8/18/2019 Graph Assignment 2

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Jack Walsh

Professor Barry Eidlin

March 2, 2015

Graph Interpretation Assignment #2

The line graph presented in Figure 3.8 describes a very important aspect of the labor

market - job tenure. We know from the title of the graph that the sample of data is limited to

workers ages thirty-five to sixty-four, a sector of the job market which should find themselves

within a quality long-term career. The title also makes mention to “tenure of ten to twenty

years.” Tenure is defined as the holding or possessing of anything, in this scenario, the holding of

a job for between ten and twenty years. The y-axis is labeled “Tenure of Ten to Twenty Years”

and scaled from .25 to .55 with .05 intervals. The x-axis titled “Year” scales from 1970 to 2005

and contains data labels every five years. The key in the bottom right informs the reader that the

data is parsed among genders. So, for each line on the graph, the data point represents the

 proportion of either male or female workers who have been at their current job for between ten

and twenty years. In other words, the data is a strong representation of job security. A higher

 proportion signifies a greater number of workers in a long-term career held for a period of time.

Closer analysis of the graph shows an interesting trend among the male population ages

thirty-five to sixty-four. The first data point in 1970 shows the proportion of workers with tenure

to be about .5, or 50 percent. Ignoring minor fluctuations, the data remains relatively steady until

around 1983 - about 50 percent of workers with tenure. However, a major decline in workers

with tenure occurs over the next five years. In about 1988 the percentage of workers with tenure

drops to about 46 percent. The percentage of workers continues to decline to about 42 percent in

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1997, and furthermore to 38 percent in 2006. And so, the overall trend of the data of this line

graph shows a decline of workers positioned in the same job over the years of 1970 to 2006. A

lessening proportion of workers in long-term jobs as well as decreased job security is an

undesirable outcome for the labor market. Especially within the specified age bracket. This

 population of workers should find themselves in a secure yet quality career for the long run.

This finding could be the outcome of many economical and labor related trends. One

 particular market trend that to me stands out in this situation, is called the “Double Movement”

 portrayed by Karl Polanyi, on page 24 - 25 of “Good Jobs, Bad Jobs”, by Arne L. Kalleberg.

The “Double Movement” describes a transition or shift from the postwar “age of security”, to the

“age of flexibility.” This shift mimics the motion of a swinging pendulum. In the period of 1800

through 1930, the labor market is in times of flexibility, where market mechanisms are

unregulated and job security is uncertain. During this time, there are few if any social contracts

 between an employer and his or her employees. For this reason, workers have no certainty in the

 job market as employers can hire and fire with minimal repercussions. Then, in the period 1930

through 1975, the pendulum swings to security. This is a time where social contracts between

employers and employees are not only common, but in many cases expected. The increase and

 power of social contracts gives workers a feeling of relative certainty in the job market.

Employers, committed to a contract, are unable to hire and fire at will, which leads to greater job

security and long-term quality careers for more workers. In my opinion, the trend presented in

Figure 3.8 fits the swing of the pendulum perfectly. Polanyi’s model begins to shift back to a

market of flexibility from 1975 to the present. Back to free market mechanisms, and back to job

uncertainty, and thus a decrease in job security.