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Understanding and Communicating Pressures on Future Food Security through

Development of Quantified Scenarios – West Africa Case Study

Graham Burr CPSI Cohort 2 Dissertation 2103 Update: June 2014

Mopti, Mali, 2007

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The issue

Multiple, competing pressures on food security for the world’s poor…

How to create food security without crashing the environment

Global

resource

shortages

Increased

domestic

calorie

demand

More Land conversion

Intensification (More inputs:

water, fertilizer, Infrastructure,)

Food security

=

increased local

calorie output

Increased

pressure on land

Reduced

eco-system

services

Feedback: Risks of Overgrazing and

land degradation and water shortage “Land Grabs”

(exports/biofuels)

Imports less

affordable

& reliable

Climate Change

(yield impacts)

Population

Growth and

economic

development

Environmental

degradation

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Case Study approach

Why West Africa….Big, poor, growing, with huge food security challenge

Key Facts

300 million people ( 60% EU27)

605 million hectares (140% EU27)

Major rivers: Niger, Volga, Senegal

Three reasons to choose West Africa:

1. One of the poorest regions, with big food

security issues

2. International interest: Role in key export

commodities, de-forestation and land grabs

3. Region is largely self-contained

geographically and economically – and big!

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West Africa

Young Region with some of the world’s highest population growth forecast

Today’s Population

2010

300304

2030

543

496

2050

841

743

population

total calories

Sierra Leone: 2011

Will More than Double by 2050

2050

Index on 2010

Population: 2.4

Calories: 2.8

Calories/

head/day: 1.1

Sources: FAO databases Threefold increase in calorie consumption

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West Africa

Has the Full Range of Land Types – and lots of it still in its “natural state”

Examples of different land types:

Grassland and woodland)

Sparsely vegetated and barren

Tropical Forests

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West Africa

Has the Full Range of Land Types – and lots of it still in its “natural state”

Examples of different land types:

Grassland and woodland)

Sparsely vegetated and barren

Tropical Forests

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West Africa

Has the Full Range of Land Types – and lots of it still in its “natural state”

Examples of different land types:

Grassland and woodland)

Sparsely vegetated and barren

Tropical Forests

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West Africa

Has the Full Range of Land Types – but only about 15% is high yield land

Tropical Forests Grassland and woodland Sparsely vegetated & barren

% of total 15% 44% 42% = 100%

Of which:

“prime & good“ 25% 25% n.a.

(High Yield)

% of total “prime & good“ 4% - = 15%

Why Important? Huge impact on potential calorie output

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Scenario development

Dramatic differences in 2050 calorie output with different farming regimes

2010 yields2050 trend

yields

2050 Mixed

input yields

3.9 4.9 12.4

1.9 2.4 1.9

3.9 4.9 12.4

1.9 2.4 1.9

3.4 4.2 6.3130 162 16286 108

346382

477

477255

318

1018

852 Bn Cal. p.a. 1066 Bn Cal. p.a. 2090 Bn Cal. p.a.

Forest area M and VM Forest area prime & goodGrass and woodland M and VM Grass and woodland prime & good

Potential Calorie Output 2010 Yields

Potential Calorie Output 2050 Trend

Yields

Potential Calorie Output 2050 Mix Input

Yields

“Prime and

good” land

Approx. Four

times today’s

yield

Intensive farming on “Prime and Good” Land drives

80% of potential increase in calorie output

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West Africa

Two development paths considered to meet 2050 calorie needs

Scenario 1:

Low development

(Business as usual)

Scenario 2

High development

(Major investment in

agriculture)

• Rain fed cultivation,

• Historical rates of yield

improvement continue

• High input farming

(irrigation, increased

fertilisers and crop

selection)

• Factor of 4 Yield

increase on suitable

land

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Scenario development

Land use Evolution from Natural state to today – strong starting point

84% of land still in its “natural” state

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Land use evolution

Scenario 1: Low development – “Business as usual”

Only 23% of potentially cultivatable land remains by 2050

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Land use evolution

Scenario 2: High development – “high investment” scenario

51% of potentially cultivatable land remains by 2050 with significant exports crops

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Scenario comparison

Key Metrics: Land conversion, Food security, Ecosystem services, Water usage

0 20 40 60 80

2050scenario 1

scenario 2

19

43

203048

63

201065

65

Neither scenario is both resilient and feasible

0

10

20

30

40

2010

3 3

2030

6

18

2050

Scen

ario

1

Scen

ario

2

9

35

Withdra

wals

as

a%

ofIR

WS

0

50

100

150

200

0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500

0

72

0

Billion KCal / year

Eco

syste

mS

erv

ice

Va

lue

($B

)

94

122

38

92

180

0 50 100 150 200

Scenario 1 -total

20502030 176

Scenario 2 -total

79

Scenario 1 -Domestic

171

Scenario 2 -Domestic

39

Land conversion vs. today (million Ha)

Land Conversion for Agriculture in 2030 and 2050 Food Security: % of Max. Theoretical Output Left

Indicative Impact on Ecosystem service value Water Impact: Withdrawals as % of “Supply”

Today

2030 2050

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Scenario Implications

Key measures to reduce eco-system services damage and resource depletion

Drive Sustainable Intensification

Build expertise

- Fund agricultural R&D - Develop eco-agricultural

approach - Smallholder education/ training - Knowledge transfer

Yield focus

- optimal crop selection - high yield/resilient seed varieties - fertiliser management - Close yield gaps on cash crops - Renovation of old plantations - Mixed plantations

Integrate water management

- Irrigation infrastructure - improve irrigation efficiency - rain water harvesting

Smallholder support

- Fairtrade/ floor prices - Market access infrastructure

Minimise impact of land conversion

Land use prioritisation

- Natural capital costing by land type - Identify prime and good land - Long and short term plan - Domestic calorie focus

Land use change governance

- optimal crop selection - high yield/resilient seed varieties - fertiliser management - Close yield gaps on cash crops - Renovation of old plantations - Mixed plantations

Total system approach

- reduce post-harvest losses (infrastructure)

- design adequate, varied nutrition - infrastructure (water supply,

transport) - population planning (key lever,

beyond scope of this paper)

Action required now

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The Toolkit

We need tools to understand and communicate trade-offs

1. Natural land state evolution: Plan land use

changes over time

2. Land Conversion pathway: Ecosystem services

vs. Calorie production

3. Water security: Impacts on supply and withdrawal

(to be developed)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 1000 2000

Calories per day

2010 2030 2050

Make the right decisions

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Thank You!

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Thank You!

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Thank You!