Grain Market 2011

8/4/2019 Grain Market 2011

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WORLD ESTIMATESmillion tons

07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11est

11/12forecast

28.07 25.08

WHEATProduction 607 685 679 651 674 677

Trade 110 137 128 126 127 128

Consumption 602 646 652 657 676 678

Carryover stocks 132 171 197 192 190 191

year/year change +5 +39 +26 -5 -1

Major exporters a) 47 68 76 69 63 65

MAIZE (CORN)Production 797 800 820 824 859 849

Trade 101 84 86 93 94 93

Consumption 779 784 821 846 863 858


year/year change +19 +15 -1 -22 -8

TOTAL GRAINS*Production 1698 1802 1799 1748 1817 1808

Trade 240 250 240 243 244 244

Consumption 1676 1735 1770 1791 1829 1824


year/year change +22 +67 +29 -42 -16Major exporters a) 123 159 170 128 115 112

a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine,United States * Wheat and coarse grains

million tons (milled basis)

07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11est

11/12forecast

28.07 25.08

RICEProduction 432 447 440 451 457 457

Trade 29 29 31 32 32 32

Consumption 429 436 437 447 456 457


year/year change +3 +12 +2 +4 - +1Major exporters b) 18 27 28 29 31 31

b) India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, United States

MARKET COMMENTARY

After a turbulent July, export prices of grains and oilseedsmostly strengthened in the past month as bullishnesslinked to crop uncertainties, especially in the US, mostlyovercame the generally negative global financial sentimentand steep declines in equities. The dominant concernswere about the tightening outlook for maize and higherquality wheat, as well as the impact of national policymeasures on Asian rice export prices. Heavy buying ofBlack Sea region grain narrowed the price gap with otherorigins. Wheat export prices mostly advanced over theperiod, with higher milling grades registering the biggestgains because of North American spring crop worries andrain damage in parts of Europe. Some CME maize futuresset new contract highs, triggered by further reductions inUS yield forecasts and their implications for 2011/12closing stocks. Nearby CME soyabean futures, afterdipping to five-month lows because of improved US cropconditions and falling energy markets, more than made uplost ground as Midwest yield prospects worsened,although slower than anticipated growth in Chinas importswas a restraining factor. Rice export values in Asiareceived a further boost from price support measures inThailand, remaining uncertainties about the resumption of

private sector non-basmati exports by India and strongbuying, especially by Indonesia. Recent pricedevelopments are reflected in IGCs Grains and OilseedsIndex (GOI) which is now calculated and published dailyon the Councils website. Overall, the index moved up by1.4% over the past month, to 292, the increase mainlyresulting from advances in its maize and rice components(trade-weighted, as at 24 August).For main market events since 28 July see:www.igc.int/gmr/414/marketevents.pdf

IGC DAILY INDEX (GOI)24.08 Change from 28.07 Year ago ChangeGrains &

Oilseeds Index

(GOI) 292 4 224 68

For further details go to: http://www.igc.int/grainsupdate/igc_goi.xls

EXPORT PRICES

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

28-Apr

18-May

07-Jun

27-Jun

15-Jul

04-Aug

24-Aug

US$ / ton, fob

US SRW

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

28-Apr

18-May

07-Jun

27-Jun

15-Jul

04-Aug

24-Aug

US HRW

WHEAT MAIZE

US CornEU (France)

480

500

520

540

560

580

600

620

28-Apr

18-May

07-Jun

27-Jun

15-Jul

04-Aug

24-Aug

Thai 100%

480

500

520

540

560

580

600

620

28-Apr

18-May

07-Jun

27-Jun

15-Jul

04-Aug

24-Aug

RICE SOYABEANS

US Soyabeans

INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL

GMR No. 414 25 August 2011


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OUTLOOK FOR 2011/12

G R A I N S *

World grains production is expected to risesignificantly from last years reduced outturn, but theforecast is lowered from July due to a sharp cut in theUS maize crop estimate. While a downwardadjustment is also made to the 2011/12 consumptionforecast, global end-of-season grain stocks arenevertheless placed lower than before, projected todecline by 4% from their estimated level at the start ofthe season. Total production is now forecast at1,808m. tons, down by 9m. from the previous monthbut still significantly higher than in 2010/11 (1,748m.).While the wheat crop figure is raised by 3m. tons, to677m. (651m.), the world maize production forecast isreduced by 10m. tons, to 849m. (824m.) because ofthe further decline in US yield prospects. In view ofthe tightness in the US maize market, with priceslikely to stay firm, also in relation to wheat, feed use

of grain is placed 3m. tons lower than before, at766m., but still up from the past years 749m. Globalfeed use of maize is trimmed by 4m. tons, but that ofwheat is placed slightly higher than before, at atwenty-year peak of 125m. tons, reflecting ampleavailabilities of lower quality grades. With thereduction in the global production total only partlyabsorbed by a cut in the consumption forecast, theprojection of world carryover stocks in 2011/12 isreduced by 5m. tons, to 342m. This would representa drop of 16m. tons from the estimated carry-in level,mainly due to the expected decline in maizeinventories. In particular, end-season stocks in theeight major exporters are projected to fall to 112m.

tons, down from 128m. at the start of 2011/12 andfrom 170m. the year before. These would be thesmallest since 2003/04. The global trade forecast forgrains in 2011/12 is almost unchanged at 244m. tons,up 1m. from the year ended this June. Bigger thanpreviously projected imports lift the wheat figure by1.5m. tons, to 128.2m., but this is balanced by areduction for maize trade, now placed at 92.7m. tons.The substantial recovery in Black Sea region supplieswill result in a major shift back to this origin,especially for wheat, with the downturn in US maizeexports also partly offset by expected record Ukraineshipments of this grain.

WHEAT: World wheat supply and demand areforecast to be broadly balanced in 2011/12, with arise in production matched by higher use. With winterwheat harvests nearing completion in the northernhemisphere, better than expected results in the EU,CIS and China outweigh the somewhat reducedprospects in the US and Australia, and the forecast ofworld production is raised by 3m. tons, to 677m.(651m.). Much of the rise in supply compared withlast month is absorbed by a further increase inprojected feed wheat demand, contributing to a largerthan normal year-on-year upturn in total world wheatconsumption, to 678m. tons (657m.). The global

carryover is expected to be broadly unchanged,placed 1m. tons higher than in the last Market Report,at 191m. However, stocks of the highest-protein

milling wheats are expected to tighten, especially inthe US and Canada, contributing to a 3.9m. ton fall inthe combined carryover in the eight major exporters,to 64.6m. This is up by 2.0m. tons from last monthsfigure, including larger projections for the EU,Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

MAIZE (CORN): The US crop forecast is cut sharplyfrom last month, but production prospects in thesouthern hemisphere have improved and the 2011/12maize crop is still projected to be the largest onrecord at 849m. tons (824m.). Demand is expectedto increase, but at a slower pace. Growth in feed usewill be limited mainly to developing countries, withmeat output in most industrialised nations likely toincrease relatively slowly due to high feed prices andflat demand. Growing supplies of competitively-priced lower grade wheat will limit demand for maize,while use of distillers dried grains (DDG) will alsoremain high. After rising sharply in recent years,maize used for the manufacture of fuel ethanol is

forecast to show very little growth, with the figure forthe US projected to be unchanged from 2010/11. EUimport needs are seen lower than before and, withsome buyers in Asia likely to further boost feed wheatpurchases, the 2011/12 world trade forecast istrimmed by 1.4m. tons, to 92.7m., almost unchangedfrom last year.

R I C E

World rice production (milled basis) in 2011/12 isprojected to increase by 2%, to a record 457m. tons.This assumes larger outturns in Far East Asia,

including in India, where prospects for this yearskharif crop are generally favourable. Increasedsupplies should also enable a further rise in thatcountrys consumption, with world use forecast toexpand to an all-time peak of 457m. tons. With globalproduction and consumption expected to be broadlyin balance, the 2011/12 carryoveris set to show littleoverall change, at a nine-year high of 99m. tons.Within the total, inventories in the five major exportersare expected to climb to 30.9m. tons (29.2m.). Worldtrade in calendar 2012 is projected to expand by 1%,to a record 32.2m. tons, with larger shipments toseveral countries in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

O I L S E E D S

SOYABEANS: World soyabean production in2011/12 is projected at 258.1m. tons, a decline of 3%from last year, mostly reflecting prospects for asmaller US outturn. Solid demand from Asia (China)will spur further growth in world trade in 2011/12,forecast to rise to a record 96.4m. tons (92.5m.).Global soyameal trade is placed at 60.3m. tons(58.3m.), the year-on-year expansion resulting frombigger purchases by the EU and Far East Asia.

* Excluding rice

2011


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GMR 41425 August 2011

GMR CONTENTS(N.B: Text and tables highlighted in blue are available in electronic version only )

COMMENTARY

Page no. Page no.

OUTLOOK FOR SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 2011/12 4 RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 15

General 4 Wheat 15

Wheat 4 Durum 16

Durum 7 Coarse grains 17Coarse grains 7 Maize (corn) 17

Maize (corn) 7 Barley 17Barley 9 Other coarse grains (sorghum, oats, rye) 18Sorghum 11 Oilseeds 18Oats 11 Rice 19

Rye 12 Ocean freight rates 19

RICE: SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 2011/12 12 NATIONAL POLICY AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS 202010/11 update 12 Latest national trade-related measures 20

Outlook for 2011/12 12 Other national policy developments 20Other developments 21

OILSEEDS 142010/11 update 14 MARKET FOCUS 21

Soyabeans 14 New daily grains and oilseeds index (GOI) 21

Soyameal 15 Volatility in futures markets - update 22

Rapeseed/canola 15 World trade in wheat flour

TABLES

Table no. Table no.

GRAINS

PRODUCTION SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Total grains (wheat and coarse grains) 1 Total grains 18A

All wheat 2 All wheat 18BMaize (corn) 3 Maize (corn) 18C

Barley 4 Barley & sorghum 18DSorghum 5 Oats & rye 18EOats 6

Rye 7 Durum wheat: Supply and demand/production/trade 19

Totals by grain 8

TRADE RICE

Total grains (wheat and coarse grains) 9 Production 20

All wheat 10 Trade 21Maize (corn) 11 Rice: main exporters' progress reports 21ABarley 12 Supply and demand 22

Sorghum 13 Cumulative shipments by destination - All rice EOats 14Rye 15 OILSEEDS

Shipments and sales Soyabeans: production 23Rapeseed/canola: production 24

Recent reported sales (wheat and coarse grains) 16 Soyabeans: trade 25

Wheat: main exporters' progress reports 17A Soyabeans: main exporters' progress reports 25A

Maize (corn): main exporters' progress reports 17B Soyameal: trade 26Barley: main exporters' progress reports 17C Soyameal: main exporters' progress reports 26A

Rapeseed/canola: trade 27

Monthly and quarterly grain shipments A Rapeseed/canola: main exporters' progress reports 27ACumulative shipments by destination Cumulative shipments by destination

Wheat B1 Soyabeans F1Durum wheat B2 Soyameal F2 Maize (corn) B3 Rapeseed/canola F3 Barley B4 Malt B5 Sorghum B6 PRICESOats B7

Weekly export quotations (and GOI)* 28

EU: licences, import duties and export refunds Futures prices 29Export/import licences C1 Historical volatility 29AImport duties C2 IGC wheat price index G TRQ import licences C3

OCEAN FREIGHT RATESCHINA

Selected grain routes 30

Production D1Trade forecasts D2 * New IGC daily grains and oilseeds index (GOI)Trade progress report D3 Official trade data D4

Documents

Grain Market 2011