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Green Power for Mobile Afghanistan & Pakistan specific Working group
20th – 21st August 2013
Opening session, GSMA market analysis highlight and Moderate discussion
Agenda
0930 – 1100 - Welcome speech from IFC, by Nadeem A Siddiqui of IFC
- Welcome note from Telenor, by Gyorgy Koller of Telenor
- Welcome speech from Government Minister of IT, by Anusha Rahman Ahmad Khan of Minister of IT
- GSMA market analysis highlight, by Ali Imron of GSMA
- Moderated discussion
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MECS update and Closing for Day 1
1520 – 1700 - Mobile Enabled Community Services, by Rahul Shah of GSMA
- Discussion and Closing
Operator experience sharing and Technology development
1115 – 1255 - Telenor's roadmap to green network, by Mudasar Hussain Mian of Telenor
- Cooling system, by Warwick Dawes of Coolsure
- Storage, by Yamen Saleh of NorthStar
Technology development and Business innovation
1355 – 1505 - Power Management, by Michael Kutschenreuter of Heliocentris
- Fuel cell technology and showcase, by Muhammad Haroon of Interactive Group
DAY 1: 20th AUGUST 2013
Operator experience sharing and Business innovation
Agenda
0930 – 1100 - Operator experience sharing, by S. Shaheryar Ali of Warid Telecom
- Business innovation, by M. Masud Malik of SSPL
- Business innovation , by Salman Khalili of LCC
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Site modelling and Closing
1500 – 1700 - Site modelling and business case
- Discussion and Closing
Break-out session
1115 – 1230 - Break out session
With topic CAPEX or OPEX?
- Wrap up the Working Group
Technical training
1330 – 1455 - HOMER software introduction
- Renewable energy design by HOMER software
DAY 2: 21st AUGUST 2013
Green Power for Mobile Afghanistan & Pakistan specific Working group
20th – 21st August 2013
Restricted - Confidential Information © GSMA 2012
AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN TELECOM MARKET
In 2012, the unique subscriber for Pakistan reached more than 51 million unique subscribers and Afghanistan
was more than 11 million unique subscribers.
And will reached 54 million and 12 million respectively by end of 2013.
Pakistan’s market penetration has reached almost 29% by 2012 with ratio a SIMs per subscriber is 2.17.
Afghanistan’s market penetration reached for more than 33% by 2012 with ration a SIMs per subscriber is 1.70.
2.04 2.08 2.10 2.14 2.17
1.35 1.46 1.56 1.65 1.70
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Market Penetration
PAK SIMs per subcriber AFG SIMs per subcriber
PAK Market Penetration AFG Market Penetration
41.03 43.63 45.48 48.77 51.77
6.17 7.73 9.24 10.61 11.51
-
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
s
Unique Subscriber Growth
PAK Unique Subscriber AFG Unique Subscriber
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POWER SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN
Presently the electrification rate in Pakistan is better
with 67% and followed by Afghanistan with 30%.
And the deficit of electricity is around 36%(Pak) and
17%(Afg)
(source: Ministry of Water and Power Pakistan and DABS od Afghanistan)
90%
57% 55%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pakistan Afghanistan
Electrification Rate
Urban Electrification
Rural Electrification
Electrification Rate
Community Power for Mobile
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POWER SITUATION IN TELECOM
“Currently in both of countries have a total of 38,452 tower sites with more
than 28% of them lacking access to the grid” - GPM Market Research
72%
20%
8%
2013
Grid
Unreliable Site
Off-grid
DG-Battery Hybrid, 7,812
, 72%
24x7 DG, 2,435 , 23%
Green Power, 554 , 5%
Community Power for Mobile
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5,636 2,176
1,156 1,279
550 4
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pakistan Afghanistan
Problematic Sites
Green Power
24x7 DG
DG-Battery Hybrid
7,812 2,435
Potential for Green Power
DG-Battery Hybrid
24x7 DG
POWERING TELECOM (CURRENT APPROACH)
Current Approach
To power 2,435 DG sites for 24x7, MNOs need to spend
OPEX for more than US$ 54.5 million a year.
And to power 7,812 DG battery hybrid sites, MNOs will
spend about US$ 116.6 million a year from fossil fuel.
Those cost doesn’t reflect the maintenance and overhead
cost.
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POWERING TELECOM (COST STRUCTURE)
Diesel cost dominates cost factor for powering on these
2 scenarios.
Direct cost covers cost of electricity, diesel and fuel.
Indirect cost covers cost of maintenance and overhead.
The cost structure might change by year-on-year based
on diesel market price.
23%
70%
7%
Off-grid
Indirect
Direct: Diesel
Logistic
14%
56%
6%
24%
On-grid
Maintenance
Direct: Diesel
Logistic
Direct: Electricity
Community Power for Mobile
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TOWER GROWTH
GSMA calculates based on coverage and capacity expansion with consideration of 2% blocking on the network.
GSMA estimates tower growth will reach 73,289 sites by 2016, with assumption MNOs will extend the coverage
to uncovered rural area.
Unreliable grid site will increase up to 12,914 sites for Pakistan and 3,348 sites for Afghanistan by 2016.
And by 2016 off-grid site will reach 6,073 sites for Pakistan and 2,062 sites for Afghanistan,
considering more operators go to cover rural area for the next 3 years.
5,292 9,111
33,160
64,178
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2013 2016
Tower Growth
Pakistan
Afghanistan 1,706
5,636
1,283 2,176
6,073
12,914
2,062 3,348
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Pakistan Pakistan Afghanistan Afghanistan
Off-grid Unreliable Grid Off-grid Unreliable Grid
Problematic Site Growth
2013
2016
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SAVING OPPORTUNITY
Short Term Long Term
BTS equipment modernization.
Replacing indoor BTS equipment with outdoor BTS
equipment.
Replacing AirCon with Free Cooling Unit (FCU).
Converting 24x7 DG site with DG Battery Hybrid
solution.
Converting all problematic sites to green sites.
It will require big capital to implement green sites.
Creating suitable business case to reach maximum
OPEX reduction is required.
By converting 2,435 off-grid sites from 24x7 DG configuration to DG Battery hybrid solution, MNO will save around 33% OPEX from diesel consumption
In Long Term strategy, CAPEX or OPEX Model?
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SAVING OPPORTUNITY (SHORT TERM)
MNOs can save 15.1 million litres of Diesel
consumption per year by converting 24x7 DG sites to DG
battery hybrid
Potential OPEX saving can reach around US$ 18.1
million a year
33% saving can be achieved by converting 24x7 DG to DG
battery hybrid solution.
Short Term
7,812 2,435
Potential for Green Power
DG-Battery Hybrid
24x7 DG
-
10,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
30,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
24x7 DG DG-Battery Hybrid
OPEX Cost
OPEX Cost
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
Current Approach Green Power
Mill
ion
s
Long Term
Total Fuel
OPEX Cost
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SAVING OPPORTUNITY (LONG TERM)
For 10,247 problematic sites, MNOs will be able to save
88% of their OPEX by implementing green technology
solution.
By investing US$ 38,500 of solar solution, MNOs
can save US$ 127.7 million a year for OPEX.
The total of investment for 10,247 sites reach US$ 394.5
million.
By 2016, the investment will reach US$ 939.3 million for
24,397 sites.
Long Term
88%
Community Power for Mobile OPEX MODEL
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GSMA estimates a potential saving based on PPA model will reach US$ 41.6 million by 2013 and climb to US$
104.3 million by 2016.
On ESCO , the market size is about US$ 141.9million by 2013 and will reach US$ 320.5million by
2016.
SAVING OPPORTUNITY (LONG TERM)
$127.77
$41.61
$314.51
$104.32
$-
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
CAPEX Model OPEX Model (PPA)
Mill
ion
s MNO Saving Opportunity
2013
2016
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BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Barriers Opportunities
Here is the barriers on green technology deployment
in Afghanistan & Pakistan:
Lack of green technology offered to the market
Lack of understanding on OPEX model in the
market
Less number of competitive ESCO players
Most the offered solutions are CAPEX model that
required huge investment
Good opportunity for green vendor to offer their
best solution
Huge saving can be achieve by MNOs for
implementing green power solution.
Good opportunity for financial institution on green
technology investment.
Afghanistan & Pakistan needs US$ 394.5millions
investment for green technology and will reach US$
939.3 millions by 2015.
Community Power for Mobile
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VENDOR LANDSCAPE
Please check our website: http://www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/green-power-for-mobile
Thank You!
Green Power for Mobile Afghanistan & Pakistan specific Working group
20th – 21st August 2013