50 Power Politics October 2010

Recently a 'political' novel, Shengshi:Zhongguo 2013 (the Fat Year of China),written by Taiwanese art critic Chan Koon-chung was released in Hong Kong. Today

everyone understands the meaning of 'fat years.' To maintain a tempo close to a double-digit

growth, the Communist regime in Beijing hasbecome an ogre devouring energy world-wide. Mostof the raw materials (such as oil, gas, wood,minerals, etc.) necessary to feed the economicengine can be 'bought' from outside China, exceptfor one: water. Water is therefore crucial to the survival of the

Chinese model for two main reasons: the first is thatthe energy generated by hydropower plants is badlyneeded for the economy. China's theoretical hydro-power resources have been estimated at 384gigawatts. Most of this potential comes from theTibetan plateau (the purported dam on the YarlungTsangpo/Brahmaputra itself has a potential of 38gigawatts).The second reason why water is so important to

China is because the leaders need to feed more than1.3 billion people. In the 1980's, the Americanagronomist Lester Brown wrote a book, Who Will

Feed China in which he studied the cases of Japan,Korea and Taiwan. The conversion of agriculturalland for other uses (factories, residential areas,airports, roads, flyovers, etc…) had provoked theloss of 52% of Japan's grain harvested areas, 46% ofKorea's and 42% of Taiwan's, while more and morewaters were being used for industrial purposes.Brown deducted that the same process will occur in

Grave implications of

Chinese Hydro Projects

EnvironmEnt

If China decides

to build its dam

on the

Brahmaputra, it

will not only

divert large chunks of

waters feeding Assam and

Bangladesh but also create

havoc in these eco-sensitive

areas, contends South India

-based author and

journalist Claude arpi.

Great Bend of Brahmaputra

Three Gorges Dam

October 2010 Power Politics 51

EnvironmEnt

China and ultimately China will be unable to feedits own people. A real nightmare for Beijing!The most acute problems facing China today are

food and water. The future of the Middle Kingdomdepends on the success or failure of the presentEmperors to tackle these issues which are closelyinterlinked and, if not solved, are bound to havegrave social, political and strategic consequences forthe Chinese nation and indirectly for its neighbours.

With this in mind, Beijing engaged in theconstruction of mega-dams in the 1980's (underPremier Li Peng, himself an hydrological engineer).During the past 25 years, China has built some ofthe largest hydroelectric plants in the world. TheThree Gorges Dam started in 1994 has a capacity of22,000 megawatts. Some 13 cities, 140 towns, and1,600 villages were submerged under the world'slargest reservoir. More than 1.3 million people weredisplaced. Its cost was $ 37 billion.Despite these mega

projects, however, water hasbecome a rare commodity inthe Middle Kingdom. One ofthe solutions to save China isto divert the waters from thehydraulically rich South to thethirsty North which has halfthe population but only 15%of the freshwater.

Waters will be diverted viathree channels in the eastern,central and western regions,using dams, tunnels andcanals to draw 45 billioncubic meters of waterupstream. It will cost $ 62billion to complete and 350,000 people will have tobe relocated.

The western route would draw water from theTibetan plateau via the upper reaches of the YellowRiver to quench the deserts of the North-west. While the Eastern and Central section of the

project are well under way, the western section isstill at the planning stage, but it is where South Asiacomes into the picture.

Most of Asia's waters flow from the Tibetanplateau, the principal watershed in Asia. Tibet'swaters flow down to eleven countries and are saidto bring fresh water to over 85% of Asia'spopulation, approximately 50% of the world'spopulation.

Four of the world's ten major rivers, theBrahmaputra (or Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet), theYangtze, the Mekong and the Huang Ho (or YellowRiver) have their headwaters on the Tibetan Plateau.The other major rivers which originate in Tibet arethe Salween, the Irrawaddi, the Arun, the Karnali,

the Sutlej and the Indus. For us in South Asia, the main concern is the

Brahmaputra, the Indus and the Sutlej whose watersgive life to more than one billion people livingdownstream. The perennial run of the riversoriginating from these glaciers results in a stableflow of water to regions which are dominated bymonsoon rainfall. However the construction of the mega-structures

has consequences. If on one hand, China hasbecome an expert in dam building, with the Chinesehydropower industry constructing hundreds ofdams throughout Africa, Southeast Asia, CentralAsia, South America and the Himalayas (Chinesecompanies have built or are building at least 13 damprojects in Nepal and 9 in Pakistan), on the otherhand the double-digit development growth hasserious negative effects on China's natural resources(for example 70% of China's freshwater is polluted).

An indirectconsequence: the May2008 Sichuan earthquakewhich measured 7.9 onthe Richter scale andcaused the death of atleast 70,000 people andleft more than 5 millionpeople homeless.In August 2010, some

1200 dead bodies havebeen found in Drugchucounty of Amdoprovince in Tibet,(Zhuoqu County ofGansu province for theChinese).

One Tibetan website Phayul.com explains: "Pastnews reports and statistics of Drugchu countyreveal heavy damming of the valley, mining anddeforestation." Tibetan blogger and poetess Woeserquotes several government reports: "There are 47hydroelectric power plant construction projects inthe region and so far 15 hydroelectric power plantshave been constructed, 14 more are underconstruction," adding that local Tibetans believe theextensive construction projects have upset thefragile ecosystem of the region."

One can imagine what will happen if Chinadecides to build the 38,000 megawatt dam (twicethe Three Gorges Dams) on the YarlungTsangpo/Brahmaputra. Not only will large chunksof waters feeding Assam and Bangladesh bediverted to China, but the construction of and laterthe reservoir itself will create havoc in these eco-sensitive areas, north of the Indian border. It isfrightening just to think about it.

There are 47 hydro-electric power plant

construction projects in the region. So

far 15 hydro-electric power plants have

been constructed and 14 more are under

construction. Local Tibetans

believe the extensive construction

projects have upset the fragile eco-

system of the region.