Russell G. Kreis Jr., USEPA, Office of Research and Development,National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Mid-

Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN and Grosse Ile, MI

Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement Annex 4 – Nutrients

Lake Erie Phosphorus Loading and Cladophora Updates

EPA Science Advisory

BoardJune 21, 2016

Chicago, IL

Phosphorus Loading –Modeling and Task Team Usage

• Dolan and Chapra (2012) JGLR: Total Phosphorus (TP) by Source Category through 2008

• Heidelberg Maumee and Tributary Monitoring Database: TP through 2013

• Provisional TP Load Calculations by Dolan: 2009 through 2011

• Provisional Dissolved Phosphorus Load Calculations by Dolan2005 and 2007 (EcoFore)

• Preliminary TP and Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (SRP) Load Calculations by Maccoux et al through 2013 (to be discussed further)

Phosphorus Loading –Ongoing Effort/Update

• Environment and Climate Change Canada –Contract with Private Sector (Maccoux)

• Document/Update Methodology of Dolan and Chapra (2012)

• Update Lake Erie TP Loads through 2013Re-examine 2003 – 2008 TP Loads

• Calculate Soluble Reactive Phosphorus Loads from 2009-2013

3

Lake Erie Phosphorus Loading Update - 1

• Maccoux et al, JGLR in review

• Method and Data Source Documentation Provided• Update of TP Loads through 2013 Completed• Increase in Yearly Sample Size (~3X) for 2012-2013

Thames (Ont), Sydenham (Ont), Clinton (MI), and Grand (Ont)

• Lakewide TP Loads Relative to Dolan and Chapra (2012):Approximately 2.6 % Greater (2003-2008)

Lake Erie Phosphorus Loading Update - 2• Maccoux et al, JGLR in review

• Soluble Reactive P (SRP) Loading for 2009 thru 2013 Completed

• Direct Comparison to Provisional Dolan 2007 (EcoFore) - Is Not Available at this Time- Relative Magnitude of Primary Tributary Loads are

Consistent

Lake Erie Cladophora Modeling

• Michigan Technological University• Great Lakes Cladophora Model (GLCM)• Computed Dose-Response• Lake-wide TP Load

Recommendation of 7000 MTA

6

Lake Erie Cladophora –Task Team Deliberations

• Generic Eastern Basin Shoreline Model Application versus a Site Specific Application

• Series of Relationships using Modeled, Ratios, and Estimated Parameters, Particularly SRP

• Task Team:Could Not Recommend Targets for CladophoraWith Confidence

7

Lake Erie Cladophora Modeling Update

• Environment and Climate Change CanadaIn review, Journal of Great Lakes ResearchCladophora Growth Model (CGM)

• Michigan Technological UniversityTBA, Journal of Great Lakes ResearchGreat Lakes Cladophora Model (GLCM)

8

Cladophora Update State of Knowledge of Cladophora Workshop

NOAA-GLERL, Ann Arbor (hosted by Craig Stow)January 26-28, 2016

Convened by Annex 10 (Science) and Annex 4 (Nutrients)Facilitated by the Lake Erie Millennium NetworkSessions: Modeling, Monitoring, Biology, Research Approximately 50 Attendees with 25 Presentations

Plus Facilitated Discussions and Breakout GroupsExecutive Summary has been Distributed

9

Cladophora Update – Workshop Selected Findings - Highlights

• Continue water quality model framework coupling and linking efforts, to the Great Lakes CladophoraModel and Cladophora Growth Model pursuant to both lake-wide and high-resolution nearshore models.

• Develop an explicit benthic boundary layer in models that can characterize and quantify microscale nutrient gradients, biodeposits, and nutrient cycling and exchange by dreissenid mussels, related to Cladophora.

• Enhance model sloughing algorithms for timing and temperature and integrate predictions with transport and fate modules to forecast the deposition of Cladophora on beaches.

• Develop a binational, coordinated Cladophora surveillance program that includes remote sensing and ground-truthing.

• Establish sentinel time-series concurrent sampling of multiple constituents over a growing season preferably at bi-weekly intervals at least one reference site and one impacted site per lake for each of the Great Lakes except Lake Superior.

• Develop a standard measurement of in-lake Cladophora biomass and on the shoreline.• Develop a standard measurement and timing for estimating phosphorus storage (tissue

concentration) in Cladophora.• Convene a small expert panel to review updated Cladophora efforts and results and set targets for

the mitigation of Lake Erie Cladophora.

10

11

Target P*Load(MTA)

Target P**Concentration

(µg/L)

CHL A**Concentration

(µg/L)Secchi

(m)TrophicStatus

Lake Superior 3400 5 1 8 oligo

Lake Michigan 5600 7 1 - 3 9 - 12 oligo/meso

Lake Huron 2800 5 0.5 – 1.5 8 oligo

Georgian Bay 620 5

North Channel 520 5

Saginaw Bay 440 15 5 - 10 1 - 3 eutro

Lake Erie 11000

Western Basin 15 5 - 10 1 - 3 eutro

Central Basin 10 3 - 6 4 - 8 meso

Eastern Basin 10 1 - 3 6 - 9 oligo/meso

Lake Ontario 7000 10 1 - 3 6 - 9 oligo/meso

* Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, 1972; 1978; 1983; 1987** Great Lakes Water Quality Board, IJC, 1978

Target Phosphorus Loads and Associated Endpoints for the Great Lakes

6/15/2016 13

Lake Superior

Lake Michigan

Lake Huron

Lake Erie

Great Lakes Annual Total Phosphorus Loads thru 2008 (Thousands of Metric Tons/Year - MTA)

Target

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Thou

sand

s of

Met

ric T

ons

0

5

10

15

20

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Thou

sand

s of

Met

ric T

ons

0

5

10

15

20

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Thou

sand

s of

Met

ric T

ons

0

5

10

15

20

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Thou

sand

s of

Met

ric T

ons

0

5

10

15

20

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Thou

sand

s of

Met

ric T

ons

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Lake Ontario

57572828

121121

132132

137137

156156

241241

325325

2016

81475

4949

7979105105

202202

264264

279279

366452452

475

2,0402,0403,8123,812

179179

206206

1,105

3232

3535

37374141

41414545

2828

5959

5959

6464

80808383

120120

137137

189189

240240

502502

2828

40269

4242

4343

5858

107107

124124

136136

201201

396396

601601

637637

658658

3232

3434

5252

6767

6969

8686

9090

7474

6262

100100

195195

210210

239239

240240

506506

575575

2828

29294141

61617777

9898

Legend

Connecting Channel

Total Phosphorus: > 100 MTA100

500

Total Phosphorus: < 100 MTA

Great Lakes Tributary Total Phosphorus Loads (MTA)

2008

24

26

22

152

235

6157

22

6/15/2016 15

Percent Total Phosphorus Loading by Major Source Category

for Each Great Lake, 2008

Adopted from Dolan and Chapra 2012

Monitored Tributaries

Unmonitored Tributaries

Municipal Point Sources

Atmospheric

Industrial Point Sources

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tota

l Pho

spho

rus L

oad

(MTA

)

YearDirect Point Source Indirect Point SourceTributary Monitored Adjustment for Unmonitored AreaAtmospheric Lake Huron Input

Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loadings 1994-2008

Courtesy of Dolan & Chapra

Lake Huron Total Phosphorus Loading to the St. Clair – Detroit River Complex

(Dolan and Chapra 2012; Chapra and Dolan 2012)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

TP L

oads

(MTA

)