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Greece gets a government, and eurozone breathes a sight of relief.
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The Greek elections in May marked the collapse of the two-party
dominance of the centre-right New Democracy (ND) and the
Socialists (PASOK) as well as the emergence of more radical
forces - the Radical Left (SYRIZA) and the extreme right (Golden
Dawn). The outcome of the election was paralyzing
fragmentation.
The latest elections revealed a shift in electoral attitudes. Under
the pressure of a looming currency default and the failure of the
May elections, parties and voters became more risk-averse and
half-heartedly regrouped.
While May’s election was seen as a punishment vote against
established parties, who are considered responsible for the
current crisis and a brutal austerity programme, the June results
could be seen as reflecting an overall expression of fear.
The numbers speak for themselves: both ND and SYRIZA
increased their share of the vote by more than ten percentage
points, and there was a clear dwindling of support for the centre-
left and extreme left (for example, the Communists dropped from
the fifth-largest representation in parliament to the smallest,
going from 26 to 12 seats.
This polarisation is indicative of the June electoral discourse,
which was represented by two arguments. The first argument,
which was led by ND, considered Greece’s participation in the
eurozone to be an absolute priority, and warned against the
disastrous consequences of a potential withdrawal from the
single currency area.
The other major political discourse was championed by SYRIZA,
and focused on messages of change in the Greek political
landscape and the need to rebalance Greece’s relationship with
its European partners.
In essence, the election - even more clearly than the May poll -
presented a choice between a ‘pro-Memorandum’ direction and
an ‘anti-Memorandum’ direction; it was a question of whether to
stay in the euro at all costs - or not.
The majority of Greeks see the eurozone as a protective shield
and were therefore reluctant to take the risk of potentially going
back to an immensely devaluated drachma. The June election
putched the people’s fear of an unknown future outside the
eurozone and their anger at the deteriorating standards of living.
Fear of the unknown was a decisive factor.
This electoral preference was reflected in parties’ rhetoric. SYRIZA
attempted to shift from its unilateral denouncement of the
memorandum towards a more moderate strategy focused on
renegotiations while also trying to stay in the euro.
This shift, along with wide popular support for SYRIZA, led the
other parties to mitigate their positions and to declare that they
Much of Europe and the world held
its breath as the Greeks voted on
17 June. This was an election that
was widely perceived as
determining Greece’s future in the
eurozone.
In the end, New Democracy, a pro-
European and pro-bailout party
won a mandate to form a coalition
government, taking nearly 30% of
the vote.
Antonis Samaras, the ND leader
(pictured), has now been sworn in
as prime minister.
SYRIZA, the radical left party that
came second in the inconclusive
election in May, won more than a
quarter of the vote - up from an
already impressive (and record)
score of 16.78% a month ago.
With such a large proportion of the
Greek population voting for a party
that wants to renegotiate the terms
of the bailout agreement, and
others voting for parties that would
quit the eurozone altogether, the
Greek and European political and
economic landscape remain fragile.
Parliamentary elections would also seek a renegotiation of the Memorandum, in effect
dampening the discourse and the divide on this issue.
The New Democracy (ND) leader, Antonis Samaras, initiated
discussions to form a coalition government. In his victory speech
he said that he would pursue the establishment of a ‘national
salvation’ government with all political forces willing to work
towards this direction, and pledged to meet the country’s
international obligations.
The SYRIZA leader, Alexis Tsipras, immediately turned down
Samaras’s proposal to join a coalition government, stating that
SYRIZA would remain the main opposition party.
A third round of elections was out of the question, and against
the backdrop of domestic and international pressure to form a
government without further delay, negotiations were successfully
concluded between ND, the Socialists (PASOK), and the
Democratic Left (DIMAR). Talks focused on defining the policy
framework for the new administration and the cabinet line-up. Mr
Samaras was sworn into office late on Wednesday 20 June and his
cabinet is to be named the following day.
Although neither PASOK nor DIMAR will provide any frontline
members for the cabinet, they have asked for ideologically-
aligned figures to join the new government. PASOK in particular
requested the creation of a ‘national negotiation team’, to lead
the renegotiation of bailout terms.
DIMAR focused on policy proposals, such as the extension of the
fiscal adjustment programme and the revocation of certain
exceptionally tough austerity measures.
Renegotiating the terms of the Memorandum, while respecting
the country’s commitments to its creditors, is going to be the top
priority of the new government. Further priorities include
boosting market liquidity and putting in place growth policies,
supporting the unemployed and lower income groups, enacting a
structural public administration reform, proceeding with
privatisation, and making optimal use of EU funds to finance
major infrastructure projects.
Due to anticipated intra-coalition frictions and fierce opposition
from anti-Memorandum parties, the coalition is expected to be a
rather fragile government of limited duration, probably until the
European elections of 2014.
Votes
Composition of Parliament
Original text by the team at Advocate/Burson-Marsteller, Burson-
Marsteller’s affiliate in Greece. Visit www.advocate-bm.gr
Electoral attitudes
Exit polls following the elections have provided important insights on electoral attitudes:
42.4% of voters cast their ballots to express their opposition to the Memorandum.
37.9% voted in order to ensure Greece’s position in the eurozone.
45.4% of those who cast an ‘anti-Memorandum’ vote made a positive choice to support their party.
45.9% of those who cast a ‘pro-eurozone’ vote supported a party mainly out of necessity to support the country’s European course.
83.4% of ‘pro-eurozone’ voters were mainly interested in the formation of a strong government. They wanted the government to implement further reforms deriving from the EU/IMF bailout programme so that political and financial stability can be restored.
Election facts
The extreme-right Golden Dawn party retained its share of the vote, a score that is largely seen as reflecting an anti-system vote of anger, even though this time party representatives were exposed to the media, and voters had the chance to get acquainted with their rhetoric and practices. In one TV debate, a Golden Dawn member hit a female MP.
Parties failing to overcome the three per cent threshold to enter Parliament accounted for only 5.98% of the total vote, compared to 19.03% in May.
DIMAR will take part in the coalition government to prevent further elections and as a result has turned it into a key player. Its participation will provide the coalition government with a broader popular mandate and wider legitimacy.