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8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
1/53
U.S. Government Finances
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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Page
Summary Table Government Receipts, Outlays, Deficit and Debt 1960 to Present 3
Monthly Chartwork Government Receipts, Outlays, Deficit and Debt 2000 to Present
3 and 12 Month Moving Totals at Annual Rates, NSA
Receipts, Outlays and Deficit 4-5Gross and Public Held Treasury Debt New Issuance v Outstandings 6-8
Coverage Ratios on 12 Month Moving Totals
Receipts to Outlays 9-10
Gross Treasury Debt to Receipts 11-12
Economic Burden Ratios on 12 Month Moving Totals
Outlays to GDP 13-14
Deficit to GDP 15
Gross Treasury Debt to GDP 16-17
Public Held Treasury Debt to Private National Savings 18-21
Long Term Fiscal Year Chartwork 1960 to Present
Government Receipts, Outlays, Deficit and Debt
Receipts, Outlays and Deficit 22-23
Gross, Agency/Trust and Public Held Treasury Debt New Issuance v Outstandings 24-30
Gross Interest Cost
Gross Interest Cost v Gross Debt Outstanding 31-32
Analysis of Determinants of Gross Interest Cost 33-38Coverage Ratios
Receipts to Outlays 39-40
Gross Treasury Debt to Receipts 41-42
Receipts to Gross Interest 43-44
Economic Burden Ratios
Outlays to GDP 45-46
Deficit to GDP 47
Gross Treasury Debt to GDP 48-49Public Held Treasury Debt to Private National Savings 50-53
U.S. Government Finances
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
Table of Contents
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8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-1600000
-1400000
-1200000
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
Deficit$Millions
Receipts/O
utlays$Millions
US Government Receipts Outlays Deficit3 and 12 Month $ Totals
$12mo Deficit $3mo Receipts $3mo Outlays $12mo Receipts $12mo Outlays
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-1600000
-1400000
-1200000
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Deficit$Millions
Receipts/Outlays%YoY
US Government Receipts Outlays Deficit% Change YoY 12 Month $ Totals Receipts Outlays v Deficit
$12mo Deficit %YoY Receipts %YoY Outlays
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
GrossNewIssuance$Millions
GrossD
ebt$Millions
US Government Gross Treasury Debt12 Month $ New Issuance Totals vs Outstandings
$12mo Gross Debt Gross Debt
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
PublicNewIssuance$Millions
PublicHeldDebt$Millions
US Government Public Held Treasury Debt12 Month $ New Issuance Totals vs Outstandings
$12mo Held Public Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GrossandPub
licHeldebt$Millions
GrossandPublicHeldDebt%YoY
US Government Gross and Public Held Treasury Debt% Change YoY Outstandings
Held Public Gross Debt %YoY Gross Debt %YoY Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
RatioRec
eiptstoOutlays
Outlay
s$Millions
US Government Coverage Ratios
12 Month Totals Receipts to Outlays
Receipts to Outlays $12mo Outlays
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
RatioRece
iptstoOutlays
Outlays%YoY
US Government Coverage Ratios12 Month Totals Receipts to Outlays
Receipts to Outlays %YoY Outlays
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
RatioGross
DebttoReceipts
GrossD
ebt$Millions
US Government Coverage Ratios
Gross Treasury Debt to 12 Month Totals Receipts
Gross Debt to Receipts Gross Debt
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
RatioGross
DebttoReceipts
GrossDebt%YoY
US Government Coverage Ratios
Gross Treasury Debt to 12 Month Totals Receipts
Gross Debt to Receipts %YoY Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
%Outla
ystoGDP
Outlays
$Millions
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Size of Government12 Month Totals Outlays to GDP
% Outlays to GDP $12mo Outlays
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
%Outla
ystoGDP
Outlay
s%YoY
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Size of Government12 Month Totals Outlays to GDP
% Outlays to GDP %YoY Outlays
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-1600000
-1100000
-600000
-100000
400000
%DeficittoGDP
Deficit$Millions
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Size of Government12 Month Totals Deficit to GDP
% Deficit to GDP $12mo Deficit
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
GrossDe
bttoGDP%
GrossDe
bt$Millions
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Income12 Month Totals Gross Debt to GDP
% Gross Debt to GDP Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
GrossDe
bttoGDP%
GrossD
ebt%YoY
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Income12 Month Totals Gross Debt to GDP
% Gross Debt to GDP %YoY Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
18/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
PublicNewIssuancetoSavings%
PublicNewIs
suance$Millions
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings12 Month Totals Public Debt New Issuance to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings
% Public NI to NPS % Public NI to GPS $12mo Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
19/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
PublicNewIssuancetoSavings%
PublicNew
Issuance%YoY
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings12 Month Totals Public Debt New Issuance to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings
% Public NI to NPS % Public NI to GPS %YoY Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
20/53
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
21/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
PublicHeldD
ebttoSavings%
PublicHeldDebt%YoY
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings12 Month Totals Public Debt to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings
% Public Debt to NPS % Public Debt to GPS %YoY Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
22/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-1600000
-1400000
-1200000
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
Defic
it$Millions
Receipts/O
utlays$Millions
US Government Receipts Outlays Deficit
Annual Fiscals
Deficit Receipts Outlays
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
23/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-1600000
-1400000
-1200000
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Defic
it$Millions
Receipts/
Outlays%YoY
US Government Receipts Outlays Deficit
% Change YoY Annual Fiscal Recepits Outlays vs Deficit
Deficit %YoY Receipts %YoY Outlays
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
24/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
GrossNewIssuance$Millions
GrossD
ebt$Millions
US Government Gross Treasury Debt
Annual Fiscal New Issuance vs Outstandings
$12mo Gross Debt Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
25/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
GrossDebt%YoY
GrossD
ebt$Millions
US Government Gross Treasury Debt
% Change YoY Outstandings
%YoY Gross Debt Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-500000
-400000
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
AgencyNewIssuance$Millions
Agency/Tru
stDebt$Millions
US Government Agency/Trust Held Treasury Debt
Annual Fiscal New Issuance vs Outstandings
$12mo Agency/Trust Held Agency/Trust
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
Agency/TrustDebt%YoY
Agency/Tru
stDebt$Millions
US Government Agency/Trust Held Treasury Debt
% Change YoY Outstandings
%YoY Agency/Trust Held Agency/Trust
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
PublicNewIssuance$Millions
PublicHeldDebt$Millions
US Government Public Held Treasury Debt
Annual Fiscal New Issuance vs Outstandings
$12mo Held Public Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
29/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
PublicHeldDebt%YoY
PublicHeldDebt$Millions
US Government Public Held Treasury Debt
% YoY Change Outstandings
%YoY Held Public Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
30/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Deb
t%YoY
Composition of US Government Treasury Debt
% YoY Change Outstandings by Holder
%YoY Held Public %YoY Agency/Trust %YoY Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
31/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
GrossInterest$Millions
GrossD
ebt$Millions
US Government Gross Interest Cost
Annual Fiscal Interest Cost vs Debt Outstandings
Gross Interest Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
32/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
GrossIn
terest%YoY
GrossDebt$Millions
US Government Gross Interest Cost
% Change YoY Annual Fiscal Interest Cost vs Debt Outstandings
%YoY Gross Interest Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
YrstoMaturityPublicHeldDebt/%GrossInterestRate%
GrossD
ebt$Millions
US Government Gross Interest Cost
Determinants of Interest Costs on Debt Outstanding
Gross Interest Rate % Average Yrs to Maturity Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
YrstoMaturityPublicHeldDebt/%GrossInterestRate%
GrossDebt%YoY
US Government Gross Interest Cost
Determinants of Interest Costs on Debt Outstanding
Gross Interest Rate % Average Yrs to Maturity %YoY Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
35/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
GrossIn
terestRate%
GrossD
ebt$Millions
US Government Gross Interest Cost
Annual Fiscal Interest Cost Rate vs Debt Outstandings
Gross Interest Rate % Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
36/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
GrossInterestRate%
Gross
Debt%YoY
US Government Gross Interest Cost
Annual Fiscal Interest Cost Rate vs % YoY Change Debt Outstandings
Gross Interest Rate % %YoY Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
YearstoMaturity
PublicHeldDebt$Millions
US Government Public Held Treasury Debt
Average Years to Maturity vs Debt Outstandings
Average Yrs to Maturity Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
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THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
2
4
6
8
10
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
YearstoMaturity
PublicH
eldDebt%YoY
US Government Public Held Treasury Debt
Average Years to Maturity vs % YoY Change Debt Outstandings
Average Yrs to Maturity %YoY Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
39/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
RatioRe
ceiptstoOutlays
Outla
ys$Millions
US Government Coverage Ratios
Receipts to Outlays
Receipts to Outlays Outlays
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
40/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
RatioRe
ceiptstoOutlays
Out
lays%YoY
US Government Coverage Ratios
Receipts to Outlays
Receipts to Outlays %YoY Outlays
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
41/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
RatioGros
sDebttoReceipts
GrossDebt$Millions
US Government Coverage Ratios
Gross Treasury Debt to Receipts
Gross Debt to Receipts Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
42/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
RatioGros
sDebttoReceipts
GrossDebt%YoY
US Government Coverage Ratios
Gross Treasury Debt to Receipts
Gross Debt to Receipts %YoY Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
43/53
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
44/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
RatioReceip
tstoGrossInterest
GrossInte
restCost%YoY
US Government Coverage Ratios
Receipts to Gross Interest Cost
Receipts to Gross Interest %YoY Gross Interest
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
45/53
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
46/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
%Out
laystoGDP
Outla
ys%YoY
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Size of GovernmentOutlays to GDP
% Outlays to GDP %YoY Outlays
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
47/53
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
48/53
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
49/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
GrossD
ebttoGDP%
Gross
Debt%YoY
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National IncomeGross Debt to GDP
% Gross Debt to GDP %YoY Gross Debt
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
50/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
PublicNewIss
uancetoSavings%
PublicNewIssuance$Millions
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National SavingsPublic Debt New Issuance to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings
% Public NI to NPS % Public NI to GPS $12mo Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
51/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
PublicNewIssuancetoSavings%
PublicNew
Issuance%YoY
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National SavingsPublic Debt New Issuance to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings
% Public NI to NPS % Public NI to GPS %YoY Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
52/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
PublicHeldDebttoSavings%
PublicHeldDebt$Millions
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National SavingsPublic Debt to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings
% Public Debt to NPS % Public Debt to GPS Held Public
8/7/2019 Graficos de Deuda USA
53/53
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
PublicHeldDebttoSavings%
PublicHeldDebt%YoY
US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National SavingsPublic Debt to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings
% Public Debt to NPS % Public Debt to GPS %YoY Held Public