CONFINDUSTRIA CONFERENCE

BUCHAREST, OCTOBER 23, 2014

“MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCES VS. MICROECONOMIC

UNDERPERFORMANCES”

Inflation rate (HICP) 1.3(percent, annual average) (September 2014)

Long-term interest rates 4.9(percent per annum) (September 2014)

Exchange rate (vs. euro)**(percentage change)

General government deficit***(percent of GDP)

Government debt***(percent of GDP)

Source: Eurostat, National Institute of Statistics, National Bank of Romania, European Commission

**) Maximum percentage deviations of the bilateral exchange rate against the euro from its September 2012 average level in October 2012 to September 2014 based on daily data at business frequency. An upward/downward deviation implies that the currency was stronger/weaker than the average exchange rate in September 2012.

***) 2013; ESA95 methodology.

below 60 percent 38.4 Yes

*) reference level, September 2014 (Portugal, Slovakia, Spain).

±15 percent +4.5 / -1.8 Yes

below 3 percent 2.3 Yes

<1.5 pp above 0.0%* (average of the three best performing Member States) Yes

<2 pp above 3.4%* (average of the three best performing Member States

in terms of price stability) Yes

Maastricht Criteria(Nominal Convergence Indicators)

Nominal Convergence Indicators Maastricht Criteria RomaniaFulfilment

of the criteria

% of GDP3 year

average% of GDP 3 years

% change5 years

% change3 years

% change1 year

% change% of GDP

% of GDP

% of GDP

3 yearaverage

1 year % change

-4%/+6%of GDP

-35%of GDP

±5% (EA)±11% (non-EA) -6%

+9% (EA)+12% (non-EA) +6%

133%of GDP

+14%of GDP

60%of GDP 10% 16.5%

2012 -0.7 -78.2 -4.0 4.7 12.7 -6.9 130.9 2.5 18.4 11.3 10.1

2013 0.4 -76.2 -1.0 5.7 12.7 -0.3 … … 18.9 12.2 …

2012 -0.5 -89.9 -8.3 -24.9 -1.6 -2.2 131.1 -2.1 56.2 14.1 0.7

2013 0.1 -88.7 -4.0 -27.3 0.9 -18.1 … … 67.4 15.8 …

2012 -2.6 -48.8 0.3 -3.4 3.4 -4.0 72.4 0.6 46.2 7.0 5.4

2013 -1.8 -45.6 -3.2 -7.4 3.7 -1.3 … … 46.0 6.9 …

2012 0.5 -103.2 -1.1 -17.9 4.2 -9.2 131.4 -6.0 79.8 11.0 -8.2

2013 1.4 -92.6 -4.0 -19.0 9.0 -4.1 120.9 -3.9 79.3 10.7 3.5

2012 -4.6 -66.5 1.2 1.1 4.2 -5.9 74.6 3.4 55.6 9.8 9.6

2013 -3.4 -69.3 -4.4 -0.4 … -4.2 … … 57.0 10.0 …

2012 -4.4 -68.0 -2.0 5.7 -5.2 -10.0 73.0 0.9 38.0 7.0 5.3

2013 -3.3 -61.3 0.3 10.5 -0.5 -4.5 … … 38.4 7.0 …

*) last update: 17 October 2014… not available

Source: Eurostat, NIS, NBR

Croatia

Nominal unit labour cost

index

House price index

Private debt

Current account balance

Net international investment

position

Real effective exchange

rate (based on HICP)

Share of world

exports of goods and

services

Poland

Romania

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Scoreboard*Financial

sector liabilities

(non-consolidated)

Bulgaria

CzechRepublic

Hungary

Unemploy-ment rate

Private credit flow

Public sector debt

-3.1

9.310.3

2.7

-5.5

5.5

7.5

2.4

7.9 7.6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Jan.-Aug.

Source: National Institute of Statistics

Industrial Output

annual percentage change, gross data

August 2014/August 2013: 0.0%; August 2014/July 2014: -2.7% (sa)

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

200,000,000,000

400,000,000,000

600,000,000,000

800,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1,200,000,000,000

1,400,000,000,000

1,600,000,000,000

Debt Provisions Deferred income Own funds Total Balance sheet (rhs)

percent lei bln.

Graph: Structure and evolution of total liabilities, the Romanian economy (2013=100)

Source: MPF, NBR, own calculations Authors: F.Neagu, F.Dragu, A.Costeiu – “After 20 years: a microeconomic perspective of structural changes in Romania’s economy during the 1994-2013 period”

Source: BACH, MPF, NBR, own calculationsAuthors: F.Neagu, F.Dragu, A.Costeiu – “After 20 years: a microeconomic perspective of structural changes in Romania’s economy during the 1994-2013 period”

Graph: Structure of total liabilities (international comparisons)

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

2010

2011

2012

AT BE CZ DE ES FR IT PL PT RO

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Debt Own funds

percent

Source: MPF, NBR, own calculationsAuthors: F.Neagu, F.Dragu, A.Costeiu – “After 20 years: a microeconomic perspective of structural changes in Romania’s economy during the 1994-2013 period”

1994

2013

1994

2013

1994

2013

1994

2013

1994

2013

Large corporates SMEs Microenterprises Small-sized com-panies

Medium-sized firms

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Debt Provisions Deferred income Own funds

percent

Graph: Structure of total liabilities, by firm size