31
"Green New Deal - "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Prosperity for the Danube Region" Danube Region" Dr. Jávor Benedek Chairman Sustainable Development Committee of the Parliament of Hungary July 7, 2011

"Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

  • Upload
    marlon

  • View
    23

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

"Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region". Dr. Jávor Benedek Chair man Sustainable Development Committee of the Parliament of Hungary July 7, 2011. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Citation preview

Page 1: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

"Green New Deal - "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Sustainable Economic

Prosperity for the Danube Prosperity for the Danube Region"Region"

Dr. Jávor BenedekChairman

Sustainable Development Committee of the Parliament of Hungary

July 7, 2011

Page 2: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

The triple crisis of our days (‘triple crunch’):

Economic-financial (credit crisis, debt crisis – social tensions )

Climate change (growing temperature, growing sea level, changing of the environment, deforestation, desertification, extreme weather – food crisis)

Energy (oil)(the end of the cheap oil; decreasing assets, growing drilling costs; non conventional oils; the energy-hunger of China)

Page 3: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

Solution: a Green New Deal Broad support in the political and academic scene:

◦ Stavros Dimas, European Commissioner for the Environment, 2009. march, Budapest:

„A global environmental agreement or "green New Deal" could halt the irreversible damaging effects of climate change. (…)Brussels environment protection objectives have been crafted in line with the union's goals to stimulate the economy, (…) the strategy on climate change was aimed at reducing energy dependence and creating 700,000 new jobs in the renewable energy branch of the economy. ”

◦ Green New Deal Group, eg. Larry Elliott, the economic s editor of the Guardian

◦ New Economics Foundation◦ Wuppertal Institute◦ UNEP: The Green Economy Initiative

Page 4: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

Green New Deal International examples:

◦ USA: Green elements in the fiscal package, 1-2 years, 110-120 billion USD

◦ South-Korea: Green Investment Program, 4 years, 38 billion USD

◦ Ireland: Building Ireland’s Smart Economy, 10 years 50 billion EUR

◦ EU: Energy efficiency and renewable program, 4-5 years, 200 milliárd EUR

◦ Germany, France, Japan, China, India, etc. European Greens: „Green New Deal”, 5 years, 500

billion EUR, 5 million „green collar” jobs

Page 5: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

The ‘triple crunch’ in Hungary

Economic crisis (indebtedness)Energy (external dependence,

dependence on fossils)Employement (very low level of

employement for more than a decade; unsustainable state expenditures)

Page 6: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

Indebtedness State debt: was a key factor in the falling of the state

socialism. In the 80’s it grew till 73% of the GDP in 1989. Because of the transition crisis it went to the 90% of the GDP. In the second half of the 90’ the debt decreased, mostly because of the privatisation and later because of strict fiscal policy. In 2001 it was 52%. Untill 2010 it grew again to the 80% of GDP.

Public debt: before 2008 great part of the population got ‘cheap’ credit for building/buying habitation denominated in swiss franc. The rate went up by a 40% after 2008, causing a major crisis: the current ammount of the franc debt is the 19% of the GDP.

Page 7: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

Energy dependence

External dependence: the 62,5% of the primary energy come from abroad (mostly natural gas and oil). If we count the 14,2% of nuclear energy, which get the fuel also from oter source, the total external dependence is 77%. We can produce only one-quater of our energy demand.

Dependence on fossils: In the primary energy in Hungary the natural gas is 45%, the crude oil is 23%, and the coal is 13%. 81% of our energy come from fossil sources.

Page 8: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

Energy dependency of Hungary: the energy import compared to the volume of total

export.

Page 9: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

Employement After 1989 in Hungary the transformation of the

economy from state socialism to market economy went very fast (‘shock therapy’). The former ‘full employement’ ended, millions became ‘unnecessary’. The Hungarian ‘solution’ was not to bring bact these people to the labour market by re-training, but to keep out them by early pesions and other forms of social supply.

The rate of employement is 55%, which is more than 10% lower than the European average. The employment is critically low in 3 groups:◦ Uneducated (maximum 8 classes);◦ Mothers with children of 0-3 years; ◦ People older than 55 years

Page 10: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

The economic problems of the EE area/Danube Region – historical background

The greatest problem of Eastern Eurpe and of Hungary that since the systen change of 1990 they do not have a coherent vision how to connect to the world economy, which way to chose for a real develeopment – they just accepted what came. So the crisis has a unique face in Eastern Europe.

The pillars of the system introduced in 1990 are swaying. Exept of the GDP every economic and social indicator signs a stagnation or deterioration. The wages, employement, infrastructure, innovation, knowledge, demography and social differences.

Eastern Europe became a semi-periphery again. 40 and 70 years of soviet type planned economy this region returned to the world economy to the same place where it were before (exept of Slovenia). This semi-periferical role is similar to Latin-Americas role: their real export is the low added value products and the low wages. This means stagnating living standars – among who have jobs, because this system can secure much less jobs.

Page 11: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

The economic problems of Hungary - historical bacground I.

Hungary has eated up its resources. In the past hundred years, the economic resources of Hungary steadily decreased. After the two world war and the socialist era Hungary started the 1990s with a collapsed economy and a great debt. After the privatization period the debt decreased, but after 2000 it grew again.

In 2010 we had the same rate of debt – the difference is that in 1990 we had the major part of the economy in state property, which we could sell – but now we have nothing. Meanwhile the social capital and cohesion also disappeared, so we are in a state where all our inner economic and social resources are in a very low level.

Page 12: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

The economic problems of Hungary - historical bacground II.

The indebtness is a structural problem. The debt is unsustainable because of the very low rate of employement, which make the state unfinanciable. And the low rate of employement is a clear consequense of semi-peripherial, so called „neoliberal” economic model, what we had chosen after the system change: an extremly open economy (export/GDP: 80%) and the competition with low wages.

The crisis of 2008 questioned the basis of this model. The crisis did not hit only the peripheries, but the whole world system. We need a paradigmatical change: we need a community-based re-formation of the economy, with greater state intervention and regulation, and focusing to the inner resources. The key is building a local, sustainable economy, because only this can bring higher employement and stability.

We need a Green New Deal

Page 13: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

Green New Deal in Hungary

We need to rebuild our economy with a complex program, which tackle the three crisis at the same time. Develop a low-energy (low carbon) and low-material economy, which preserves the enviroment, and offer work and livelihood to all social groups, even to the poorests.

So we need to develop those sectors, which are labour-intensives, reducing the energy and/or the raw material demand, and producing primarily to the home market.

Page 14: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

‘Sustainable’ sectors

(with the best employement capacity on the top) energy efficiency and conservation, building renovation sustainable agriculture forest management and enviroment protection waste management, zero waste technologies water and waste water management renewable energy public transport urban development education, innovation and R + D health preservation

Page 15: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], [email protected], www.parlament.hu

Examples I: building renovation

The buildings use the 40% of the energy in Hungary of which 2/3 (360 PJ p.a.) is used for heating and cooling

90% of the energy use is from fossil fuel, mostly natural gas (directly usd or through disrict heatings). The 80% of the natural gas come from russian import.

The building sector is struggling since the beginning of the crisis of 2008. It could employ low educated people in great number.

Hungarian plans: 500 bn Ft (2 bn euros) state subsidy in 4 years to renovation – 70-80.000 jobs (2%), 10-15% decrease in energy use of the buildings.

Page 16: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

Households’ specific energy consumption (kWh m-2 year-1) scaled to EU average climate.Hungary vs. CEE Member States. Average 2000-2007ECF, CEU: Employment Impacts of a Large-Scale Deep Building Energy Retrofit Programme in Hungary

Buildings: Existing inefficiency of Hungarian buildings

Page 17: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

• Direct impacts• Direct impacts - - Positive on the construction industryPositive on the construction industry- - Negative on the energy industry Negative on the energy industry • Indirect impacts • Indirect impacts - - Upstream in the supply chainUpstream in the supply chain • Induced impacts • Induced impacts - - Caused by the increased disposable income: Caused by the increased disposable income:

- - From new jobs (directly and indirectly From new jobs (directly and indirectly generated)generated)

- From energy savings- From energy savings Qualitative analysis Qualitative analysis - - Types of employment generated and skill levelsTypes of employment generated and skill levels - Geographical distribution - Geographical distribution - - Durability of the jobs (short/long-term)Durability of the jobs (short/long-term) - Supply of labour - Supply of labour

Employment Effects: a case study by CEU

Page 18: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

Page 19: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

Page 20: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

Page 21: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

Page 22: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

Page 23: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

Page 24: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], [email protected], www.parlament.hu

Costs of CO2-emission reduction

Page 25: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development CommitteeSustainable Development Committee

Possible financial sources:Possible financial sources:

1. EU funds 1. EU funds- EU 2014-2020 budgetary period: - EU 2014-2020 budgetary period: independent energy programmesindependent energy programmes- Cohesion funds: 370 billion € (2014-2020)- Cohesion funds: 370 billion € (2014-2020)- 20% of that can be used for buliding retrofit, - 20% of that can be used for buliding retrofit, energy efficiency programmes over 10 energy efficiency programmes over 10 billion € /yearbillion € /year

2. National funds2. National funds- Hungary: 15 million € for 2012 must be - Hungary: 15 million € for 2012 must be increased!increased!

Page 26: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

3. Reshaping energy expenditure3. Reshaping energy expenditure

decarbonisation instead of „pro- decarbonisation instead of „pro-carbonization” carbonization”

Stern-report (2007): Stern-report (2007): 1% of GDP is needed to mitigate 1% of GDP is needed to mitigate climate change climate change Hungary does spend almost 1% of GDP..Hungary does spend almost 1% of GDP....but mostly on fossil fuel subsidies:..but mostly on fossil fuel subsidies: - Natural gas based combined heat - Natural gas based combined heat and power (CHP) and power (CHP) - Natual gas subsidy - Natual gas subsidy - Preferential VAT of natural - Preferential VAT of natural gas based district heating gas based district heating - Coal subsidy - Coal subsidy

Page 27: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], www.parlament.huwww.parlament.hu

Examples II: local products, social cooperatives, public catering

The former agricultural cooperatives mostly disappeared after 1990 – the employement in the agricultural sector fell from 14,2% (1990) to 4,5% (2010).

Great part of the former agricultural population remained in the villages, without regular job. In lots of villages the municipality is the only employer, with schools and social services; and the municipality have lands leasing out for low rent.

Forming social cooperatives on the municipality land can give job to the unimployed, supply the kitchens of the schools and social services, reducing the maintanence cost of these institutes. The excess can be bring to the local market, reducing the role of the great commercial chains in the food supply.

This can create only some thousands of jobs, but exactly where it most needed.

Page 28: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], [email protected], www.parlament.hu

Means of the Green New Deal I. – sources

Ecological tax reform: decreasing the burden on labour, and increasing the burden on resource use and capital

◦ Tax on heavy traffic

◦ CO2 tax (gradually in 5 years)

◦ Decreasing the subsidies for the fossil sector

◦ Increasing the existing eco taxes: enviroment use fee, mining fee, land use fee

Other sources:

◦ Structural funds

◦ CO2 quotas

◦ EU GND sources (future)

From these sources, at least 400-500 bn HUF (0,8-1 bn euro) a year can

be used to the measures.

Page 29: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, 1358 Budapest, Széchenyi rkp. 19., Tel.: 441-5051, Fax: 441-5968, [email protected], [email protected], www.parlament.hu

Means of the Green New Deal II. – measures

Central investments and programmes: building renovation programme, green electricity price, building district heating systems, building water infrastructure for landscape management and against flood, supporting the education and R + D, etc.; programmes of the new EU budget period of 2014-2020 on the basis of structural funds and the agricultural fund (CAP)

Regulation: green public procurement, energy standards for buildings, stricter environmental standards in urban development, transportation, etc.

Page 30: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

1.1. Sustainable Development CommitteeSustainable Development Committee

Green New Deal for the Danube RegionGreen New Deal for the Danube Region

Green economy = Economy of futureGreen economy = Economy of future

- Picks out the region from its „semi-- Picks out the region from its „semi-peripherical” state;peripherical” state;- Meets the challanges of climate change, - Meets the challanges of climate change, e.g. CO2 reduction;e.g. CO2 reduction;- Creates jobs in greens sectors;- Creates jobs in greens sectors;- Economic activity with absolute - Economic activity with absolute decoupling (economic performance with decoupling (economic performance with decreasing ecological footprint);decreasing ecological footprint);

Page 31: "Green New Deal - Sustainable Economic Prosperity for the Danube Region"

Sustainable Development Committee Sustainable Development Committee

Green New Deal – a hope to break binding chains of history for the region

Thank you for your attention!