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Greek elections insight by Burson-Marsteller

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Greece gets a government, and eurozone breathes a sight of relief.

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Page 1: Greek elections insight by Burson-Marsteller

The Greek elections in May marked the collapse of the two-party

dominance of the centre-right New Democracy (ND) and the

Socialists (PASOK) as well as the emergence of more radical

forces - the Radical Left (SYRIZA) and the extreme right (Golden

Dawn). The outcome of the election was paralyzing

fragmentation.

The latest elections revealed a shift in electoral attitudes. Under

the pressure of a looming currency default and the failure of the

May elections, parties and voters became more risk-averse and

half-heartedly regrouped.

While May’s election was seen as a punishment vote against

established parties, who are considered responsible for the

current crisis and a brutal austerity programme, the June results

could be seen as reflecting an overall expression of fear.

The numbers speak for themselves: both ND and SYRIZA

increased their share of the vote by more than ten percentage

points, and there was a clear dwindling of support for the centre-

left and extreme left (for example, the Communists dropped from

the fifth-largest representation in parliament to the smallest,

going from 26 to 12 seats.

This polarisation is indicative of the June electoral discourse,

which was represented by two arguments. The first argument,

which was led by ND, considered Greece’s participation in the

eurozone to be an absolute priority, and warned against the

disastrous consequences of a potential withdrawal from the

single currency area.

The other major political discourse was championed by SYRIZA,

and focused on messages of change in the Greek political

landscape and the need to rebalance Greece’s relationship with

its European partners.

In essence, the election - even more clearly than the May poll -

presented a choice between a ‘pro-Memorandum’ direction and

an ‘anti-Memorandum’ direction; it was a question of whether to

stay in the euro at all costs - or not.

The majority of Greeks see the eurozone as a protective shield

and were therefore reluctant to take the risk of potentially going

back to an immensely devaluated drachma. The June election

putched the people’s fear of an unknown future outside the

eurozone and their anger at the deteriorating standards of living.

Fear of the unknown was a decisive factor.

This electoral preference was reflected in parties’ rhetoric. SYRIZA

attempted to shift from its unilateral denouncement of the

memorandum towards a more moderate strategy focused on

renegotiations while also trying to stay in the euro.

This shift, along with wide popular support for SYRIZA, led the

other parties to mitigate their positions and to declare that they

Much of Europe and the world held

its breath as the Greeks voted on

17 June. This was an election that

was widely perceived as

determining Greece’s future in the

eurozone.

In the end, New Democracy, a pro-

European and pro-bailout party

won a mandate to form a coalition

government, taking nearly 30% of

the vote.

Antonis Samaras, the ND leader

(pictured), has now been sworn in

as prime minister.

SYRIZA, the radical left party that

came second in the inconclusive

election in May, won more than a

quarter of the vote - up from an

already impressive (and record)

score of 16.78% a month ago.

With such a large proportion of the

Greek population voting for a party

that wants to renegotiate the terms

of the bailout agreement, and

others voting for parties that would

quit the eurozone altogether, the

Greek and European political and

economic landscape remain fragile.

Page 2: Greek elections insight by Burson-Marsteller

Parliamentary elections would also seek a renegotiation of the Memorandum, in effect

dampening the discourse and the divide on this issue.

The New Democracy (ND) leader, Antonis Samaras, initiated

discussions to form a coalition government. In his victory speech

he said that he would pursue the establishment of a ‘national

salvation’ government with all political forces willing to work

towards this direction, and pledged to meet the country’s

international obligations.

The SYRIZA leader, Alexis Tsipras, immediately turned down

Samaras’s proposal to join a coalition government, stating that

SYRIZA would remain the main opposition party.

A third round of elections was out of the question, and against

the backdrop of domestic and international pressure to form a

government without further delay, negotiations were successfully

concluded between ND, the Socialists (PASOK), and the

Democratic Left (DIMAR). Talks focused on defining the policy

framework for the new administration and the cabinet line-up. Mr

Samaras was sworn into office late on Wednesday 20 June and his

cabinet is to be named the following day.

Although neither PASOK nor DIMAR will provide any frontline

members for the cabinet, they have asked for ideologically-

aligned figures to join the new government. PASOK in particular

requested the creation of a ‘national negotiation team’, to lead

the renegotiation of bailout terms.

DIMAR focused on policy proposals, such as the extension of the

fiscal adjustment programme and the revocation of certain

exceptionally tough austerity measures.

Renegotiating the terms of the Memorandum, while respecting

the country’s commitments to its creditors, is going to be the top

priority of the new government. Further priorities include

boosting market liquidity and putting in place growth policies,

supporting the unemployed and lower income groups, enacting a

structural public administration reform, proceeding with

privatisation, and making optimal use of EU funds to finance

major infrastructure projects.

Due to anticipated intra-coalition frictions and fierce opposition

from anti-Memorandum parties, the coalition is expected to be a

rather fragile government of limited duration, probably until the

European elections of 2014.

Votes

Composition of Parliament

Original text by the team at Advocate/Burson-Marsteller, Burson-

Marsteller’s affiliate in Greece. Visit www.advocate-bm.gr

Electoral attitudes

Exit polls following the elections have provided important insights on electoral attitudes:

42.4% of voters cast their ballots to express their opposition to the Memorandum.

37.9% voted in order to ensure Greece’s position in the eurozone.

45.4% of those who cast an ‘anti-Memorandum’ vote made a positive choice to support their party.

45.9% of those who cast a ‘pro-eurozone’ vote supported a party mainly out of necessity to support the country’s European course.

83.4% of ‘pro-eurozone’ voters were mainly interested in the formation of a strong government. They wanted the government to implement further reforms deriving from the EU/IMF bailout programme so that political and financial stability can be restored.

Election facts

The extreme-right Golden Dawn party retained its share of the vote, a score that is largely seen as reflecting an anti-system vote of anger, even though this time party representatives were exposed to the media, and voters had the chance to get acquainted with their rhetoric and practices. In one TV debate, a Golden Dawn member hit a female MP.

Parties failing to overcome the three per cent threshold to enter Parliament accounted for only 5.98% of the total vote, compared to 19.03% in May.

DIMAR will take part in the coalition government to prevent further elections and as a result has turned it into a key player. Its participation will provide the coalition government with a broader popular mandate and wider legitimacy.