Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24, 2011, Georgia Tech University...
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Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24, 2011, Georgia Tech University Forecast and Hindcast Modeling in the Grand Bay Mercury Intensive
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Forecast and Hindcast Modeling in the
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive Mark Cohen, Fantine Ngan, Roland
Draxler, Winston Luke, Paul Kelley, and Richard Artz NOAA Air
Resources Lab, Silver Spring, Maryland _____________________ Grand
Bay Mercury Intensive Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24, 2011
Georgia Tech University Atlanta, GA 1
Slide 2
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Outline emissions of Hg(0), Hg(II),
Hg(p) Hg from other sources: local, regional & more distant wet
and dry deposition to the water surface Enhanced oxidation of Hg(0)
to RGM? Enhanced deposition? Reactive halogens in marine boundary
layer Measurement of wet deposition Measurement of ambient air
concentrations wet and dry deposition to the watershed 1.
Forecasting for mission planning 2. High-resolution hindcast
meteorological modeling (Fantine Ngan) 3. Atmospheric Mercury and
Other Hindcast Modeling 2
Slide 3
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Forecasting for Mission Planning
During the Summer 2010 Intensive Based on the NOAA NCEP NAM 12km
weather forecast model product This forecast starts at UTC 00 for
the given date, which is 7 PM the night before in Grand Bay time
(GBT). The hours displayed in the product 9 AM to 8 PM GBT thus
represented hours 14-25 in the 48 hr t00z forecast. The file became
available to NOAA ARL at ~2:00 AM GBT, and the processing of the
data to make this product was generally done by 5:00 6 00 GBT. Goal
was to have product ready each day by 7:00 GBT 3
Slide 4
HYSPLIT-based forecast product for the Grand Bay Intensive
Trajectories (pages 2-13) One page for each local hour from 9 AM to
8 PM Image in upper left corner is mixing height (m) The other five
images are back-trajectory maps, each map representing a starting
point at a different elevation (meters) above mean-sea-level (250,
500, 1000, 2000, and 3000) There are nine trajectories shown on
each map: one starting at the Grand Bay NERR and on a +/- 1 deg
lat/long grid around the NERR The trajectories each go back 96
hours; but the trajectories may not stay on the map for all 96
hours. On each trajectory there is a little dot showing the
location at six-hour intervals; and a larger symbol at 00 UTC each
day. In the panel below the trajectories, the height above the
surface is shown for each trajectory as it goes back in time Note
that elevations in trajectory maps are shown as being above ground
level, and the starting heights labels in the panels below each
trajectory are shown for the first trajectory run. This happened to
started over land where the elevation was ~80m, so, the labels
happen to refer to that trajectory, so the labels say ~170, 420,
920, 1920, and 2920. Wind Direction at Different Elevations (pages
14-25) One page for each local hour from 9 AM to 8 PM Each image
shows a map of wind direction, at each grid point in the NAMSF
12-km forecast at a particular vertical level in the met data set
There are 6 maps, corresponding approximately to the elevations 10,
250, 500, 1000, 2000, 3000. The met data is on terrain following
sigma levels; so, the heights above the ground at any given
location are influenced by the terrain height. Meteorological Data
Contours (pages 26-37) One page for each local hour from 9 AM to 8
PM Image in upper left corner and upper middle are the mixing
height (same map as shown on Trajectory pages). The two maps are
slightly different due do differing interpolation procedures The
map in the upper right corner is forecast precipitation, shown as a
3- hr accumulation, ending at that hour; that is the amounts shown
are the total forecast precipitation over the previous 3 hrs. Other
maps shown are for the following three surface parameters:
pressure, downward shortwave radiation flux, and friction velocity
Meteorological Data for Grand Bay NERR (pages 38-50) Page 38 is
description of data that are shown Then, one page for each local
hour from 9 AM to 8 PM Each page shows the meteorological data at
the surface and at each level of the gridded, forecast
meteorological data set. Note that on these pages and throughout,
times are expressed in UTC (Universal Time Coordinate). These are
currently 5 hrs ahead of Grand Bay, e.g., 9 AM Grand Bay is 2 PM
UTC (or UTC 14) RGM Plumes from Large Regional Sources (pages
51-63) Page 51 shows a map of some of the large sources in the
region; as stated on map, some of the sources are no longer
emitting. These sources were not included in these simulations. One
page for each local hour from 9 AM to 8 PM; each page shows
model-estimated RGM concentrations for six different vertical
layers n the atmosphere. These maps do not represent the total RGM
in the atmosphere, but only the fraction contributed by large
regional sources. The maps show average concentrations for the hour
leading up to the stated hour, e.g., the map for UTC 14 represents
average concentrations between UTC 13 and 14 (8 9 AM Grand Bay)
Based on the t00z NAM-12km forecast generated by the National
Weather Service This forecast starts at UTC 00 for the given date,
which is 7 PM the night before in Grand Bay time (GBT). The hours
displayed in this product 9 AM to 8 PM GBT thus represent hours
14-25 in the 48 hr t00z forecast. The file becomes available to
NOAA ARL at ~2:00 AM GBT, and the processing of the data to make
this product is generally done by 5:00 6 00 GBT. 4
Slide 5
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University The first set of pages were hourly
maps of mixing heights and back trajectories 5
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Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University The second set of pages were hourly
maps of wind vectors at different heights 9
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Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University The third set of pages were hourly
maps of mixing height, PBL-height, 3-hr precipitation, surface
pressure, downward shortwave radiation flux and friction velocity
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Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University The fourth set of pages were hourly
tables of surface variables and meteorological parameters in a
vertical column above the site 26
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Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University The fifth set of pages were hourly
maps of modeled RGM concentrations in the region, arising from
anthropogenic sources in the region 31
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Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Forecasting for next intensive? What
format would be most helpful? Maybe just have one page per hour,
and then one could look at one part of the page as one scrolled
through This would mean far less information, though, as we are
limited to about six images per page If we did it this way, what
would the six images be? Or maybe this is too limited? Another
issue was bandwidth for downloading I had to degrade the quality of
the images significantly in order to keep file size as small as it
was (~12 MB), and even this was perhaps too large 44
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45
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Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University 2. High Resolution Hindcast
Meteorological Modeling A 4-km meteorological data modeling
analysis (with data assimilation) has been produced by Dr. Fantine
Ngan, a post-doc at NOAA ARL, for the Summer 2010 Intensive
Unfortunately, Fantine couldnt be at this meeting as she is at the
AMS meeting in Seattle this week, but she prepared the slides in
this section for presentation here 10 m wind fields 18 UTC August
06 46
Slide 47
South-west corner (km) Number of cellsResolution (km) Starting
point relative to mother domain
X-originY-originEastingNorthingX-direction Y-direction
D01-2808-2268157127361 1 D02180-15481932231284 21
D03708-1260163151445 25 Projection center: 40N, 100W Standard
latitude: 30N, 60N Layers: 43, with model top at 50 mb (1 st layer
thickness is 33 m and 15 layers are below 850 mb) Domain
configuration D01 D02 D03 Grand Bay 30.4123, -88.4037, 5 m 47
Slide 48
Simulation period: 210/07/31 00 UTC 08/13 12 UTC IC/BC for D01
is from GFS data + objectively analysis (OBS2GRID) Others are
nestdown from coarse domain. 3D grid nudging, SFC nudging and OBS
nudging are on for all domains The model was run in 5.5 day
segments and re-initialized every 5 days. There were 12 hours
overlapping between each run segment. The soil moisture and
temperature in the input files were replaced with the WRF output in
the previous run segment run segmentperiod p17/30 00 UTC 8/4 12 UTC
p28/4 00 UTC 8/9 12 UTC p38/9 00 UTC 8/13 12 UTC Physical options
microphysics: WSM 3-class scheme radiation scheme: RRTM scheme for
longwave radiation Dudhia scheme for shortwave radiation land
surface model: PX LSM PBL scheme: ACM2 scheme cumulus scheme:
Grell-Devenyi Ensemble scheme Model Setup 48
Slide 49
Temperature time series at Grand Bay Black *: observation, Red
line: WRF model Relative humidity time series at Grand Bay
Measurements are provided by Winston Luke 49
Slide 50
Wind speed time series at Grand Bay Black *: observation, Red
line: WRF model Wind direction time series at Grand Bay 50
Slide 51
Soundings at Grand Bay at 2010/08/06 16 UTC Wind speed
Potential temperature Measurements are provided by Winston Luke
51
Slide 52
2 m temperature 09 UTC August 062 m temperature 19 UTC August
06 PBL height 09 UTC August 06 PBL height 19 UTC August 06 Shaded
background: model Color circles: MADIS OBS 52
Slide 53
10 m wind fields 12 UTC August 0610 m wind fields 15 UTC August
06 10 m wind fields 18 UTC August 06 10 m wind fields 21 UTC August
06 Shaded : model wind speed Vector: model wind vectors Color
circles: MADIS OBS 53
Slide 54
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Questions for the group We are going
to be using this dataset for modeling, but would this met data set
be useful for anybodys elses data analysis? Fantine (and/or Mark)
might be able to help extract needed data for any particular use
54
Slide 55
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University 3. Atmospheric Mercury and Other
Hindcast Modeling A. Back-trajectory modeling using HYSPLIT B.
Comprehensive Fate and Transport Modeling using HYSPLIT-Hg Note
both kinds of modeling will utilize high-resolution met data
developed by Fantine to the greatest extent possible 55
Slide 56
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University 3. Atmospheric Mercury and Other
Hindcast Modeling A. Back-Trajectory Modeling Using HYSPLIT Can
model back-trajectories arriving at the Grand Bay site and try to
correlate with observations at the site Can model back-trajectories
associated with any given air-craft measurement and try to
correlate with these measurements The idea is that maybe having
information regarding where air masses were coming from will help
with data interpretation 56
Slide 57
Time series of Reactive Gaseous Mercury (RGM), Fine Particulate
Mercury (FPM) and Gaseous Elemental Mercury (GEM) from two
co-located instruments (D1 and D2) (top graph) and of SO2, O3, NO,
NOy, and CO (bottom graph) measured at the Grand Bay NERR from May
3-8, 2008 57
Slide 58
Time series of Reactive Gaseous Mercury (RGM), Fine Particulate
Mercury (FPM) and Gaseous Elemental Mercury (GEM) from two
co-located instruments (D1 and D2) at the Grand Bay NERR from May
3-8, 2008 58
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Date and Time (UTC) 59
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Date and Time (UTC) 60
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Date and Time (UTC) 61
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Date and Time (UTC) 62
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Date and Time (UTC) 63
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Date and Time (UTC) 64
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Date and Time (UTC) 65
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Date and Time (UTC) 66
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Date and Time (UTC) 67
Slide 68
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University 3. Atmospheric Mercury and Other
Hindcast Modeling B. Comprehensive Fate and Transport Modeling
Using HYSPLIT-Hg Model mercury from regional and global sources for
the time period of the Intensive Compare model predictions against
surface measurements at the Grand Bay NERR site as well as
measurements aloft during flights One goal is help with data
interpretation, i.e., help explain why we saw what we saw Another
goal of this analysis will be model sensitivity and model
evaluation, i.e., Can model reproduce measurements? If not, why?
Sensitivity to key uncertainties? 68
Slide 69
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Emissions from sources during
intensive, especially local/regional sources that particularly
impacted our observations? Some issues with mercury fate/transport
modeling 69
Slide 70
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Emissions data: a critical model
input In model evaluation, want to diagnose weaknesses in model
without large influence of emissions errors Need accurate,
speciated emissions estimates for all sources impacting the site
for the time period of the episode Pascagoula MSW Incinerator shut
down in Jan 2001, but still in 2002 NEI CRIST: New scrubber
installed Dec 2009 will dramatically reduce RGM emissions Lowman
reported dramatic drop in mercury emissions in 2008 TRI Brewton
paper mill : Hg emissions in 2002 NEI, but do not appear in 2000-
2008 TRI IPSCO Steel: significant Hg emissions in 2002 NEI, but
negligible emissions in 2008 TRI Large mercury emissions point
sources from USEPA 2002 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) Grand
Bay NERR site 70
Slide 71
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Emissions from sources during
intensive, especially local/regional sources that particularly
impacted our observations? Some issues with mercury fate/transport
modeling How to incorporate bromine and other chemical measurements
into the modeling? What kind of collaboration makes sense? Model
configuration for prediction and subsequent comparison at a fixed
site e.g., the Grand Bay NERR site -- is routine, but prediction
& comparison for a moving platform will be a little more
challenging 71
Slide 72
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Summary of modeling questions for the
group discussed in this presentation FORECASTING: What kind of
forecast product would be most useful for the next intensive?
HIGH-RES MET DATA: Does anybody need/want extracts from the high-
resolution met data set, or can think of any other way that this
data set might be useful for their analysis? BACK-TRAJECTORY
MODELING: We will most likely carry out some kind of
back-trajectory analysis, using the high-resolution met data, but
does anybody have any particular requests? The goal is to help with
data interpretation. FATE/TRANSPORT MODELING: We will definitely
carry out this kind of modeling and would like to collaborate in
any way that makes sense For both the BACK-TRAJECTORY and
FATE/TRANSPORT modeling, do we have the complete set of flight
locations (lat/long/elevation) and times associated with each
measurement? 72
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Extra Slides 73
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Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University color of symbol denotes type of
mercury source coal-fired power plants other fuel combustion waste
incineration metallurgical manufacturing & other size/shape of
symbol denotes amount of RGM) emitted during 2002 (kg/yr) 10 - 50
50 - 100 100 300 5 - 10 urban areas Grand Bay NERR monitoring site
Watson Daniel Barry Lowman Crist Mobile Pensacola Mississippi
Alabama Florida Louisiana Pascagoula MSW incinerator ** Brewton
paper mill* * Hg emissions included in 2002 NEI, but do not appear
to be in 2000-2008 TRI ** Hg emissions included in 2002 NEI but
incineration ceased in January 2001 *** Significant Hg emissions in
2002 NEI, but negligible emissions reported in 2008 TRI Eaton
Gaylord Container Bogalusa IPSCO Steel *** Biloxi- Gulfport New
Orleans Hattiesburg Slidell Pascagoula Location of the Grand Bay
NERR sampling site, along with large point sources of RGM in the
region, based on the EPAs 2002 National Emissions Inventory 74
Slide 75
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Mercury Air Emissions from Charles R.
Lowman Power Plant as reported to the Toxic Release Inventory For
some sources, there have been big changes since 2002, the date of
the last comprehensive mercury inventory 75
Slide 76
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Current Atmospheric Measurements of
Ambient Air Concentrations and Meteorological Data Elemental
mercury (two instruments) Fine particulate mercury (two
instruments) Reactive gaseous mercury (two instruments) Sulfur
dioxide Ozone Carbon Monoxide Nitrogen Oxides (NO, NOy) Aerosol
Black Carbon Wind speed, Wind Direction Temperature, Relative
Humidity Precipitation Amount Speciated Atmospheric Mercury
Concentrations Trace gases and other measurements to help
understand and interpret mercury data Meteorological Data 76
Slide 77
Grand Bay Mercury Intensive, Data and Planning Meeting, Jan 24,
2011, Georgia Tech University Wet Deposition Measurements added in
2010 by the Mississippi Department of Environmental Protection
(Henry Folmar, Becky Comyns, others), with funding from the USEPA
Precipitation Continuous digital measurement of precipitation
amount Major Ions pH, SO 4 -2, NO 3 -, PO 4 -3, Cl -, NH 4 +, Ca
+2, Mg +2, K +, Na + Weekly measurements of concentrations in
precipitation (NADP-NTN) Total Mercury Weekly measurements of
concentration in precipitation (NADP-MDN) Methyl Mercury Monthly
measurements of concentration in precipitation (composite) Selected
Trace Metals As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Se, Zn Weekly measurements of
concentrations in precipitation (MDN Heavy Metal Protocol) 77