Green House Efect 2009 Nov Arad

7/29/2019 Green House Efect 2009 Nov Arad

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Liana Mos, MD, PhDFaculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry

West University Vasile Goldis Arad, Romania

Department of Internal Medicine

Arad, 28.11.2009

Greenhouse effect and

health
http://www.alzheimer-europe.org/Our-Research/Comparative-studieshttp://www.alzheimer-europe.org/Our-Research/Comparative-studieshttp://www.alzheimer-europe.org/Our-Research/Comparative-studies


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Climate change of the order and time frames

predicted by climate scientists poses fundamentalquestions of human security, survival and the stability

of nation states which necessitate judgments aboutpolitical and strategic risks as well as economic cost;

WHO estimates that in the year 2000, there were150,000 excess deaths per year due to climate change;

Climate change is already affecting health around theworld, and its impact on health will continue to grow.

Premises
http://www.alzheimer-europe.org/Our-Research/Comparative-studies


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Greenhouse effect - The Earth has a natural temperature control system

Certain atmospheric gases called greenhouses gases, consisting mostly of carbon dioxide(CO2), are critical for maintaining this system


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Leading sources of greenhouse gas emissions are combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas.Since pre-industrial times, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has increased

significantly - CO2 by about 31%, methane by about 150%, and nitrous oxide by about 16% (Watsonetal2001).


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Global Contributors toGreenhouse Gas Emissions

Global carbon dioxide emissions are projected toincrease by at least 50% over the next 25 yearsunder current conditions.

The dangerous level of CO2 is at MOST 450 ppm,probably less.Were now at 386 ppm.

Deforestation releases carbon stored in trees, withcurrent annual emissions of CO2 amounting to 23

billion metric tons or about 1% of total CO2 in theatmosphere.

To stabilize below 450 ppm CO2 would require thatemissions peak by 2010, with a 610% annual declinethereafter to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050.

Adapted after L. Rudolph, 2008


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Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions - 2005

Source: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory

U.S.per capita emissions of carbon are over 20 times higher than India, 12 times higherthan Brazil, and 7 times higher than China. The most current estimates state that China isabout to surpass the US in emissions and its rate of emissions is accelerating.

22,4%

18,4%

11,4%

5,6%

4,9%

4,6%

32,7%

0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0%

U.S.

China

Russia

EU

India

Japan

Others

Total CO2measured in

thousands of metric tons


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Historically, the earths climate has experienced significant changes over the last 400,000

years, going from very warm to an ice age in as rapidly as a few decades, suggesting that

our climate is quite sensitive to internal and external energies and feedback.


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Climate Change is Happening Now

Source: IPCC 2007 (4th Assessment)

This episode of global warming is due to human activity.

It began with the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago, and accelerated

over the last 40 years.The 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


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The mean global surface temperature has increased by about0.3 to 0.6C since the late 19th century. In the past fourdecades, it has increased by about 0.2 to 0.3C, which is way

beyond natural climatic cycles would explain.


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IPCC 2007: Human Impact is

Evident

Source: IPCC 2007 (4th Assessment)


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1C 2C 5C4C3C

Sea level rise

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularlydeveloping regions

0C

Falling yields in many

developed regions

Extinction of animal & plant species

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and

abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water

availability in many areas, including

Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers

disappear water

supplies threatened in

several areas

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in

some high latitude regions450 ppm CO2 eq

650 ppm CO2 eq

Projected Impacts of GlobalTemperature Change

Source: L. Rudolph, 2008

Declining

food yields

Adapted after L. Rudolph, 2008

Food

Water

Ecosystems

ExtremeWeather

Events

Risk of Abrupt and

Major Irreversible

Changes


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Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

Effects of rising sea level

Coastal areas will become

vulnerable to storms and

flooding

Loss of coastal wetlands and

erosion of beaches

Contamination of drinking

water


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Climate Change: Floods & Droughts

Warmer temperatures can result

in premature and rapid

snowmelt

Severe floodingmay occur

during winter and spring, with

slower water flow duringsummer seasons


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Climate Change: Wildfires

Wildfires

Climate models predict the

summer months will be longer,and hotter,due to global

warming

Result:dry soil and vegetation

become fuel for wildfires


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Climate Changes Impacts on Health

Source: Haines, et al, JAMA 2004


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Health Impacts of Heat Waves

Health impacts likely to be seen 1 to 3 daysafter the onset of the heat waves

Health effects of extreme and prolonged heat

exposure include: heat cramps, heat stroke, heatsyncope

Devastating heat wavesseen elsewhere

August 2003 European heat wave: 35,000 excessdeaths


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Extreme Weather Events & Disease Clusters

Source: Epstein, Harvard Center for Health & Global Environment


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Potential Environmental Impacts ofClimate Change: Air Quality

Increased temperature andincreased carbon dioxide inatmosphere leads to Increase in formation of ground-

level ozone (and smog)

Increased allergen production (e.g.

pollen) Longer seasons for allergen

producing weeds

Senior citizens, children, and people with respiratory and chronic diseasesare most vulnerable to high levels of ozone and increased allergens

Health effects of high levels of ozone exposure include: Reduced lung function

Respiratory discomfort

Exacerbation of chronic respiratory illnesses (e.g. asthma)


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Health Effects of Air Pollution

Amount of goods transportedthrough California projected tonearly quadruple between 2000and 20201

Will have significant impact onair quality and health2

Diesel particulate matter (PM) concentrated around ports,

railyards, and heavily traffickedroads3

premature deaths

cancerrespiratory disease

lost workdays

global warming (2nd to CO2)

Annual Health Impacts in CAfrom PM and Ozone4

1 (Cal EPA, 2005); 2 (Pacific Institute, 2006)3 (CA/EPA Air Resources Board); 4 (CA/EPA Air Resources Board, 2004)


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The most vulnerable ecological and socio-economic systems are those with the greatest

sensitivity to climate change and the least

ability to adapt.

Ecosystems that are already under stress are

particularly vulnerable. Socio-economicsystems tend to be more vulnerable in

developing countries with weaker economies

and institutions.


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Adapting to Impacts of Climate

Change The potential impacts of climate change on the environment

and socio-economic systems can be understood in terms ofsensitivity, adaptabilityandvulnerabilityof the system;

Sensitivitydegree to which a system will respond to anygiven change in climate, e.g., the ecosystems composition,

structure & function; Adaptabilitydegree to which adjustments are possible in a

systems practices, processes or structures in response to, or inanticipation of the changed condition, whether spontaneous or

planned;

Vulnerabilityextent to which climate change may damage orharm a system. It depends not only on the systems sensitivity

but also on its ability to adapt.


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What to Address?

Threatened food securitywarming could affectfood production and could reduce global food supply;

Inundation of coastal areasrise in sea level and

increased precipitation put to risk low-lying areasspecial in small islands;

Water shortage in inland areashigher temperaturesand intense hydrological cycles heighten effects of

drought or dry spells; Health risksclimate warming could bring about

new breed of disease-bearing organisms, heat waves;


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Adaptation

We need to prepare now for the inevitable

effects of climate change

Good news: preparing for one type of

emergency prepares us for all types of

emergencies

Preparation minimizes impact of disasters and

fear/anxiety


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Strategies for Adaptation

Preventing losses, for example, by building barriers against sealevel rise or reforesting hillsides to prevent erosion.

Reducing losses by redesigning crop mix to ensure aguaranteed minimum production even during the worstconditions.

Sharing burden with those worst affected by conducting reliefoperations and mobilizing resources.

Changing or shifting activity or relocating production sites toareas less vulnerable.

Restoring damage sites especially historical ones or those thatare of great cultural importance to communities.


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Vulnerability


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What Should We Do?

1. Reduce, Reuse, Recycle- Reduce energy usage and GHG emissions

- As individuals, at home

- As organizations, at work

2. Prepare for impact of climate change = Adaptation

- As individuals/families- As local health department

3. Advocate for healthy policies

- Support legislation that reduces GHG emissions

- Support sustainable lifestyles & communities


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Multi-level prevention approachcan be taken to respond to climate change Primary prevention = climate change mitigation

Efforts to slow, stabilize, reverse climate change by reducing GHGemissions

Efforts will occur in sectors such as energy and transportation

Secondary/tertiary prevention = climate change adaptationEfforts to minimize health burden of climate change similar for other

uncertainties (e.g. pandemic flu, bioterrorist attack), in adaptation efforts

Health co-benefits

Benefits of climate change that have apositive effect on health

Example: promote cleaner energy production and cleaner fuels

Primary result = reduced GHG emissions from energy productionCo-benefit = less air pollution = less respiratory distress

Strategy: reducing vehicle miles traveled

Primary result = lower motor vehicle GHG emissions

Co-benefit = higher physical activity rate

Source: Frumkin, et al., AJPH 3/08

Ex. Reducing GHG Emissions


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Transport

Fuel efficiency

Hybrids

Road to rail

Public transport

Non-motorizedtransport

Buildings

Day lighting

Energy efficiency

Improved cook stoves

Solar heating & cooling

Agriculture

Crop & land

management

Livestock & manure

management

Improved N fertilizer

use

Industry

Energy efficiency

Heat & power recovery

Energy supply Coal to gas

Nuclear power

Renewable energy* Items in green have health co-benefits!*The green ones on this list, for example, have health co-benefits. .


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Ex - GHG reductions in 4 cities would avoid

(through 2020)

64,000 premature deaths

65,000 chronic bronchitis cases

37 million person-days of restricted activity or work

loss

Sources: IPCC (2001); Caton (2000); Blomqvist (2000); Cifuentes (2001)


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Ex. Climate Benefits of ReducedMeat Consumption

Reductions

Greenhouse gas emissions

Antibiotic use

Water pollution (nitrates)

Air pollution

Soil erosion

Unsustainable H2O

consumption

Pesticide Use

Reductions

Ischemic heart disease

Obesity

Colorectal cancer

Breast & prostate cancers

Type II Diabetes

Antibiotic resistance

Respiratory disease

Pesticide health effects

Average European diet requires the production of extra 1.5 CO2 compared to a strictly vegetarian

diet. 2.2 pounds beef = CO2 of 155 miles driving. Meat consumption reduction of 20% = switch

from Camry sedan to Prius

Increases

Biodiversity

Global food security

Protein intake equity

Rural community

strength

Borrowed from L. Rudolph


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What Can We Do to Combat GlobalWarming?

Establish recycling programs in the workplace andhome Recycling half of your household waste = hundreds of

lbs. of CO2 saved per year

Promote energy efficiency in the home and workplace

Changing regular light bulbs to compact fluorescentbulb throughout your house = hundreds of lbs of CO2/yr

Make small energy use changes on a broad scale E.g. replacing all light bulbs with energy efficient light

bulbs in all County buildings

Encourage renewable energy power sources (solarenergy and wind energy) and responsible use ofenergy Turning off your TV, computer, and other electronics =

thousands of lbs. of CO2 saved per year
http://systemsintegrationtechnologies.com/images/recycle.jpg


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Try to drive less and walk more! You save gas money and keep our air

cleaner for every mile you dont drive

Most car trips taken in your neighborhoodare short enough to walk or bike

Encourage carpooling towork/school

Encourage public transportation

use

Purchase fuel-efficient vehicles (e.g. electric, hybrid, CNG vehicles)

Every gallon of gas saved = tens of lbs. of CO2 saved

If you do take a car, maintain it

Properly inflated tires can improve gas mileage by 3%


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What else Should We Do?

Educateourselves, public, and policy makers

Partnerships and collaboration

Behavior change

Carbon footprint reduction

Increase research: health co-benefits

Protect vulnerable populations

Monitor health impacts of climate change

Preparedness and adaptation

Borrowed from L. Rudolph


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The Time for Inaction Has Past! Scale of threat is global: touches all, everywhere

Intensity of the threat: threatens all of our basic survival

mechanisms - food, water, shelter, and health. Scale of response: must engage every sector of society

Timeframe for response: we have at most 10 years - not 10years to decide upon action, but 10 years to alter fundamentally

the trajectory of global greenhouse emissions."

There is still time, but just barely. (Dr. JamesHansen, director of NASA Goddard Institute for Space

Studies)


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Fighting climate change is aligned with protectingand promoting health, many of the proposedsolutions for climate change are healthy foreveryone

We have the appropriate skills:

Skills to effect behavior change;

Skills that can help people adopt greenerbehaviors too;

Policy and advocacy skills that will helpencourage organizational and societal changes.


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...It is man-made and it can be overcome and eradicated

by the actions of human beings.

N l M d l

Plenty to be worried aboutbut bigchance to play a key role in achieving a

global solution, revitalised health

promotionand true sustainability!

Documents

Green House Efect 2009 Nov Arad