1,257 1,722 2,046 2,712 4,157 5,224 6,231 8,038

46.7 36.9 18.9 32.5 53.3 25.7 19.3 29.0

- - 1,374 2,244 3,019 4,095 5,537 7,185

156 166 142 261 711 470 748 884

1,102 1,555 530 208 426 658 (53) (31)

3,476 4,438 5,534 7,279 9,954 12,961 16,781 21,985

1,335 1,750 2,285 2,976 4,117 5,213 6,629 8,574

43.1 31.1 30.6 30.3 38.3 26.6 27.2 29.4

656 784 980 1,297 1,805 2,189 2,685 3,518

2,142 2,688 3,250 4,303 5,838 7,748 10,153 13,411

39.1 25.5 20.9 32.4 35.7 32.7 31.0 32.1

216 362 339 536 793 1,554 1,392 1,700

139.4 67.5 (6.1) 58.0 47.9 95.8 (10.4) 22.1

1,926 2,326 2,910 3,766 5,044 6,194 8,761 11,711

625 709 905 1,227 1,714 1,970 2,979 3,982

1,301 1,618 2,005 2,539 3,330 4,225 5,782 7,729

33.1 24.4 24.0 26.6 31.1 26.9 36.9 33.7

Profit After Tax

Change (%)


Tax

>> Treasury Income

>> Others

Total Net Income

Operating Expenses

Change (%)

>> Employee Expenses

Pre-provisioning Profit

Change (%)

Provisions

Change (%)

PBT

>> Core Fee Income

Change (%)

Fixed Assets

Other Assets

Total Assets

Income Statement

Interest income

Interest expended

Net Interest Income

Change (%)

Other Income

Change (%)

Advances

Networth

Deposits

Change (%)

>> CASA Deposits

Change (%)

Borrowings

Other Liabilities & Provisions

Total Liabilities

Cash & Bank

Investments

Change (%)

Reserves & Surplus

Financial Details

Balance Sheet

Share Capital

>> Equity Capital

>> Preference Capital


23.7 18.4 35.8 30.0 34.7 53.9 33.0 32.0

36.2 10.8 22.9 22.5 27.9 40.5 39.9 31.2

70.2 75.0 82.9 87.9 92.6 101.4 96.4 97.0

18.9 22.0 23.1 28.1 36.3 36.5 40.0 43.0

64.2 55.2 51.1 43.7 35.0 34.1 35.0 35.0

18.3 14.4 15.6 16.5 17.0 18.4 14.7 14.1

9.5 9.8 11.5 10.7 13.3 9.7 8.9 8.4

8.8 4.6 4.1 5.8 3.7 5.2 2.3 2.2

94 175 313 749 2,019 2,627 3,010 3,571

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0

7 26 88 284 1,072 1,313 1,023 1,143

0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3

- - 0.5 0.9 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.6

92.6 85.1 72.0 62.0 46.9 50.0 66.0 68.0

0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5

12.7 12.7 12.2 11.2 10.6 9.2 9.1 9.0

8.1 8.1 8.0 7.4 7.7 6.9 6.9 6.9

10.4 10.4 10.2 9.6 9.2 8.2 8.1 8.1

6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.2 4.9 4.9

7.9 7.8 7.5 6.8 6.5 5.4 5.3 5.3

2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8

2.8 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1

73.2 72.8 69.9 66.3 64.7 61.8 62.2 62.1

- - 39.4 49.1 52.1 52.9 52.5 51.5

40.2 41.0 42.4 42.4 44.5 41.7 41.3 40.6

1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9

32.5 30.5 31.1 32.6 34.0 31.8 34.0 34.0

7 9 10 12 15 18 25 34

31.0 23.7 7.0 25.8 20.8 25.7 36.9 33.7

24.8 25.0 21.3 19.9 18.6 17.7 20.4 22.6

1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6

16.5 17.8 18.7 16.6 16.4 14.7 13.9 11.9

1.4 2.0 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1

32 39 56 66 97 112 134 163

22.2 21.9 41.6 17.3 47.4 15.8 19.6 22.0

2.6 2.1 2.9 2.6 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.2

11.8 9.0 17.0 14.3 22.2 16.6 14.0 10.5

Change (%)

P/B (X)

P/E (X)


Book Value (Rs)

Fee Income/NII (%)

Cost to Income (%)

Cost on Average Assets (%)

Tax Rate (%)

Valuation Ratio Metrics

EPS (Rs)

Change (%)

ROAE (%)

ROAA (%)

Dividend Payout (%)

Dividend yield (%)

Int. Expense/Int.Income (%)

Provision Coverage (%)

Provision/Average Advances (%)

Margin Metrics

Yield On Advances (%)

Yield On Investment (%)

Yield on Earning Assets (%)

Cost Of Deposits (%)

Cost Of Funds (%)

Spread (%)

NIM (%)

Profitability & Effeciency Metrics

Slippges (%)

CASA (%)

Investment/Deposit (%)

CRAR (%)

>> Tier 1 (%)

>> Tier 2 (%)

Assets Quality Metrics

Gross NPA

Gross NAP (%)

Net NPA

Net NPA (%)

C/D Ratio (%)

Financial Details

Key Ratios

Balance Sheet Metrics

Loan Growth (%)

Deposit Growth (%)

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

>> Core Fee Income

>> Trading and Other Income

Core Operating Income

Total Income

Total Operating Expenses


>> Equity Multiplier (x)

RoE

Financial Details

Others

PBT

Tax

PAT/RoA

Exhibit: DuPont Analysis

>> Employee Expenses

>> Other Expenses

Operating Profit

Provisions

Interest Income

Interest expended

Net Interest Income

Non-Fund Based Income

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email: [email protected],

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Documents

Growth continues to accelerate. - narnolia.com · PBT Tax Will able to grow loan book in FY19 and FY20 at 30%. Expect 30-35% recovery in Security Receipts in FY19. SR has total stock