Looking Ahead 116

15

GROWING POPULATION:A MORE CROWDED WORLD

THE WORLD POPULATION WILL REACH 8 BILLION by 2024, a dozen years since its last billion, but increasing at a decreasing rate

Global Population(In Billions, CE 1-2100)

Population by Region (In Billions, 1804-2062)

World population reached its first billion around 1804. Over the last two centuries, the next 6 billion has been reached and another 4 will be added by the end of this century. However, population growth is slowing. The annual population growth between the 3rd billion and the 7th billion was 1.7%, while the expected growth from now until 2100 is 0.5%. Population growth will be strongest in Asia and Africa, which will represent 51% and 29%, respectively, of total global population by 2062

Sources: “World Population Prospects”, UN, 2014 Update; “Atlas of World Population History”, McEvedy, Colin and Richard Jones, 1978

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

2 Billion

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Years Taken toReach

each Billion

127

31

0

15

12

12

13

12

16

22

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

1804

1975

2012

2062

(7%)

(15%)(10%)(9%)(1%)

Asia

Africa

Europe

Latin America

North America

Oceania

(5%)

(29%)

(8%)

(59%)

(10%)

(17%)(8%)

(1%)

(1%)

(21.8%)

(9%) (3%) (2%)(0.2%)

(60%)

(5%)

(64%)

(4%)

(51%)

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Looking Ahead 117

DESPITE THE ONGOING FALL IN MORTALITY, DECREASING FERTILITY WILL SLOW DOWN POPULATION GROWTH with 58% of total world population below replacement rate by 2020

The drop in mortality rates (especially infant mortality and death due to infectious diseases) has been a major driver of population growth, especially in the last two centuries. However, the peak years of fast population growth are gone with global fertility rates dropping fast. By 2020, more than half the global population will be below replacement rates especially Europe and the Americas. Most growth will be in the developing world

Fertility and Mortality(Mortality In Crude Death per 1,000 Population and Fertility In Children per Woman, 1950-2100)

Population Above and Below Replacement Rate(In Billions of People, 1950-2020)

Source- Upper and Lower Charts: “World Population Prospects”, UN, 2014 Update

Forecast

Fertility

Mortality

0

5

10

15

20

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

3.2

1.9

1.2

0.1 0.03.2

2.0

1.0

0.2 0.03.2

1.9

0.8

0.50.02.8

1.8

0.6

0.40.0

2.9

2.0

0.40.3

0.22.2

1.4

0.20.2

0.4

1950

Replacement Rate (2.3)

4.5

0.40.3

0.3

3.7

0.7

2.12.7

2.8 0.7

0.10.6

2.4

0.4

0.20.7

0.40.10.1

0.1

0.7

1.4 1.7

0.3 0.7

Above

Below

1970 1990 2000 2010 2020

Latin America and the CaribbeanEuropeAsia Africa North AmericaOceania

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Looking Ahead 118

THE WORLD AS A WHOLE WILL BECOME MORE CROWDED; population density will be especially high in urban centers

The population of the world has been increasing for a long time. While in 1500 the entire world population could have fit into Florence, now it would take 26 Florences to fit everyone. Further, the share of people living in urban areas is growing which has been reflected in higher densities especially in the biggest and most dynamic cities

Land Area and Population(In Millions of People and In Square Kilometers, 1500, 1950, 1990, 2014, 2050 and 2100)

Note: (1) Based on the assumption that 4 adults fit in 1 square meterSources: World Bank Development Indicators; “World Population Prospects”, UN, 2014 Update; Maddison Historical Population Data

Land Area Taken up by World Population

Each Person Can Occupy an Area Equivalent to: (In Thousands of Square Meters, 1500, 1950, 1990, 2014, 2050 and 2100)

1500 1950 1990 2014 2050 2100

1X 6X 13X 17X 22X 26X

0.9X 0.3X 0.2X 0.9X 1.7X 10X

Area= 106 Km2 Area= 628 Km2 Area= 1,324 Km2 Area= 1,802 Km2 Area= 2,376 Km2 Area= 2,700 Km2

Area= 24.4

Sheikh Zayed Mosque

Area= 51.4

Forbidden City

Area= 17.9

The Colosseum

Population=438 Million

Area= 13.6

Empire State Building

Area= 12

Big Ben

Area= 305.3

The Pentagon

Population=2,526 Million

Population=5,320 Million

Population=7,243 Million

Population=9,551 Million

Population=10,854 Million

Area ofLandmark= 340

Area ofLandmark= 150

Area ofLandmark= 121

Area ofLandmark= 20

Area ofLandmark= 8.1

Area ofLandmark= 1.2

102Km2 = Standing space for 410

million people(1)

Florence

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Looking Ahead 119

BY 2100, HALF OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL LIVE IN FIVE COUNTRIES, and those countries will account for a third of global GDP, be relatively older and increasingly Muslim

India will become the world’s most populous country in 2028, overtaking China, which will start decreasing in population around 2030. Much of the industrialized world, particularly Europe, will start decreasing in total population by 2020; Europe will fall off the top ten population list altogether by the end of the century. Also, the population of the top five countries will be relatively old (driven by an ageing China) and increasingly Muslim (with Nigeria becoming a majority Muslim country)

Most Populous Countries over Time(In Millions and In Rank, 2010, 2020, 2050, 2080 and 2100)

Population Growth in Large Selected Countries Based on Share of Global Population(In %, 2010-2100 and In % of Total Global Population, 2010)

Sources- Upper Charts: “World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision”, UN, 2012; “The Future of the Global Muslim Population”, Pew Research, 2011; “Country-level Projections”, Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), NASA

Source- Lower Chart: “World Population Prospects”, UN, 2014 Update

2010 2020 2050 2080 2100In Millions

1,300

1,000

300

150

100

90

80

70

40

1,400+

130

1

2

3

7

9

10

15

16

30

1

2

3

6

9

11

1513

17

25

1 1

2

3

9

12

1513 14

24

1

2 2

34

613

17

23

29

4239

24

18

17

12 9

34

x Global Rank

Muslim Population

Population 65+

Global Population

TOP 5 POPULATION IN 2030

Indicators in % of World Total

29%

46%

48%

1

0.4 0.80.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.50

3

20

19

5

18

17

4

0.3

2

0.7 0.9 2.11.9 2.00.5 0.60.1 0.2

EgyptTurkey

India

US

Increasing Population and High Global Share

DecreasingPopulation and

High Global Share

Increasing Population and Low Global ShareDecreasingPopulation and

Low Global Share

Shar

e of

Glo

bal

Popu

latio

n (2

010)

Compounded Average Growth rate (2010-2100)

China

Japan Russia

Germany Philippines

Nigeria

Tanzania

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