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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 1
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 1
Introductory Remarks for the Workshop
Brent Lofgren and Andrew Gronewold
Workshop on Methods for Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology
Muskegon, MI
August 27, 2012
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 2
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Credits
Facilitation and Planning Committee
David Bidwell, Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment (U. of Michigan and Michigan State U.)
Allison Steiner, Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences Dept., U. of Michigan
Logistical Arrangements and Miscellaneous Help
Anthony Acciaioli, Co-op Inst. For Limnology and Ecosystems Res.
Dennis Donahue, GLERL Lake Michigan Field Station
Mike Ryan, Mary Baumgartner, and Cathy Darnell, GLERL Ann Arbor
On-site Assistance
DJ Henman, GLERL Lake Michigan Field Station
Kevin Strychar, Grand Valley State U.
Denise Herzhaft and staff, USS Silversides Museum
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 3
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Food!
Lunches
Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment (GLISA)
Snacks
Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research (CILER)
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 4
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Credits
Keynote Speakers
Discussants
All Presenters and Participants
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 5
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Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory – Ann Arbor, MI Page 5
NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Marie Colton, Director
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 6
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Personnel
50 federal, 20 Cooperative Institute and contract
12 physical science, 25 biological and ecological, 9 observing systems, 10 field operations
Co-located: Thunder Bay NMS, NOAA Habitat Restoration Team, NOAA Great Lakes Regional Collaboration Team, International Association for Great Lakes Research
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 7
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Temperature Pressure
Clouds
Humidity
Wind
Sfc temperature Sfc roughness Sfc moisture
Sensible heat
Upward longwaveFriction
Downward longwave
Sfc albedo
Latent heat/evap
Upward solar
Downward solar Upward longwave
Precip
The Real World (simplified)
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 8
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Temperature
Pressure
Clouds
Humidity
Wind
Sfc temperature Sfc roughness Sfc moisture
Sensible heat
Upward longwaveFriction
Downward longwave
Sfc albedo
Latent heat/evap
Upward solar
Downward solar Upward longwave
Precip
Evap
Drastic simplification
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 9
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Temperature
Pressure
Clouds
Humidity
Wind
Sfc temperature Sfc roughness Sfc moisture
Sensible heat
Upward longwaveFriction
Downward longwave
Sfc albedo
Upward solar
Downward solar Upward longwave
Precip
Evap
Latent heat/evap
Redundant variable
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 10
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Differences in surface energy fluxes, averaged globally and annually, in the 2×CO2, solar, and stabilized cases, relative to control. “Sfc. net SW” refers to the net surface absorption
(incident minus reflected) of solar radiation, and “Sfc. net LW” refers ...
Bala G et al. PNAS 2008;105:7664-7669
©2008 by National Academy of Sciences
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 11
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Key quotation
“The residual change in precipitation that we find in the stabilized case is an indication that the hydrological sensitivity of the climate system depends on the forcing mechanisms.” Bala et al. 2008, PNAS
This is similar to the difference between calibrating an offline hydrologic model to air temperature variability that is mainly due to the seasonal cycle (solar or net radiation) and applying it to trends due to greenhouse gases.
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 12
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Organizing questions for this workshop
1. How do we bridge the gap between climate projection and hydrologic projection?
2. How do we make this fully self-consistent and serve the needs of those interested in surface-atmosphere interaction and those interested in surface water budgets?
3. What is the role of empirical and process-based models in a non-stationary regime?
4. How do we educate impacts researchers and the general public about relevant caveats in simulations of hydrologic impacts of climate change?
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 13
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Ideal Outcome
We don’t just think, but know, how to determine climate change’s effects on hydrology
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 14
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More Realistic
Present different methods aimed at different aspects of the hydrologic system
Discuss strengths and weaknesses of different methods
Brainstorm new ideas to try—applicable in a variety of geographic contexts
Satisfy the needs of both hydrologic and atmospheric scientists based on surface water and energy budgets
Make strides toward review article and further research
Potential large collaborative project
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory– Ann Arbor, MI Page 15
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Thanks to all for coming. Have a great workshop and a great visit to Muskegon.